Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Summary earnings estimate for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-gold-corp-d9063e6c-833b-4429-a123-2deceb2fe823" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25341:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Gold (ABX CN)</a> as per Zacks: (a) EPS: $0.87 (+78.1% YoY), and (b) Revenue: $5.1B (+41.6% YoY).</li>
<li>For the quarter ending Sep 25, the firm registered free cash flow growth of 246% QoQ, with EPS jumping 61% QoQ, and Cash Flow from Operations at 80% QoQ.</li>
<li>All Eyes on Blockbuster results, Cost Discipline, Leadership Change, Strategy of Value-over-Volumes, Copper Pivot, Share Buyback &amp; Dividends.</li>
</ul>


Summary earnings estimate for Barrick Gold (ABX CN) as per Zacks: (a) EPS: $0.87 (+78.1% YoY), and (b) Revenue: $5.1B (+41.6% YoY).
For the quarter ending Sep 25, the firm registered free cash flow growth of 246% QoQ, with EPS jumping 61% QoQ, and Cash Flow from Operations at 80% QoQ.
All Eyes on Blockbuster results, Cost Discipline, Leadership Change, Strategy of Value-over-Volumes, Copper Pivot, Share Buyback &amp; Dividends.


Can Barrick Deliver Blockbuster Earnings To Offload Jurisdictional Baggage Discount?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact.</li>
<li>This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.</li>
<li>There are many expected changes for the March 2026 rebal event and we currently see one-way flow of US$1.3bn for March 2026.</li>
</ul>


The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact.
This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
There are many expected changes for the March 2026 rebal event and we currently see one-way flow of US$1.3bn for March 2026.


[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Mar26 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$1.3bn One-Way

<ul>
<li>
Unmatched Operating Leverage: As gold prices surge, miners’ fixed costs allow for disproportionate earnings growth; Kinross leads this trend with a staggering 259% price rally since early 2025.</li>
<li>
 Self-Funded Strategic Expansion: Kinross’s three new U.S. projects boast a 55% IRR and $4.1 billion NPV, fully funded by robust cash flows without compromising a lean, debt-reduced balance sheet.</li>
<li>
Valuation Disconnect: Despite record production and rising ROE, Kinross trades at a discount to peers, offering a high free cash flow yield and significant untapped upside potential.</li>
</ul>



Unmatched Operating Leverage: As gold prices surge, miners’ fixed costs allow for disproportionate earnings growth; Kinross leads this trend with a staggering 259% price rally since early 2025.

 Self-Funded Strategic Expansion: Kinross’s three new U.S. projects boast a 55% IRR and $4.1 billion NPV, fully funded by robust cash flows without compromising a lean, debt-reduced balance sheet.

Valuation Disconnect: Despite record production and rising ROE, Kinross trades at a discount to peers, offering a high free cash flow yield and significant untapped upside potential.


Kinross Gold Is Self Funded, High Yield & Still Cheap

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Zijin Gold International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 5 additions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in December. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> is a surprise add (as are some of the others).</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 additions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in December. Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a surprise add (as are some of the others).
Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>October seasonals, despite their reputation, show most markets with better than 60% odds of finishing higher albeit with meager returns. </li>
<li>Volatility trends have diverged, with implied vols climbing even as realized vols fell, raising questions about early signs of risk sensitivity.</li>
<li>Implied vols on most markets have been trending higher vs the SP500 despite the US being ground zero for policy uncertainty.</li>
</ul>


October seasonals, despite their reputation, show most markets with better than 60% odds of finishing higher albeit with meager returns. 
Volatility trends have diverged, with implied vols climbing even as realized vols fell, raising questions about early signs of risk sensitivity.
Implied vols on most markets have been trending higher vs the SP500 despite the US being ground zero for policy uncertainty.


Monthly Macro Markets (October): Diverging Volatility Trends Highlight Risk Sensitivity

United States

VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF is an exchange traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund's objective is to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the MVIS Junior Gold Miners Index. The Fund will normally invest at least 80% of its total assets in securities that comprise the Fund's benchmark index.

VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)

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VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)

Can Barrick Deliver Blockbuster Earnings To Offload Jurisdictional Baggage Discount?

Blockbuster results vs. jurisdictional baggage: can record cash flow & a new leadership team finally erase Barrick’s "risk discount" as gold hits...

Mint Finance

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Mar26 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$1.3bn One-Way

We expect a number of ADDs to the MV Junior Gold Miners Index in March. It has been a big move. Things may move out of reach quickly too. Recos are...

Travis Lundy

Kinross Gold Is Self Funded, High Yield & Still Cheap

Kinross growth plans are self-funded, delivers high yield and is still cheap. How Kinross turned a 72% gold rally into a 259% gain?

Mint Finance

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

The flows have changed following the non-inclusion of Zijin Gold in the index. With cornerstones locked up till end-March, Zijin Gold will not be...

Brian Freitas

Monthly Macro Markets (October): Diverging Volatility Trends Highlight Risk Sensitivity

Despite October’s reputation for turmoil, history points to gains, though volatility signals have begun to diverge underscoring possible increasing...

John Ley

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