Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).</li>
<li>Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).
Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.


Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Podcast has been running for almost seven months with recent guest episodes</li><li>Discussion on recent global asset trends and market news, including inflation, Fed rate cuts, and Trump's tariff threats</li><li>Mention of interns from CUNY City Tech helping with macro database analysis and highlighting Ethereum's strong performance in the market.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Podcast has been running for almost seven months with recent guest episodesDiscussion on recent global asset trends and market news, including inflation, Fed rate cuts, and Trump's tariff threatsMention of interns from CUNY City Tech helping with macro database analysis and highlighting Ethereum's strong performance in the market.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

New Barbarians Podcast | Episode #029 | Recap & Reset: Macro Shifts, Ethereum's Spike, MicroStrat...

<ul><li>Recap of last week's events including good inflation news, pressure on Fed to cut interest rates, tensions between Israel and Iran escalating, and market outcomes</li><li>Factors showing risk-on sentiment with sales growth up, EPS growth strong, volatility and quality return on equity fluctuating</li><li>Discussion on factors influencing return on equity and quality, with insights into market trends and data analysis techniques</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Recap of last week's events including good inflation news, pressure on Fed to cut interest rates, tensions between Israel and Iran escalating, and market outcomesFactors showing risk-on sentiment with sales growth up, EPS growth strong, volatility and quality return on equity fluctuatingDiscussion on factors influencing return on equity and quality, with insights into market trends and data analysis techniquesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Barbarians with Bandwidth: Why Christina Qi Left the Hedge Fund World to Reinvent Data

<ul>
<li>A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.</li>
<li>We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).</li>
<li>Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.</li>
</ul>


A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.
We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).
Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.


Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

<ul><li>The speaker discusses events surrounding the downgrade of the US economy and the response from government officials</li><li>The speaker highlights the increasing adoption and performance of bitcoin compared to traditional assets like gold</li><li>The discussion transitions to the business efforts and partnership of Lisa and Dan, who met at a Houston bitcoin meetup in 2021.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The speaker discusses events surrounding the downgrade of the US economy and the response from government officialsThe speaker highlights the increasing adoption and performance of bitcoin compared to traditional assets like goldThe discussion transitions to the business efforts and partnership of Lisa and Dan, who met at a Houston bitcoin meetup in 2021.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Texas Power Play: Grid Sovereignty, Bitcoin, and the Future of AI

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Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Still Little Evidence that a Meaningful Pullback is Imminent. Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ since 4/22...

Vermilion Research

New Barbarians Podcast | Episode #029 | Recap & Reset: Macro Shifts, Ethereum's Spike, MicroStrat...

Mark and Bill discuss global assets, market trends, monetary policy updates, and recent tariff threats, while sharing insights from interns and...

William Mann

Barbarians with Bandwidth: Why Christina Qi Left the Hedge Fund World to Reinvent Data

Overall, last week saw positive economic news, with the Fed under pressure to cut interest rates, escalating tensions between Israel and Iran...

William Mann

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary $XLY to Overweight; 5700-5785 $SPX Gap Support Holding as we expected/discussed last week. 4.7-4.8% on 10y...

Vermilion Research

Texas Power Play: Grid Sovereignty, Bitcoin, and the Future of AI

Crystal played a key role in organizing an event at the Coronado Club where Dr. Adam Back spoke on the topic of bitcoin energy and AI, as Lisa and...

William Mann

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