Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>The doves have started sounding like hawks as the can gets kicked down the road</li>
<li>The Iran conflict is forcing countries to take sides in the new Cold War</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
The doves have started sounding like hawks as the can gets kicked down the road
The Iran conflict is forcing countries to take sides in the new Cold War


Overview #58 - Central Bankers Are Revolting*

Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

<ul>
<li>Gold has pulled back from record highs near US$5,594/oz in January 2026, but supply remains inelastic and structural demand persists, suggesting downside is constrained.</li>
<li>Short-Term price moves are shaped by real yields, the US dollar and positioning. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold and limit near-term upside.</li>
<li>Official sector buying remains positive and absorbs supply, providing a structural floor, but its pace is uneven and insufficient to offset macro-driven outflows in the short term.</li>
</ul>


Gold has pulled back from record highs near US$5,594/oz in January 2026, but supply remains inelastic and structural demand persists, suggesting downside is constrained.
Short-Term price moves are shaped by real yields, the US dollar and positioning. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold and limit near-term upside.
Official sector buying remains positive and absorbs supply, providing a structural floor, but its pace is uneven and insufficient to offset macro-driven outflows in the short term.


Gold: The Floor Is Clear, Weakness Is an Opportunity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We first review at  Q1 performance in the major markets we follow</li>
<li>Then our outlook for Q2 with the Iran War outcome the major wild card</li>
<li>Some short-term vs  long term  implications of the ongoing Iran war </li>
</ul>


We first review at  Q1 performance in the major markets we follow
Then our outlook for Q2 with the Iran War outcome the major wild card
Some short-term vs  long term  implications of the ongoing Iran war 


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook as of our (3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).</li>
<li>The local low from 3/9/26 still holds, but we are increasingly concerned about potential support violations.</li>
<li>Crucial supports (and downside triggers) are $245 on the Russell 2000(IWM), the 200-day MA (currently 6613) and 6480-6520 on SPX, and 6-month support at 24,000 on Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)</li>
</ul>


Our outlook as of our (3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).
The local low from 3/9/26 still holds, but we are increasingly concerned about potential support violations.
Crucial supports (and downside triggers) are $245 on the Russell 2000(IWM), the 200-day MA (currently 6613) and 6480-6520 on SPX, and 6-month support at 24,000 on Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)


At a Crossroads; Downgrading Transportation; Significant Downside Air Pocket Risk

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>High Oil prices start to filter into other sectors of the market</li>
<li>Pressure is mounting on US assets as financial conditions tighten</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
High Oil prices start to filter into other sectors of the market
Pressure is mounting on US assets as financial conditions tighten


United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Overview #58 - Central Bankers Are Revolting*

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Central Bank meetings and further implications of the...

Rikki Malik

Gold: The Floor Is Clear, Weakness Is an Opportunity

Gold has a structural floor from constrained supply and central bank demand, but real yields cap upside, making weakness a more attractive entry...

Duncan Chan

Q2 Outlook – A Tale of Two Regimes

Our outlook for Q2 2026. Separating the short-term noise from our longer-term investment themes. In Part 1 we look at hard assets while we look at...

Rikki Malik

At a Crossroads; Downgrading Transportation; Significant Downside Air Pocket Risk

Significant Downside Air Pocket Risk; Downgrading Transportation $IYT $XTN to Market Weight; Crucial supports/downside triggers: $245 on $IWM, the...

Vermilion Research

Overview #53 – Second Order Effects

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at other stock market sectors benefiting from higher oil prices.

Rikki Malik

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