Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Samsung’s potential Intel stake highlights need for packaging know-how, not customers, and provides a hedge if its 2nm yields or production slip.</li>
<li>TSMC extends lead with stable N3, on-track N2, AI packaging dominance, and customer migrations, while Samsung’s foundry share declines below 8%.</li>
<li>Implications: Positive for TSMC (2330 TT), negative signal for Samsung (005930 KS), validating for Intel (INTC US) though regulatory and governance constraints remain important.</li>
</ul>


Samsung’s potential Intel stake highlights need for packaging know-how, not customers, and provides a hedge if its 2nm yields or production slip.
TSMC extends lead with stable N3, on-track N2, AI packaging dominance, and customer migrations, while Samsung’s foundry share declines below 8%.
Implications: Positive for TSMC (2330 TT), negative signal for Samsung (005930 KS), validating for Intel (INTC US) though regulatory and governance constraints remain important.


Samsung’s Intel Gambit: A Signal of TSMC’s Widening Lead

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +21.8% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Fresh Short of the Spread</li>
<li>UMC: -0.6% Discount; Wait for More Extreme ADR Spread Level</li>
<li>ASE: +0.4% Premium; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +21.8% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Fresh Short of the Spread
UMC: -0.6% Discount; Wait for More Extreme ADR Spread Level
ASE: +0.4% Premium; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains Elevated; ASE Drops Down to Near Parity

<ul>
<li>Apple Secures Over Half of TSMC’s Cutting-Edge 2nm Capacity; How TSMC Anchors Apple’s Product Leadership Strategy</li>
<li>NVIDIA Results Key Take-Away: Long-Reasoning AI Models Driving Massive Compute Demand</li>
<li>Intel (INTC.US): Intel–U.S. Government Equity Deal: Implications and Industry Perspective </li>
</ul>


Apple Secures Over Half of TSMC’s Cutting-Edge 2nm Capacity; How TSMC Anchors Apple’s Product Leadership Strategy
NVIDIA Results Key Take-Away: Long-Reasoning AI Models Driving Massive Compute Demand
Intel (INTC.US): Intel–U.S. Government Equity Deal: Implications and Industry Perspective 


Taiwan Teck Weekly: Apple Snags Over Half of TSMC's Best Chips; Long-Reasoning AI Will Surge Compute

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>From mid-Feb-25 to yesterday, MTK's stock has declined -18% versus TSM -25%. Similar enough.  But Mediatek is trading at average forward PEx 16.6x whereas TSMC is cheap at 12.8x. </li>
<li>Consensus forecasts more growth for TSM over 2025-27, a strong 2025 with EPS up 33%. Less growth for MTK, a slow 2025 with EPS up 9%. Why MTK more expensive? </li>
<li>Higher growth but lower PEx, how much risk in TSM earnings? Low valuations could reflect a misunderstanding on the impact of US import tariffs. </li>
</ul>


From mid-Feb-25 to yesterday, MTK's stock has declined -18% versus TSM -25%. Similar enough.  But Mediatek is trading at average forward PEx 16.6x whereas TSMC is cheap at 12.8x. 
Consensus forecasts more growth for TSM over 2025-27, a strong 2025 with EPS up 33%. Less growth for MTK, a slow 2025 with EPS up 9%. Why MTK more expensive? 
Higher growth but lower PEx, how much risk in TSM earnings? Low valuations could reflect a misunderstanding on the impact of US import tariffs. 


Is the Valuations Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +25.6% Premium: Latest Spike is Opportunity to Short the ADR Spread</li>
<li>UMC: +2.0% Premium; Near Level to Go Short the ADR Spread</li>
<li>ASE: +5.1% Premium; Good Level to Take Profits on Previous Long Since Parity</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +25.6% Premium: Latest Spike is Opportunity to Short the ADR Spread
UMC: +2.0% Premium; Near Level to Go Short the ADR Spread
ASE: +5.1% Premium; Good Level to Take Profits on Previous Long Since Parity


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Spike Opportunity; ASE Hard Bounce to Prem from Discount

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Samsung’s Intel Gambit: A Signal of TSMC’s Widening Lead

Samsung's potential Intel stake underscores the importance of packaging know-how over customers, serving as a hedge for production issues, while...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains Elevated; ASE Drops Down to Near Parity

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Teck Weekly: Apple Snags Over Half of TSMC's Best Chips; Long-Reasoning AI Will Surge Compute

Apple secures majority of TSMC's 2nm capacity, NVIDIA sees demand for AI models, Intel's equity deal with US government raises industry implications.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Is the Valuations Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC

MTK's stock has declined less than TSM's, but TSMC is cheaper with higher growth forecasts. Low valuations for TSM could be due to...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Spike Opportunity; ASE Hard Bounce to Prem from Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Samsung’s Intel Gambit: A Signal of TSMC’s Widening Lead

​Samsung's potential Intel stake underscores the importance of packaging know-how over customers, serving as a hedge for production issues, while...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains Elevated; ASE Drops Down to Near Parity

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Teck Weekly: Apple Snags Over Half of TSMC's Best Chips; Long-Reasoning AI Will Surge Compute

​Apple secures majority of TSMC's 2nm capacity, NVIDIA sees demand for AI models, Intel's equity deal with US government raises industry implications.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Is the Valuations Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC

​MTK's stock has declined less than TSM's, but TSMC is cheaper with higher growth forecasts. Low valuations for TSM could be due to...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Spike Opportunity; ASE Hard Bounce to Prem from Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Samsung's potential Intel stake underscores the importance of packaging know-how over customers, serving as a hedge for production issues, while...

Apple secures majority of TSMC's 2nm capacity, NVIDIA sees demand for AI models, Intel's equity deal with US government raises industry implications.

MTK's stock has declined less than TSM's, but TSMC is cheaper with higher growth forecasts. Low valuations for TSM could be due to...