Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> was trending lower on expectations of deletion from a global index in August. Short interest has jumped a lot over the last few months.</li>
<li>The announcement of the buyback last week took the stock higher. The increased real float from the index deletion will be offset by the buyback.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a>'s ownership of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> will increase from 82% to 83.5% following the buyback and cancellation of the shares. Privatisation at some point?</li>
</ul>



Swire Properties (1972 HK) was trending lower on expectations of deletion from a global index in August. Short interest has jumped a lot over the last few months.
The announcement of the buyback last week took the stock higher. The increased real float from the index deletion will be offset by the buyback.

Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)'s ownership of Swire Properties (1972 HK) will increase from 82% to 83.5% following the buyback and cancellation of the shares. Privatisation at some point?


Swire Properties (1972 HK): Buyback to Offset Passive Selling

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Oct 25th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK), Swire Properties (1972 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Meituan (3690 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Oct 25th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK), Swire Properties (1972 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Meituan (3690 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Oct 25th): AIA, Swire Pacific, Swire Properties

<ul>
<li>The steady selloff in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> could result in the stock being deleted from global passive portfolios in the next couple of months.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> trades marginally cheaper than its similar sized peers on forward PE and price to book value.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> owns 82% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> and a big drop in the stock price could see them step in.</li>
</ul>


The steady selloff in Swire Properties (1972 HK) could result in the stock being deleted from global passive portfolios in the next couple of months.

Swire Properties (1972 HK) trades marginally cheaper than its similar sized peers on forward PE and price to book value.

Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) owns 82% of Swire Properties (1972 HK) and a big drop in the stock price could see them step in.


Swire Properties (1972 HK): Potential Passive Selling & Trade Ideas

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>RTHK just reporting that HK Finance Secretary Paul Chan has said in his budget speech that HK will remove all property cooling measures in place, with immediate effect. </li>
<li>That would be That is Special Stamp Duty, Buyer's Stamp Duty, New Residential Stamp Duty. "Measures no longer necessary given the current economic and market conditions."</li>
<li>This should cause people to get excited short-term about property developers.</li>
</ul>


RTHK just reporting that HK Finance Secretary Paul Chan has said in his budget speech that HK will remove all property cooling measures in place, with immediate effect. 
That would be That is Special Stamp Duty, Buyer's Stamp Duty, New Residential Stamp Duty. "Measures no longer necessary given the current economic and market conditions."
This should cause people to get excited short-term about property developers.


Hong Kong To Scrap All "Spicy Measures" (Property Cooling Measures)

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>A double dose of StubWorld this week. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</strong></a>'s P/B is back down to 0.31x as <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific (293 HK)</a></strong> tackles alleged language bias by flight attendants.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Japan Post are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


A double dose of StubWorld this week. Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)'s P/B is back down to 0.31x as Cathay Pacific (293 HK) tackles alleged language bias by flight attendants.
Preceding my comments on Japan Post are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Swire Drifts Lower As Cathay Faces Discrimination Claim

Hong Kong

Swire Properties Limited develops and manages commercial, retail, and residential properties. The Company's investment portfolio includes office and retail premises, and serviced apartments and other residential accommodation.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Swire Properties (1972 HK)