Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>4Q24 beat Consensus by ~4%, 1Q25 guidance ~7% above Consensus at OP level.</li>
<li>2025 revenue up mid-20%. AI revenues will double or more depending on capacity bottlenecks (2023 5%, 2024 15% of total revenues). 2025 Capex US$40bn, from 2024 30bn. </li>
<li>The stock is trading at 18.8x 2025 and 15.8x 2026 Consensus EPS.  This is cheap for the ~25% growth outlook over 2025-26.</li>
</ul>


4Q24 beat Consensus by ~4%, 1Q25 guidance ~7% above Consensus at OP level.
2025 revenue up mid-20%. AI revenues will double or more depending on capacity bottlenecks (2023 5%, 2024 15% of total revenues). 2025 Capex US$40bn, from 2024 30bn. 
The stock is trading at 18.8x 2025 and 15.8x 2026 Consensus EPS.  This is cheap for the ~25% growth outlook over 2025-26.


TSMC Results / Guidance Beat. 2025 Capex and AI Revenue up Strongly.

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Our model recently signaled that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> is overbought. Strangely, it is overbought on the TIME model but not on the PRICE model, a bearish divergence.</li>
<li>On Friday Trump announced that next week he will slap 300% import tariffs on semiconductors imports. TSMC has factories in the United States so in theory it's exempt.</li>
<li>South Korea, Malaysia and Philippines' semiconductor industries are going to be affected the most, leaving TSMC in a very good position BUT <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC</a> IS OVERBOUGHT and will pulback soon.
</li>
</ul>


Our model recently signaled that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) is overbought. Strangely, it is overbought on the TIME model but not on the PRICE model, a bearish divergence.
On Friday Trump announced that next week he will slap 300% import tariffs on semiconductors imports. TSMC has factories in the United States so in theory it's exempt.
South Korea, Malaysia and Philippines' semiconductor industries are going to be affected the most, leaving TSMC in a very good position BUT TSMC IS OVERBOUGHT and will pulback soon.



TSMC’s Outlook After Trump’s 300% Semiconductor Tariff Bombshell

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Leaked Mediatek Chip Specs? -- Talk of a "Qualcomm Killer"</li>
<li>Hon Hai in the New York Times -- Why Foxconn is Investing in Texas &amp; Thailand</li>
<li>TSMC's Arizona 4nm Production On Track to Start 2H25E -- Still Expected to Be 30% Higher Cost vs. Taiwan and That's Okay</li>
</ul>


Leaked Mediatek Chip Specs? -- Talk of a "Qualcomm Killer"
Hon Hai in the New York Times -- Why Foxconn is Investing in Texas &amp; Thailand
TSMC's Arizona 4nm Production On Track to Start 2H25E -- Still Expected to Be 30% Higher Cost vs. Taiwan and That's Okay


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Leaked Mediatek Specs Spur Talk Of "Qualcomm Killer"'; TSMC on Track in Arizona

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> disclosed Board of Directors meeting resolutions today.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> 2nm technology manufacturing information leakage issue.</li>
<li>Currently, only TSMC, Samsung, and Intel have achieved trial production at the 2nm node.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) disclosed Board of Directors meeting resolutions today.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) 2nm technology manufacturing information leakage issue.
Currently, only TSMC, Samsung, and Intel have achieved trial production at the 2nm node.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Board Meeting Resolutions; 2nm Technology Information Leakage Issue.

<ul>
<li>Foxconn Tech invests US$1bn in U.S. robotics, AI, and smart manufacturing over 10 years, expanding into service robotics via RoboTemi stake.</li>
<li>Samsung to surpass US$50bn in U.S. chip investments, adding US$7bn for advanced packaging to compete with TSMC and capture AI/HPC integration opportunities.</li>
<li>Intel faces leadership crisis as CEO Lip Bu Tan’s strategy is criticized; U.S. policy and competitive pressures may accelerate market gains for TSMC and Samsung.</li>
</ul>


Foxconn Tech invests US$1bn in U.S. robotics, AI, and smart manufacturing over 10 years, expanding into service robotics via RoboTemi stake.
Samsung to surpass US$50bn in U.S. chip investments, adding US$7bn for advanced packaging to compete with TSMC and capture AI/HPC integration opportunities.
Intel faces leadership crisis as CEO Lip Bu Tan’s strategy is criticized; U.S. policy and competitive pressures may accelerate market gains for TSMC and Samsung.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Foxconn US$1bn USA Robotics Push; Samsung Doubles Down on US Fabs; Intel Crisis

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC Results / Guidance Beat. 2025 Capex and AI Revenue up Strongly.

Company beats consensus, expects strong growth in 2025 with AI revenues doubling, stock trading at attractive multiples for projected growth.

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC’s Outlook After Trump’s 300% Semiconductor Tariff Bombshell

Despite being immune from Trump's upcoming 300% import tariffs on semiconductors, TSMC is overbought, according to our model. We expect the stock...

Nico Rosti

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Leaked Mediatek Specs Spur Talk Of "Qualcomm Killer"'; TSMC on Track in Arizona

Leaked Mediatek chip specs hint at potential rival to Qualcomm's flagship chips; Foxconn investing in Texas & Thailand; TSMC's Arizona production...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Board Meeting Resolutions; 2nm Technology Information Leakage Issue.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) reveals Board meeting resolutions and 2nm technology manufacturing information leakage issue. TSMC,...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Foxconn US$1bn USA Robotics Push; Samsung Doubles Down on US Fabs; Intel Crisis

Foxconn and Samsung make significant investments in U.S. robotics and chip packaging technology, while Intel faces leadership challenges. TSMC and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC Results / Guidance Beat. 2025 Capex and AI Revenue up Strongly.

​Company beats consensus, expects strong growth in 2025 with AI revenues doubling, stock trading at attractive multiples for projected growth.

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC’s Outlook After Trump’s 300% Semiconductor Tariff Bombshell

​Despite being immune from Trump's upcoming 300% import tariffs on semiconductors, TSMC is overbought, according to our model. We expect the stock...

Nico Rosti

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Leaked Mediatek Specs Spur Talk Of "Qualcomm Killer"'; TSMC on Track in Arizona

​Leaked Mediatek chip specs hint at potential rival to Qualcomm's flagship chips; Foxconn investing in Texas & Thailand; TSMC's Arizona production...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Board Meeting Resolutions; 2nm Technology Information Leakage Issue.

​Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) reveals Board meeting resolutions and 2nm technology manufacturing information leakage issue. TSMC,...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Foxconn US$1bn USA Robotics Push; Samsung Doubles Down on US Fabs; Intel Crisis

​Foxconn and Samsung make significant investments in U.S. robotics and chip packaging technology, while Intel faces leadership challenges. TSMC and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Company beats consensus, expects strong growth in 2025 with AI revenues doubling, stock trading at attractive multiples for projected growth.

Despite being immune from Trump's upcoming 300% import tariffs on semiconductors, TSMC is overbought, according to our model. We expect the stock...

Leaked Mediatek chip specs hint at potential rival to Qualcomm's flagship chips; Foxconn investing in Texas & Thailand; TSMC's Arizona production...

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) reveals Board meeting resolutions and 2nm technology manufacturing information leakage issue. TSMC,...

Foxconn and Samsung make significant investments in U.S. robotics and chip packaging technology, while Intel faces leadership challenges. TSMC and...