Podcast from BlackRock, The Bid

The Bid

Podcast from BlackRock

The Bid breaks down what’s happening in the world of investing and explores the forces changing the economy and finance. From stock market outlooks and megatrends to geopolitics and technology, BlackRock speaks to thought leaders and industry experts from around the globe about the biggest trends moving markets.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Fed interest rate policies have not followed traditional patterns, with long-term rates decoupling from short-term rates</li><li>The economic shock of Covid-19 has led to increased focus on inflation and uncertainty in the bond market</li><li>Fed Chairman Powell's actions and fiscal policy responses have contributed to changing economic dynamics and interest rate outlooks</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Fed interest rate policies have not followed traditional patterns, with long-term rates decoupling from short-term ratesThe economic shock of Covid-19 has led to increased focus on inflation and uncertainty in the bond marketFed Chairman Powell's actions and fiscal policy responses have contributed to changing economic dynamics and interest rate outlooksThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Why Are Bond Yields Rising As Rates Are Cut?

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The Fed kept policy rates unchanged as expected, but Chair Powell's press conference provided key insights on the Fed's stance</li><li>The Fed's focus on inflation and asymmetric reaction function suggests a possible delay in further rate cuts</li><li>Range-bound rate environment post-Fed meeting favors short gamma strategies for volatility sellers, while yield curve trading strategies may lack carry opportunities</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Fed kept policy rates unchanged as expected, but Chair Powell's press conference provided key insights on the Fed's stanceThe Fed's focus on inflation and asymmetric reaction function suggests a possible delay in further rate cutsRange-bound rate environment post-Fed meeting favors short gamma strategies for volatility sellers, while yield curve trading strategies may lack carry opportunitiesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

<ul>
<li>DeepSeek appears to have turned the chatbot market upside-down, putting pressure on AI-linked stocks. The dust has yet to settle, but the selloff has been largely contained to AI-linked stocks.</li>
<li>The rest of the market did not seem to care; the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 was roughly flat yesterday.</li>
<li>Additionally, market dynamics remain healthy. Bottom line: as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our long-term outlook remains bullish.</li>
</ul>


DeepSeek appears to have turned the chatbot market upside-down, putting pressure on AI-linked stocks. The dust has yet to settle, but the selloff has been largely contained to AI-linked stocks.
The rest of the market did not seem to care; the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 was roughly flat yesterday.
Additionally, market dynamics remain healthy. Bottom line: as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our long-term outlook remains bullish.


S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The new trade policy outlined by the administration calls for investigations into trade deficits and unfair trade practices, with a deadline for reviews set for April 1st</li><li>Tariffs are still a possibility, but negotiations and concrete news will be key to determining their impact on the economy</li><li>The implication of a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada depends on details such as industry exclusions and potential retaliation, with potential drag on GDP and rise in inflation mentioned as possible outcomes depending on the scenario.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The new trade policy outlined by the administration calls for investigations into trade deficits and unfair trade practices, with a deadline for reviews set for April 1stTariffs are still a possibility, but negotiations and concrete news will be key to determining their impact on the economyThe implication of a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada depends on details such as industry exclusions and potential retaliation, with potential drag on GDP and rise in inflation mentioned as possible outcomes depending on the scenario.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US Rates -Trade policy, the Fed, and implications for rates markets

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Why Are Bond Yields Rising As Rates Are Cut?

The atypical behavior of bond market performance and interest rates in 2024 has led to uncertainty and volatility in inflation, influencing the...

The Bid

U.S. Rates - DeepFreeze

The FOMC kept policy rates unchanged, Chair Powell provided key insights during the press conference, economists expect two more cuts this year,...

At Any Rate

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness

$SPX Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness; $DXY, Treasury yields, and crude oil near-term tops...

Vermilion Research

US Rates -Trade policy, the Fed, and implications for rates markets

The US government has announced a new trade policy with a deadline for reviews set for April 1st, raising concerns about the potential impact on...

At Any Rate

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