Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q24 Performance Signals Advanced Products Making Major Progress; 20% Topline Growth &amp; Improved China Market Conditions</li>
<li>Flagship Mobile Revenue Leading the Charge in China and Emerging Markets</li>
<li>ASIC and AI Accelerator Progress: Estimate 2025E/2026E Initial Mass Production; Maintain Structural Long Rating.</li>
</ul>


3Q24 Performance Signals Advanced Products Making Major Progress; 20% Topline Growth &amp; Improved China Market Conditions
Flagship Mobile Revenue Leading the Charge in China and Emerging Markets
ASIC and AI Accelerator Progress: Estimate 2025E/2026E Initial Mass Production; Maintain Structural Long Rating.


Mediatek's Advanced Product Strategy Showing Major Progress; Maintain Structural Long

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

ASE Technology Holding   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 4Q24 EMS is expected to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage QoQ in 4Q24, while ATM sales are expected to grow slightly QoQ.</li>
<li>General market hasn’t recovered yet.2024 outlook still seems lukewarm. 2024 market excluding HPC and AI is indeed down YoY. Only AI and leading edge product demand is robust.</li>
<li>Expects 2025 general market demand to have better recovery, more leading edge business opportunities and higher testing sales mix to help GM go up.</li>
</ul>


The 4Q24 EMS is expected to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage QoQ in 4Q24, while ATM sales are expected to grow slightly QoQ.
General market hasn’t recovered yet.2024 outlook still seems lukewarm. 2024 market excluding HPC and AI is indeed down YoY. Only AI and leading edge product demand is robust.
Expects 2025 general market demand to have better recovery, more leading edge business opportunities and higher testing sales mix to help GM go up.


ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): The Overall 4Q24 Trend Is Slightly Downward QoQ.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Q324 revenues of $2.84 billion, at the upper end of the guided range, up 10.5% QoQ and up 18.3% YoY</li>
<li>Q424 revenue guide of 2.95 billion, plus or minus $150 million. This represents a ~4% QoQ increase and a 18.6% increase YoY</li>
<li>CEO Rick Wallace: "for years now, we've really had primarily one major player at the leading edge”. That's an interesting comment to make.</li>
</ul>


Q324 revenues of $2.84 billion, at the upper end of the guided range, up 10.5% QoQ and up 18.3% YoY
Q424 revenue guide of 2.95 billion, plus or minus $150 million. This represents a ~4% QoQ increase and a 18.6% increase YoY
CEO Rick Wallace: "for years now, we've really had primarily one major player at the leading edge”. That's an interesting comment to make.


KLAC Q324. Heavy Emphasis On Leading Edge For Growth In 2025

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Companies exude confidence and unanimously explain that AI is the fastest growing revenue segment ever.  AI leads to revenue growth, increase in volume, higher pricing, higher engagement. </li>
<li>Companies also explain that AI today only reflects a small part of long-term planning. AI is a decade long transformation of how we work, search for information or buy products.  </li>
<li>Meta and Microsoft see equipment delays and are capacity constrained in 2024. Capex will increase in 2025. </li>
</ul>


Companies exude confidence and unanimously explain that AI is the fastest growing revenue segment ever.  AI leads to revenue growth, increase in volume, higher pricing, higher engagement. 
Companies also explain that AI today only reflects a small part of long-term planning. AI is a decade long transformation of how we work, search for information or buy products.  
Meta and Microsoft see equipment delays and are capacity constrained in 2024. Capex will increase in 2025. 


Google, Meta, Microsoft: What Did They Say About AI, Capex and Revenues?

<ul>
<li>Rising D9400 demand will offset lower-end SP demand weakness in 4Q24. </li>
<li>MTK has over 30% market share of flagship SPs in China, so flagship sales growth in 2025 will be below 70%. </li>
<li>For China demand, it is better than expected compared to one year ago for SPs, TVs, modems, and connectivity.</li>
</ul>


Rising D9400 demand will offset lower-end SP demand weakness in 4Q24. 
MTK has over 30% market share of flagship SPs in China, so flagship sales growth in 2025 will be below 70%. 
For China demand, it is better than expected compared to one year ago for SPs, TVs, modems, and connectivity.


MediaTek (2454.TT): Weakness in the 4Q24 Is Offset by the Demand for D9400.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Mediatek's Advanced Product Strategy Showing Major Progress; Maintain Structural Long

Advanced products at 3Q24 are showing strong performance with 20% topline growth, driven by flagship mobile revenue in China and emerging markets.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): The Overall 4Q24 Trend Is Slightly Downward QoQ.

4Q24 EMS expected to decline, ATM sales to grow slightly. 2024 market still struggling, AI demand robust. 2025 outlook shows promise for recovery...

Patrick Liao

KLAC Q324. Heavy Emphasis On Leading Edge For Growth In 2025

Q324 $2.84 billion, +10.5% QoQ & +18.3% YoY. Q424 guide $2.95 billion, +4% QoQ & +18.6% YoY. CEO states "for years now, we've really had primarily...

William Keating

Google, Meta, Microsoft: What Did They Say About AI, Capex and Revenues?

Is AI really increasing revenues, profitability? There is still considerable doubt within the investors community on the "reality" of AI, or its...

Nicolas Baratte

MediaTek (2454.TT): Weakness in the 4Q24 Is Offset by the Demand for D9400.

Strong demand for D9400 will help balance out the weaker demand for lower-end SPs in the 4Q24, with MTK holding a significant market share in...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Mediatek's Advanced Product Strategy Showing Major Progress; Maintain Structural Long

​Advanced products at 3Q24 are showing strong performance with 20% topline growth, driven by flagship mobile revenue in China and emerging markets.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): The Overall 4Q24 Trend Is Slightly Downward QoQ.

​4Q24 EMS expected to decline, ATM sales to grow slightly. 2024 market still struggling, AI demand robust. 2025 outlook shows promise for recovery...

Patrick Liao

KLAC Q324. Heavy Emphasis On Leading Edge For Growth In 2025

Q324 $2.84 billion, +10.5% QoQ & +18.3% YoY. Q424 guide $2.95 billion, +4% QoQ & +18.6% YoY. CEO states "for years now, we've really had primarily...

William Keating

Google, Meta, Microsoft: What Did They Say About AI, Capex and Revenues?

Is AI really increasing revenues, profitability? There is still considerable doubt within the investors community on the "reality" of AI, or its...

Nicolas Baratte

MediaTek (2454.TT): Weakness in the 4Q24 Is Offset by the Demand for D9400.

​Strong demand for D9400 will help balance out the weaker demand for lower-end SPs in the 4Q24, with MTK holding a significant market share in...

Patrick Liao

Advanced products at 3Q24 are showing strong performance with 20% topline growth, driven by flagship mobile revenue in China and emerging markets.

4Q24 EMS expected to decline, ATM sales to grow slightly. 2024 market still struggling, AI demand robust. 2025 outlook shows promise for recovery...

Strong demand for D9400 will help balance out the weaker demand for lower-end SPs in the 4Q24, with MTK holding a significant market share in...