Australia

• On 29 August, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) reported its FY25 results with underlying EBITDA of A$47 million, which is at the lower end of its guidance range. 
• At first glance, FY25 results are positive for Mayne as they suggest that the weak 3Q was an aberration and its performance is on an upward trajectory. 
• However, my analysis suggests that the results provide Cosette with several angles to pursue to bolster its case of a MAC breach. This remains a high-risk/high-reward set-up. 

• Apiam Animal Health received a takeover offer at A$0.88/share with an 11% spread, supported by founder Dr. Chris Richards.
• Plymouth Industrial REIT has a $24.10/share bid from Sixth Street Capital, with a 14-15% spread and board review ongoing.
• DallasNews has two takeover offers: $15/share from Hearst and $18.5/share from Alden, requiring two-thirds shareholder approval.

• Last week, rare-earth play Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) squared away a fully underwritten A$750mn placement (56.6mn shares, 6.1% of shares outstanding) at A$13.25/share, a 10% discount to last close. 
• Gina Rinehart, Lynas’ second largest shareholders with ~8.2%, took up her compliment. 
• Placement proceeds will be applied to streamlining ops, expanding its stockpiles/capacity, and investing downstream into magnet makers.

• Apiam Animal Health received a takeover offer from Adamantem Capital at A$0.88/share, with a current spread of 11%.
• YORK announced a merger with CRO token issuance, with each YORK share representing approximately 47 CRO tokens.
• Pacific Current Group’s FY25 results show a 28% discount to NAV, with potential capital allocation concerns.

• Apiam Animal Health received a takeover offer from Adamantem Capital at A$0.88/share, representing a 60% premium.
• Adamantem has 30 days of exclusivity for due diligence, with support from AHX’s largest shareholder and founder.
• AHX’s enterprise value is A$220m, aligning with Adamantem’s typical transaction size and strategic acquisition interests.

• Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU) announced stellar financial performance for 1H25, with doubling of net profit on high-teens revenue growth. Royalty income from Daybue grew 16% YoY to A$28.3M.
• The number of unique patients receiving a Daybue shipment continued to grow and in 2Q25 reached a record high of 987, up from 954 in 1Q25 and 920 in 4Q24.
• Assuming partner’s guidance is met and an exchange rate of 0.65, Neuren anticipates earning U.S. royalties of A$62–67M, up 15% YoY at mid-point in 2025.

• Fenix Resources (FEX AU) has secured an exclusive 30-year mining right to the Weld Range Project, which has 290 million tons of resource and will significantly extend Fenix’s mine life.
• Initial plans are to increase production from the Weld Range to 6 million tons, taking Fenix Resources (FEX AU) to a 10-12 million ton production profile. 
• Fenix Resources (FEX AU) has already nearly tripled its production from 1.5 million tonnes to 4.4 million tonnes and trades at a 1.7x price-to-OCF (at a $100/tonne iron ore price). 

• Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
• The company has reported a 50% increase in FY25 adjusted NPAT to $1.5m, almost 30% ahead of our forecast for the year.
• Adjusted EBITDA for the year was $4.7m, up 21% on the previous corresponding period (pcp) on the previously reported 12% increase in revenue to $32.1m.

• The AFR reports that Caterpillar Inc (CAT US) and four other bidders are considering a privatisation bid for RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU) at around A$5.00 per share.
• In response to the article, RPM entered a trading halt the same day regarding “an indicative proposal from a third party regarding a potential acquisition.”  
• RPM’s shareholder structure facilitates an offer. The rumoured offer is reasonable but is far from a knockout bid, suggesting the potential of a bidding war.  

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently four pair trade opportunities across two markets and three sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Airtasker Limited (ASX:ART) is an online marketplace for local services, connecting people and businesses who need work done with people who want to work.
• ART has reported its FY25 result, which was largely flagged in the recent Q4 FY25 cash flow update.
• Further disclosure reveals a monetisation rate of 21.6% for FY25, up from 20% in FY24 and above our forecast.

• Finola Burke from RaaS Research Group interviews CleanSpace Holdings’ CEO Gabrielle O’Carroll and CFO Bree Greeff.

• CleanSpace Holdings Ltd (ASX:CSX) is a designer and manufacturer of respiratory protection equipment and consumables for powered air purifying respirators (PAPRs).
• CSX has released its FY25 results delivering an impressive set of numbers including revenue growth of 26%, a 250bps increase in gross margin to 74.8%, flat costs on the pcp despite some one-offs, a H2 FY25 EBITDA profit and positive operating cash flow.
• Inventories relative to sales declined 700bps to 11%, helping to boost cash reserves to $10.5m.

• I tally 44 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Dongfeng (489 HK), Austindo Nusantara Jaya (ANJT IJ), Shengjing Bank (2066 HK), and HD Heavy (329180 KS)/HD Mipo (010620 KS). .
• Key updates/news took place on Santos Ltd (STO AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Carenet Inc (2150 JP), and Ashimori Industry (3526 JP).

• Iron ore miners lift output guidance, signalling confidence despite China’s property slump and slowing steel demand.
• India emerges as a critical growth driver yet cannot offset China’s structural steel demand weakness.
• Rising supply from Simandou and peers heightens downside risk, keeping the iron ore outlook cautiously bearish.

• Chinese miner MMG Ltd. saw a dramatic surge in output at its Las Bambas copper mine in Peru in the first half of this year, helped by its efforts to improve its rocky relationship with locals.
• In the six months through June, the mine produced about 210,000 tons of copper, up 67% year-on-year, with revenue from the project jumping 60% to $2 billion, according to the company’s latest earnings report.
• Las Bambas accounted for nearly three-fourths of MMG’s total first-half revenue, which rose 47% to $2.8 billion.

• RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU), a mining software technology provider, has entered into a trading halt ahead of a rumoured tilt from Caterpillar Inc (CAT US).
• No price has been made public; although local media are reporting an Offer Price of $5/share, a 32.6% premium to undisturbed. 
• Shares will be suspended until the 2nd September. Earlier this year, RPMGlobal transitioned to  a pure-play software company after offloading its advisory division.

• Context: The Macquarie Group (MQG AU) over National Australia Bank (NAB AU) price-ratio has deviated two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: The pair is trading just at the border of the 2 standard deviation threshold which triggers the trade open signal. Monitor to find a good entry point.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) is looking to raise up to US$488m in a primary placement.
• The deal is a relatively small one, representing 9.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 5.5% of total shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Critica Limited (ASX:CRI), formerly Venture Minerals Limited (ASX:VMS), is a junior resource company focusing on the exploration and development of the Jupiter rare earths project located in Western Australia (WA).
• Jupiter hosts a globally significant clay-hosted rare earths deposit which is currently progressing through metallurgical testing with promising initial results in beneficiating the ore, with future test work to focus on leaching of the ore to produce a marketable rare earth intermediate product.
• With cash of ~$4.15m as of 30 June 2025, CRI appears to have funding to continue to progress exploration activities across the company’s portfolio of projects.

• GTN Limited (ASX:GTN) provides traffic information reports and cash compensation to radio and television stations, and in return gets a guaranteed number of commercial advertising spots adjacent to traffic, news and information reports.
• GTN has reported FY25 adjusted EPS of $0.036 (adj. NPATA $6.9m), down 36% and already guided to in a trading update late July.
• Additional disclosure reveals generally stable spot rates but declines in sell out (utilisation) rates for most regions in H2 FY25.

• Horizon Minerals Limited (ASX:HRZ) is an emerging junior gold producer with 1.8moz of gold resources located around the Kalgoorlie and Coolgardie regions of Western Australia.
• HRZ released an update covering progress on the workstreams supporting the pre-feasibility study (PFS) on the restart of the Black Swan plant.
• The preliminary work is supportive of the plant being able to run at the targeted nameplate of 1.5mtpa based on the characteristics of the gold ore that will be processed through the plant.

• Prospech Limited (ASX:PRS) is a junior explorer focused on the exploration and development of rare earths and copper-gold projects in Finland and Slovakia.
• The company’s flagship Korsnäs project is the most advanced with PRS growing the scale of the resource over the last year in addition to demonstrating promising, but early, minerology and metallurgical test work outcomes.
• With cash of ~$0.55m as of 30 June 2025, PRS appears to have funding to progress activities across the company’s portfolio of projects.

• Red Metal Limited (ASX:RDM) is a junior explorer with a suite of projects covering rare earths, copper and gold all of which are located within Australia.
• The company’s current flagship project is Sybella, which is a granite-hosted rare earths deposit located south-west of Mt Isa, Queensland.
• The company’s other projects are focused on copper and gold with several moving toward drilling over H2 2025.

• Betr Entertainment (BBT AU) has bumped scrip terms to 4.375 betr shares per PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) share, equivalent to A$1.31/share, based on betr’s last traded price. 
• True to form with betr, there’s a typo in its latest announcement stating a 4.735 ratio. betr just issued a Bidder’s Statement with the correct info.
• Apologies: in my last note I mentioned Mixi Inc (2121 JP) had bumped to A$1.30/share. However, that was predicated on Mixi securing 90%, which won’t happen if betr doesn’t tender.

DUG Technology’s FY25 results confirmed that order intake stepped up in H225, with intake of $45.7m 131% higher half-on-half, resulting in a record order book of $52m at the end of the year. While revenue came in marginally below our forecasts, EBITDA was stronger, with the margin down only 0.7pp y-o-y despite investment in international expansion during FY25. We have revised our forecasts to reflect the better-than-expected order intake, lifting revenue by 1.2% in FY26 and FY27 and EBITDA by 11.9% and 10.8% respectively.

• FY2025 results marked Paladin’s return to production with solid revenues but a net loss driven by ramp‑up costs and one‑offs.
• Forecasts were revised lower to reflect a slower ramp and stickier costs, though profitability is expected from FY2026.
• Valuation looks stretched on earnings multiples but increasingly attractive on an EV/EBITDA basis as uranium prices rise.

• Pointerra Ltd (ASX:3DP) provides a powerful cloud-based solution (Pointerra3D) for managing, visualising, analysing, using and sharing massive 3D point clouds and geo-spatial datasets.
• Pointerra3D is a proprietary digital twin Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) platform which delivers predictive digital insights and definitive answers to complex physical asset management questions.
• Pointerra has reported FY25 revenue of $11.0m, up 45% on the previous corresponding period (pcp) and largely in-line with our forecast.

• RaaS Research Group interviewed Pointerra CEO Ian Olson post the company’s results.
• This is a full transcript.

• Provaris Energy Ltd (PV1.ASX) represents an unique investment opportunity as a leveraged play on the growing shift to alternative energy and carbon reduction, particularly in Europe, but applicable on a global basis.
• Having announced a successful $1m raising through a placement (ASX:PV1 – Funding to Accelerate H2 and CO2 Commercialisation), the company is well placed to progress both of its compressed hydrogen and liquid CO2 (LCO2) projects through 2025.
• The next 6-12 months should see two hydrogen supply, offtake and shipping agreements become unconditional, completion of the construction, testing and certification of its proprietary hydrogen ‘storage tank’ design and its CO2 FEED evaluation in partnership with Yinson.

• BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has disclosed revised terms but has failed to check its work. The announcement has two revised scrip ratios – 4.735 (in bold) and 4.375. 
• To match the stated PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) offer value, the scrip ratio should be 4.375. The revised terms suggest that Betr is struggling to secure acceptances. 
• The key issue remains that Betr will be unable to exercise compulsory acquisition rights to realise its stated synergies, a key pitch for shareholders to favour its all-scrip offer.

• Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE September 2025 rebalance.
• GLN is expected to enter the Top 40 index, with APN falling out.
• No changes are expected for the FINDI, FINI, INDI or RESI indices.

• Michael Gable of Fairmont Equities notes shares in New Hope Corp are finding technical support from a series of higher lows on the price chart.

• CSL Ltd (CSL AU) announced major strategic initiatives targeting annual pre-tax cost savings of >$500M by end of FY28. The initiatives will result in 15% reduction in CSL’s employee base.
• CSL intends to demerge CSL Seqirus as a substantial ASX-listed entity by FY26. The remaining CSL group will continue to have leading market positions in multiple rare and serious diseases.
• CSL reported on-target financial performance for FY25. The company has guided for FY26 revenue growth of 4–5% and NPATA (excluding non-recurring restructuring cost) of $3.45B–3.55B, up 7–10%.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: Aux Electric Co Ltd (0917839D HK) is seeking to raise US$600 million, Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is seeking to raise US$2.0 billion.
• Event-Driven developments: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP). 

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlight: Currently eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Context: The Scentre Group (SCG AU) vs. Stockland (SGP AU) price-ratio has deviated more than three standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights:Stockland (SGP AU) rallied 7.0% on 20 August after reporting results, creating a gap between the two stocks. Scentre Group (SCG AU) is set to report on 26 August,
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Context: The Woodside (WDS AU) vs. Yancoal (YAL AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: With Yancoal experiencing a sharp price drop after reporting earnings last week, the historically well-aligned price ratio has spiked, generating a trading signal.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• This is a follow-up on our insight from 2 weeks ago, Iron Ore: Pullback From 102 USD/Ton to 95 USD/Ton, where we estimated a pullback on the iron ore price. 
• With mill margins retreating into negative territory and TSF numbers (although healthy) coming far below street expectations, the stage is set for iron ore to retreat to 95 USD/ton. 
• Despite iron ore prices retreating to the 95 USD/ton level, we like Fenix Resources (FEX AU)(Read: Fenix Resources Tripling of Production Achieved, 1.2x Price/OCF ).

• Avecho Biotechnology Limited (ASX:AVE) is an Australian biotech company focused on enhancing drug absorption through its proprietary TPM (Tocopheryl Phosphate Mixture).
• AVE is currently focusing its efforts on a CBD (cannabidiol) soft-gel capsule for treating insomnia.
• AVE is currently undergoing a pivotal Phase III clinical trial of the drug with the potential to be the first over-the-counter (OTC) CBD sleep aid approved by Australia’s Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), meaning the drug could be purchased directly and easily at a pharmacy without any prescription required from a doctor.

• I tally 43 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU) and Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU).
• Key updates/news took place on Santos Ltd (STO AU), Abacus Storage King (ASK AU), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), and Smart Share Global (EM US).

• A new selection methodology will be used for the ASX index family starting from the September 2025 index review. We first wrote about this a couple of months ago (link).
• In this insight, we present our final expectations for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the September 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect one change for ASX 50, three changes for ASX 100, and six changes for ASX 200. Separately, we see 14 ADDs and 11 DELs for ASX 300.