Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 41 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Four new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meteoric-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1747:1" rel="noopener">Meteoric Resources Nl (MEI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zheneng-jinjiang-environment-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22847:1" rel="noopener">Zheneng Jinjiang Environment (ZJE SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goodbaby-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9467:1" rel="noopener">Goodbaby International (1086 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ingenia-communities-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5495:1" rel="noopener">Ingenia Communities (INA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ooh-media-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8662:1" rel="noopener">oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16415:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice (64 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yinson-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3252:1" rel="noopener">Yinson Holdings (YNS MK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 41 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Four new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Northern Star Resources (NST AU), Meteoric Resources Nl (MEI AU), Zheneng Jinjiang Environment (ZJE SP), and Goodbaby International (1086 HK).
Key updates/news also took place on: Ingenia Communities (INA AU), oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU), Get Nice (64 HK), and Yinson Holdings (YNS MK).


Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Northern Star, Meteoric, Goodbaby, Ingenia, OOh!Media, Zheneng Jinjiang

<ul>
<li>We know that Bain knew that their mid-September overbid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> did not meet the so-called KDDI Threshold, yet they made that bid anyway (¥3,720 vs EQT's ¥3,680).</li>
<li>IF <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a> trades wide, consider going long the arb, but generally, need to participate unless it does trade wide. There're other more interesting deals out there.</li>
<li>Despite the lower-than-expected bid optics compared to prior negotiations, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renew-energy-global-plc-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37038:1" rel="noopener">ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)</a>'s Offer looks done. All ducks are lined up. Just a question of timing on regulatory approvals.</li>
</ul>


We know that Bain knew that their mid-September overbid for Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) did not meet the so-called KDDI Threshold, yet they made that bid anyway (¥3,720 vs EQT's ¥3,680).
IF Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) trades wide, consider going long the arb, but generally, need to participate unless it does trade wide. There're other more interesting deals out there.
Despite the lower-than-expected bid optics compared to prior negotiations, ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)'s Offer looks done. All ducks are lined up. Just a question of timing on regulatory approvals.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku.com, Sankei Real Estate, ReNew Energy Global, Korea Aerospace Ind

<ul>
<li>For September 2026, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$26bn.</li>
<li>
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~46%; and a year-to-date average of ~45%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For September 2026, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$26bn.

The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~46%; and a year-to-date average of ~45%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


Asia-Pac M&A [Sept 2026 Wrap]: Northern Star, Kadoya Sesame, Ingenia, Leopalace21, IDP, Sharingtech

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Murakami's City Index Fifth has launched a JPY125,000-per-unit tender (a 16.6% premium to the last close) for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a>. That matches Tosei/GIC's failed offer, which Murakami blocked.</li>
<li>Murakami’s terms are weaker than Tosei/GIC: 1.10x P/NAV versus 1.15x, no price negotiation, a neutral board, no majority-of-minority condition and a vaguer commitment on rival bids.</li>
<li>The squeeze-out vote relies on low turnout and passives. However, the 25.42% minimum looks reachable (24.66% tendered last time, plus 10.32% irrevocables). </li>
</ul>


Murakami's City Index Fifth has launched a JPY125,000-per-unit tender (a 16.6% premium to the last close) for Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP). That matches Tosei/GIC's failed offer, which Murakami blocked.
Murakami’s terms are weaker than Tosei/GIC: 1.10x P/NAV versus 1.15x, no price negotiation, a neutral board, no majority-of-minority condition and a vaguer commitment on rival bids.
The squeeze-out vote relies on low turnout and passives. However, the 25.42% minimum looks reachable (24.66% tendered last time, plus 10.32% irrevocables). 


Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP): Murakami Revives the Tosei/GIC’s Failed Tender on Weaker Terms

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>In January, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tosei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11224:1" rel="noopener">Tosei Corp (8923 JP)</a> and GIC launched a TOB on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a>, the REIT of sponsor Sankei Building, a subsidiary of targeted/beleaguered Fuji Media (4676). </li>
<li>Murakami-San bought a large stake in the REIT, first sending the price up, then blocking the deal. A Fukuoka-based building was written down hard, a dividend promised was revoked.</li>
<li>Post deal-fail, REITs fell as interest rates rose. Murakami-san negotiated with the REIT and its Special Committee. The Fukuoka Green Building is sold.</li>
</ul>


In January, Tosei Corp (8923 JP) and GIC launched a TOB on Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP), the REIT of sponsor Sankei Building, a subsidiary of targeted/beleaguered Fuji Media (4676). 
Murakami-San bought a large stake in the REIT, first sending the price up, then blocking the deal. A Fukuoka-based building was written down hard, a dividend promised was revoked.
Post deal-fail, REITs fell as interest rates rose. Murakami-san negotiated with the REIT and its Special Committee. The Fukuoka Green Building is sold.


[Japan M&A] Murakami Launches Tender on Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) At ¥125,000/Unit

Japan

TOSEI CORPORATION develops and sells residential properties and leases office facilities in central Tokyo.  The Company also invests in real estate and manages investment trust funds such as the Argo Fund.

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Tosei Corp (8923 JP)

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Northern Star, Meteoric, Goodbaby, Ingenia, OOh!Media, Zheneng Jinjiang

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku.com, Sankei Real Estate, ReNew Energy Global, Korea Aerospace Ind

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac M&A [Sept 2026 Wrap]: Northern Star, Kadoya Sesame, Ingenia, Leopalace21, IDP, Sharingtech

For the month of Sept, 11 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma, with an overall deal size of ~US$26bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP): Murakami Revives the Tosei/GIC’s Failed Tender on Weaker Terms

Murakami's JPY125,000 Sankei RE tender matches the Tosei/GIC bid it blocked but on weaker terms; the 25.42% minimum looks reachable, though the...

Arun George

[Japan M&A] Murakami Launches Tender on Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) At ¥125,000/Unit

Murakami Group bought 29.9% of Sankei REIT to block a previous deal at ¥125k/unit. Since then, other REITs are down 15% but Sankei's NAV is higher?...

Travis Lundy

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