Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Commodities

<ul><li>Valuations were fair on last Friday, with the exception of the media-reported rate check by New York Fed for the Japanese yen which triggered a rise in the dollar and metals trade.</li><li>Despite potential consolidation and pullbacks ahead of payrolls, the macro backdrop favors pro-cyclical currencies and a weaker dollar.</li><li>Gold is believed to have a structural bullish trend, while silver may experience a sharp correction due to speculative overextension, and copper's rally is driven by Chinese flows and supply constraints.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Valuations were fair on last Friday, with the exception of the media-reported rate check by New York Fed for the Japanese yen which triggered a rise in the dollar and metals trade.Despite potential consolidation and pullbacks ahead of payrolls, the macro backdrop favors pro-cyclical currencies and a weaker dollar.Gold is believed to have a structural bullish trend, while silver may experience a sharp correction due to speculative overextension, and copper's rally is driven by Chinese flows and supply constraints.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX and Commodities: The dollar, metals, APAC and vols

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500, which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold. We are buying Energy and Consumer Staples</li>
<li>We are monitoring a few potential concerns--notably the 10-year Treasury yield holding above 4.20%, global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 4+ month RS highs, and crude oil prices bottoming.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500, which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold. We are buying Energy and Consumer Staples
We are monitoring a few potential concerns--notably the 10-year Treasury yield holding above 4.20%, global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 4+ month RS highs, and crude oil prices bottoming.


Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Energy; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Rising yields and weaker IDR renew rate-hike concerns, yet FX trends, liquidity conditions, and BI policy suggest low probability.</li><li>Recent SRBI yield moves reflect liquidity calibration, not tightening, keeping rate hikes unlikely while delaying potential rate cuts.</li><li>BI calibrates SRBI awards to balance liquidity and credit as limited FX intervention and seasonal USD demand pressure.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Rising yields and weaker IDR renew rate-hike concerns, yet FX trends, liquidity conditions, and BI policy suggest low probability.Recent SRBI yield moves reflect liquidity calibration, not tightening, keeping rate hikes unlikely while delaying potential rate cuts.BI calibrates SRBI awards to balance liquidity and credit as limited FX intervention and seasonal USD demand pressure.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>IDR remains weak despite foreign inflows, driven by fiscal concerns, DXY rebound, and limited BI excess rupiah liquidity absorption.</li><li>Fed signals January rate hold as growth remains solid, labor cools, and easing potential points to later 2026.</li><li>US tariff uncertainty persists, but Indonesia remains largely insulated; adverse rulings may pressure USD , potentially easing pressure on IDR.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IDR remains weak despite foreign inflows, driven by fiscal concerns, DXY rebound, and limited BI excess rupiah liquidity absorption.Fed signals January rate hold as growth remains solid, labor cools, and easing potential points to later 2026.US tariff uncertainty persists, but Indonesia remains largely insulated; adverse rulings may pressure USD , potentially easing pressure on IDR.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Jan 19, 2026

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Global FX and Commodities: The dollar, metals, APAC and vols

Overall, valuations were mostly fair in the market last week, with some exceptions such as the rate check on the Japanese yen leading to a surge in...

At Any Rate

Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Energy; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy

Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Global Energy and Consumer Staples Names; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy. Monitoring a few potential concerns

Vermilion Research

Macro Strategy: Interpreting the Signals

Rising yields and weaker IDR renew rate-hike concerns, yet FX trends, liquidity conditions, and BI policy suggest low probability.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Jan 19, 2026

IDR remains weak despite foreign inflows, driven by fiscal concerns, DXY rebound, and limited BI excess rupiah liquidity absorption.

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy: The Currency Conundrum

IDR remains weak despite foreign inflows, driven by fiscal concerns, DXY rebound, and limited BI excess rupiah liquidity absorption.

BRI Danareksa Research

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