Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>US Soybean futures have tumbled 4% from their close in 2023 due to favourable weather in Brazil as well as fading demand outlook in US.</li>
<li>Rainfall in Brazil has arrived in droves and remains strong this week but forecasts point to inconsistent rain next week.</li>
<li>CONAB and USDA reports this week should be watched for potential downward revisions in Brazil's production, following Safras e Mercado's lead.</li>
</ul>


US Soybean futures have tumbled 4% from their close in 2023 due to favourable weather in Brazil as well as fading demand outlook in US.
Rainfall in Brazil has arrived in droves and remains strong this week but forecasts point to inconsistent rain next week.
CONAB and USDA reports this week should be watched for potential downward revisions in Brazil's production, following Safras e Mercado's lead.


[Counting Beans #4]: Soybean Price Tumbles as Headwinds Prevail

<ul>
<li>Brazil’s weather forecast remains mixed on showers with heavy rains to arrive only in January. Rainfall in Brazil’s key agricultural region.</li>
<li>U.S. soybean net sales show a significant uptick, but recent lack of large export sales could signal a slowdown in demand.</li>
<li>Asset managers reduce long positions in soybean futures and options, showing a shift towards a bearish market outlook but prices remain resilient above USc 1,300.</li>
</ul>


Brazil’s weather forecast remains mixed on showers with heavy rains to arrive only in January. Rainfall in Brazil’s key agricultural region.
U.S. soybean net sales show a significant uptick, but recent lack of large export sales could signal a slowdown in demand.
Asset managers reduce long positions in soybean futures and options, showing a shift towards a bearish market outlook but prices remain resilient above USc 1,300.


[Counting Beans #3]: Soybean Price Remains Solid But Headwinds On The Horizon

<ul>
<li>Soybean futures maintained above USc 1,300/bushel indicating continued strong support at the level.</li>
<li>Large export sales announcements continued over the last week, through November, net Soybean sales from the US were higher than their 5Y average. December pace remains strong too.</li>
<li>CONAB cut production forecast for Soybean in Brazil due to unfavorable weather over November. Weather has improved recently with rains expected in key agricultural region.</li>
</ul>


Soybean futures maintained above USc 1,300/bushel indicating continued strong support at the level.
Large export sales announcements continued over the last week, through November, net Soybean sales from the US were higher than their 5Y average. December pace remains strong too.
CONAB cut production forecast for Soybean in Brazil due to unfavorable weather over November. Weather has improved recently with rains expected in key agricultural region.


[Counting Beans #2] Soybean Prices Maintain Support at USc 1,300

<ul>
<li>Research shows that El Niño results in milder weather leading to higher precipitation and consequently ~3.5% higher yield leading to depressed bean prices.</li>
<li>Bean prices have outperformed seasonal trends in November and December. It is surprising given surplus inventory outlook and El Niño effect on production.</li>
<li>Notifications of large export sales have driven much of the bullishness in prices over the past week. Prices are up 1.7% from last Friday’s settlement prices.</li>
</ul>


Research shows that El Niño results in milder weather leading to higher precipitation and consequently ~3.5% higher yield leading to depressed bean prices.
Bean prices have outperformed seasonal trends in November and December. It is surprising given surplus inventory outlook and El Niño effect on production.
Notifications of large export sales have driven much of the bullishness in prices over the past week. Prices are up 1.7% from last Friday’s settlement prices.


[Counting Beans #1] Robust Soybean Exports Driving Prices Higher Despite Record Harvest

<ul>
<li>Brazil’s weather is set to improve with forecasts suggesting milder weather and rainfall; This alleviates concerns over Brazilian Soy crop.</li>
<li>Seasonal trends during El Niño years differ: Soybean provides negative returns in December-February. Worsening El Niño likely to lead to more favorable conditions for Brazilian Soy crop.</li>
<li>Technicals point to price reversal and bearish outlook. Options OI and futures positioning per COT report reaffirms bearish outlook. </li>
</ul>


Brazil’s weather is set to improve with forecasts suggesting milder weather and rainfall; This alleviates concerns over Brazilian Soy crop.
Seasonal trends during El Niño years differ: Soybean provides negative returns in December-February. Worsening El Niño likely to lead to more favorable conditions for Brazilian Soy crop.
Technicals point to price reversal and bearish outlook. Options OI and futures positioning per COT report reaffirms bearish outlook. 


Solid Brazilian Rains Dampen Soybean Prices

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Soybean Active Contract (S A COMDTY)

[Counting Beans #4]: Soybean Price Tumbles as Headwinds Prevail

US soybean futures drop 4% as headwinds prevail. Headwinds expected to persist but potential for a correction over the next week as traders watch...

Mint Finance

[Counting Beans #3]: Soybean Price Remains Solid But Headwinds On The Horizon

Soybean price remains strong above support levels but bearish factors on the horizon in the form of lower demand for US bean and higher supply...

Mint Finance

[Counting Beans #2] Soybean Prices Maintain Support at USc 1,300

Soybean futures remain strong with high export sales. CONAB cuts Brazil Soy production forecast due to unfavorable weather, weather has now...

Mint Finance

[Counting Beans #1] Robust Soybean Exports Driving Prices Higher Despite Record Harvest

El Niño is known to bowl curved balls. Weather volatility is feeding in soybean price gyrations. Despite record harvests, continued Chinese bean...

Mint Finance

Solid Brazilian Rains Dampen Soybean Prices

Improved weather in Brazil is expected to benefit the soy crop, alleviating concerns, while worsening El Niño conditions counterintuitively result...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Counting Beans #4]: Soybean Price Tumbles as Headwinds Prevail

​US soybean futures drop 4% as headwinds prevail. Headwinds expected to persist but potential for a correction over the next week as traders watch...

Mint Finance

[Counting Beans #3]: Soybean Price Remains Solid But Headwinds On The Horizon

Soybean price remains strong above support levels but bearish factors on the horizon in the form of lower demand for US bean and higher supply...

Mint Finance

[Counting Beans #2] Soybean Prices Maintain Support at USc 1,300

​Soybean futures remain strong with high export sales. CONAB cuts Brazil Soy production forecast due to unfavorable weather, weather has now...

Mint Finance

[Counting Beans #1] Robust Soybean Exports Driving Prices Higher Despite Record Harvest

El Niño is known to bowl curved balls. Weather volatility is feeding in soybean price gyrations. Despite record harvests, continued Chinese bean...

Mint Finance

Solid Brazilian Rains Dampen Soybean Prices

​Improved weather in Brazil is expected to benefit the soy crop, alleviating concerns, while worsening El Niño conditions counterintuitively result...

Mint Finance

US soybean futures drop 4% as headwinds prevail. Headwinds expected to persist but potential for a correction over the next week as traders watch...

Soybean futures remain strong with high export sales. CONAB cuts Brazil Soy production forecast due to unfavorable weather, weather has now...

Improved weather in Brazil is expected to benefit the soy crop, alleviating concerns, while worsening El Niño conditions counterintuitively result...