Category

Australia

Jan 16
0

Daily Brief Australia: Avjennings Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • AVJennings (AVJ AU): Ho Bee Emerges with a Competing Offer

AVJennings (AVJ AU): Ho Bee Emerges with a Competing Offer

By Arun George

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Jan 15
0

Daily Brief Australia: Avjennings Ltd, Pointerra Ltd, Iron Ore and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • AVJennings (AVJ AU): Ho Bee’s Superior Proposal
  • US$2m contract extension underlines Pointerra3D benefit
  • [SGX Iron Ore Weekly 2025/02] Bearish Sentiments Softening as Vols Trend Lower

AVJennings (AVJ AU): Ho Bee’s Superior Proposal

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 28th November, AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU), a reputable home builder in Australia/New Zealand, entered into a deed granting the AVID consortium exclusive confirmatory due diligence.
  • The AVID consortium, comprising Proprium Capital Partners and AVID Property Group, pitched an NBIO (by way of a Scheme) of A$0.67/share. Singapore’s SC Global (54.5% shareholder) was supportive.
  • In what appeared to be clean deal, Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP) then acquired a 5.39% stake on the 23rd December. Now they’ve made their own NBIO at A$0.70/share. 

US$2m contract extension underlines Pointerra3D benefit

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has published a flash comment on 3D spatial data solutions group Pointerra (ASX:3DP) following the announcement that that it has been awarded a US$2.0m (A$3.2m) contract extension by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to the existing programme modelling a range of electric grid resilience investment scenarios by electric utilities.
  • We view the contract extension, which brings total spend to date by the DOE to US$3.63m, as important validation of Pointerra3D’s benefit to the US electric utility sector.
  • The company says it expects the programme to be completed by 31 December 2025.

[SGX Iron Ore Weekly 2025/02] Bearish Sentiments Softening as Vols Trend Lower

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) rose last week, closing $0.4/ton higher by 10/Jan (Fri).
  • Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Feb contract trades 24.6% below its last 5-year average ($128.93/ton). 
  • IO prices gained 3% in the 10 trading days leading to CNY. IO prices rises 4.4% over the next 5 days before shedding 5% over the following five.

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Jan 14
0

Daily Brief Australia: Insignia Financial and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Calls CC Capital’s $4.30/Share NBIO

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Calls CC Capital’s $4.30/Share NBIO

By David Blennerhassett

  • After wealth manager Insignia Financial (IFL AU) announced – and subsequently rejected  Bain’s A$4.00/share Offer, CC Capital waded in on the 6th January with its own A$4.30/share NBIO.
  • IFL have yet to reach an opinion on CC Capital bid. And to make things interesting, Bain has  sweetened its Offer to $4.30/share, matching CC Capital’s terms.
  • What now? Either, IFL opens the data room to both parties. Or rejects both. I think they should engage.

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Jan 13
0

Daily Brief Australia: Imugene Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Imugene (IMU AU): Pipeline Progresses; Capital Injection to Extend Cash Runway to Late 2025

Imugene (IMU AU): Pipeline Progresses; Capital Injection to Extend Cash Runway to Late 2025

By Tina Banerjee

  • Imugene Ltd (IMU AU) announced dosing of the first Australian patient in the Phase 1b clinical trial of its allogeneic CAR T-cell therapy azer-cel in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.
  • Azer-Cel is one of the few allogeneic CAR T-cell therapies currently being evaluated in Australia. Azer-cel has potential revenue opportunity of $2.5B per annum.
  • Imugene intends to raise A$46M through convertible bonds and warrants. Cost savings initiatives provide cash runway into late 2025. Early-stage pipeline and fund raising requirement make Imugene a risky bet.

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Jan 10
0

Daily Brief Australia: Mesoblast Ltd, Amaero International Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Mesoblast (MSB AU): What Lies Ahead After FDA Approval
  • Amaero International Ltd – US government loan of IS$23.5m a significant milestone

Mesoblast (MSB AU): What Lies Ahead After FDA Approval

By Tina Banerjee

  • Mesoblast Ltd (MSB AU) got FDA approval for Ryoncil for steroid-refractory acute graft versus host disease (SR-aGvHD) in pediatric patients 2 months of age and older.
  • Following approval in pediatric patients, Mesoblast intends to commence a Phase 3 trial of Ryoncil in adults and adolescents, which has larger market size.
  • FDA approval enhances conviction on the commercial prospect of the other late-stage product candidates of the company, including Revascor for advanced chronic heart failure and rexlemestrocel-L for inflammatory pain indications.

Amaero International Ltd – US government loan of IS$23.5m a significant milestone

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS Research Group has published an update on advanced materials manufacturing group Amaero International (ASX:3DA) following the company’s announcement yesterday that it has secured final approval for a US$23.5m (A$37.8m) loan from the Export-Import Bank of the United States, the US federal government’s export credit agency, under the Make More in America (MMIA) initiative.
  • The loan will be drawn against the estimated US$28.5m in capital equipment purchases the company has announced for its Tennessee facility.
  • We view this as an important milestone for Amaero as it delivers non-dilutive, US-government funded support to the company on favourable terms.

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Jan 09
0

Daily Brief Australia: Arcadium Lithium and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Home Straight After CFIUS Nod

Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Home Straight After CFIUS Nod

By David Blennerhassett

  • Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)‘s spread to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)‘s terms steadily increased subsequent to the US elections, ostensibly over Trump (Musk?) bluster, blowing out to 21% before Xmas.
  • Overnight, the transaction received the go ahead from CFIUS. Shares popped ~8.2% on the news. The transaction remains subject to investment screening approvals in Australia, Canada and Italy. 
  • Unlike Greenland and the Panama Canal, the takeover of Arcadium should complete “before mid-2025”; possibly this quarter.

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Jan 08
0

Daily Brief Australia: Sigma Healthcare, Iron Ore and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Index Inclusions & Upweights Increase Passive Buying to A$2.7bn
  • IO Weekly Technicals Review [2025/01]: IO Poised for Recovery
  • Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Deep Value, >35% of Mkt Cap in Cash, 2.5x PE/0.3 EV-EBITDA on Ramp Up

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Index Inclusions & Upweights Increase Passive Buying to A$2.7bn

By Brian Freitas

  • SigmaHealthcare and ChemistWarehouse shareholders meet on 29 January. If the merger resolutions are approved, Second Court Hearing is on 3 February and the merger will be effective on 4 February.
  • Upward migration in one large global index could take place on 13 February while upweights and upward migrations in the S&P/ASX indices should be at the close on 21 March.
  • Upward migration in the other global index could take place in March or June. Total passive buying estimate is A$2.76bn. This will be offset by positioning and CWG shareholders selling.

IO Weekly Technicals Review [2025/01]: IO Poised for Recovery

By Suhas Reddy

  • SGX IO Futures closed USD 0.35/ton lower for the week ending on 03/Jan. It traded in a range of USD 4.35/ton, which was smaller than the prior week.
  • For the week ending 03/Jan, China’s port iron ore stockpiles rose 0.2% WoW to 145.22 million tons, while daily imported ore pick-up volume fell 47k tons to 3.08 million tons.
  • FIIs hold a net long position of 130.6k lots across all futures and options expiries. Managed Money and Physical market participants are net short by 19.6k and 82.1k lots, respectively.

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Deep Value, >35% of Mkt Cap in Cash, 2.5x PE/0.3 EV-EBITDA on Ramp Up

By Sameer Taneja

  • Fenix Resources (FEX AU) will increase production from 1.4 to 4.1 million tons annually in early CY25, placing it at 2.5x PE/0.3x EV-EBITDA FY26e (~100 USD/ton iron ore px assumption). 
  • On our estimates, if the company pays no dividend and capex is 60 mn AUD in both FY25 and FY26, net cash>market capitalization. (Conclusion: Board Pays Dividend)
  • We will look for the next quarterly production update for more color this month. Read our last update Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Positive Developments At Iron Ridge And Other Catalysts 

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Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Australia: Sigma Healthcare, Insignia Financial and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Could Be More with Sigma/CWG Merger
  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital’s Non-Binding Offer Could Spark a Bidding War

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Could Be More with Sigma/CWG Merger

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period, there could be 36 adds/deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices in March.
  • Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 and S&P/ASX 300.
  • Completion of the merger with Chemist Warehouse in February will set off huge passive buying in Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) over the February to June period.

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital’s Non-Binding Offer Could Spark a Bidding War

By Arun George

  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU) disclosed a non-binding privatisation offer from CC Capital at A$4.30, a 7.5% premium to the rejected Bain non-binding proposal of A$4.00.
  • While the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is light compared to peer and precedent transaction multiples. 
  • The presence of several substantial shareholders necessitates an attractive takeover premium. To facilitate better terms, the board should provide due diligence access. 

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Jan 06
0

Daily Brief Australia: Insignia Financial, Rio Tinto Ltd, Iron Ore and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital Wades In With A $4.30/Share NBIO
  • Selected European HoldCos and DLC: 2024 Report
  • Iron Ore Tracker (6-Jan-2025): What Does the New Year Hold in Store For Iron Ore

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital Wades In With A $4.30/Share NBIO

By David Blennerhassett

  • Last month, wealth manager Insignia Financial (IFL AU)  announced – and subsequently rejected – a A$4.00/share non-binding and indicative proposal from PE outfit Bain Capital.
  • The question was whether Bain returned to the well, in a space where Regal (RPL AU) recently binned its Platinum (PTM AU) tie-in; and Perpetual (PPT AU)‘s carve-out has hit a snag. 
  • Roughly two weeks after that Bain rejection, US-based asset investment manager CC Capital Partners has now tabled a A$4.30/share, in cash, non-binding Offer. That’s probably enough for Insignia to engage. 

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: 2024 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly tightened during 2024. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 11.8% (vs. 50.8% as of Y/E 2023); GBL, 40.9% (vs. 37.4%); Heineken Holding, 15.8% (vs. 16.7%);
  • Industrivärden C, 5.5% (vs. 5.5%); Investor B, 4.5% (vs. 12.8%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 32.2% (vs. 36.6%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 23% (vs. 24.2%).
  • What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).

Iron Ore Tracker (6-Jan-2025): What Does the New Year Hold in Store For Iron Ore

By Sameer Taneja

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Jan 05
0

Daily Brief Australia: Sigma Healthcare and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: Several Changes Likely; Major Inflows for Sigma Healthcare

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: Several Changes Likely; Major Inflows for Sigma Healthcare

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
  • We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200. Separately we see 10 ADDs and 8 DELs for ASX 300.
  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) is likely to experience major index inflows in March 2025 if the merger completes as planned.

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