Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Swire Properties is one of the largest office and retail landlords in HK.  Office is facing headwind despite should see recovery in the long-term.  HK retail is recovering.</li>
<li>Swire announced to spend 100bn to expand its portfolio in terms of capital management, yet it did not announce a share buyback that many investors would like to see</li>
<li>Lack of share buyback, with weak HK office and China retail, could drag Swire’s share price.  Despite we see value in the stock, it could remain as value trap</li>
</ul>


Swire Properties is one of the largest office and retail landlords in HK.  Office is facing headwind despite should see recovery in the long-term.  HK retail is recovering.
Swire announced to spend 100bn to expand its portfolio in terms of capital management, yet it did not announce a share buyback that many investors would like to see
Lack of share buyback, with weak HK office and China retail, could drag Swire’s share price.  Despite we see value in the stock, it could remain as value trap


Swire Prop 1972 HK: HK Office & China Retail Can Be Double Drag, No Share Buyback & Lack of Catalyst

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>RTHK just reporting that HK Finance Secretary Paul Chan has said in his budget speech that HK will remove all property cooling measures in place, with immediate effect. </li>
<li>That would be That is Special Stamp Duty, Buyer's Stamp Duty, New Residential Stamp Duty. "Measures no longer necessary given the current economic and market conditions."</li>
<li>This should cause people to get excited short-term about property developers.</li>
</ul>


RTHK just reporting that HK Finance Secretary Paul Chan has said in his budget speech that HK will remove all property cooling measures in place, with immediate effect. 
That would be That is Special Stamp Duty, Buyer's Stamp Duty, New Residential Stamp Duty. "Measures no longer necessary given the current economic and market conditions."
This should cause people to get excited short-term about property developers.


Hong Kong To Scrap All "Spicy Measures" (Property Cooling Measures)

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>A double dose of StubWorld this week. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a>'s P/B is back down to 0.31x as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific (293 HK)</a> tackles alleged language bias by flight attendants.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Japan Post are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


A double dose of StubWorld this week. Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)'s P/B is back down to 0.31x as Cathay Pacific (293 HK) tackles alleged language bias by flight attendants.
Preceding my comments on Japan Post are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Swire Drifts Lower As Cathay Faces Discrimination Claim

<ul>
<li>After Hong Kong announced abandoning hotel quarantine for inbound travellers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific (293 HK)</a> gained 2.6% last Friday, but finished up just 1%. That probably sums up the situation.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Cathay and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


After Hong Kong announced abandoning hotel quarantine for inbound travellers, Cathay Pacific (293 HK) gained 2.6% last Friday, but finished up just 1%. That probably sums up the situation.
Preceding my comments on Cathay and Swire Pacific (19 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Swire/Cathay And Hong Kong's "Opening"

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

In this year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a> (CDFC) has been affected by the on-and-off scattered local COVID-19 cases that negatively impacted duty free sales. The outbreak in Jiangsu, Henan and Hunan in Aug has impaired the traditional peak summer season for the company. However, we see some recent developments to be relatively positive, and we updated our earnings expectations for CDFC which still projects phenomenal growth in next two years. Lately, six of its subsidiaries in Hainan have confirmed to enjoy preferential tax rate of 15% starting 1 Jan 2020, and the retrospective impact will be reflected in 3Q21, and such positive tax benefits will continue until FY24. Also, the negative impact of tourists arrival in Aug seems to be less adverse than expected. And finally, initial Golden Week sales figures for Hainan duty free showed an increase of 75% YoY in the first five days, and this is an encouraging sign of the pick-up in CDFC's business momentum.

In this year, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) (CDFC) has been affected by the on-and-off scattered local COVID-19 cases that negatively impacted duty free sales. The outbreak in Jiangsu, Henan and Hunan in Aug has impaired the traditional peak summer season for the company. However, we see some recent developments to be relatively positive, and we updated our earnings expectations for CDFC which still projects phenomenal growth in next two years. Lately, six of its subsidiaries in Hainan have confirmed to enjoy preferential tax rate of 15% starting 1 Jan 2020, and the retrospective impact will be reflected in 3Q21, and such positive tax benefits will continue until FY24. Also, the negative impact of tourists arrival in Aug seems to be less adverse than expected. And finally, initial Golden Week sales figures for Hainan duty free showed an increase of 75% YoY in the first five days, and this is an encouraging sign of the pick-up in CDFC's business momentum. 

CTG Duty Free (601888 CH): Latest Updates - Taxes, Tourists & Golden Week

Hong Kong

Swire Properties Limited develops and manages commercial, retail, and residential properties. The Company's investment portfolio includes office and retail premises, and serviced apartments and other residential accommodation.

Swire Properties (1972 HK)

Hong Kong To Scrap All "Spicy Measures" (Property Cooling Measures)

HK Finance Secretary has introduced the 2024-2025 Budget. All "spicy measures" (property cooling measures) are now lifted. This should push the...

Travis Lundy

StubWorld: Swire Drifts Lower As Cathay Faces Discrimination Claim

I prefer Pac here over Props, but it's not a high-conviction trade. Given the rebound, you could probably look to unwind a long Swire Pac (B) vs...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Swire/Cathay And Hong Kong's "Opening"

I still like Swire Pac at 0.33x P/B, but it's had a great run after the buyback. If you had the trade on - long Swire Pac, Short Prop - I'd look to...

David Blennerhassett

CTG Duty Free (601888 CH): Latest Updates - Taxes, Tourists & Golden Week

CDFC has a tough Aug due to the local COVID-19 cases, but recent news flow including lower tax rates, less serious decline in tourists arrivals and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Swire Prop 1972 HK: HK Office & China Retail Can Be Double Drag, No Share Buyback & Lack of Catalyst

Swire Prop could see headwind from HK office and China retail. Company did not announce share buyback that investors would like to see. Despite...

Jacob Cheng

Hong Kong To Scrap All "Spicy Measures" (Property Cooling Measures)

HK Finance Secretary has introduced the 2024-2025 Budget. All "spicy measures" (property cooling measures) are now lifted. This should push the...

Travis Lundy

StubWorld: Swire Drifts Lower As Cathay Faces Discrimination Claim

I prefer Pac here over Props, but it's not a high-conviction trade. Given the rebound, you could probably look to unwind a long Swire Pac (B) vs...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Swire/Cathay And Hong Kong's "Opening"

I still like Swire Pac at 0.33x P/B, but it's had a great run after the buyback. If you had the trade on - long Swire Pac, Short Prop - I'd look to...

David Blennerhassett

CTG Duty Free (601888 CH): Latest Updates - Taxes, Tourists & Golden Week

CDFC has a tough Aug due to the local COVID-19 cases, but recent news flow including lower tax rates, less serious decline in tourists arrivals and...

Osbert Tang, CFA