Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

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Commodities

<ul>
<li>Bean prices have been oscillating on shifting trade war sentiments. Easing leads to rally followed by pull back in prices when tensions seemingly peak.</li>
<li>Present sentiment remains cautious amid policy uncertainty &amp; robust planting progress, with 84% of the U.S. soybean crop planted as of 1/Jun, above the five-year average of 80%.</li>
<li>Despite the recent pullback in futures, skew (Up Var minus Down Var) has reached a YTD high, signalling market expectations of a spike in bean prices.</li>
</ul>


Bean prices have been oscillating on shifting trade war sentiments. Easing leads to rally followed by pull back in prices when tensions seemingly peak.
Present sentiment remains cautious amid policy uncertainty &amp; robust planting progress, with 84% of the U.S. soybean crop planted as of 1/Jun, above the five-year average of 80%.
Despite the recent pullback in futures, skew (Up Var minus Down Var) has reached a YTD high, signalling market expectations of a spike in bean prices.


Bearishness Persist in Soybeans Despite Rebound Hopes

<ul>
<li>After falling to a 2025 low, Bean prices have rallied strongly to clock a nine-month high. Macro conditions augur well for the rally to be sustained. </li>
<li>Implied vols on bean options have dropped even as prices rise. Spike in skew points to reduced demand for downside risk hinting at upward price buoyancy.  </li>
<li>Technical charts paint a broadly bullish picture with potential for rally ahead remaining intact. However, the bullish momentum might take a breather in the near term.   </li>
</ul>


After falling to a 2025 low, Bean prices have rallied strongly to clock a nine-month high. Macro conditions augur well for the rally to be sustained. 
Implied vols on bean options have dropped even as prices rise. Spike in skew points to reduced demand for downside risk hinting at upward price buoyancy.  
Technical charts paint a broadly bullish picture with potential for rally ahead remaining intact. However, the bullish momentum might take a breather in the near term.   


Soybean Surge: Is the Momentum Ripe for More Gains?

<ul>
<li>Recent acreage report shows benign planting figures and solid ending stocks for Corn sending its prices lower. Wheat also declined on higher stocks, while Soybeans rebounded.</li>
<li>Wheat faces headwinds &amp; tailwinds. Fundamentals are dragged down by favorable weather in exporting countries &amp; imminent US harvest; Strong US demand &amp; weak EU forecast has supported prices.</li>
<li>Soybeans appear well supported from an unlikely ally in Trump. Import Duty tit-for-tat could see China slapping duty on Soy imports.</li>
</ul>


Recent acreage report shows benign planting figures and solid ending stocks for Corn sending its prices lower. Wheat also declined on higher stocks, while Soybeans rebounded.
Wheat faces headwinds &amp; tailwinds. Fundamentals are dragged down by favorable weather in exporting countries &amp; imminent US harvest; Strong US demand &amp; weak EU forecast has supported prices.
Soybeans appear well supported from an unlikely ally in Trump. Import Duty tit-for-tat could see China slapping duty on Soy imports.


[CB 27/2024] Wheat & Bean Up on Improving Demand as Corn Tumbles on Benign Planting & Solid Harvest

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

<ul>
<li>Depressed Soybean crush margin to deal a further blow to Soybean demand.</li>
<li>The outlook for Soy Meal and Soy Oil is better than the outlook for Soybean.</li>
<li>Important production guidance updates from CONAB and USDA this week. Expectations point to lower production and lower consumption. </li>
</ul>


Depressed Soybean crush margin to deal a further blow to Soybean demand.
The outlook for Soy Meal and Soy Oil is better than the outlook for Soybean.
Important production guidance updates from CONAB and USDA this week. Expectations point to lower production and lower consumption. 


[Counting Beans #7] Collapse in Crush Margins Yet Another Blow for Soybean

<ul>
<li>Soybean continues to face bearish outlook with supply surplus and lagging demand.</li>
<li>Soybean price reached a 2-year low this month, with some using the bargain prices as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>US exports lag but recent uptick in large export sales suggests the availability of buyers at these prices.</li>
</ul>


Soybean continues to face bearish outlook with supply surplus and lagging demand.
Soybean price reached a 2-year low this month, with some using the bargain prices as a buying opportunity.
US exports lag but recent uptick in large export sales suggests the availability of buyers at these prices.


[Counting Beans #6] Soybean Outlook Remains Bearish but Bargain Buying Offers Support.

Price Gauge
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Soybean Active Contract (S A COMDTY)

Bearishness Persist in Soybeans Despite Rebound Hopes

Bean prices fluctuate with trade war sentiments. Outlook remains cautious due to policy uncertainty and strong planting progress.

Mint Finance

Soybean Surge: Is the Momentum Ripe for More Gains?

Bean prices have surged to a 9-month high, supported by favorable macro conditions & reduced demand for downside risk. Technicals signal potential...

Mint Finance

[CB 27/2024] Wheat & Bean Up on Improving Demand as Corn Tumbles on Benign Planting & Solid Harvest

Corn prices down 3% last week. Wheat prices cropped up 1.65%. Soybean prices were up 1.79% on fears of trade war escalation.

Mint Finance

[Counting Beans #7] Collapse in Crush Margins Yet Another Blow for Soybean

Depressed soybean crush margin another blow for soybean demand, while soy meal and soy oil have a better outlook. Important production updates...

Mint Finance

[Counting Beans #6] Soybean Outlook Remains Bearish but Bargain Buying Offers Support.

Soybean prices hit a 2-year low due to surplus supply and weak demand, but recent export sales indicate potential buyers taking advantage of the...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bearishness Persist in Soybeans Despite Rebound Hopes

​Bean prices fluctuate with trade war sentiments. Outlook remains cautious due to policy uncertainty and strong planting progress.

Mint Finance

Soybean Surge: Is the Momentum Ripe for More Gains?

​Bean prices have surged to a 9-month high, supported by favorable macro conditions & reduced demand for downside risk. Technicals signal potential...

Mint Finance

[CB 27/2024] Wheat & Bean Up on Improving Demand as Corn Tumbles on Benign Planting & Solid Harvest

Corn prices down 3% last week. Wheat prices cropped up 1.65%. Soybean prices were up 1.79% on fears of trade war escalation.

Mint Finance

[Counting Beans #7] Collapse in Crush Margins Yet Another Blow for Soybean

​Depressed soybean crush margin another blow for soybean demand, while soy meal and soy oil have a better outlook. Important production updates...

Mint Finance

[Counting Beans #6] Soybean Outlook Remains Bearish but Bargain Buying Offers Support.

​Soybean prices hit a 2-year low due to surplus supply and weak demand, but recent export sales indicate potential buyers taking advantage of the...

Mint Finance

Bean prices fluctuate with trade war sentiments. Outlook remains cautious due to policy uncertainty and strong planting progress.

Bean prices have surged to a 9-month high, supported by favorable macro conditions & reduced demand for downside risk. Technicals signal potential...

Depressed soybean crush margin another blow for soybean demand, while soy meal and soy oil have a better outlook. Important production updates...

Soybean prices hit a 2-year low due to surplus supply and weak demand, but recent export sales indicate potential buyers taking advantage of the...