Australia

• The board of Iress Ltd (IRE AU), a trading and wealth management software provider, has denied reports in an Australian article concerning a possible takeover from Blackstone. 
• The article said that Blackstone was reportedly back in talks for a bid “that could be worth between $11 and $12 per share“. Iress’ share price promptly popped 8% yesterday. 
• Iress is still very much in play as it “continues to engage with multiple parties“. 

• Reportedly, Brookfield and Singapore’s GIC will make an Offer for National Storage REIT (NSR AU), Australia and New Zealand’s largest landlord of self-storage sites .
• The AFR is reporting that Brookfield/GIC are on the cusp of launching a bid around NTA.  NSR entered into a trading halt this morning. 
• Earlier this year, key peer Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) fielded an NBIO from Ki Corporation/Public Storage (PSA US) at a ~3% premium to NTA; however, Ki/PSA ultimately walked. 

• Horizon Minerals Limited (ASX:HRZ) is an emerging junior gold producer with 1.8moz of gold resources located around the Kalgoorlie and Coolgardie regions of Western Australia.
• HRZ has announced a production update for both the Boorara and Phillips Find JV mining operations.
• The update details progression on mining and processing at both projects as well as further detail on forward expectations which we think helps guide investors towards understanding ultimate outcomes.

• Island Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX:ILA) is an antiviral therapeutics company targeting infectious diseases.
• The company has made two recent announcements that improve its chances of selling Galidesivir for Marburg to the US government, ahead of potential FDA clearance of the drug.
• On 20 November 2025 it announced the appointment of leading Washington D.C. based federal government affairs and lobbying firm, Todd Strategy Group (TSG), to support US government engagement.

• Monadelphous is a leading Australian engineering group specializing in construction and maintenance services for the resources, energy, and infrastructure sectors. Its dual-division structure allows it to capture opportunities across the full asset lifecycle.
• The company is experiencing a period of strong growth, driven by significant contract wins in its core markets, particularly in iron ore and energy. A robust project pipeline and strategic acquisitions are expected to support continued revenue momentum.
• While exposed to the cyclical nature of the resources sector and persistent skilled labor shortages, Monadelphous‘ strong balance sheet, long-term client relationships with blue-chip companies, and diversification into renewable energy and critical minerals position it to navigate market uncertainties.

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• Qube Holdings (QUB AU) has received a non-binding proposal from Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) at A$5.20 per share, a 27.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
• The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 1 February 2026 (or 15 February under certain circumstances). A scheme offer would be conditional on FIRB and ACCC approval. 
• While the offer represents an all-time high, the scarcity value of high-quality infrastructure assets could spur a competing bid from others, such as Brookfield, which holds pre-emptive rights at Patrick.

• Monash IVF (MVF AU), a fertility provider, has announced, and summarily rejected, a A$0.80/share non-binding indicative Offer from Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) & Genesis Capital.
• The indicative terms are a ~31% premium to last close. And ~7.7x FY25 EV/EBITDA. Chairman Richard Davis declared terms “opportunistic in timing and materially undervalues the company“. 
• Genesis/Soul Patts collectively hold 19.6% in MVF.  MVF’s share price has cratered this year after a woman was mistakenly implanted with the wrong embryo. The CEO subsequently stepped down. 

• Context: The Bluescope Steel (BSL AU) vs. Sims Metal Management (SGM AU) price-ratio has deviated two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Bluescope (BSL AU) and short Sims (SGM AU) targets a 6% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Shares in TechnologyOne reacted negatively on the release of a record FY25 performance, as not all metrics met elevated expectations and as the global technology sector is de-rated.
• -TechnologyOne delivers record FY25 metrics -Profit exceeds guidance, strong UK growth -Market concerns on softer than expected ARR and NRR -Global de-rating for the sector equally impacts on updated valuations/price targets

• The AFR reports that a mystery buyer, believed to be Genesis Capital, will launch a takeover proposal for Monash IVF (MVF AU) at A$0.80, a 31.1% premium to the last close.
• On Friday, the mystery buyer acquired a pre-bid stake of 6.01% of outstanding shares at A$0.80. The timing is opportunistic as the shares are down 51% YTD.
• It is unclear whether Genesis is aiming to launch a scheme or an off-market takeover offer. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is light. 

• Qube Holdings (QUB AU), a logistics and infrastructure play, has announced a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of Macquarie Group (MQG AU).
• That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal “follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value.” Dividends paid will be netted.
• Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.

• On 21 November, Webjet Group (WJL AU) disclosed a non-binding takeover offer from BGH Capital at A$0.91 per share, a 1.1% premium to the Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU) offer.
• BGH’s takeover offer is conditional on a 75% minimum acceptance condition, which is too high a threshold to meet. The acceptance condition is likely to be revised to 50.1%.     
• Helloworld has justification to engage in a bidding war, particularly due to potential synergies and multiple re-rating. I would expect at least another round of bids. 

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently twelve pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Iron ore prices have remained rock-solid at 104 USD/ton, but the fundamentals are on slightly shaky ground as Rio Tinto (RIO US) commenced shipments from its Simandou project. 
• Chinese steel production and apparent demand in October tracked an extremely weak 12%/12.5% YoY, with annualized production rates now 864 million tons, and lending (TSF) was lacklustre at -42% YoY.
• We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) despite the negative sentiment, due to its production growth profile from 4 million to 10 million tons over the next 3 years. 

• Shares in TechnologyOne reacted negatively on the release of a record FY25 performance, as not all metrics met elevated expectations as as the global technology sector is de-rated.
• -TechnologyOne delivers record FY25 metrics -Profit exceeds guidance, strong UK growth -Market concerns on softer than expected ARR and NRR -Global de-rating for the sector equally impacts on updated valuations/price targets

• DXN Ltd is a specialist in the design, manufacturing, and operation of prefabricated modular data centers, positioning itself as an agile solution provider in the growing edge computing and data infrastructure market.
• The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 49% increase to $16.0 million in FY25, driven by its Modular Division and the launch of a new Data Centre as a Service (DCaaS) division aimed at generating recurring revenue.
• Despite revenue growth, DXN remains unprofitable, reporting a net loss of $2.3 million in FY25. The company’s financial stability is a key concern, underscored by persistent losses and negative operating cash flow in the most recent fiscal year.

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• Future Metals NL is an exploration-stage company focused on its 100% owned Panton PGM-Nickel Project in Western Australia, which is considered the highest-grade PGM deposit in Australia.
• The Panton project has a significant JORC Mineral Resource Estimate of 4.5 million ounces of PGM and 185,000 tonnes of nickel, positioning it as a globally significant PGM resource outside of the primary supply jurisdictions of Russia and South Africa.
• While the project shows robust economics in a December 2023 Scoping Study, the company is currently pre-revenue and faces the typical risks of an exploration company, including financing, development, and commodity price risks.

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• Keybridge Capital is a small, opportunistic investment company with a highly volatile financial track record, characterized by significant swings in revenue and profitability.
• The company’s strategy involves a diversified portfolio of equity and debt investments, with a recent history of engaging in specialized situations like stablecoin arbitrage and activist investing, exemplified by a profitable exit from Magellan Global Fund Options.
• Extreme financial volatility, negative cash flows, a no-dividend policy to date, and a highly concentrated management structure present significant risks for investors, despite a recent profitable year and very low valuation multiples.

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• RMA Global operates a digital marketing and reputation management platform, RateMyAgent, for real estate professionals, with its primary revenue generated from agent subscriptions and promotional products.
• The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, particularly in the US market, and has successfully reduced its net loss in the most recent fiscal year.
• Despite revenue growth, the company remains unprofitable and has a history of negative operating and free cash flow, indicating a continued reliance on external funding or cash reserves to sustain operations.

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• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect two changes for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200.
• The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.

• Rising demand for commodities testing, supported by the soaring gold price, provided a strong first half for ALS Ltd, and it appears there’s more to come.
• -ALS Ltd first half beat expectations -Better than expected growth in minerals testing -Junior miners set to begin exploration, increasing demand -Guidance seen as conservative

• Context: The JB Hi-Fi (JBH AU) vs. Wesfarmers  (WES AU) price ratio has deviated more than three standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long JB Hi-Fi (JBH AU) and short Wesfarmers (WES AU) targets a 6% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Webjet Group (WJL AU) disclosed a non-binding scheme offer from Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU) at A$0.90 per share, a 12.5% premium to the rejected BGH/Weiss offer of A$0.80.
• The Board has granted due diligence. The offer is unattractive compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges.    
• The scheme offer is a non-starter and likely to morph into a PointsBet-type situation. Therefore, the potential result is conditional takeover bids from BGH/Weiss and Helloworld.

• November 21st marks the close of the review period for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) December rebalance. Changes will be announced on December 5th. 
• Implementation of changes begins December 19th, read Brian Freitas‘ recent insight to learn about the 7 possible modifications to the ASX 200.
• Passive tracker flows can significantly move markets around index rebalance dates. In this insight, we leverage our models to identify critical support and resistance zone (the index is very OVERSOLD).

• Aussie gold and copper explorer GBM Resources (GBZ AU) has announced plans to seek a secondary listing in Hong Kong.
• GBM has entered a memorandum of understanding with its major shareholder, Wise Walkers Limited, which will fund all listing-related expenses – to be repaid upon a successful listing.
• The listing is, ostensibly, to “broaden its investor base“; however Zijin Gold (2259 HK)‘s barnstorming IPO debut probably spurred on this development. 

• Context: The Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) vs. Woodside Energy Group (WDS AU) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) and short Woodside Energy Group (WDS AU) targets a 7% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Mader Group’s casual workforce model, diversification into segments beyond mining maintenance, and strong earnings growth rate, have Macquarie initiating with Outperform.
• -Mader Group is Australia’s largest provider of heavy equipment maintenance -Yet underpenetrated in Australia’s mining industry -Attractive model for employees, solid growth trajectory -Macquarie initiates with Outperform

• The Africa-focused lithium exploration and development Company targeting the delivery of Ghana’s first lithium mine updates on the Mining Lease Ewoyaa Lithium Project.
• The Mining Lease has been submitted to the Parliament of Ghana to be considered, as per due process for ratification.
• The mining lease provides exclusive rights to carry out mining and commercial production activities at Ewoyaa for an initial 15-year period.

• RaaS Research Group’s senior analyst Graeme Carson interviews Cash Converters International’s CEO/MD Sam Budiselik following the recently announced proposed $37m acquisition of 29 stores.

• Back on the 13th October, RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU), a mining software technology provider, entered into a Scheme with Caterpillar Inc (CAT US).
• Caterpillar offered A$5/share (the same as in the previously announced NBIO), a 32.8% premium to undisturbed. FIRB and ACCC approvals are conditions. FIRB won’t be an issue. 
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 19th December, and expected implementation on the 18th Feb 2026. The IE (Grant Thornton) says “fair & reasonable“. 

• Context: The BHP Group (BHP AU) vs. Rio Tinto (RIO AU) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long BHP Group (BHP AU) and short Rio Tinto (RIO AU) targets a 4% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• In Webjet (WJL AU): Undisclosed Buyer Buying,  rumours surfaced earlier this year of an undisclosed buyer with ~5%. On the 12th May, Helloworld (HLO AU) emerged with a 5.015% stake.
• On the same day, Gary Weiss/BGH, collectively holding 10.76%, launched a A$0.80/share NBIO, which was subsequently rejected. Undeterred, Weiss/BGH has called for an EGM (21st November) to spill the board.
• Helloworld has now tabled a A$0.90/share non-binding Offer, by way of Scheme. The 1H26 dividend of A$0.002/share will be added. Helloworld currently holds 17.27%. Weiss/BGH hold 17.75%.

• Guzman Y Gomez is a high-growth, Mexican-themed Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) chain with a rapidly expanding store network, primarily in Australia, and ambitious long-term growth targets.
• The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with significant revenue growth and a recent shift to profitability, driven by new store openings and robust comparable sales growth.
• Valuation appears stretched compared to peers, and key risks include intense competition, execution on aggressive expansion plans (particularly in the US), and a potential share overhang from the expiry of IPO lockups.

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• RPMGlobal is the subject of a binding acquisition proposal from Caterpillar at A$5.00 per share, representing a significant premium and a strategic move by Caterpillar to enhance its mining technology ecosystem.
• The company has successfully transitioned its business model to focus on high-margin, enterprise software solutions, divesting its advisory division to streamline operations and improve revenue predictability.
• While the acquisition offers an attractive valuation, the deal is subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals, with a high retail shareholder base posing a potential risk to the shareholder vote headcount test.

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• Island Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX:ILA) is an antiviral therapeutics company targeting infectious diseases.
• The company on 17 November 2025 released a presentation in which it detailed the much-anticipated feedback from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on its Galidesivir programme for Marburg.
• The feedback was very positive for ILA in that two outstanding matters were resolved: 1.

• There could be 2 changes each for the ASX50 and ASX100 indices and 7 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December.
• Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
• The forecast adds have outperformed (and continue to outperform) the forecast deletes to the S&P/ASX 100 Index and the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 

• Back on the 8th June 2022, IFM Global Infrastructure Fund announced a 15% stake in Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) (ATLAX), and subsequently floated the possibility of a non-binding proposal. 
• However, IFM’s request, at the time, for limited company information on ATLAX , a US/Europe toll-road play, came to nought.
• Undeterred, IFM continues to accumulate shares. Reportedly, IFM now holds ~35% after picking up 1.9% this morning.

• The RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU) IE considers Caterpillar Inc (CAT US)’s scheme offer at A$5.00 to be fair and reasonable, as it falls within its valuation range (A$4.43-A$5.12).
• The key scheme conditions are shareholder approval, FIRB approval, and ACCC approval. Regulatory approvals are expected to be forthcoming, and the scheme vote carries a low risk.
• The offer is attractive. At the last close and for an 18 February 2026 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.5%/10.2%.  

• TPG Telecom (TPG AU) is looking to raise around US$359m from a primary placement.
• This is a large deal to digest, representing 111.2 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 7.8% of total shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Since completing its merger with Mandalay Resources on 5 August, Alkane has 1) provided guidance for the combined group for FY26, 2) updated group reserves and resources and 3) released its Quarterly Activities Report for Q126. In the wake of these announcements, we forecast that the ‘new Alkane’ will produce c 158.8koz (plus c 4.3koz AuE in the form of antimony) in FY26 (cf 70.1koz in FY25) and that the merger will prove transformative to both its scale and valuation, including achieving the size required for inclusion in the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and the ASX 300 index (now confirmed).

• Cash Converters International (ASX:CCV) is a consumer finance company that operates as both a service provider and a network owner and franchisor of second-hand retail and financial services stores in Australia and internationally.
• CCV is currently executing a clearly stated growth strategy involving the reshaping of its personal finance business and growing its corporately-owned store network through acquisitions in Australia and offshore.
• This strategy has just been accelerated through the proposed $37m acquisition of a further 29 Australian stores, expanding the corporate ownership footprint to 121, or 80% of all stores across the country.

• Airtasker Limited (ASX:ART) is an online marketplace for local services, connecting people and businesses who need work done with people who want to work.
• ART has announced a $10m capital raise (at $0.30/share), with at least half earmarked for additional cash marketing spend in the US and UK.
• In parallel ART has added an additional US$5m (A$7.6m) in media capital from iHeartRadio in the US in the form of a convertible note.

• Cobalt Blue Holdings (COB) is a pure-play cobalt development company focused on its flagship Broken Hill Cobalt Project (BHCP) in New South Wales, Australia, positioning it as a significant, ethical, and non-Congolese source of cobalt for the burgeoning battery market.
• The company’s strategy is centered around an integrated mine-to-refinery model, aiming to produce high-purity cobalt sulphate suitable for direct use in lithium-ion battery cathodes, thereby capturing a larger portion of the value chain. The development of the Kwinana Cobalt Refinery is a key pillar of this strategy.
• While the long-term demand outlook for cobalt is robust, driven by the electric vehicle and energy storage revolutions, COB faces significant project execution risks, commodity price volatility, and future financing hurdles to bring its large-scale, capital-intensive projects to fruition.

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• Orica posted a strong FY25 result and forecasts improving growth across all three business segments through FY26.
• -Orica’s FY25 result solid, slightly ahead of consensus -Specialty Chemicals and Digital Solutions now primary drivers -Around half of earnings stem from gold and copper sectors -Adds incremental $100m to recently completed $400m buyback program

• Australian banks’ November earnings triggered sharp and divergent share-price reactions, widening performance dispersion across the sector.
• Based on the most recent moves, ANZ (ANZ AU) and Westpac (WBC AU) appear overvalued versus peers and potentially overbought, while two other banks screen as comparatively oversold.
• Statistical analysis identifies sixteen actionable opportunities for quantitative traders targeting mean reversion plays within the sector.

• Horizon Minerals Limited (ASX:HRZ) is an emerging junior gold producer with 1.8moz of gold resources located around the Kalgoorlie and Coolgardie regions of Western Australia.
• HRZ has announced a deal to sell the Lake Johnston Project for a total consideration of $35m to Forrestania Resources Ltd (ASX:FRS) which is expected to complete in January 2026.
• The deal is accretive to HRZ given we had nil value ascribed to the project whilst the consideration is greater than what HRZ paid (~$30m) to acquire Poseidon Nickel (ASX:POS), predominately for Black Swan.

• I tally 39 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below
• Five new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: China Shengmu Milk (1432 HK), Forum Engineering (7088 JP), Star Micronics (7718 JP), Paris Miki (7455 JP), and Maruwn (9067 JP). 
• Key updates/news also took place on: AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Seven West Media (SWM AU), and Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK).