Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are nine trading days (including today) until the end of the observation period for the Sep 2026 Nikkei 225 review. Things should be really obvious by now. </li>
<li>Given recent volatility, they really aren't. I see two definite ADDs. Probably a third. That means three deletes. Policy-wise, two are easy. Intellectually, they are not. </li>
<li>Then there are capping trades. As of today there are two on tap. Intraday Friday there were three. I got a question about it so will math the math here.</li>
</ul>


There are nine trading days (including today) until the end of the observation period for the Sep 2026 Nikkei 225 review. Things should be really obvious by now. 
Given recent volatility, they really aren't. I see two definite ADDs. Probably a third. That means three deletes. Policy-wise, two are easy. Intellectually, they are not. 
Then there are capping trades. As of today there are two on tap. Intraday Friday there were three. I got a question about it so will math the math here.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - Difficult Deletes and Mathing the Math on Three Caps

<ul>
<li>In early May, as with many months before, I had written about the nature of the Nikkei 25 rebal prediction decision tree. A week later, a branch, well... branched.</li>
<li>The third ADD changed in mid-month last month. Now, the first DELETE has changed. It likely isn't an auto-delete anymore. </li>
<li>Given the rankings of tech stocks, that may mean only two ADDs and two DELETES and it changes the calculus on the DELETEs as a whole.</li>
</ul>


In early May, as with many months before, I had written about the nature of the Nikkei 25 rebal prediction decision tree. A week later, a branch, well... branched.
The third ADD changed in mid-month last month. Now, the first DELETE has changed. It likely isn't an auto-delete anymore. 
Given the rankings of tech stocks, that may mean only two ADDs and two DELETES and it changes the calculus on the DELETEs as a whole.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - Changing Horses on the Top DELETE

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.</p>

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 rebal for September 2026 has three months of data collection left out of the 5-year data period. It's mostly done for now. </li>
<li>The Quiddity team see 2-3 ADDs and 2-3 DELETEs and see Advantest capped. Two Auto ADDs (for now) and one sector ADD but the third delete <em>feels</em> problematic.</li>
<li>Things are moving quickly. Short-term flow ideas not based on tech vs rest of market are mostly meaningless. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 rebal for September 2026 has three months of data collection left out of the 5-year data period. It's mostly done for now. 
The Quiddity team see 2-3 ADDs and 2-3 DELETEs and see Advantest capped. Two Auto ADDs (for now) and one sector ADD but the third delete feels problematic.
Things are moving quickly. Short-term flow ideas not based on tech vs rest of market are mostly meaningless. 


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Cap, Probably a Sector ADD

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 Average Index Committee is in something of a weird spot. For the first time in a while there are two potential automatic ADDs. That needs two DELETEs.</li>
<li>But there is also a sector imbalance which is quite fierce. There are 3-4 good candidates going forward. One needs a stock split. There's one auto DELETE, but...</li>
<li>The other DELETEs should come from the Technology sector and they aren't close to the border. There are, however, two cappings in view helping the total towards US$6.9bn one-way flow.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 Average Index Committee is in something of a weird spot. For the first time in a while there are two potential automatic ADDs. That needs two DELETEs.
But there is also a sector imbalance which is quite fierce. There are 3-4 good candidates going forward. One needs a stock split. There's one auto DELETE, but...
The other DELETEs should come from the Technology sector and they aren't close to the border. There are, however, two cappings in view helping the total towards US$6.9bn one-way flow.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - 2 Auto ADDs, M-A-Y-B-E 1 Extra, 2 Caps

Japan

Tokuyama Corp produces inorganic and organic industrial chemicals, synthetic res ins, cement, and construction materials.  The Company's product lines include Portland cement, soda chemicals, and polycrystalline silicon.

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Tokuyama Corp (4043 JP)

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - Difficult Deletes and Mathing the Math on Three Caps

The Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal has just 8 trading days left. The ADDs are pretty much cemented. The DELETEs are tough, not for the numbers but for...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - Changing Horses on the Top DELETE

Volume traded has removed the Top Delete candidate from the likely delete list for Sep26. That changes the calculus. I was leaning to 3 adds 3...

Travis Lundy

Global Equity Markets Overview

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and...

Vermilion Research

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Cap, Probably a Sector ADD

The Nikkei 225 data period is 95% complete. It looks like two auto ADDs and one auto DELETE. They could add Capcom as a sector add and the question...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - 2 Auto ADDs, M-A-Y-B-E 1 Extra, 2 Caps

The Nikkei 225 Sep 2026 rebal continues to evolve. The two auto ADDs remain the same. The auto DELETE continues to climb the rankings. Now there is...

Travis Lundy

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