Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Q2 revenue US$40.20bn (+36% YoY, +12% QoQ), GM 67.7%, EPS US$4.31 — all above the top end of guidance. FY26 growth guidance raised to above 40% USD, from above 30%.</li>
<li>Capex raised 15% to US$60–64bn; overseas-fab margin dilution guided wider, to 3–4%. No new buyback — capital return still runs through the dividend, up to NT$7.00/share.</li>
<li>Fair Value raised to NT$3,450/US$545 (from NT$3,230/US$510), on updated FY26E EBITDA of about US$125bn at an unchanged 22x multiple. Stance stays Bullish.</li>
</ul>


Q2 revenue US$40.20bn (+36% YoY, +12% QoQ), GM 67.7%, EPS US$4.31 — all above the top end of guidance. FY26 growth guidance raised to above 40% USD, from above 30%.
Capex raised 15% to US$60–64bn; overseas-fab margin dilution guided wider, to 3–4%. No new buyback — capital return still runs through the dividend, up to NT$7.00/share.
Fair Value raised to NT$3,450/US$545 (from NT$3,230/US$510), on updated FY26E EBITDA of about US$125bn at an unchanged 22x multiple. Stance stays Bullish.


TSMC (2330 TW, TSM US) — Q2 2026 Results: Beat & Raise Guidance = Raise Fair Value to NT$3,450

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

<ul>
<li>Third Quarter Revenue: US$44.6 billion – US$45.8 billion, At the midpoint: Quarter-over-quarter; (QoQ): +12% Year-over-year (YoY): +37%;</li>
<li>In other words, the increase in CAPEX is fundamentally driven by AI demand.</li>
<li>The shortage is mainly in AI-related mature technologies, especially: PMIC (Power Management IC)  </li>
</ul>


Third Quarter Revenue: US$44.6 billion – US$45.8 billion, At the midpoint: Quarter-over-quarter; (QoQ): +12% Year-over-year (YoY): +37%;
In other words, the increase in CAPEX is fundamentally driven by AI demand.
The shortage is mainly in AI-related mature technologies, especially: PMIC (Power Management IC)  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): All Good News Doesn't Mean A Good Stock Price.

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Sharp dislocations in Asian markets have opened up relative value trade opportunities. Many Asian markets' valuations are near long-term averages, but some are far more expensive, and some far cheaper.</li>
<li>Going by likely mean reversion, we conclude that Taiwan should correct more while Korea should rerate. The other markets are close to their long-term means, and hence, difficult to call.</li>
<li>In ASEAN, going long Indonesia and Philippines and shorting Singapore could be profitable. Shorting Thailand could be an option too, from the perspective of earnings pressure due to tourism slowdown.</li>
</ul>


Sharp dislocations in Asian markets have opened up relative value trade opportunities. Many Asian markets' valuations are near long-term averages, but some are far more expensive, and some far cheaper.
Going by likely mean reversion, we conclude that Taiwan should correct more while Korea should rerate. The other markets are close to their long-term means, and hence, difficult to call.
In ASEAN, going long Indonesia and Philippines and shorting Singapore could be profitable. Shorting Thailand could be an option too, from the perspective of earnings pressure due to tourism slowdown.


Asian Equities: Relative Value Trades After This Dislocation

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Real GDP grew 8.7% in 2025, after a surge to 12.7%YoY growth in Q4'25. Soaring AI- and cloud-computing demand for semiconductors caused the trade surplus to nearly double in 2025. </li>
<li>Inflation moderated to a 5-year low of 0.67%YoY in Jan'26; the US trade deal will keep inflation tame. We expect 12.5bp rate cuts at both June and September CBC meetings. </li>
<li>We expect 11% real GDP growth in H1'26 and 9% growth for 2026. Stay OVERWEIGHT Taiwan, particularly its world-leading technology sector. </li>
</ul>


Real GDP grew 8.7% in 2025, after a surge to 12.7%YoY growth in Q4'25. Soaring AI- and cloud-computing demand for semiconductors caused the trade surplus to nearly double in 2025. 
Inflation moderated to a 5-year low of 0.67%YoY in Jan'26; the US trade deal will keep inflation tame. We expect 12.5bp rate cuts at both June and September CBC meetings. 
We expect 11% real GDP growth in H1'26 and 9% growth for 2026. Stay OVERWEIGHT Taiwan, particularly its world-leading technology sector. 


Taiwan: Global Growth Leader Is the Genuine Goldilocks Economy

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>A record June (NT$442.68bn, +67.9% YoY) puts fully-reported 2Q26 revenue at NT$1,270.4bn, about US$40.1bn, at the upper end of the US$39.0-40.2bn guide. Revenue is settled pre-print.</li>
<li>The question is now the full-year guide. First-half revenvue is up 35.6% YoY, past the "above 30%" bar; the street implies +37%, so a guide raise is partially baked in.</li>
<li>Also watch whether management repeats the 2-3pp N2 margin dilution and how it frames FY27 capex. At 24.4x forward, TSMC remains relatively inexpensive.</li>
</ul>


A record June (NT$442.68bn, +67.9% YoY) puts fully-reported 2Q26 revenue at NT$1,270.4bn, about US$40.1bn, at the upper end of the US$39.0-40.2bn guide. Revenue is settled pre-print.
The question is now the full-year guide. First-half revenvue is up 35.6% YoY, past the "above 30%" bar; the street implies +37%, so a guide raise is partially baked in.
Also watch whether management repeats the 2-3pp N2 margin dilution and how it frames FY27 capex. At 24.4x forward, TSMC remains relatively inexpensive.


TSMC 2Q26 Preview: A Record June Lands 2Q Revenue at the Upper End of the Guide

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (2330 TW, TSM US) — Q2 2026 Results: Beat & Raise Guidance = Raise Fair Value to NT$3,450

Q2 revenue exceeds expectations, FY26 growth guidance raised, capex increased, no new buyback, fair value raised to NT$3,450/US$545. Bullish...

Mo Aziz

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): All Good News Doesn't Mean A Good Stock Price.

Third quarter revenue for AI-driven technologies sees a significant increase, with CAPEX driven by high demand for AI-related mature technologies...

Patrick Liao

Asian Equities: Relative Value Trades After This Dislocation

Asian markets present relative value trade opportunities due to sharp dislocations in valuations. TW may correct more, KR could rerate. Long Indo...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Taiwan: Global Growth Leader Is the Genuine Goldilocks Economy

RGDP growth surged 8.7% in 2025 as soaring chip demand enabled a near-doubling of the trade surplus. With RGDP growing 9%, inflation at 1% (with...

Prasenjit K. Basu

TSMC 2Q26 Preview: A Record June Lands 2Q Revenue at the Upper End of the Guide

TSMC reports record June revenue, nearing upper end of guidance, with focus now on potential full-year guidance raise and margin impact.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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TSMC (2330 TW, TSM US) — Q2 2026 Results: Beat & Raise Guidance = Raise Fair Value to NT$3,450

​Q2 revenue exceeds expectations, FY26 growth guidance raised, capex increased, no new buyback, fair value raised to NT$3,450/US$545. Bullish...

Mo Aziz

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): All Good News Doesn't Mean A Good Stock Price.

​Third quarter revenue for AI-driven technologies sees a significant increase, with CAPEX driven by high demand for AI-related mature technologies...

Patrick Liao

Asian Equities: Relative Value Trades After This Dislocation

​Asian markets present relative value trade opportunities due to sharp dislocations in valuations. TW may correct more, KR could rerate. Long Indo...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Taiwan: Global Growth Leader Is the Genuine Goldilocks Economy

​RGDP growth surged 8.7% in 2025 as soaring chip demand enabled a near-doubling of the trade surplus. With RGDP growing 9%, inflation at 1% (with...

Prasenjit K. Basu

TSMC 2Q26 Preview: A Record June Lands 2Q Revenue at the Upper End of the Guide

​TSMC reports record June revenue, nearing upper end of guidance, with focus now on potential full-year guidance raise and margin impact.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Q2 revenue exceeds expectations, FY26 growth guidance raised, capex increased, no new buyback, fair value raised to NT$3,450/US$545. Bullish...

Third quarter revenue for AI-driven technologies sees a significant increase, with CAPEX driven by high demand for AI-related mature technologies...

Asian markets present relative value trade opportunities due to sharp dislocations in valuations. TW may correct more, KR could rerate. Long Indo...

RGDP growth surged 8.7% in 2025 as soaring chip demand enabled a near-doubling of the trade surplus. With RGDP growing 9%, inflation at 1% (with...

TSMC reports record June revenue, nearing upper end of guidance, with focus now on potential full-year guidance raise and margin impact.