Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Summary earnings estimate for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-gold-corp-d9063e6c-833b-4429-a123-2deceb2fe823" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25341:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Gold (ABX CN)</a> as per Zacks: (a) EPS: $0.87 (+78.1% YoY), and (b) Revenue: $5.1B (+41.6% YoY).</li>
<li>For the quarter ending Sep 25, the firm registered free cash flow growth of 246% QoQ, with EPS jumping 61% QoQ, and Cash Flow from Operations at 80% QoQ.</li>
<li>All Eyes on Blockbuster results, Cost Discipline, Leadership Change, Strategy of Value-over-Volumes, Copper Pivot, Share Buyback &amp; Dividends.</li>
</ul>


Summary earnings estimate for Barrick Gold (ABX CN) as per Zacks: (a) EPS: $0.87 (+78.1% YoY), and (b) Revenue: $5.1B (+41.6% YoY).
For the quarter ending Sep 25, the firm registered free cash flow growth of 246% QoQ, with EPS jumping 61% QoQ, and Cash Flow from Operations at 80% QoQ.
All Eyes on Blockbuster results, Cost Discipline, Leadership Change, Strategy of Value-over-Volumes, Copper Pivot, Share Buyback &amp; Dividends.


Can Barrick Deliver Blockbuster Earnings To Offload Jurisdictional Baggage Discount?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Zijin Gold International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> listed on 30 September and was added to the HSCI via Fast Entry in October and to the MGlobal Index in November.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold</a> was added to Southbound Stock Connect in mid-October and mainland investors now own 25% of the current float.</li>
<li>Cornerstone lock-up expiry on 29 March increases free float significantly. There will be index inclusions in March/June and index upweights in May/June. There could be over US$1.5bn to buy.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) listed on 30 September and was added to the HSCI via Fast Entry in October and to the MGlobal Index in November.

Zijin Gold was added to Southbound Stock Connect in mid-October and mainland investors now own 25% of the current float.
Cornerstone lock-up expiry on 29 March increases free float significantly. There will be index inclusions in March/June and index upweights in May/June. There could be over US$1.5bn to buy.


Zijin Gold (2259 HK): Lock-Up Expiry and Index Inclusions/Upweights; US$1.5bn to Buy by June

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March. There are 2 more stocks that are close on free float market cap.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s float is still below 10% and the stock will need to wait till the June rebalance to be added to the index. </li>
<li>The capping changes and the 2 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.8% and a round-trip trade of US$4.93bn.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 inclusions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March. There are 2 more stocks that are close on free float market cap.

Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s float is still below 10% and the stock will need to wait till the June rebalance to be added to the index. 
The capping changes and the 2 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.8% and a round-trip trade of US$4.93bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 2 Adds Likely; US$5bn Trade

<ul>
<li>
Unmatched Operating Leverage: As gold prices surge, miners’ fixed costs allow for disproportionate earnings growth; Kinross leads this trend with a staggering 259% price rally since early 2025.</li>
<li>
 Self-Funded Strategic Expansion: Kinross’s three new U.S. projects boast a 55% IRR and $4.1 billion NPV, fully funded by robust cash flows without compromising a lean, debt-reduced balance sheet.</li>
<li>
Valuation Disconnect: Despite record production and rising ROE, Kinross trades at a discount to peers, offering a high free cash flow yield and significant untapped upside potential.</li>
</ul>



Unmatched Operating Leverage: As gold prices surge, miners’ fixed costs allow for disproportionate earnings growth; Kinross leads this trend with a staggering 259% price rally since early 2025.

 Self-Funded Strategic Expansion: Kinross’s three new U.S. projects boast a 55% IRR and $4.1 billion NPV, fully funded by robust cash flows without compromising a lean, debt-reduced balance sheet.

Valuation Disconnect: Despite record production and rising ROE, Kinross trades at a discount to peers, offering a high free cash flow yield and significant untapped upside potential.


Kinross Gold Is Self Funded, High Yield & Still Cheap

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Gains in precious metals pricing, driven by global debt and central bank shifts, have resulted in record-setting free cash flow and a more solid financial position.</li>
<li>The company's portfolio diversified heavily this year through the all-cash acquisition of 10 million gold ounces in stable, low-risk Canadan mining assets.</li>
<li>Technical analysis of retail trends and a dramatic operational turnaround point to a potential long-term, leveraged upside for silver-focused GDX components.</li>
</ul>


Gains in precious metals pricing, driven by global debt and central bank shifts, have resulted in record-setting free cash flow and a more solid financial position.
The company's portfolio diversified heavily this year through the all-cash acquisition of 10 million gold ounces in stable, low-risk Canadan mining assets.
Technical analysis of retail trends and a dramatic operational turnaround point to a potential long-term, leveraged upside for silver-focused GDX components.


Fresnillo (FRES LN): Probe Gold Acquisition and $4,400 Gold Drive the MAR26 Option Strategy

United States

VanEck Gold Miners ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. The ETF invests in materials stocks of all cap sizes across the globe. Its largest allocation is in North American companies, principally those domiciled in Canada. The ETF weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology.

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VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)

Can Barrick Deliver Blockbuster Earnings To Offload Jurisdictional Baggage Discount?

Blockbuster results vs. jurisdictional baggage: can record cash flow & a new leadership team finally erase Barrick’s "risk discount" as gold hits...

Mint Finance

Zijin Gold (2259 HK): Lock-Up Expiry and Index Inclusions/Upweights; US$1.5bn to Buy by June

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is up 23% in the last 3 trading sessions and up 73% this calendar year. With gold prices up another 5% overnight, the stock...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 2 Adds Likely; US$5bn Trade

There could be 2 adds in March with another 2 stocks in close range. Capping and constituent changes are estimated to result in turnover of 6.8%...

Brian Freitas

Kinross Gold Is Self Funded, High Yield & Still Cheap

Kinross growth plans are self-funded, delivers high yield and is still cheap. How Kinross turned a 72% gold rally into a 259% gain?

Mint Finance

Fresnillo (FRES LN): Probe Gold Acquisition and $4,400 Gold Drive the MAR26 Option Strategy

Record-setting free cash flow due to gains in precious metals pricing and a diversified portfolio with gold ounces acquisition in Canada may...

Jay Cameron

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Can Barrick Deliver Blockbuster Earnings To Offload Jurisdictional Baggage Discount?

Blockbuster results vs. jurisdictional baggage: can record cash flow & a new leadership team finally erase Barrick’s "risk discount" as gold hits...

Mint Finance

Zijin Gold (2259 HK): Lock-Up Expiry and Index Inclusions/Upweights; US$1.5bn to Buy by June

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is up 23% in the last 3 trading sessions and up 73% this calendar year. With gold prices up another 5% overnight, the stock...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 2 Adds Likely; US$5bn Trade

There could be 2 adds in March with another 2 stocks in close range. Capping and constituent changes are estimated to result in turnover of 6.8%...

Brian Freitas

Kinross Gold Is Self Funded, High Yield & Still Cheap

Kinross growth plans are self-funded, delivers high yield and is still cheap. How Kinross turned a 72% gold rally into a 259% gain?

Mint Finance

Fresnillo (FRES LN): Probe Gold Acquisition and $4,400 Gold Drive the MAR26 Option Strategy

​Record-setting free cash flow due to gains in precious metals pricing and a diversified portfolio with gold ounces acquisition in Canada may...

Jay Cameron

Record-setting free cash flow due to gains in precious metals pricing and a diversified portfolio with gold ounces acquisition in Canada may...