Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Toyota results were weak missing by 2.9% and OP by 8.5% due to weak volumes, material costs and some evidence of pulling forward costs. </li>
<li>Guidance was for a sharp YoY decline from ¥3trn in OP to just ¥2.4trn but this assumes limited price hikes and ¥115/$ so… who cares? </li>
<li>We expect the weak yen, rising hybrid penetration and volume recovery to drive OP into the ¥3.6-4.0trn range.</li>
</ul>


Toyota results were weak missing by 2.9% and OP by 8.5% due to weak volumes, material costs and some evidence of pulling forward costs. 
Guidance was for a sharp YoY decline from ¥3trn in OP to just ¥2.4trn but this assumes limited price hikes and ¥115/$ so… who cares? 
We expect the weak yen, rising hybrid penetration and volume recovery to drive OP into the ¥3.6-4.0trn range.


Toyota – Guidance Meaningless With A ¥115 Assumption

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Five things to know about China’s draft rules on local financial institutions
</li>
<li>
Beijing shortens quarantines for inbound travelers, close contacts
</li>
<li>
Shrinking capital investment drags down Caixin New Economy Index
</li>
</ul>



Five things to know about China’s draft rules on local financial institutions


Beijing shortens quarantines for inbound travelers, close contacts


Shrinking capital investment drags down Caixin New Economy Index



CX Daily: Five Things To Know About China’s Draft Rules On Local Financial Institutions

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We look at short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan in April to identify stocks/sectors that have seen the largest changes in each market.</li>
<li>Korea and Taiwan are showing a clear divergence with short notional increasing as the market moves lower, indicative of new shorts being initiated.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a> has seen the largest short covering as the stock has tumbled in the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


We look at short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan in April to identify stocks/sectors that have seen the largest changes in each market.
Korea and Taiwan are showing a clear divergence with short notional increasing as the market moves lower, indicative of new shorts being initiated.

China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) has seen the largest short covering as the stock has tumbled in the last couple of weeks.


Asia Short Interest: Large Moves in April

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are two days to go until the TOPIX April-end rebalance. </li>
<li>On an average-weighted, sector-neutral basis, the "announcement to event" trade is -0.3% from 7 April to 25 April. The rest of the buy vs sell basket is doing worse.</li>
<li>There should be ¥740bn-ish to buy and sell (each) on Wednesday at the close. If you have trades to execute in Japan, the attached spreadsheet shows where there is opportunity.</li>
</ul>


There are two days to go until the TOPIX April-end rebalance. 
On an average-weighted, sector-neutral basis, the "announcement to event" trade is -0.3% from 7 April to 25 April. The rest of the buy vs sell basket is doing worse.
There should be ¥740bn-ish to buy and sell (each) on Wednesday at the close. If you have trades to execute in Japan, the attached spreadsheet shows where there is opportunity.


Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Tesla is losing ground in China, which it needs to juice its margins, create *all* its profits &amp; cash flow, &amp; fund most of billions spent on capex. </li>
<li>
Aging Model Y—its last and only thriving model—won't save it. 
</li>
<li>Sales in China were weakening even before what now has become an extended disruption as China fights its worst Covid surge in two years.</li>
</ul>



Tesla is losing ground in China, which it needs to juice its margins, create *all* its profits &amp; cash flow, &amp; fund most of billions spent on capex. 

Aging Model Y—its last and only thriving model—won't save it. 

Sales in China were weakening even before what now has become an extended disruption as China fights its worst Covid surge in two years.


Forget Elon's Twitter Spatter. Tesla's Got Trouble In China.

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Toyota Motor Corp Spon Adr (TM US)

Toyota – Guidance Meaningless With A ¥115 Assumption

Toyota guidance looks meaningless given a ¥115/$ assumption and we expect OP to potentially hit ¥4trn next year with a run at ¥5trn possible over...

Mio Kato

CX Daily: Five Things To Know About China’s Draft Rules On Local Financial Institutions

Five things to know about China’s draft rules on local financial institutions. Beijing shortens quarantines for inbound travelers, close contacts

Caixin Global

Asia Short Interest: Large Moves in April

Short notional in Korea and Taiwan has been increasing as the market has been moving lower. Shorts on China Merchant Bank have been covered in...

Brian Freitas

TOPIX April Rebalance - Two Days To Go

The TOPIX April-June rebalance for FFW review and Liquidity Factor adjustment sees its first tranche of trades executed Wednesday at the close.

Travis Lundy

Forget Elon's Twitter Spatter. Tesla's Got Trouble In China.

Tesla is losing ground in China, which it needs to juice its margins, create all its profits & cash flow, & fund most of billions spent on capex....

Vicki Bryan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Toyota – Guidance Meaningless With A ¥115 Assumption

Toyota guidance looks meaningless given a ¥115/$ assumption and we expect OP to potentially hit ¥4trn next year with a run at ¥5trn possible over...

Mio Kato

CX Daily: Five Things To Know About China’s Draft Rules On Local Financial Institutions

Five things to know about China’s draft rules on local financial institutions. Beijing shortens quarantines for inbound travelers, close contacts

Caixin Global

Asia Short Interest: Large Moves in April

Short notional in Korea and Taiwan has been increasing as the market has been moving lower. Shorts on China Merchant Bank have been covered in...

Brian Freitas

TOPIX April Rebalance - Two Days To Go

The TOPIX April-June rebalance for FFW review and Liquidity Factor adjustment sees its first tranche of trades executed Wednesday at the close.

Travis Lundy

Forget Elon's Twitter Spatter. Tesla's Got Trouble In China.

Tesla is losing ground in China, which it needs to juice its margins, create *all* its profits & cash flow, & fund most of billions spent on capex....

Vicki Bryan

Tesla is losing ground in China, which it needs to juice its margins, create all its profits & cash flow, & fund most of billions spent on capex....