Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.</li>
<li>Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.
Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.
Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength


Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Bill and Chris use LLMs like ChatGPT, Claude, and Google Gemini to gather and synthesize investment outlooks from experts.</li><li>They create an alpha capture portfolio based on sentiment, risk premia, and expected returns across assets, regions, sectors, and ETFs.</li><li>Using their methodology, they design a portfolio of 10-12 ETFs for long and short positions, ensuring a balance of exposures and avoiding overlap in stock constituents.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Bill and Chris use LLMs like ChatGPT, Claude, and Google Gemini to gather and synthesize investment outlooks from experts.They create an alpha capture portfolio based on sentiment, risk premia, and expected returns across assets, regions, sectors, and ETFs.Using their methodology, they design a portfolio of 10-12 ETFs for long and short positions, ensuring a balance of exposures and avoiding overlap in stock constituents.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Inauguration, The Trump Trade & Building Smarter Portfolios with LLMs | The New Barbarians #004

<ul>
<li>Rates and Equities: Fed may pause and further cut rates, impacting equities down the line</li>
<li>Bitcoin's Impact: MicroStrategy adding Bitcoin to its capital structure driving positive skew impact on equity</li>
<li>Portfolio Diversification: Bitcoin and gold showing more upside potential volatility compared to traditional assets like equities and bonds</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Rates and Equities: Fed may pause and further cut rates, impacting equities down the line
Bitcoin's Impact: MicroStrategy adding Bitcoin to its capital structure driving positive skew impact on equity
Portfolio Diversification: Bitcoin and gold showing more upside potential volatility compared to traditional assets like equities and bonds

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Bill Mann & Mark Connors: Rate Volatility: Key to Market Trends | The New Barbarians Podcast - #003

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-states-treasury" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22878:1" rel="noopener">10 Yr US Treasury (GT10 GOVT)</a> has been rising for 4 weeks now, while the  CBOT 10-Year T-Note Futures (ZN) have been falling for 3 weeks.
</li>
<li>US 10 Year Treasuries Yields are currently in an uptrend, but our models indicate soon there will be a (temporary) pullback.</li>
<li>The pullback may offer an opportunity for US Treasuries buyers, to enter/re-enter at a better price. </li>
</ul>


The 10 Yr US Treasury (GT10 GOVT) has been rising for 4 weeks now, while the  CBOT 10-Year T-Note Futures (ZN) have been falling for 3 weeks.

US 10 Year Treasuries Yields are currently in an uptrend, but our models indicate soon there will be a (temporary) pullback.
The pullback may offer an opportunity for US Treasuries buyers, to enter/re-enter at a better price. 


US 10-Year Treasuries OVERSOLD: Where to Enter LONG for a Potential Rally

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in progress.</li>
<li>There is little to do besides continue to ride the trend higher following our 11/5/24 and 11/19/24 Compass reports which both had "Buy the Pullback" in the title</li>
<li>We also continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MAs on the Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in progress.
There is little to do besides continue to ride the trend higher following our 11/5/24 and 11/19/24 Compass reports which both had "Buy the Pullback" in the title
We also continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MAs on the Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)


Improving Market Dynamics; Outlook Remains Bullish; MSCI EAFE, ACWI Ex-US, Europe to Join the Party?

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

Local Tops for 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX, U.S. Dollar $DXY, & WTI Crude Oil $CL_F, Now Tailwinds for Equities; All Major Indexes We Discussed...

Vermilion Research

Inauguration, The Trump Trade & Building Smarter Portfolios with LLMs | The New Barbarians #004

Mark Connors, Christopher Rose, and Bill discuss market sell-offs, portfolio design, stablecoins, Bitcoin concentration, AI research tools, and...

William Mann

Bill Mann & Mark Connors: Rate Volatility: Key to Market Trends | The New Barbarians Podcast - #003

Insights and outlooks for 2025 in economics, markets, and digital assets, including Bitcoin, with projections on market volatility, industry...

William Mann

US 10-Year Treasuries OVERSOLD: Where to Enter LONG for a Potential Rally

As predicted in our insight, the ZN Futures are now rallying and the 10Yr treasuries are falling, this could be an opportunity for US treasuries...

Nico Rosti

Improving Market Dynamics; Outlook Remains Bullish; MSCI EAFE, ACWI Ex-US, Europe to Join the Party?

Improving Market Dynamics; Outlook Remains Bullish $SPX $IWM $QQQ; MSCI EAFE $EFA, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and Europe $HEDJ $FEZ to Join the Party?...

Vermilion Research

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