External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD’s July rebound has extended further than we expected.</li><li>The DXY rose every day in July through yesterday, an unusually persistent string of net gains which, if the July 4th is included, stretched to 11 sessions.</li><li>Typically, developed market currency moves rarely extend for more than 10-12 sessions (up or down) before a consolidation or reversal develops. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The USD’s July rebound has extended further than we expected.The DXY rose every day in July through yesterday, an unusually persistent string of net gains which, if the July 4th is included, stretched to 11 sessions.Typically, developed market currency moves rarely extend for more than 10-12 sessions (up or down) before a consolidation or reversal develops. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - USD Rebound May Stall on Fed Chair Volatility

Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Despite headlines about BRICS alternatives, gold hoarding, and China's reduced U.S. Treasury holdings, the data shows no structural shift away from the dollar.</li>
<li>A 10% decline in the DXY under six months is not an uncommon  occurence from a longer term perspective.  </li>
<li>The dollar’s weakness is driven by a historically overvalued real effective exchange rate (REER)  and falling oil prices, not a structural decline.</li>
</ul>


Despite headlines about BRICS alternatives, gold hoarding, and China's reduced U.S. Treasury holdings, the data shows no structural shift away from the dollar.
A 10% decline in the DXY under six months is not an uncommon  occurence from a longer term perspective.  
The dollar’s weakness is driven by a historically overvalued real effective exchange rate (REER)  and falling oil prices, not a structural decline.


De-Dollarisation Debate : Unmasking USD Over-Valuation

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

<ul>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) continue to hold above short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs (currently 5966 on SPX, $526.50 on QQQ, $208.75 on IWM)</li>
<li>As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact.</li>
<li>We will need to see breakdowns below 20-day MA supports in order to expect any meaningful near-term downside.</li>
</ul>


The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) continue to hold above short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs (currently 5966 on SPX, $526.50 on QQQ, $208.75 on IWM)
As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact.
We will need to see breakdowns below 20-day MA supports in order to expect any meaningful near-term downside.


20-Day MA Supports Holding on SPX, QQQ, IWM; Bullish Outlook Intact

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The 90-day pause in tariffs between China and the US provides “tremendous” opportunities</li>
<li>The headline volatility allows investors to scale in and out of positions</li>
<li>Where we could be wrong in assuming the bear market is still on</li>
</ul>


The 90-day pause in tariffs between China and the US provides “tremendous” opportunities
The headline volatility allows investors to scale in and out of positions
Where we could be wrong in assuming the bear market is still on


Overview #26 -Is the Bear Market Over, and Are We Back to the Races?

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

FX Snapshot - USD Rebound May Stall on Fed Chair Volatility

The DXY rose every day in July through yesterday, an unusually persistent string of net gains which, if the July 4th is included, stretched to 11...

Scotiabank

De-Dollarisation Debate : Unmasking USD Over-Valuation

The de-dollarisation view has run ahead of reality amidst a 10% fall in the DXY and China's declining holdings of US Treasuries. The former is...

Kok Peng Chan

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

20-Day MA Supports Holding on SPX, QQQ, IWM; Bullish Outlook Intact

20-Day MA Supports Holding on $SPX, $QQQ, and $IWM. As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4...

Vermilion Research

Overview #26 -Is the Bear Market Over, and Are We Back to the Races?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at whether the worst is over for markets

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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