Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.</li><li>No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.</li><li>We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.</li></ul>

Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Announcement of Gold-backed BRICS currency unit rumoured for August, 2023. Could this disrupt the US dollar?</li>
<li>BRICS and ‘Friends’ have already amassed over 8k tonnes or more gold bullion than is held in US official reserves 
</li>
<li>Threat to US dollar comes from undermining of US finance not denomination of trade. Integrity of dollar is a domestic question, outside of BRICS, and dependent on future fiscal solvency
</li>
</ul>


Announcement of Gold-backed BRICS currency unit rumoured for August, 2023. Could this disrupt the US dollar?
BRICS and ‘Friends’ have already amassed over 8k tonnes or more gold bullion than is held in US official reserves 

Threat to US dollar comes from undermining of US finance not denomination of trade. Integrity of dollar is a domestic question, outside of BRICS, and dependent on future fiscal solvency



The Gold BRICS – A Coming Threat to US Dollar Hegemony?

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Comparable to the China Growth Scare of 2015-2016, the Manufacturing PMI is below 50, imports are falling, and deflation worries are rising.</li>
<li>The real estate crisis is worse than in 2015-2016, with housing prices falling again, floor space under construction declining, consumer confidence near historic lows, and LGFV financing issues increasing.</li>
<li>Unlike 2015 (and 2022), the current depreciation of the Chinese Yuan has not (yet) been accompanied by falling stock prices. </li>
</ul>


Comparable to the China Growth Scare of 2015-2016, the Manufacturing PMI is below 50, imports are falling, and deflation worries are rising.
The real estate crisis is worse than in 2015-2016, with housing prices falling again, floor space under construction declining, consumer confidence near historic lows, and LGFV financing issues increasing.
Unlike 2015 (and 2022), the current depreciation of the Chinese Yuan has not (yet) been accompanied by falling stock prices. 


China: An Accident Waiting to Happen? Comparing the Current Chinese Economy to the One in 2015

<ul>
<li>Watch the CNY as well as DXY. Chinese Yuan has broken out of its long-established target band. Net capital outflows are very weak. Could the CNY test RMB10/US$?</li>
<li>China’s broken economy needs a new source of demand that can create less debt dependent future GDP growth. Devaluation may prove the solution</li>
<li>Oct/ Nov show PBoC injecting more liquidity into Chinese money markets after year of tightness, following attempts to support the Yuan. Lower CNY will allow PBoC more space to ease</li>
</ul>


Watch the CNY as well as DXY. Chinese Yuan has broken out of its long-established target band. Net capital outflows are very weak. Could the CNY test RMB10/US$?
China’s broken economy needs a new source of demand that can create less debt dependent future GDP growth. Devaluation may prove the solution
Oct/ Nov show PBoC injecting more liquidity into Chinese money markets after year of tightness, following attempts to support the Yuan. Lower CNY will allow PBoC more space to ease


From Capital Wars to Currency Wars: Weak US Dollar in 2023?… Or Will the Yuan Tumble To RMB10/US$?

<ul>
<li>Chairman Powell’s short and direct Jackson Hole speech emphasized the need to conquer inflation and (unusually) warned us to expect some economic pain</li>
<li>US monetary tightening is being front-end loaded. The Fed sees QT/QE operating like an ‘air conditioning unit’ whirring in the background. But we see QT as a wrecking ball
</li>
<li>Too much liquidity is being sucked out of financial markets by Central Banks. Among other things it may trigger Euro instability? Will this force a policy pivot sometime in 2023?</li>
</ul>


Chairman Powell’s short and direct Jackson Hole speech emphasized the need to conquer inflation and (unusually) warned us to expect some economic pain
US monetary tightening is being front-end loaded. The Fed sees QT/QE operating like an ‘air conditioning unit’ whirring in the background. But we see QT as a wrecking ball

Too much liquidity is being sucked out of financial markets by Central Banks. Among other things it may trigger Euro instability? Will this force a policy pivot sometime in 2023?


Post-Jackson Hole: Don’t Fight The Fed… Euro Collapse Threatened?

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent...

Steno Research

The Gold BRICS – A Coming Threat to US Dollar Hegemony?

The slated gold-backed BRICS currency unit may be announced this coming August. Could it pose a future threat to the US dollar? We argue that in...

Michael J. Howell

China: An Accident Waiting to Happen? Comparing the Current Chinese Economy to the One in 2015

Current economic conditions in China increasingly resemble those of 2015-2016, with some looking worse than eight years ago.

Jeroen Blokland

From Capital Wars to Currency Wars: Weak US Dollar in 2023?… Or Will the Yuan Tumble To RMB10/US$?

Could the CNY test RMB10/US$? China’s broken economy needs a new source of demand that creates less debt dependent future GDP growth. Devaluation...

Michael J. Howell

Post-Jackson Hole: Don’t Fight The Fed… Euro Collapse Threatened?

Post-Jackson Hole, US policy is front-ended loaded. Fed B/S reduction or QT is asymmetric and non-linear in its effects. It will cause funding...

Michael J. Howell

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