Australia

• Over the past three weeks, the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has staged one of the strongest rebounds since the early April Trump-tariff shock, rallying approximately +15% from its 16-month low.
• Several factors are driving the rally: recent passive flow activity, as highlighted by Brian Freitas but also broad-based sector strength, with notable gains in energy, healthcare, and consumer staples.
• Despite a positive outlook, our models indicate the index is currently OVERBOUGHT. This insight breaks down the key details.

• SGX Iron Ore Futures fell 4.3% WoW to $95.85/ton, closing just above S2 support as bearish momentum strengthened
• Prices are trading below all key moving averages, with a recent death cross and RSI at 38.17, indicating continued downside risk
• Managed Money and Physicals turned net short, while total futures and options open interest rose 4.2% WoW, reflecting rising bearish positioning

Canyon Resources has received an approval that grants it land access at the established port of Douala. With rail access already secured through the investment in Camrail, this is the final infrastructure agreement required for the development of the Minim Martap project. It also paves the way for the company’s majority shareholder, Eagle Eye Asset Holdings (EEA), to exercise its 500m options that will bring in A$35m. Access to rail and port significantly de-risks the project, supporting Canyon’s target of first shipment in H126. We maintain our project level NPV at US$566m (A$889m).

• Pureprofile Ltd (ASX:PPL) is a data analytics and consumer insights company underpinned by proprietary technology, servicing business decision makers in brands and media companies as well as market researchers.
• On April 30, Pureprofile reported a 16% increase in Q3 FY25 revenue to $12.7m and a 16% increase in Q3 EBITDA to $0.6m versus the previous corresponding period (pcp).
• Australia/New Zealand (ANZ) revenue grew 10% on the pcp to $6.6m while Rest of World (RoW) jumped 24% to $6.1m, or 48% of total revenue.

• • 1Q25 net production was 246 boe/d.
• This is in line with our expectations.
• ADX held A$6.7 mm in cash at the end of March.

• Wrkr Ltd (ASX:WRK) offers compliance solutions for Australian superannuation contributions and payroll including member onboarding, super payments, messaging and employee validation.
• WRK’s Q3 FY25 activities report demonstrates a continued balance of cost management (up just 3% against Q3 FY24) against lumpy cash receipts (down 6% against Q3 FY24 but up 39% on Q2 FY25) amidst continued milestone/project work, which should drive revenue in FY26.
• This quarter saw the receipt of a $328k R&D tax credit but also a record capitalised IP spend of $985k as new product development and systems integration continues.

• On the 26th Feb 2025, PointsBet (PBH AU), an Australian/Canadian online wagering platform, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Mixi (2121 JP) at A$1.06/share, a 27.7% premium to undisturbed.
• PointsBet rebuffed key (smaller) rival Betr Entertainment (BBT AU)‘s (previously known as  BlueBet) ostensibly higher non-binding cash/scrip; and refuted Betr’s claim that it’s Offer was fully funded.  
• Betr has returned with, what appears to be, an all cash offer of A$1.20/share, fully-funded/underwritten. Betr’s Offer still requires confirmatory due diligence. Importantly, Betr has also acquired a 19.9% stake.

• BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has returned with a non-binding proposal for PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), which it claims is worth A$1.20 to A$1.50+ per PBH share.
• Betr has also acquired a 19.9% stake, which can effectively block Mixi Inc (2121 JP)’s A$1.06 scheme offer. Betr’s offer is higher primarily due to questionable assumptions in the presentation.
• Betr has secured over A$260 million in cash funding. Mixi can either let the scheme fail or switch to an off-market takeover offer.

• PBoC holds the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%; both historic lows as trade tensions persist. 
• China’s Politburo vows faster bond issuance, lose monetary policy, and job protection measures to counter persistent economic challenges.
• Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports increased in late April, ending a three-week decline, signaling softening near-term demand.

• Zacks Small-Cap Research Note for Novonix Ltd (NVX)

• Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU) entered into a scheme implementation deed with Novomatic, its controlling shareholder, at A$1.00 per share, a 35.1% premium to the unaffected price.
• The final offer is unattractive. Kanen Wealth Management opposes the offer. The lack of irrevocables from Spheria and Allan Gray adds to the vote risk.   
• Cognizant of the scheme vote risk, Novomatic has the option to switch to an alternative takeover offer, which has a 75% minimum acceptance condition, thereby limiting the downside risk.

• There was big passive buying in Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) in March from S&P/ASX trackers following the completion of the merger with Chemist Warehouse Group.
• Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) should be added to a global index in May and those passive trackers will have a lot of stock to buy.
• While there will be positioning in the stock, it appears lighter than the estimated passive buying. Shorts are being covered and that could provide a boost.

• Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), an Aussie gaming supplier, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Austria’s Novomatic, Ainsworth’s largest shareholder (52.9%). A from Offer has been long rumoured.
• Novomatic is offering A$1.008/share (best & final), a 35% premium to last close. The Offer does NOT require FIRB signing off. The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards.
• Expect shareholder pushback. The Offer consideration is 64% below what Novomatic paid for its controlling stake in 2016.

• Iron ore prices experienced a modest WoW increase of 0.2%, reflecting easing trade tensions as the US considers reducing some of the stringent tariffs previously imposed.
• China’s Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 22% YoY, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.
• China’s March steel production rose 5% YoY to 92.8 million tons, underscoring its vital role in the market, contributing 56% to total global production.

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and one change for ASX 200. One month left in the reference period.
• Our long basket is up 14% vs shorts in a month. Index Rebal is coming back. ASX Index final index changes will be announced publicly on 6th June 2025.

• Woodside Energy Group Limited delivered a strong financial performance in its full year 2024 results, highlighting both the positives and negatives impacting the company.
• On the positive side, Woodside achieved a record annual production of 194 million barrels of oil equivalent, driven by strong performance at its Sangomar project.
• The company reported a net profit after tax of $3.6 billion, an improvement from the previous year, and declared a fully franked dividend of USD 1.22 per share.

• SGX IO Futures gained $2.69/ton this week, closing at $100.24/ton on April 23, breaking above the R1 level of $99.00/ton.
• Managed Money flipped to net short while Physicals turned net long, signaling a major positioning shift
• MACD divergence and RSI at 51.09 reflect building bullish momentum despite prices trading below long-term moving averages.

• Fenix Resources (ASX:FEX) is a junior iron ore producer based in the Midwest region of Western Australia (WA).
• FEX has been producing iron ore from the Iron Ridge project since 2020 with a total of 5.7Mt produced to date.
• Going forward, FEX is planning to expand its production rate from ~1.3Mtpa to 4.0Mtpa by the end of CY25 through the ramp-up of production at the recently restarted Shine Mine and the currently under construction mine at Beebyn-W11.

• GTI Energy Ltd (ASX:GTR) is focused on the development of three uranium projects located across Wyoming and Utah, USA.
• Lo Herma (Wyoming) is the current flagship project for the company.
• The company’s Wyoming projects are amenable to in-situ recovery (ISR) with GTR progressing a scoping study at the Lo Herma project which is evaluating the economic feasibility of a potential ISR mining operation.

• Kaiser Reef Ltd (ASX:KAU) is undergoing a transformation as it acquires the Henty Gold mine from Catalyst Minerals (ASX:CYL) which should drive a step change in the production profile of the company from <12kozpa to 37kozpa (proforma) with scope to increase to 50kozpa+ in the medium term.
• Post the funding package completed alongside the acquisition, KAU has $27.2m in cash which can support the incremental investments into its mining operations to achieve the stated production targets.
• Post the Henty Gold acquisition, Kaiser Reef Ltd (ASX:KAU) has the potential to become a 50kozpa+ producer over the medium term with 30kozpa+ from the Henty mine and 20kozpa+ from the A1 Gold mine.

• Legacy Minerals Holdings Ltd (ASX:LGM) is a prospect generator and exploration company with a portfolio of projects across NSW.
• Overall, LGM has nine projects whereby four are under joint venture with other major and junior explorers which provide additional funding to increase the level of concurrent exploration activity across its projects.
• Like 2024, 2025 is set to be another productive year for LGM with multiple, funded, high-impact drill programmes aiming to make a significant discovery in addition to progressing development options at Drake.

• Evolution Mining‘s stock price has moved higher over the last year as Gold has gone on a big run. The increased market cap should result in a global index inclusion.
• Evolution Mining (EVN AU) has performed in line with its peers over the last year and trades in line with the group on most valuation parameters.
• Positioning has jumped in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) and its peers over the last couple of months. The index inclusion could result in outperformance over the next few weeks.

Recce is raising up to A$15.8m in equity fundraising through a now-completed A$5.0m share placement and an entitlement offer for remaining shareholders that could raise up to an additional A$10.8m in gross proceeds. Both rounds of financing are priced at A$0.28 per new share. We anticipate the total funding should support Recce’s operations into Q226 (Q4 CY25) as its near-term focus lies on advancing R327 topical gel (R327G) through registration-enabling pivotal studies. We expect Recce to start a registrational Indonesian Phase III study of R327G for the treatment of diabetic foot infections (DFIs) in the coming weeks. We now obtain an rNPV valuation of A$615.1m and our per-share valuation adjusts to A$2.51 per share (vs A$2.68 previously), reflecting the increase in shares outstanding after the placement.