Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s Tale of Two Fabs: Arizona’s Surprise Upside vs. Kumamoto’s Challenges</li>
<li>A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC</li>
<li>SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem </li>
</ul>


TSMC’s Tale of Two Fabs: Arizona’s Surprise Upside vs. Kumamoto’s Challenges
A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC
SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's US Fabs On a Roll; Why Intel Should Invest in UMC; The Big SPE Reset

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei previously emphasized that customer demand for 2nm technology surpasses that for 3nm, and the company is actively working to expand production capacity. </li>
<li>For 2nm technology, we expect production to take place at the Tainan fab, ahead of the U.S. Arizona fab and earlier than the previously anticipated 2028 timeline.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)'</a>s next generation 2nm development is actively progressing.</li>
</ul>


TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei previously emphasized that customer demand for 2nm technology surpasses that for 3nm, and the company is actively working to expand production capacity. 
For 2nm technology, we expect production to take place at the Tainan fab, ahead of the U.S. Arizona fab and earlier than the previously anticipated 2028 timeline.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)'s next generation 2nm development is actively progressing.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2nm Production Schedule in US Could Be One Year Ahead of Previous Schedule.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Smartphone 2024 small growth about +5% YoY. PC 2024 small unit growth +4%. Don’t expect much better in 2025 but the Silicon content will increase, both for processor and DRAM.</li>
<li>Lots of cuts in 2025 Semiconductor Capex. TSMC is up but Samsung, UMC, Intel down. Japan Semi Equipment association has revised down 2025 growth from 10% to 5%.</li>
<li>Cloud Capex booming. Microsoft announced US$80bn in FY25. Meta at US$60-65bn. TSMC to increase 5-3nm wafer price by 5-10%. The Ai segment of semiconductors is doing extremely well</li>
</ul>


Smartphone 2024 small growth about +5% YoY. PC 2024 small unit growth +4%. Don’t expect much better in 2025 but the Silicon content will increase, both for processor and DRAM.
Lots of cuts in 2025 Semiconductor Capex. TSMC is up but Samsung, UMC, Intel down. Japan Semi Equipment association has revised down 2025 growth from 10% to 5%.
Cloud Capex booming. Microsoft announced US$80bn in FY25. Meta at US$60-65bn. TSMC to increase 5-3nm wafer price by 5-10%. The Ai segment of semiconductors is doing extremely well


Tech News: Smartphone and PC Stabilize. Semicon Capex Cuts. Cloud Capex Up. TSMC Increasing Prices.

<ul>
<li>News or rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting down CoWoS orders at TSMC have been flying around since last week (Taiwan media, some sell-side analysts).</li>
<li>TSMC guided for AI revenues doubling in 2025. Nvidia’s CEO clarified that CoWoS-S orders are declining because CoWoS-L is increasing. This transition has been known for over 1 year.</li>
<li>TSMC is converting CoWoS-S to L and adding capacity in Tainan Science Park phase 2 &amp; 3. In 2024, CoWoS-L was ~10% of CoWoS output, increasing to 50-60% in 2025.</li>
</ul>


News or rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting down CoWoS orders at TSMC have been flying around since last week (Taiwan media, some sell-side analysts).
TSMC guided for AI revenues doubling in 2025. Nvidia’s CEO clarified that CoWoS-S orders are declining because CoWoS-L is increasing. This transition has been known for over 1 year.
TSMC is converting CoWoS-S to L and adding capacity in Tainan Science Park phase 2 &amp; 3. In 2024, CoWoS-L was ~10% of CoWoS output, increasing to 50-60% in 2025.


TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Historically High Short Interest in the Local Begins to Drop?</li>
<li>ASE: -0.4% Discount; Opportunity to Go Long the ADR Premium</li>
<li>UMC: +0.2% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short the Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Historically High Short Interest in the Local Begins to Drop?
ASE: -0.4% Discount; Opportunity to Go Long the ADR Premium
UMC: +0.2% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short the Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Premium Sees Small Breakdown; ASE Discount Long Opportunity

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's US Fabs On a Roll; Why Intel Should Invest in UMC; The Big SPE Reset

TSMC faces challenges in Kumamoto while seeing upside in Arizona, Intel makes a defining bet on UMC, and the semiconductor production equipment...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2nm Production Schedule in US Could Be One Year Ahead of Previous Schedule.

TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei prioritizes 2nm technology over 3nm due to high customer demand, with production expected at Tainan fab ahead of schedule.

Patrick Liao

Tech News: Smartphone and PC Stabilize. Semicon Capex Cuts. Cloud Capex Up. TSMC Increasing Prices.

Smartphone and PC small growth in 2024 and 2025, but Silicon content in processors and DRAM will increase. Semiconductor Capex cuts in 2025. Cloud...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Premium Sees Small Breakdown; ASE Discount Long Opportunity

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's US Fabs On a Roll; Why Intel Should Invest in UMC; The Big SPE Reset

​TSMC faces challenges in Kumamoto while seeing upside in Arizona, Intel makes a defining bet on UMC, and the semiconductor production equipment...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2nm Production Schedule in US Could Be One Year Ahead of Previous Schedule.

​TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei prioritizes 2nm technology over 3nm due to high customer demand, with production expected at Tainan fab ahead of schedule.

Patrick Liao

Tech News: Smartphone and PC Stabilize. Semicon Capex Cuts. Cloud Capex Up. TSMC Increasing Prices.

​Smartphone and PC small growth in 2024 and 2025, but Silicon content in processors and DRAM will increase. Semiconductor Capex cuts in 2025. Cloud...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

​Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Premium Sees Small Breakdown; ASE Discount Long Opportunity

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC faces challenges in Kumamoto while seeing upside in Arizona, Intel makes a defining bet on UMC, and the semiconductor production equipment...

TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei prioritizes 2nm technology over 3nm due to high customer demand, with production expected at Tainan fab ahead of schedule.

Smartphone and PC small growth in 2024 and 2025, but Silicon content in processors and DRAM will increase. Semiconductor Capex cuts in 2025. Cloud...

Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...