Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +22.8% Premium; ADR Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Levels</li>
<li>UMC: -0.8% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Levels; Short Interest in ADRs Falling</li>
<li>ASE: -0.1% Discount; Continued Opportunity to Go Long the ADR Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +22.8% Premium; ADR Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Levels
UMC: -0.8% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Levels; Short Interest in ADRs Falling
ASE: -0.1% Discount; Continued Opportunity to Go Long the ADR Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains Extreme; UMC ADR Short Interest Falling

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.</li>
<li>Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.</li>
<li>In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.
Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.
In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.


As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

<ul>
<li>U.S. 2nm Production May Begin Sooner Than Expected — Is TSMC Responding to Unprecedented N2 Demand?</li>
<li>Hyperscalers 2Q25: Revenue Growth Accelerates, Cloud Revenues Accelerate, Capex Higher </li>
<li>TechChain Insights: Taiwan’s Battery Cell Moment? USA &amp; EU Supply Chain Under Strategic Pressure </li>
</ul>


U.S. 2nm Production May Begin Sooner Than Expected — Is TSMC Responding to Unprecedented N2 Demand?
Hyperscalers 2Q25: Revenue Growth Accelerates, Cloud Revenues Accelerate, Capex Higher 
TechChain Insights: Taiwan’s Battery Cell Moment? USA &amp; EU Supply Chain Under Strategic Pressure 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Arizona Surprise - 2nm by 2026?; Signs of Hyperscaler Growth Acceleration

<ul>
<li>Battery cells are the new chokepoint in the global clean energy supply chain, with China still controlling 75%+ of global capacity and exporting under increasingly restrictive terms.</li>
<li>Taiwan is emerging as a high-trust, high-precision hub for advanced cell manufacturing, applying its semiconductor model to batteries.</li>
<li>With pouch cells gaining traction across drones, robotics, and compact mobility, Taiwan’s lab-to-fab advantage positions it as a future anchor of the U.S. and European energy ecosystems.</li>
</ul>


Battery cells are the new chokepoint in the global clean energy supply chain, with China still controlling 75%+ of global capacity and exporting under increasingly restrictive terms.
Taiwan is emerging as a high-trust, high-precision hub for advanced cell manufacturing, applying its semiconductor model to batteries.
With pouch cells gaining traction across drones, robotics, and compact mobility, Taiwan’s lab-to-fab advantage positions it as a future anchor of the U.S. and European energy ecosystems.


TechChain Insights: Taiwan’s Battery Cell Moment? USA & EU Supply Chain Under Strategic Pressure

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +23.9% Premium; Continued Opportunity to Short the ADR Premium</li>
<li>UMC: -0.4% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short</li>
<li>ASE: -1.5% Discount; Historically Rare Discount Presents Opportunity to Long the ADR Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +23.9% Premium; Continued Opportunity to Short the ADR Premium
UMC: -0.4% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short
ASE: -1.5% Discount; Historically Rare Discount Presents Opportunity to Long the ADR Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Short Setup, ASE ADR at Historically Rare Discount

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains Extreme; UMC ADR Short Interest Falling

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably. However, investors see good news priced in in a...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Arizona Surprise - 2nm by 2026?; Signs of Hyperscaler Growth Acceleration

TSMC may start producing 2nm chips in the U.S. sooner due to high demand, hyperscalers see revenue growth and increased capex, Taiwan's battery...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TechChain Insights: Taiwan’s Battery Cell Moment? USA & EU Supply Chain Under Strategic Pressure

China dominates global battery cell production, but Taiwan's high-trust manufacturing model is positioning it as a key player that can replicate...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Short Setup, ASE ADR at Historically Rare Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains Extreme; UMC ADR Short Interest Falling

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably. However, investors see good news priced in in a...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Arizona Surprise - 2nm by 2026?; Signs of Hyperscaler Growth Acceleration

​TSMC may start producing 2nm chips in the U.S. sooner due to high demand, hyperscalers see revenue growth and increased capex, Taiwan's battery...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TechChain Insights: Taiwan’s Battery Cell Moment? USA & EU Supply Chain Under Strategic Pressure

​China dominates global battery cell production, but Taiwan's high-trust manufacturing model is positioning it as a key player that can replicate...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Short Setup, ASE ADR at Historically Rare Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC may start producing 2nm chips in the U.S. sooner due to high demand, hyperscalers see revenue growth and increased capex, Taiwan's battery...

China dominates global battery cell production, but Taiwan's high-trust manufacturing model is positioning it as a key player that can replicate...