Australia

• Back on the 27th May 2025, dual-listed MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US), a NSW copper miner, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Harmony Gold Mining (HAR SJ).
• Harmony offered US$12.25 for each MAC Share, a 20.7% premium to last close. The A$ consideration for MAC CDIs pivots off the USD/AUD exchange rate around the Record Date. 
• A copy of the Circular is now available, with a shareholder vote on the 29th August. Barrenjoey, the FA, says fair & reasonable. 22.54% of shares out are supportive.

• Context:Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) reported 1H25 results on 30 July, cutting its interim dividend by 16%.
• Rio Tinto’s share price fell more than expected after earnings, exceeding both historical and implied moves. A surprise US copper tariff announcement further amplified the decline.
• This Insight breaks down drivers of the post-earnings move and evaluates the potential outcome of a short-vol strategy — offering a practical case study for refining similar trades.

• Mixi (2121 JP)‘s A$1.20/share cash Offer is now open, with a 50.1% acceptance condition. PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) is supportive. Mixi currently holds 25.15%. ~16% of shares out have tendered.
• Betr Entertainment (BBT AU) (self-alleged superior) scrip Offer, with no minimum acceptance condition, is still out there. betr holds 19.6%. No shareholder has accepted terms. 
• PBH has now tapped the Takeover Panel seeking orders betr clarify its convoluted Offer.

• BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has bumped its PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) offer to 4.219 BBT shares per PBH share. However, the offer’s opening is delayed by the Panel’s interim orders.
• Betr expects that the Board will now recommend its offer. However, the Board has several reasons not to deem Betr’s revised proposal as superior to Mixi Inc (2121 JP).
• Since 3 June, the average gross spread of the revised Betr offer to the Mixi offer is 3.4%. The logical next step is for Mixi to declare its offer unconditional. 

Over the last year, Freelancer has optimised its cost base, invested in AI tooling for internal use and to enhance freelancers’ skills, and focused on product quality to improve demand for its services. In H125, revenue was up 8.0% y-o-y even while gross marketplace volume (GMV) was down 2.4%, as the business improved the take rate in Escrow.com and Loadshift. The company was net cash flow positive in H125 and reported a year-on-year increase in adjusted operating profit. With the cost base right-sized and cash being generated at this level of revenue and GMV, we see scope for significant operational leverage if the company can stimulate GMV growth.

• We believe the expected increased need in North America for critical materials, including anode, is a key factor behind the non-dilutive funding the company has been able to obtain from the DOE, Canada Industrial Research Assistance Program and other sources, as NVX moves forward with the construction of a 2nd Tennessee plant.
• Production capacity of its existing Riverside plant has been pre-sold via multiple offtake agreements and NVX plans to construct a 2nd facility in the state, recently obtaining approval and expected tax credits toward this project.
• NVX has secured additional liquidity, recently entering into a funding agreement for up to US$100m convertible debentures with Yorkville Advisors Global.

• Pureprofile Ltd (ASX:PPL) is a data analytics and consumer insights company underpinned by proprietary technology, servicing business decision makers in brands and media companies as well as market researchers.
• Pureprofile has reported unaudited results for FY25 including revenue growth of 19% to $57.2m (including 17% growth in Q4) and an 18% uplift in EBITDA to $5.2m, both measures within the company’s FY25 guidance range for FY25 revenue to fall between $57m and $58m and for EBITDA, excluding significant items, to be between $5.2m to $5.8m (company release 28 January).
• FY25 revenue and EBITDA were a little behind our forecast for $58.0m and $5.7m respectively but also included the absorption of a $0.15m forex loss and a similar investment in the new Platform solutions rolled out at the end of Q4.

• Context: The Ampol (ALD AU) vs. Woodside (WDS AU) price-ratio has diverged more than two standard deviations from its one-year average – a classic signal for a potential mean-reversion trade.
• Highlights: Going long Ampol (ALD AU) and short Woodside (WDS AU) targets a 7% return if the price ratio reverts to its one-standard-deviation threshold.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Context: The Credit Corp (CCP AU) vs. Magellan Financial (MFG AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: This Insight challenges the typical mean-reversion narrative—strong momentum, company fundamentals, and catalysts suggest the pair could set up either way.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and statistical signals supporting this relative value play.

• The Australian Earnings Season will begin in early August. The S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) suffered a minor setback last week, closed the week down but it’s already rallying higher.
• Our profit target for this rally is 8824 (Q2 resistance target). It could go a bit higher than that but we think it will not reach Q3 resistance at 8996.
• If for some reason the index returns below last week’s Close, the next support level to watch is 8605 (Q2). 

• Auguring well for upcoming interim results, Regal Partners has provided a positive quarterly update showing a rebound for funds under management and performance fees.
• -Regal Partners’ positive June quarter update -FUM and performance fees rebound -Management raises normalised profit guidance -Share price undervalued, suggests Bell Potter

• A medical technology Company focused on the durable healing of wounds and the prevention of amputations announces its trading update for the six months ended 30 June 2025 as well as an update to FY 2025 guidance.
• The Company expects to report revenue for the Period of not less than $31m (H1 2024: $26.3m), representing growth of not less than 18% (H1 2024: 26.4%).
• In the first three months of the Period, the Company recorded revenue growth of approximately 26%. 

• Boss Energy’s FY26 guidance raised doubts over Honeymoon’s ability to reach nameplate capacity, clouding the outlook and raising valuation concerns.
• -Boss Energy’s operational update triggers share price sell-off -Feasibility study assumptions questioned, given FY26 guidance -Nameplate capacity concerns for Honeymoon translate into much lower valuations/price targets -Expert study will commence shortly, but with no end date yet confirmed

• Back on the 28th April 2025, Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), an Aussie gaming supplier, entered into a Scheme with Austria’s Novomatic, Ainsworth’s largest shareholder (52.9%). 
• Novomatic offered A$1.00/share (best & final) – including a permitted dividend – a 35% premium to last close; yet 64% below what Novomatic paid for its controlling stake in 2016.
• The Scheme Doc is now out, with a shareholder vote on the 29th August. The IE says fair & reasonable. They are probably tight. 

• Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) / (RIO LN) / (RIO US) is scheduled to report its 2025 half year results on Wednesday, 30 July 2025 at 16:15 AEST.
• Actionable Option Strategy: Options imply a move noticeably larger than the historical average, opening up a potential short-term yield opportunity. Trade setup discussed in detail.
• Why Read: The Insight outlines yield-focused short-vol strategies, the expected volatility crush, and a forecast for Rio’s interim dividend based on payout policy and timing.

• European markets turned negative as sentiment following the US trade tariiff deal moved to ‘not great’ from ‘better than expected’.
• The Nasdaq edged to a new high, but enthusiasm across the board was weak.
• ASX futures are suggesting a soft start as Australia and other countries remain in the US line of sight for blanket 15%-20% tariffs.

• ReadCloud Limited (ASX:RCL) services the education sector through the provision of digital learning content, proprietary interactive technology, and support for students and educators.
• The company delivered a solid June quarter, recording a 35% increase in cash receipts over the previous corresponding period (pcp) to $4.6m and maintaining disciplined cost control at the operating level.
• Its VET-in-Schools segment continues to grow strongly with a 27% revenue uplift and high gross margins (>90%) to date in FY25.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlight: Currently five pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• The Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU) IE considers Novomatic’s A$1.00 to be fair and reasonable, as it falls within its A$0.93-1.07 valuation range. The vote is on 29 August.
• The offer has drawn opposition from several notable shareholders. There remains at least a 50% chance that the scheme vote fails.  
• Novomatic can switch to an alternative takeover offer, which limits the downside risk. At the last close and for a 26 September payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.5%/8.2%.  

• Trade deals, central bank meetings, earnings season (US & Europe) with first local releases later in the week, as well as the all-important June quarter CPI print domestically will set the mood and tone for the ASX200 this week.
• ASX200 futures are pointing to a slightly weaker start, but the overnight, EU-US trade deal may boost sentiment.

• I tally 38 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week – Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)‘s Tender Offer. Although I’m expecting an Offer for Cromwell Property (CMW AU).
• Key updates/news took place on Insignia Financial (IFL AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP).

• A brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week.

• We believe the expected increased need in North America for critical materials, including anode, is a key factor behind the non-dilutive funding the company has been able to obtain from the DOE, Canada Industrial Research Assistance Program and other sources, as NVX moves forward with the construction of a 2nd Tennessee plant.
• Production capacity of its existing Riverside plant has been pre-sold via multiple offtake agreements and NVX plans to construct a 2nd facility in the state, recently obtaining approval and expected tax credits toward this project.
• NVX has secured additional liquidity, recently entering into a funding agreement for up to US$100m convertible debentures with Yorkville Advisors Global.

• Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) received a subpoena from the SEC seeking various documents and information primarily relating to the company’s disclosures regarding the development of prostate cancer therapeutic candidates.
• Telix is in the process of responding to the information request. The company has elected to notify the Australian Securities and Investments Commission of the SEC’s information request.  
• SEC subpoena will not affect the normal business operation of Telix. While the matter is ongoing, Telix will continue clinical development programs for its prostate cancer therapy candidates.

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
• Currently, a market consultation is being conducted and there could be several significant changes made to the index selection process.
• The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th September 2025.

• Context: The Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH AU) vs. ResMed (RMD AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: The long position is supported by higher growth aligning well with the statistical analysis. The trade faces some event risk due to an upcoming earnings announcement.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• The AI trade took the S&P500 and Nasdaq to new highs (again) with markets in Japan and Europe rallying also.
• The Australian market stumbled on Governor Bullock’s hawish tone yesterday.
• ASX200 futures are pointing to another day of net weakness.

• In today’s edition: -Ask FNArena -Review All-Weather Model Portfolio -Recent Updates On Expert Views -Best Buys & Conviction Calls

• The Coles Group’s financial results for the first half of fiscal year 2025 present a mixed picture of robust revenue growth and cost management challenges.
• The company reported a 3.7% increase in group sales revenue, reaching over $23 billion.
• This growth was bolstered by their strategic focus on core business execution, value campaigns, and strong seasonal trade during events like Christmas and Halloween.

• A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.

• On 22 July, Insignia Financial (IFL AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with CC Capital at A$4.80, a 4.0% discount to its previous non-binding offer of A$5.00.
• The key conditions are regulatory (APRA, FIRB, ACCC, FCA) and shareholder approvals. Shareholders should be supportive as the offer resulted from an auction. 
• The offer is reasonable in comparison to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transaction multiples. The timing of regulatory approvals is the key risk.

• CleanSpace Holdings Ltd (ASX:CSX) is a designer and manufacturer of respiratory protection equipment and consumables.
• Specialising in powered air purifying respirators (PAPRs), CleanSpace is known for its compact, lightweight, ergonomic units that do away with the need for belts and hoses to provide filtered air to workers.
• A scan through competitor websites reveals that belt and hose units remain the dominant design, providing CSX with a real opportunity to take market share (RaaS estimates CSX has ~1.2% of the global industrial market in FY25).

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• Virgin Australia ((VGN)) is back for another go (which brings the name into question), having entered administration as a result of covid before being revived under private equity ownership.
• Australia’s second airline has returned to listed life with a simplified portfolio and strategy that, Ord Minnett believes, should resonate well with investors attracted to the relatively high quality/low risk Australian domestic aviation market.
• The broker sees a compelling earnings outlook into FY26, with relatively stable fares, falling fuel expenses, and transformation benefits. 

• Extra Edition of the Broker Call Report

• BHP Group’s fourth quarter operational report resulted in record iron ore and copper production for FY25.
• Weaker commodity pricing and delays at Jansen potash provided negative offsets

• Woolworths Group’s half-year financial performance for FY 2025 exhibits a mix of achievements and challenges, emphasizing the competitive and dynamic retail landscape.
• The company’s diverse portfolio, including Australian Food, New Zealand Food, BIG W, and other segments, reflected varied growth patterns influenced by external and internal factors.
• Starting with the positives, Woolworths Group achieved a 3.7% increase in group sales, reaching $35.9 billion, with eCommerce sales showcasing robust growth of 20%.

• WiseTech Global Limited, a developer of cloud-based software solutions for the international and domestic logistics industries, recently released its first half of 2025 financial results.
• The company reported revenue of $381 million, marking a 17% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with an organic revenue growth rate of 15%.
• CargoWise, their flagship logistics platform, exhibited strong performance with organic revenue growth of 20% and recurring revenue contributing 99% of total CargoWise revenue.

• REA Group Limited has reported strong growth in its third quarter of the fiscal year, underscored by significant yield increases across its operations.
• The company posted a 12% rise in revenue to $374 million, alongside a 12% boost in EBITDA, excluding associates, reaching $199 million.
• These results reflect favorable market conditions and strategic initiatives implemented by the company.

• Brambles Limited’s performance for the first half of 2025 presents a mixed picture, combining robust growth with specific challenges.
• The company demonstrated a 4% increase in sales, equally contributed by price realization and volume growth, along with a notable 10% uplift in underlying profit.
• This growth is largely credited to the U.S. pallets business, reflecting successful net new business wins.

• The latest financial results for Transurban display a mix of positive operational advances and some challenges that merit attention.
• The company reported a promising 6.2% increase in proportional toll revenue.
• Over the same period, cost-cutting measures contributed to a 3% decline in expenses, which translated into a 9.4% rise in operating EBITDA and a 220 basis point enhancement in the EBITDA margin.

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• Warriedar Resources Limited (ASX:WA8) is an emerging gold and antimony developer whose flagship Golden Range project hosts ~2.3moz in AuEq resources in the prolific gold-producing Murchison region of Western Australia.
• Since the acquisition of the project in CY23, WA8 has expanded the gold resource and delineated a globally significant antimony resource which is also contained in the core Ricciardo deposit.
• Whilst the gold resource alone could support a commercial development, the overlapping antimony resource not only increases the economic value, it adds a strategic value to the project given the supply shortages and trade restrictions affecting this commodity.