Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taishin-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:715:1" rel="noopener">Taishin Financial (2887 TT)</a> is cheap to peers. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong Financial (2888 TT)</a> is cheap vs Taishin. Long Shin Kong. Long Taishin vs Peers. Long Shin Kong vs Taishin Peers.</li>
<li>Abu Dhabi makes a big, bold bet on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a>. However FIRB will have the last word on whether the deal goes through. </li>
<li>If the results show NTT owns &gt;80% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data (9613 JP)</a>, buy a lot for a potential squeeze. If the results show NTT owns 68-70%, you can probably ignore. </li>
</ul>



Taishin Financial (2887 TT) is cheap to peers. Shin Kong Financial (2888 TT) is cheap vs Taishin. Long Shin Kong. Long Taishin vs Peers. Long Shin Kong vs Taishin Peers.
Abu Dhabi makes a big, bold bet on Santos Ltd (STO AU). However FIRB will have the last word on whether the deal goes through. 
If the results show NTT owns &gt;80% of NTT Data (9613 JP), buy a lot for a potential squeeze. If the results show NTT owns 68-70%, you can probably ignore. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong/Taishin, Santos, NTT Data, ENN Energy, Mitsui Matsushima

<ul>
<li>I tally 46 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Four new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adriatic-metals-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30797:1" rel="noopener">Adriatic Metals PLC (ADT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tourism-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2787:1" rel="noopener">Tourism Holdings (THL NZ)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carta-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9634:1" rel="noopener">Carta Holdings, Inc. (3688 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9712:1" rel="noopener">New World Resources (NWC AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dickson-concepts-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5052:1" rel="noopener">Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 46 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Four new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Santos Ltd (STO AU), Adriatic Metals PLC (ADT AU), Tourism Holdings (THL NZ), and Carta Holdings, Inc. (3688 JP).
Key updates/news took place on: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), and Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Adriatic Metals, Carta, Mayne Pharma, PointsBet, Tourism Holdings

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tourism Holdings' (THL) exposure to the vehicle sales market has significantly impacted both earnings and its share price over the past 12 months; this creates an attractive opportunity as the cycle turns.</li><li>We believe vehicle sales markets in each of THL's jurisdictions are at, or close to, an inflection point.</li><li>Real time Google trends data, a strong proxy for vehicle sales demand, suggests seasonally adjusted sales volumes have not got any worse over the past six months. </li></ul>

Tourism Holdings' (THL) exposure to the vehicle sales market has significantly impacted both earnings and its share price over the past 12 months; this creates an attractive opportunity as the cycle turns.We believe vehicle sales markets in each of THL's jurisdictions are at, or close to, an inflection point.Real time Google trends data, a strong proxy for vehicle sales demand, suggests seasonally adjusted sales volumes have not got any worse over the past six months. 

Tourism Holdings - Google Trenz Inflection Point

<ul><li>Tourism Holdings' (THL) recent annual shareholder meeting trading update suggested lower management conviction in its ability to generate earnings growth in FY25.</li><li>Guidance now suggests: ‘we remain focused on increasing underlying NPAT in FY25’, compared to: ‘we expect an increase in underlying NPAT in FY25 compared to FY24’, at the time of the FY24 result.</li><li>Trading conditions have remained challenging following a tough 4Q24. </li></ul>

Tourism Holdings' (THL) recent annual shareholder meeting trading update suggested lower management conviction in its ability to generate earnings growth in FY25.Guidance now suggests: ‘we remain focused on increasing underlying NPAT in FY25’, compared to: ‘we expect an increase in underlying NPAT in FY25 compared to FY24’, at the time of the FY24 result.Trading conditions have remained challenging following a tough 4Q24. 

Tourism Holdings - Rightsizing the Near Term

<ul><li>Tourism Holdings (THL) reported a FY24 result in line with its most recent guidance, but one that was heavily impacted by slowing demand, particularly for vehicle sales, in the last quarter.</li><li>This slowdown reflects lingering cyclical challenges, particularly in the Australian market, though management expects better overall financial performance through FY25.</li><li>This will be driven by a combination of: (1) higher RevPARVs (revenue per available rental vehicle), (2) cost-out initiatives, including further Apollo synergy realisation, and (3) a slightly larger fleet. </li></ul>

Tourism Holdings (THL) reported a FY24 result in line with its most recent guidance, but one that was heavily impacted by slowing demand, particularly for vehicle sales, in the last quarter.This slowdown reflects lingering cyclical challenges, particularly in the Australian market, though management expects better overall financial performance through FY25.This will be driven by a combination of: (1) higher RevPARVs (revenue per available rental vehicle), (2) cost-out initiatives, including further Apollo synergy realisation, and (3) a slightly larger fleet. 

Tourism Holdings - FY24 — Same Destination, Longer Journey

New Zealand

Tourism Holdings Limited provides tourist services in New Zealand and Australia. The Company's services include campervan and motor homes, car rentals and coach services.  The Company also offers sightseeing tours, Antarctic tourist centers, boating tours and cave expeditions.

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Tourism Holdings (THL NZ)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong/Taishin, Santos, NTT Data, ENN Energy, Mitsui Matsushima

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Adriatic Metals, Carta, Mayne Pharma, PointsBet, Tourism Holdings

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Tourism Holdings - Google Trenz Inflection Point

Tourism Holdings' (THL) exposure to the vehicle sales market has significantly impacted both earnings and its share price over the past 12 months

Forsyth Barr

Tourism Holdings - Rightsizing the Near Term

Tourism Holdings' (THL) recent annual shareholder meeting trading update suggested lower management conviction in its ability to generate earnings...

Forsyth Barr

Tourism Holdings - FY24 — Same Destination, Longer Journey

Tourism Holdings (THL) reported a FY24 result in line with its most recent guidance, but one that was heavily impacted by slowing demand,...

Forsyth Barr

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