Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to Random Walks Down David's Mind!</li><li>This issue will be a special one, as I explore the delicate relationship between government spending and economic growth, focusing on the contrasting fiscal approaches of the US and Germany over the past 15 years—and their divergent GDP trajectories.</li><li>Recently, I set out to determine to what extent differing levels of government spending could explain these economic differences.</li></ul>

Welcome to Random Walks Down David's Mind!This issue will be a special one, as I explore the delicate relationship between government spending and economic growth, focusing on the contrasting fiscal approaches of the US and Germany over the past 15 years—and their divergent GDP trajectories.Recently, I set out to determine to what extent differing levels of government spending could explain these economic differences.

RW-03-25: Government Spending and Economic Growth: A Comparison Between Germany and the US

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Podcast delayed, markets rebounded last week, led by news of reduced impact of Trump's tariffs</li><li>Fed slowed pace of quantitative tightening, reducing pressure on treasury market liquidity</li><li>Bitcoin and gold prices fluctuate, Chinese stocks rebound, DAX up 20% year to date, US equities impacted by tariffs and job losses</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Podcast delayed, markets rebounded last week, led by news of reduced impact of Trump's tariffsFed slowed pace of quantitative tightening, reducing pressure on treasury market liquidityBitcoin and gold prices fluctuate, Chinese stocks rebound, DAX up 20% year to date, US equities impacted by tariffs and job lossesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Tariffs, Tapering, and Tectonic Shifts: Markets Brace for April | The New Barbarians #013

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments.</li>
<li>We said don't be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are testing major confluence of support at 5770-5850 and $490-$500, respectively, the first of our potential bottom levels discussed last week.</li>
</ul>


In last week's 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments.
We said don't be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are testing major confluence of support at 5770-5850 and $490-$500, respectively, the first of our potential bottom levels discussed last week.


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences

<ul><li>Episode nine of the Barbarians podcast covers updates on Trump's presidency and economic investing outlooks</li><li>Discussion on the impact of demographics on GDP growth and the innovation in sports like hockey</li><li>Analysis of returns in relation to policy changes and the rise in gold prices, with a reference to a scene from Animal House for perspective.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode nine of the Barbarians podcast covers updates on Trump's presidency and economic investing outlooksDiscussion on the impact of demographics on GDP growth and the innovation in sports like hockeyAnalysis of returns in relation to policy changes and the rise in gold prices, with a reference to a scene from Animal House for perspective.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Markets, Debt, and Gold: A Month Into Trump’s Presidency | The New Barbarians #009

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels.</li>
<li>With that said, we see potential for near-term downside based on several developments discussed below.  It likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation</li>
<li>If SPX remains below 6100 and 6150 resistances, do not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels.
With that said, we see potential for near-term downside based on several developments discussed below.  It likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation
If SPX remains below 6100 and 6150 resistances, do not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670


Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

RW-03-25: Government Spending and Economic Growth: A Comparison Between Germany and the US

Welcome to Random Walks Down David's Mind! This issue will be a special one, as I explore the delicate relationship between government spending...

Contrarian Cashflows

Tariffs, Tapering, and Tectonic Shifts: Markets Brace for April | The New Barbarians #013

Due to market volatility, the podcast will be delayed, with stocks rebounding last week and continuing to rise today, especially with the Dow up...

William Mann

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences

$SPX and $QQQ $NDX Testing Initial Supports at 5770-5850 and $490-$500; Russell 2000 $IWM and Nasdaq 100 Bullish Breadth Divergences (% above 20-...

Vermilion Research

Markets, Debt, and Gold: A Month Into Trump’s Presidency | The New Barbarians #009

Episode nine of Barbarians discusses the first 30 days of Trump's presidency, economic investing outlooks, the impact of the aging boomer...

William Mann

Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish

Near-Term Downside Likely After False Breakouts $SPX $QQQ; Long-Term Still Bullish; Major Tops on $DXY, 10-Year Treasury Yield. If < 6100 and 6150...

Vermilion Research

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