Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Latest WASDE report reaffirmed market’s bearish outlook. Inventories of corn, wheat, and soybean are ample.</li>
<li>Asset managers are positioned heavily bearish on corn, wheat, and soybean. Wheat positioning is the least bearish.</li>
<li>Futures for corn, wheat, and soybean fell after WASDE release with corn futures underperforming. </li>
</ul>


Latest WASDE report reaffirmed market’s bearish outlook. Inventories of corn, wheat, and soybean are ample.
Asset managers are positioned heavily bearish on corn, wheat, and soybean. Wheat positioning is the least bearish.
Futures for corn, wheat, and soybean fell after WASDE release with corn futures underperforming. 


[Counting Beans #5]: January WASDE Reaffirms Market’s Bearish Outlook

Commodities

<ul>
<li>US Soybean futures have tumbled 4% from their close in 2023 due to favourable weather in Brazil as well as fading demand outlook in US.</li>
<li>Rainfall in Brazil has arrived in droves and remains strong this week but forecasts point to inconsistent rain next week.</li>
<li>CONAB and USDA reports this week should be watched for potential downward revisions in Brazil's production, following Safras e Mercado's lead.</li>
</ul>


US Soybean futures have tumbled 4% from their close in 2023 due to favourable weather in Brazil as well as fading demand outlook in US.
Rainfall in Brazil has arrived in droves and remains strong this week but forecasts point to inconsistent rain next week.
CONAB and USDA reports this week should be watched for potential downward revisions in Brazil's production, following Safras e Mercado's lead.


[Counting Beans #4]: Soybean Price Tumbles as Headwinds Prevail

<ul>
<li>Brazil’s weather forecast remains mixed on showers with heavy rains to arrive only in January. Rainfall in Brazil’s key agricultural region.</li>
<li>U.S. soybean net sales show a significant uptick, but recent lack of large export sales could signal a slowdown in demand.</li>
<li>Asset managers reduce long positions in soybean futures and options, showing a shift towards a bearish market outlook but prices remain resilient above USc 1,300.</li>
</ul>


Brazil’s weather forecast remains mixed on showers with heavy rains to arrive only in January. Rainfall in Brazil’s key agricultural region.
U.S. soybean net sales show a significant uptick, but recent lack of large export sales could signal a slowdown in demand.
Asset managers reduce long positions in soybean futures and options, showing a shift towards a bearish market outlook but prices remain resilient above USc 1,300.


[Counting Beans #3]: Soybean Price Remains Solid But Headwinds On The Horizon

<ul>
<li>Soybean futures maintained above USc 1,300/bushel indicating continued strong support at the level.</li>
<li>Large export sales announcements continued over the last week, through November, net Soybean sales from the US were higher than their 5Y average. December pace remains strong too.</li>
<li>CONAB cut production forecast for Soybean in Brazil due to unfavorable weather over November. Weather has improved recently with rains expected in key agricultural region.</li>
</ul>


Soybean futures maintained above USc 1,300/bushel indicating continued strong support at the level.
Large export sales announcements continued over the last week, through November, net Soybean sales from the US were higher than their 5Y average. December pace remains strong too.
CONAB cut production forecast for Soybean in Brazil due to unfavorable weather over November. Weather has improved recently with rains expected in key agricultural region.


[Counting Beans #2] Soybean Prices Maintain Support at USc 1,300

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.</li><li>But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?</li><li>We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.</li></ul>

Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

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Soybean Active Contract (S A COMDTY)

[Counting Beans #5]: January WASDE Reaffirms Market’s Bearish Outlook

The latest WASDE report reaffirmed market’s bearish outlook. Market metrics are positioned for Soybean, Wheat, and Corn prices to decline from...

Mint Finance

[Counting Beans #4]: Soybean Price Tumbles as Headwinds Prevail

US soybean futures drop 4% as headwinds prevail. Headwinds expected to persist but potential for a correction over the next week as traders watch...

Mint Finance

[Counting Beans #3]: Soybean Price Remains Solid But Headwinds On The Horizon

Soybean price remains strong above support levels but bearish factors on the horizon in the form of lower demand for US bean and higher supply...

Mint Finance

[Counting Beans #2] Soybean Prices Maintain Support at USc 1,300

Soybean futures remain strong with high export sales. CONAB cuts Brazil Soy production forecast due to unfavorable weather, weather has now...

Mint Finance

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Counting Beans #5]: January WASDE Reaffirms Market’s Bearish Outlook

The latest WASDE report reaffirmed market’s bearish outlook. Market metrics are positioned for Soybean, Wheat, and Corn prices to decline from...

Mint Finance

[Counting Beans #4]: Soybean Price Tumbles as Headwinds Prevail

​US soybean futures drop 4% as headwinds prevail. Headwinds expected to persist but potential for a correction over the next week as traders watch...

Mint Finance

[Counting Beans #3]: Soybean Price Remains Solid But Headwinds On The Horizon

Soybean price remains strong above support levels but bearish factors on the horizon in the form of lower demand for US bean and higher supply...

Mint Finance

[Counting Beans #2] Soybean Prices Maintain Support at USc 1,300

​Soybean futures remain strong with high export sales. CONAB cuts Brazil Soy production forecast due to unfavorable weather, weather has now...

Mint Finance

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

US soybean futures drop 4% as headwinds prevail. Headwinds expected to persist but potential for a correction over the next week as traders watch...

Soybean futures remain strong with high export sales. CONAB cuts Brazil Soy production forecast due to unfavorable weather, weather has now...