Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported Q225 revenues of $30.1 billion, up 44% YoY, up 17.8% QoQ and handily beating the high end of the $29.2 billion guidance.</li>
<li>Full year 2025 guidance raised to 30% YoY growth, and that may still not be enough</li>
<li>Resumption of H20 sales to China not yet baked into forecast, an army of ex Intel employees coming on the job market &amp; potential Fx reversal are all possible tailwinds</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported Q225 revenues of $30.1 billion, up 44% YoY, up 17.8% QoQ and handily beating the high end of the $29.2 billion guidance.
Full year 2025 guidance raised to 30% YoY growth, and that may still not be enough
Resumption of H20 sales to China not yet baked into forecast, an army of ex Intel employees coming on the job market &amp; potential Fx reversal are all possible tailwinds


TSMC Q225. Surfing The AI Tidal Wave With Style

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC Beats, Raises, and Confirms AI Ramp Is Real, Despite FX Drag</li>
<li>Conclusion -- Maintain Structural Long View, 2026 Growth Likely Underappreciated</li>
<li>TSMC ADR Premium Rebounds to 23.6% -- US Investor Positioning Skewed Toward TSMC's Unique AI Exposure</li>
</ul>


TSMC Beats, Raises, and Confirms AI Ramp Is Real, Despite FX Drag
Conclusion -- Maintain Structural Long View, 2026 Growth Likely Underappreciated
TSMC ADR Premium Rebounds to 23.6% -- US Investor Positioning Skewed Toward TSMC's Unique AI Exposure


TSMC 2Q25 Takeways: Undervalued Op Leverage and Capacity Strain Setting Up 2026 N2 Growth Suprise

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>3Q25 Guidance: Revenue: US$31.8–33.0 billion (approx. 8% QoQ growth); Gross Margin: 55.5–57.5%; Operating Margin: 45.5–47.5%.</li>
<li>Despite FX headwinds, TSMC aims to maintain gross margin ≥ 53%  </li>
<li>Driven by strong demand in AI (including sovereign AI) and HPC; Full-year USD revenue growth outlook raised to ~30% YoY.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 Guidance: Revenue: US$31.8–33.0 billion (approx. 8% QoQ growth); Gross Margin: 55.5–57.5%; Operating Margin: 45.5–47.5%.
Despite FX headwinds, TSMC aims to maintain gross margin ≥ 53%  
Driven by strong demand in AI (including sovereign AI) and HPC; Full-year USD revenue growth outlook raised to ~30% YoY.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): FX Could Make an Impact; Full Year USD Revenue Raised to ~30% YoY.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>NT$ appreciation large impact on revenue / margins but TSMC beats consensus in 2Q, 3Q guidance is in-line. FX impact is partially neutralize by other factors (utilization, cost control) .</li>
<li>This will be controversial: management increase 2025 US$-revenue growth from mid-20 to 30%. Yet, this implies that 4Q25 US$-revenue growth will collapse to 9% YoY and NT$-growth will be negative.</li>
<li>At same time, mngt gives a long list of very positive messages on AI demand, N2 ramp, full utilization of EUV nodes.  This could lead to short-term stock price weakness.</li>
</ul>


NT$ appreciation large impact on revenue / margins but TSMC beats consensus in 2Q, 3Q guidance is in-line. FX impact is partially neutralize by other factors (utilization, cost control) .
This will be controversial: management increase 2025 US$-revenue growth from mid-20 to 30%. Yet, this implies that 4Q25 US$-revenue growth will collapse to 9% YoY and NT$-growth will be negative.
At same time, mngt gives a long list of very positive messages on AI demand, N2 ramp, full utilization of EUV nodes.  This could lead to short-term stock price weakness.


TSMC 2Q25: A Number of Very Positive Messages, Plus a Major Contradiction on 4Q25 Revenue

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +20.6% Premium; FY2Q25 Results This Week a Key Catalyst</li>
<li>UMC: 0.0% Premium (Parity); Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short</li>
<li>ASE: -0.8% Discount; Historically Rare Discount, Long the ADR Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +20.6% Premium; FY2Q25 Results This Week a Key Catalyst
UMC: 0.0% Premium (Parity); Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short
ASE: -0.8% Discount; Historically Rare Discount, Long the ADR Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Results Ahead; ASE Historically Rare Discount

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC Q225. Surfing The AI Tidal Wave With Style

Resumption of H20 sales to China not yet baked into forecast, an army of ex Intel employees coming on the job market & potential US$/NT$ Fx trend...

William Keating

TSMC 2Q25 Takeways: Undervalued Op Leverage and Capacity Strain Setting Up 2026 N2 Growth Suprise

TSMC's strong performance and focus on AI growth is underappreciated, with US investors showing a skewed positioning towards the company's unique...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): FX Could Make an Impact; Full Year USD Revenue Raised to ~30% YoY.

TSMC expects strong revenue growth in 3Q25 despite FX challenges, driven by demand in AI and HPC, aiming to maintain gross margin above 53%. Full...

Patrick Liao

TSMC 2Q25: A Number of Very Positive Messages, Plus a Major Contradiction on 4Q25 Revenue

TSMC beats consensus in 2Q, 3Q guidance in-line despite NT$ appreciation impact. Increase in 2025 US$-revenue growth to 30%, implying a weaker 4Q ...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Results Ahead; ASE Historically Rare Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC Q225. Surfing The AI Tidal Wave With Style

Resumption of H20 sales to China not yet baked into forecast, an army of ex Intel employees coming on the job market & potential US$/NT$ Fx trend...

William Keating

TSMC 2Q25 Takeways: Undervalued Op Leverage and Capacity Strain Setting Up 2026 N2 Growth Suprise

​TSMC's strong performance and focus on AI growth is underappreciated, with US investors showing a skewed positioning towards the company's unique...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): FX Could Make an Impact; Full Year USD Revenue Raised to ~30% YoY.

​TSMC expects strong revenue growth in 3Q25 despite FX challenges, driven by demand in AI and HPC, aiming to maintain gross margin above 53%. Full...

Patrick Liao

TSMC 2Q25: A Number of Very Positive Messages, Plus a Major Contradiction on 4Q25 Revenue

​TSMC beats consensus in 2Q, 3Q guidance in-line despite NT$ appreciation impact. Increase in 2025 US$-revenue growth to 30%, implying a weaker 4Q ...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Results Ahead; ASE Historically Rare Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC's strong performance and focus on AI growth is underappreciated, with US investors showing a skewed positioning towards the company's unique...

TSMC expects strong revenue growth in 3Q25 despite FX challenges, driven by demand in AI and HPC, aiming to maintain gross margin above 53%. Full...

TSMC beats consensus in 2Q, 3Q guidance in-line despite NT$ appreciation impact. Increase in 2025 US$-revenue growth to 30%, implying a weaker 4Q ...