Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook (as of our 3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25)</li>
<li>Concerns we discussed since early-February stemmed from deteriorating market dynamics, and ever since then we have been "concerned about a deeper pullback, likely to 6720-6776, 6690, or 6480-6520 on SPX."</li>
<li>SPX hit 6480-6520 support on Friday and yesterday (Monday), and the same can be said of Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)which tested 24,000, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) which tested $245.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook (as of our 3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25)
Concerns we discussed since early-February stemmed from deteriorating market dynamics, and ever since then we have been "concerned about a deeper pullback, likely to 6720-6776, 6690, or 6480-6520 on SPX."
SPX hit 6480-6520 support on Friday and yesterday (Monday), and the same can be said of Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)which tested 24,000, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) which tested $245.


Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The worst case scenario (of tit-for-tat attacks on energy infrastructure) has abated for the week ahead. Pezeshkian-Trump deal via intermediaries will be fiendishly difficult to implement as IRGC/Basij will resist. </li>
<li>Despite decapitation of Iran's leadership, IRGC/Basij's fight persists, like Iraq's Ba'athists peopling Iraq's Sunni militias 2003-13. Israel has forced Iran's retreat from Syria-Lebanon-Gaza; reformist Azeri-Kurd Pezeshkian could countenance regime change. </li>
<li>Iran's intransigent forces won't capitulate without gaining an end to sanctions. US-Israel will demand a final end to Iran's nuclear-bomb capability. There's many a slip 'twixt cup&amp;lip. Stay cautious. </li>
</ul>


The worst case scenario (of tit-for-tat attacks on energy infrastructure) has abated for the week ahead. Pezeshkian-Trump deal via intermediaries will be fiendishly difficult to implement as IRGC/Basij will resist. 
Despite decapitation of Iran's leadership, IRGC/Basij's fight persists, like Iraq's Ba'athists peopling Iraq's Sunni militias 2003-13. Israel has forced Iran's retreat from Syria-Lebanon-Gaza; reformist Azeri-Kurd Pezeshkian could countenance regime change. 
Iran's intransigent forces won't capitulate without gaining an end to sanctions. US-Israel will demand a final end to Iran's nuclear-bomb capability. There's many a slip 'twixt cup&amp;lip. Stay cautious. 


US: Iran War Isn't About to End Despite the Improved Atmospherics from Trump

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Pakistan market loses ~9% during the first few minutes of the today's session amidst escalating tensions between US – Israel & Iran. The Pakistan market trading also halted for an hour as a risk management rule set by Pakistan Stock Exchange.</li><li>On Feb 28, 2026, reportedly, the duo of Israel & US carried out strikes in Iran, resulting in killing of the Supreme Leader of the Iran “Syed Ayatollah Khamenei” and other top civil military leaders of the country.</li><li>In response, Iran also aggressively targeted multiple bases of the US in middle eastern countries namely Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, KSA and others and directly attacked Israel over the weekend.</li></ul>

Pakistan market loses ~9% during the first few minutes of the today's session amidst escalating tensions between US – Israel & Iran. The Pakistan market trading also halted for an hour as a risk management rule set by Pakistan Stock Exchange.On Feb 28, 2026, reportedly, the duo of Israel & US carried out strikes in Iran, resulting in killing of the Supreme Leader of the Iran “Syed Ayatollah Khamenei” and other top civil military leaders of the country.In response, Iran also aggressively targeted multiple bases of the US in middle eastern countries namely Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, KSA and others and directly attacked Israel over the weekend.

PAKISTAN MARKET - DOWN 19% FROM RECENT PEAK; IMPLICATIONS OF REGIONAL TURMOIL

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM (up from $245) continue to hold.</li>
<li>We continue to see deterioration in market dynamics. While we expect a consolidation/pullback period, the aforementioned support levels would need to break to confirm the pullback has begun.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook, and recommend buying pullbacks, as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6480-6520 and IWM is above $245</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM (up from $245) continue to hold.
We continue to see deterioration in market dynamics. While we expect a consolidation/pullback period, the aforementioned support levels would need to break to confirm the pullback has begun.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook, and recommend buying pullbacks, as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6480-6520 and IWM is above $245


Monitoring for a Pullback; Still Near-Term Bullish Above 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and will stay that way if 6824 SPX, $610 QQQ, and $245 IWM hold</li>
<li>We see mild deterioration in market dynamics, which may provide a near-term headwind; still, MAG7 earnings and Wednesday's Fed meeting are in the driver's seat, we're seeing a QQQ breakout(buy)</li>
<li>Buy this breakout above $629-$630 on QQQ. But the breakout must hold above 629 or it risks testing the 100-day MA or multi-month uptrend in blue (see chart below)</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and will stay that way if 6824 SPX, $610 QQQ, and $245 IWM hold
We see mild deterioration in market dynamics, which may provide a near-term headwind; still, MAG7 earnings and Wednesday's Fed meeting are in the driver's seat, we're seeing a QQQ breakout(buy)
Buy this breakout above $629-$630 on QQQ. But the breakout must hold above 629 or it risks testing the 100-day MA or multi-month uptrend in blue (see chart below)


Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 Breaking Above Major Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Significant Downside Risk if 6480 Breaks

Significant Downside Risk if 6480 Breaks on $SPX. 10-Year Treasury yield breakout above 4.30%. MOVE index surges to 11-month highs

Vermilion Research

US: Iran War Isn't About to End Despite the Improved Atmospherics from Trump

Pezeshkian-Trump deal via intermediaries is tough, as IRGC/Basij resistance persists despite Iran's decapitated leadership. US-Israel want demise...

Prasenjit K. Basu

PAKISTAN MARKET - DOWN 19% FROM RECENT PEAK; IMPLICATIONS OF REGIONAL TURMOIL

Pakistan market loses ~9% during the first few minutes of the today's session amidst escalating tensions between US – Israel & Iran. The...

Topline Securities

Monitoring for a Pullback; Still Near-Term Bullish Above 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM

Monitoring for a Pullback; Still Near-Term Bullish Above 6824 on $SPX, $610 on $QQQ, and $257 on $IWM. We expect a period of consolidation...

Vermilion Research

Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 Breaking Above Major Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling

Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 $QQQ Major Breakout Above $630 Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling $REMX $TMC $MP $BTQ $IONQ $RGTI $IONQ $QUBT...

Vermilion Research

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