Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Mar 15, 2026

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.

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1. HSI INDEX: Tactical View as Iran War Enters Week 3

Since the of the Iran War the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) has been correcting mildly, for now.
Our model signals the index is NOT oversold yet, which means it could go certainly lower, possibly 3 more weeks, extreme support is at 23367.
Any rally will be short-lived, unless the US suddenly declares the war is over and promises to solve the Strait of Hormuz transit risks. We suggest shorting HSI around 26132.

TSMC (2330 TT) on Tuesday reported combined revenue of NT$718.91 billion for January and February, a roughly +30% jump from the same period a year ago.
The growth is due to global rising demand for AI chips. The company announced a cash dividend of NT$ 6.00 with an ex-dividend date of Mar. 17, 2026.
The stock had pulled back during the start of the Iran War, but has since recovered, it can go higher according to our model.

Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) April26 Futures reached extreme levels on Monday, touching 119.48, then retreated sharply to 95.67 around mid-day Chicago time. That is a -20% retreat, not bullish.
In a previous analysis we predicted prices north of 80 (our model peak was 84), and a multi-week rally. However this sharp retreat may be signaling a resistance.
In this insight we will analyze where NYMEX Crude Oil April 26 futures can find support, in case there is a continued sell-off, to buy if the Iran war continues.

We present a quantitative assessment of short-term (WEEKLY) reversal probabilities across Pan-Asian and U.S. equities and major commodities, with particular emphasis on Crude Oil crude oil and Gold.
Main stock market indices analyzed: Nasdaq-100 INDEX, S&P 500 INDEX, Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX), Hang Seng Index, S&P/ASX 200 INDEX and NIFTY Index.
Quite a simple picture: most US/Pan-Asian stocks and indices we track, Gold, 10 Year US Treasuries Futures and Bitcoin are down. Oil is up, NVIDIA and Amazon are up.

HSI continues to churn within its long-standing range as weak breadth dominates most sectors, with Energy emerging as the lone pocket of strength.
Call activity showed a noticeable pickup early in the week even as overall single stock option volumes remained weak.
Current implied volatility levels continue to sit relatively elevated compared with longer-term historical ranges.