Equity Bottom-Up

• The prices of the construction materials stocks collapsed recently, with China National Building Material (3323 HK) holding firm, thanks to the buyback proposal.
• A sustained drop in cement prices and continued weakness in fixed asset investment revealed the challenging demand environment, making CNBM’s offer attractive.
• The buyback price equals 25.7x and 10.8x PERs for FY24F and FY25F, representing a hefty premium over peers. We continue to believe this is a good exit opportunity. 

• We preview Plover Bay Technologies’ (1523 HK) FY24 earnings and expect 25% revenue growth and 38% profit growth, aligning with the profit alert’s trends.
• The company will declare its results on February 27th and hold a conference call to clarify its growth prospects for FY25 (vs our assumption of 20% avg-10 Yr growth)
• This is a name worth exploring, trading at 16x/14x FY24e/25e, net cash, with >50% ROEs and 5%/6% dividend yields for FY24e/25e. 

• NEV retail deliveries grew by 41% in 2024, higher than 36% in 2023.
• The US Department of Defense designated Tencent as a Chinese Military Company.
• Smart Share Global plans to go private, as the company has no exclusive advantage.

• Imugene Ltd (IMU AU) announced dosing of the first Australian patient in the Phase 1b clinical trial of its allogeneic CAR T-cell therapy azer-cel in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.
• Azer-Cel is one of the few allogeneic CAR T-cell therapies currently being evaluated in Australia. Azer-cel has potential revenue opportunity of $2.5B per annum.
• Imugene intends to raise A$46M through convertible bonds and warrants. Cost savings initiatives provide cash runway into late 2025. Early-stage pipeline and fund raising requirement make Imugene a risky bet.

• MACOM’s third fiscal quarter 2024 financial results exhibit both strengths and areas of concern, offering a mixed bag for potential investors.
• The company reported a revenue of $190.5 million with an adjusted EPS of $0.66 per diluted share, marking a positive trend in turnover buoyed by sequential growth in the Data Center and Telecom segments.
• This financial performance was complemented by an impressive generation of over $40 million in free cash flow and an ending cash position of $521 million in cash and short-term investments.

• Endava PLC reported its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, reflecting a period of transition and adaptation to evolving digital transformation trends.
• The company experienced a revenue increase of 3.5% to £195.1 million compared to the same period last year, representing a constant currency growth of 5.2%.
• This growth beat their guidance, and the company emphasized a notable shift in market demand towards AI and core modernization-driven growth, despite a slowdown in traditional digital business.

• Meta Platforms is making headlines once again with its latest overhaul of content moderation policies, signaling a significant shift in how the social media giant manages user interactions and information dissemination.
• In a bold move, Meta announced the elimination of its third-party fact-checking program, aiming to “restore free expression” by adopting a crowdsourced “Community Notes” model akin to Elon Musk’s X platform.
• CEO Mark Zuckerberg emphasized that the previous system was “too politically biased” and eroded trust, particularly in the United States.

• Considering of current financial outcome of Intel Corp (INTC US), we cannot but favor Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US).
• Currently, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) has a more favorable competitive landscape compared to Intel Corp (INTC US).
• The competition in PC CPU emphasizes not only performance but also heat dissipation and other techniques related to supply management.    

• The Walt Disney Company is making significant strides in 2025, positioning itself for substantial growth and market influence through strategic mergers and innovative streaming initiatives.
• Recently, Disney announced a landmark merger between its Hulu + Live TV service and FuboTV, creating the second-largest digital pay-TV provider in North America.
• This move not only consolidates Disney’s presence in the live TV streaming market but also leverages FuboTV’s sports-centric audience to enhance Disney’s already robust content offerings.

• FuelCell Energy recently released its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year-end 2024, highlighting a mix of robust revenue growth and significant restructuring initiatives aimed at positioning the company for future profitability.
• Revenue for the fourth quarter rose dramatically by 120% year-over-year, reaching $49.3 million, primarily driven by module sales to Gyeonggi Green Energy (GGE) in South Korea.
• Despite this quarterly increase, the full fiscal year 2024 revenue showed a decline compared to the previous year.

• Wolfspeed Inc. has reported its results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, indicating a period of strategic transitions and adjustments amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment.
• The company is emphasizing the transition to a 200-millimeter silicon carbide (SiC) platform, which is seen as critical to its operational efficiency and market leadership.
• Wolfspeed aims to optimize its manufacturing processes to lower costs and accelerate profitability—key components of its broader strategy to tap into the growing demand for SiC in electric vehicles (EVs) and other industrial applications.

• Marriott Vacations Worldwide has delivered mixed results in its third quarter 2024 performance, characterized by strategic initiatives aimed at driving growth and efficiency, amidst ongoing economic challenges.
• The company reported increased contract sales by 5% year-over-year, with a significant portion driven by first-time buyers, and resort occupancy nearing 90%.
• This suggests a strong demand for vacation ownership despite economic pressures faced by consumers.

• Nova Technology Corp is a leading company in Taiwan in integrating water, gas, and chemical systems for high-tech industrial facilities. 
• Nova Technology provides high dividend payout and excellent dividend yield. From 2019 to 2023, the company’s dividend payout and dividend yield averaged 71.7% and 7.2%, respectively.
• Nova Technology generates high levels of ROE. Its ROE improved from 23% in 2021 to 28.7% in 2022 and 30.3% in 2023.

• Diodes Incorporated has reported its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2024.
• The company’s revenue exceeded expectations, reaching $350.1 million, a sequential increase of 9.5% from the second quarter but a decline from $404.6 million in the previous year.
• This growth was notably supported by improved demand in Asia, particularly the automotive sector, which rose by 18% and accounted for 19% of product revenue.

• Project Digits is a supercomputer on everybody’s desk for $3000. Seems crazy but feels like 1977 Ken Olson moment “no reason anyone would want a computer in their home”
• Lack of data center revenue growth predictions likely spooked investors and triggered a ~10% pullback. Just buy the dip, you know you want to…
• Micron and MediaTek both jumped on news of their further involvement in NVIDIA’s AI acceleration hardware supply chain. 

• Mainland investors continue their record southbound purchases during 2024 and into 2025. 
• GDS Holdings (9698 HK) , GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US) had a break out from its triangle formation in its continuation pattern.  The company may list its China REIT assets.
• Tencent (700 HK) had a symmetrical pattern breakdown after the announcement that the US pentagon had placed the company on its blacklist.  The company began a large share buyback.

• Veren has reported its third quarter results for 2024, shedding light on both its operational successes and the challenges it faces.
• The company generated excess cash flow of $114 million, with $85 million returned to shareholders.
• A strategic infrastructure transaction was completed for $400 million, and total net debt is expected to be reduced by $1.3 billion by the end of 2024.

• On the All Thoughts podcast, Tracy Alloway and Joe discuss Tracy’s new solar panel and energy challenges during a snowstorm.
• Duke Energy’s Senior VP of Pricing and Customer Solutions discusses the complexities of energy pricing, renewable energy, and the future of the grid.

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• HCA Healthcare recently held its third-quarter earnings call, and the insights provided offer a complex view of the company’s current position and future outlook.
• The financial results reflected strong performance despite notable challenges, particularly from recent hurricanes.
• Positively, HCA Healthcare reported substantial year-over-year growth in several key financial metrics.

• Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) reported single-digit revenue growth and net profit growth in low-teens during 9MFY25, on the back of 13% YoY growth in Salonpas focused OTC segment.
• Rx business revenue grew 4% YoY as new products such as Zicthoru, Apohide, Combipatch, Vivelle-Dot etc clocked healthy numbers.
• Hisamitsu raised its FY25 guidance for revenue by 1% to ¥154B, operating profit by 24% to ¥18B, and net profit by 24% to ¥20.5B.

• Gordon Tang increases buyout offer for Suntec REIT in response to investor dissatisfaction with original bid.
• Texas teachers ramp up real estate investments, committing 61% more funds totaling $1.6 billion by 2024.
• The Cheng family of Hong Kong faces challenges as an Australian casino operator experiences a cash shortage, impacting their holdings.

• Perfect Corp. provides an AI and machine learning based B2B SaaS platform for virtual try on and marketing of beauty and fashion products as well as six mobile apps sold B2C for makeup suggestions, try-on, tutorials, photo and video editing and most recently, Gen AI creation and editing.
• It is expanding its offering to new verticals and has strong IP as well as the largest database for AI training in the industry.
• It has a dominant market share and serves almost all the major beauty brands worldwide.

Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust (USA) invests in exceptional US businesses with the potential to grow substantially faster than the market and deliver above-market returns. Such businesses tend to operate at the cutting edge of technology-led change and USA has exposure to companies focused on AI, space travel and online services. This note reiterates USA’s unique investment proposition and scrutinises a recent proposal from Saba, a US hedge fund manager, aimed at ousting USA’s board and replacing its investment managers. Saba currently owns less than 28% of USA shares in issue. The trust’s board has urged shareholders to reject Saba’s hostile takeover at the general meeting scheduled for 3 February 2025 and we agree with this recommendation, for reasons discussed below.

• Intel’s Panther Lake chip set to drive growth in AI PC market and spark resurgence in semiconductor foundry industry by second half of 2025.
• Rapidus to provide 2nm chip samples to Broadcom, highlighting advancements in semiconductor technology and potential for increased performance.
• Taiwanese companies eye opportunities in expanding renewable energy market in the Philippines, showcasing interest in sustainable business practices. CES 2025 sees Nvidia unveiling robot collaborations while concerns emerge over South Korea’s absence. Honda and Sony face uncertainty as Afeela 1 debuts, while Tata Elxsi and Qualcomm team up to develop virtual models of Snapdragon Digital Chassis solutions. UK-Taiwan tech partnerships strengthen as British Representative to Taiwan concludes term, reflecting deepening alliance between the two countries.

• Mesoblast Ltd (MSB AU) got FDA approval for Ryoncil for steroid-refractory acute graft versus host disease (SR-aGvHD) in pediatric patients 2 months of age and older.
• Following approval in pediatric patients, Mesoblast intends to commence a Phase 3 trial of Ryoncil in adults and adolescents, which has larger market size.
• FDA approval enhances conviction on the commercial prospect of the other late-stage product candidates of the company, including Revascor for advanced chronic heart failure and rexlemestrocel-L for inflammatory pain indications.

• Fast Retailing reported significant gains in revenue and profitability for the first quarter of FY2025.
• Strong performances in North America & Europe (+31% YoY), and Asia (+17%), offset challenges in Greater China (-1%)
• Overall revenue and operating profit figures came in marginally stronger than our estimates

• Nicola Tangen interviews CEO and Chair of Accenture, Judy Sweet, discussing digital transformation and innovation.
• Accenture focuses on helping companies harness the power of technology and AI to be more efficient and grow.
• Sweet emphasizes the importance of leadership, storytelling, and communication skills in guiding companies through change and fostering a culture of continuous reinvention.

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• ARM licenses its intellectual property to companies that design chips, fitting into the broader semiconductor ecosystem
• ARM’s business model involves upfront license payments and royalties for chips shipped by licensees
• ARM’s CPU is a general-purpose chip, while GPUs are designed for specific tasks like graphics, illustrating the importance and interplay between the two architectures

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• Toll Brothers, a prominent luxury homebuilder, delivered a robust performance in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, demonstrating resilience and adaptability amidst external challenges.
• The company’s financial results were highlighted by a significant increase in home deliveries and sales revenues.
• It delivered 3,431 homes, marking a year-over-year increase of 25% in unit delivery and a 10% rise in revenue, totaling $3.3 billion.

• Chemed Corporation’s third-quarter 2024 earnings present a mixed performance across its two primary business segments: VITAS Healthcare and Roto-Rooter.
• The company reports strong performance from VITAS, while Roto-Rooter is facing challenges.
• VITAS Healthcare displayed robust growth in the quarter, primarily driven by increased admissions and the successful acquisition of Covenant Health.

• Confluent’s third quarter 2024 financial results reveal a blend of positives and negatives for investors.
• The company demonstrated strong subscription revenue growth, particularly in its cloud operations, but some broader business challenges warrant careful consideration.
• On the positive side, Confluent reported a significant year-over-year subscription revenue increase of 27%, totaling $240 million, with Confluent Cloud revenue growing even more impressively by 42% to $130 million.

• Aspen Aerogels, Inc. is a leading company in high-performance aerogel technology, specializing in thermal management solutions for industries like electric vehicles, energy infrastructure, and sustainable building insulation.
• Their PyroThin® insulation product is popular in the EV sector due to its ability to enhance battery safety and performance.
• Founded in 2001 and headquartered in Massachusetts, Aspen has seen significant revenue growth and market expansion, with a market cap of $1.6 billion in Q3 2024, positioning them for further growth in the energy-efficient sectors they serve.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• General Electric (GE) Aerospace showcased a robust performance in its Q3 2024 earnings, underscored by substantial growth in orders, revenue, and operating profit, while also facing challenges in specific segments.
• Positively, GE Aerospace reported a significant 28% increase in orders, driven by heightened demand.
• Revenues rose by 6%, which, coupled with a 14% uplift in operating profit and a 25% increase in adjusted EPS, highlighted strong operational performance.

• Targa Resources Corp. has demonstrated a robust performance during the third quarter of 2024, with record volumes and adjusted EBITDA, suggesting a significant growth trajectory.
• The company’s strategic positioning in volatile markets, a strong Permian Basin presence, and a focus on fee-based or fee floor contracts, primarily in the Gathering and Processing (G&P) segments, have mitigated exposure to commodity price downturns.
• Notably, Targa has invested in long-term growth by expanding its infrastructure and capacity through key projects, such as the construction of new processing plants and sour gas treating facilities in the Permian Delaware Basin, expected to be operational by the upcoming years.

• Late 2024 Entree Resources (ETG CN) announced it won its arbitration against Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU). The vote by the three judges was unanimously in favor of Entree. 
• Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) held its investor day in early December 2024 where almost its entire growth plan for 2025-2030 is predicated on Oyu Tolgoi’s (OT) performance.
• Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) is now backed into a corner to find a solution for OT’s minority shareholder Entree Resources. The most logical outcome? RIO buys ETG in 2025.

• Dream International, a Hong Kong-based company run by a Korean family, has seen significant growth in revenue and earnings per share over the past decade.
• Despite facing challenges such as theft of funds and holding a large cash pile, the company has shown strong performance with an 18% return on equity over the past 15 years.
• Trading at a low multiple of earnings and holding a significant cash reserve, Dream International presents an appealing investment opportunity for value investors due to its potential for continued growth and competitive advantages in the market.

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• Sony Group Corporation has exhibited a mix of strengths and challenges in its latest financial results, which provide insights into its current business landscape and future outlook.
• Positive aspects of Sony’s results are largely attributable to robust performance in key segments like Gaming & Network Services (G&NS) and Music.
• The company reported a 9% increase in consolidated sales, excluding the Financial Services segment, year-on-year, with operating income showing a significant increase of 57% for the quarter.

• United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.
• We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.  
• It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.

• Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) has forged ahead with its rebranding after ending its licensing agreement with ACES US, changing its store branding to AZKO from 1st January 2025.
• The new branding has already been rolled out to several stores but the company has given a 3-month window for all storefronts to be completed across Indonesia. 
• We view this rebranding exercise as an opportunity for the company to lift sales further through heavy promotions and a more aggressive store rollout. Valuations remain attractive relative to history.

• In 1H24, Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK) reported revenue growth of 35% YoY to RMB2,382 million, mainly driven by a 37% YoY growth in hospital business.
• Hygeia’s gross profit margin contracted 60bps YoY to 31.8%. Lower government grant led to 230bps operating margin squeeze to 21.6%.
• The share price of Hygeia Healthcare has gone down almost 56% in the last one year. Accelerated organic growth and strengthening of margins are crucial to boost valuation.

• EV price cuts in Europe impact used car market, while US industry faces tariffs
• Kyocera to sell $1.27 billion in non-core business due to declining profits
• Toyota and Nvidia collaborate at CES 2025 for AI alliance towards autonomous future

• Geely’s sales volume grew by 32% in 2024 and management set a growth target of 25% for 2025.
• BEV boomed in 2H24 and will be the protagonist in 2025.
• We believe the overseas market will also be promising for Geely.

• Lumen Technologies’ third-quarter 2024 performance outlines its strategic efforts and current challenges as it navigates a transformative phase to reposition the company within the digital networking and AI infrastructure sectors.
• The company reported a revenue decline, reflecting ongoing headwinds from legacy business sectors, even as it strives to pivot its offerings toward newer, more competitive markets.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with our desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety.
• Our top picks are Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), Taste Gourmet (8371 HK), Uchi Technologies (UCHI MK), and Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM).
• As we approach the new year, we roll into forward earnings, and most of our stocks are cheaper with rich yields. We summarize our list of stocks

• Intel is pinning much hope on the success of the AIPC, a venture in which they are tied at the hip with Microsoft, which calls it a CoPilot+ PC
• The AIPC/CoPilot+ PC concept is struggling to gain traction. They will sell in volume, but only because buyers will have limited alternatives available. Ultimately, we see AIPCs cannibalising non-AIPCs
• Intel’s performance was underwhelming to say the least, but at the same time, not in the least bit surprising. Earnings coming on January 23. 

• Dell’s switch to AMD processors for commercial PCs in CES 2025 poses a threat to Intel’s market dominance in the industry.
• MediaTek and Nvidia’s collaboration to develop advanced supercomputer chips at CES 2025 promises enhanced performance and capabilities.
• US DoD banning Tencent, CATL, and CXMT in response to escalating tech tensions, and Toyota’s inauguration pledge to Trump raising concerns.

• According to our NAV valuation analysis, it suggests NAV per share of 25,624 won for DN Automotive which is 35% higher than current price.
• We assumed DN Automotive’s estimated post IPO stake of DN Solutions (72.2% stake) would be worth about 4 trillion won. 
• We used a very large holdco discount rate of 70%. DN Automotive is not a pure holdco company but a quasi holding company.

• Latest TSMC Price Hike — Introducing the $18,000 Wafer; Supports The Case That Management Margin Guidance is Overly Conservative
• Mover Over Apple, Nvidia Could Become TSMC’s Largest Customer in 2025E
• SK Hynix(000660.KS): Insisting on HBM Technology and Continuing to Surpass Samsung in Net Earnings 

• For Fosun, every major capital operation is the result of careful consideration after a long time. If it is a deal that Mr. Guo fully supports, there’s basically no problem.
• For the privatization, the board of directors of Henlius has no special opposition. We think that this privatization would have no impact on the operation of Henlius in the future,
• As the phenomenon of undervaluation of Henlius is difficult to fundamentally change, the Cancellation Price is attractive for most investors. There’re risks if choosing Share Alternative. Cash Alternative is preferred. 

• Amer Sports, owned by ANTA Sports, is focusing on expanding in the Chinese market, particularly through the Arc’teryx brand
• New store openings in China are expected to drive revenue and EBIT growth for Amer Sports
• Arc’teryx faces stiff competition in the outdoor apparel market, with its technical attributes not standing out as much as expected, despite surpassing Canada Goose in revenue and having a strong presence in China

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• Ryobi is a leading Japanese manufacturer of die casts, predominantly serving the global auto industry, with an estimated top domestic share of about 20%.
• As the transition out of internal combustion engines (ICE) and into battery electric-powered vehicles (BEV) gathers pace, Ryobi is well placed to capitalize on the demand for lightweight aluminum auto parts, including chassis, e-axle, and battery cases, door frame hinges, and many more parts.
• Although meeting demand generated by this once-in-a -lifetime industrial transformation requires capital expenditures, the company is also focused on improving operating margins over the long term and enhancing shareholder returns, keen to raise its PBR to 1x.

• Daiseki Co.’s cumulative Q3 sales decreased 6.7% YoY to JPY50.0bn, exceeding the forecast of JPY49.6bn.
• DES’s sales declined 27.6% YoY, impacting consolidated operating profit, which decreased 6.8% YoY to JPY11.0bn.
• FY02/25 forecasts revised upward: sales JPY66.0bn, operating profit JPY14.6bn, with OPM increasing by 0.7pp YoY.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $20 price target and projections for Lands’ End as we look forward to 2025.
• We believe, after an impressive return to profitability in FY24, Lands’ End management is poised to continue to build on their winning business model drivers (improved product, marketing and customer reach, Outfitters, international and licensing) to drive further upside into FY25 and amply demonstrate the power of Lands’ End to leverage a quintessential and trusted American brand to drive compelling returns.
• As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $20 price target for LE.

• Mitsubishi Research Institute (MRI) provides consulting services, as well as research and analysis, for the financial sector, government agencies, and the private sector.
• Profitability is poised to expand through acquiring new clients, growing recurring business, and focusing on profitable projects by moving up the value chain towards upstream consulting within the current medium-term plan (FY9/24-FY9/26).
• MRI aims to achieve 12% ROE by FY9/26 with such initiatives (7.5% FY9/24). Having a strong balance sheet with a net cash position, MRI plans to increase capital allocation to M&A, driving non-organic growth. 

• On 6 January, LG Corp announced that it plans to purchase 250 billion won worth of LG Electronics and LG Chem from 6 January to 7 March 2025.
• The share buybacks would represent 1.5% and 0.7% of LG Chem and LG Electronics’ market cap, respectively.
• Our base case NAV valuation analysis of LG Corp suggests implied NAV of 14.7 trillion won or NAV per share of 93,430 won, which is 25% higher than current price.

• BYD’s deliveries grew by 51% YoY in December 2024 and 41% in the year 2024.
• The Brazil event will slow down overseas expansion, but overseas deliveries account for only 10% of total vehicles.
• We believe the stock has an upside of 39% and a price target of HK$356 for the next twelve months.

• There are few large US banks where quarterly net interest income is more than 1.6x higher now on average than in late FY19 and early FY20
• JPM demonstrates some of the best asset-liability management (ALM) of any major bank in the US
• Other risks and parts of the business appear to be very well managed too, including credit risk and operating costs

• Coway announced a significantly higher total shareholder return plan, nearly doubling total shareholder returns of consolidated net income from current 20% to about 40% in the next three years.
• Coway has low valuation multiples. It is currently trading at EV/EBITDA of 4.1x, P/E of 8.1x, and P/B of 1.4x based on 2025 consensus earnings estimates.
• We believe that the combination of improved shareholder returns and low valuation multiples are likely to lead to outperformance of Coway versus the market in the next 6-12 months. 

• AutoZone’s first quarter results for 2025 present a mixed bag of outcomes shaped by challenging economic conditions and strategic focus on growth initiatives, both domestically and internationally.
• The overall sales for the quarter grew by 2.1% year-over-year, reaching $4.3 billion, with a marginal improvement in overall same-store sales, up by 1.8%.
• Within the U.S., the company experienced subdued growth in domestic same-store sales at 0.3% and a 3.2% rise in commercial sales.

• Sarla Performance Fibers Limited is engaged in the manufacturing and export of high-performance polyester and nylon yarns.
• Increasing capacity utilisation towards higher value-added products, such as Nylon 6 & 66 and high-tenacity yarn, is expected to boost revenue and improve operating margin.
• A valuation re-rating is also possible if the return metrics (RoE, RoCE) improve as the utilisation level rise.

• Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP) enters into a license agreement with J&J for the global development, manufacturing, and commercialization of a STAT6 program, which is being developed by Kaken.
• Kaken will advance KP-723 to the completion of Phase I clinical trials, after which J&J will take over. Kaken will receive an upfront payment of $30M from J&J.
• The deal is a boost for future revenue flow but offers no near-term respite for revenue loss from NHI drug price revision and generic competition for top selling products.

• ASML CEO and delegation to visit TSMC, showcasing collaboration in semiconductor industry
• US adds 13 firms, majority Chinese, to entity list amid ongoing tensions
• Samsung Display to unveil 18.1-inch foldable OLED panel at CES 2025, showcasing advancements in display technology

• JSW Energy faces a significant regulatory setback with the rejection of its proposed tariff for a 500 MW/1000 MWh Battery Energy Storage System project by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission. 
• This decision highlights the vulnerability of renewable energy ventures to regulatory changes, potentially leading to project delays, tariff renegotiations, and broader market uncertainty, which could impact India’s renewable energy goals.
• The impact of this could be multiple ripple effects including project delays, financial loss, viability concerns of battery storage business.

• Nike Inc. is at a pivotal moment as new CEO Elliott Hill endeavors to reverse a persistent sales slump and restore the company’s dominance in the highly competitive sportswear market.
• Hill, who returned to Nike after a three-decade career with the company, has pledged to refocus on sports-centric innovation and strengthen the brand’s core offerings.
• However, his task is compounded by significant missteps from his predecessor, John Donahoe, and mounting competitive threats that threaten Nike’s market position.

• Nidec’s tender offer of Makino would strengthen its portfolio, combining advanced machining technologies with automation solutions to lead the global machine tool industry.
• The synergy between Nidec and Makino unlocks cost savings, streamlined operations, and innovative solutions for high-growth sectors like electric vehicles and aerospace.
• We estimate that the deal to acquire Makino would be between 8-13% EPS accretive for Nidec.

• After the peak of 4Q24, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)‘s  revenue will see a decline of about -5% QoQ in 1Q25.  
• TSMC is expected to use 2nm technology in 4Q25, and we believe Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) and Apple (AAPL US) could present products around 1Q26.
• TSMC could be set to announce its 2nm production plans, expansion into the US, Germany, and Japan, mature technology quotations, and the Capex budget for 2025. 

• All Pre-Conditions of Newjf’s Offer have been satisfied. Based on Offer Document, the latest date for posting of the Response Document is Jan.7, 2025. First Closing Date is Jan.21, 2025.
• Newjf will make every effort to complete the acquisition and regain the control of international business so as to protect shareholders’ interests.So, the logic behind the deal is very solid.
• Mengniu’s attitude could be positive. A higher management offer seems more out of reach because the management lacks sincerity. We advise investors not to walk away from Newjf’s Offer easily.

• Alibaba’s Freshippo remained profitable and double-digit growth in the past nine months.
• Brazil labor authorities are investigating BYD’s construction site for “slave-like condition”.
• Tencent Music will compensate MCSC (Music Copyright Society of China) for the unauthorized usage of music copy rights.

• Water Oasis (1161 HK) skimped on its final dividend and paid only 2 HK cents (compared to our expectation of ~5 HK cents), sending its share prices down 14% post results.
• Insider buying after the results helped steady the shares, but we see that buying after the declaration of dividends as sending a wrong signal to some minority shareholders.
• There is immense value, trading at 4.4x PE and 0.3x EV-EBITDA, with 485 mn HKD net cash (~90% of the market cap), but we need increased dividends to crystallize it.

• MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) has surged 34% since announcing strong 9M24 results, backed by robust revenue growth, in end November, 2024.
• With strong growth prospects, the stock could scale further in 2025, driven by rapid store expansion, blind box toys, ACG goods, and collaborations with top IPs like Harry Potter.
• MINISO’s evolution from a value retailer into a lifestyle brand with trademarked IP goods, innovative blind boxes, and creative retail formats enhances its competitive edge and drives growth.

• In early 2025, Tesla finds itself at a critical juncture as its global vehicle deliveries for 2024 dipped by 1% to 1.79 million units, marking the first annual decline in over a decade.
• Despite this setback, Tesla’s market capitalization surged by approximately 53%, positioning the company as a $1.2 trillion giant surpassing the combined value of the next 20 largest automakers.
• This paradox underscores a shift in Tesla’s valuation drivers—from traditional car sales to ambitious ventures in robotics, artificial intelligence, and the promising but uncertain robotaxi business.

• In a dramatic turn of events, Hindenburg Research has publicly disclosed a short position against Carvana, intensifying the scrutiny on the online used-car retailer.
• The latest report from Hindenburg, titled “Carvana: A Father-Son Accounting Grift for the Ages,” accuses the company of financial manipulation and unsustainable growth driven by a precarious subprime loan portfolio.
• This revelation has sent ripples through the stock market, causing Carvana’s shares to dip by 1.9% in New York, marking a significant shift after a remarkable 284% surge in the previous year.

• Apple’s spectacular 2024 has positioned it as a behemoth in the technology sector, with its stock climbing 30% compared to the S&P 500’s 23% gain.
• It closed the year at $250 per share, giving the company a valuation exceeding $3.8 trillion, just shy of the $4 trillion milestone—a feat no company has achieved.
• This growth was driven by new product launches, including the revolutionary Apple Vision Pro, advancements in AI with Apple Intelligence, and record-breaking revenue of $94.9 billion for the September quarter.

• OTC Markets Group, Inc has a strong moat and capital light business model with high returns on equity and minimal capital expenditure
• The company has a long growth runway with mid-high single digit revenue growth forecasted over the next five years and low-40% EBITDA margins
• CEO owns 27% of the company, leading to aligned interests, and operates as marketplaces rather than exchanges, resulting in favorable regulatory implications and lower capital requirements.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• The third batch of VBP results of the National TCM Patent Medicines were released. Some products experienced over 90% price reduction. The price decline of exclusive varieties was moderate.
• The VBP results of cochlear implants and peripheral vascular stents were released. Both foreign and domestic companies participated in the VBP actively, hoping to increase market share in China. 
• The key is to see whether 2024 full-year performance can meet expectations, which is the bottom line for WuXi Bio. Without a definitive long-term logic, short-term trading is recommended.

• Tracking Asian air cargo trends can uncover investment opportunities & offer read-throughs
• In November 2024, no clear signs of market tightness in data from Taiwanese, Chinese carriers
• A quick look at numbers from CX, SIA, LAX also suggests ample available cargo space

• 2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. 
• An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.
• Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.

• Reliance bought 5,286 acres of prime industrial land in Navi Mumbai, which was sold for a surprisingly low INR 2,200 cr whose economic value is around INR 1 Lakh cr.
• This complex transaction done at a steep discount raises corporate governance issues for other shareholders like Jai Corp owing to valuations, disclosure lapses and minority shareholder rights.
• We delve into details of the deal structure and what it means for respective companies’s shareholders.

• NewMarket Corporation reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, presenting a mixed performance with noteworthy insights into its operations and strategic initiatives.
• In terms of financial performance, the company achieved a net income of $132 million, translating to $13.79 per share, compared to $111 million or $11.60 per share in the same period last year.
• This indicates an improvement in profitability on a year-over-year basis.

• AI agents are becoming more powerful assistants but need careful management to avoid potential risks.
• Honor is preparing for an IPO with corporate restructuring and rebranding efforts.
• Taiwan tightens restrictions on tech exports to China while the US considers banning Chinese drones like DJI.

• Admiral shares have shown strong performance with a 13% CAGR since May 2018 and reaching all-time-highs after 1H24 results
• Despite recent pullbacks, Admiral’s market cap of £8.6bn is considered very cheap
• The market underestimates Admiral’s potential, with the business transitioning from a “sell” to a “buy” consensus in recent years and earnings upgrades through 2024

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Triumph Group presented a mix of performance outcomes in its second quarter fiscal 2025 results.
• The company demonstrated a commendable increase in its aftermarket growth, which surged 13% year-over-year and contributed over 60% to its profit.
• This was achieved through robust spares and repairs activities within both commercial and military sectors, setting a positive trend amid some broader market challenges.

• Valvoline Inc. announced its fourth-quarter and full fiscal year 2024 earnings, underlining its solid market position in the retail services sector, yet facing specific growth challenges.
• For fiscal 2024, Valvoline reported a significant 12% increase in system-wide store sales reaching $3.1 billion, along with adjusted EBITDA growth of 17% to $443 million.
• However, there were concerns as net revenue and same-store sales growth landed just below expectations.

• Great portfolio of assets, most notably 10 hotels under the Peninsula brand name
• Capex has been excessive over the past 10 years, especially in London, but the company is now focused on execution and paying back debt. Both London and Istanbul ramping up.
• NAV per share of HK$24 per share, putting at the HK$6.2 price at a 74% discount to NAV. Key is whether Philip Kadoorie will unlock value once he takes over.

• Tri Pointe Homes’ (TPH) latest financial results for the third quarter of 2024 present a combination of robust performance metrics and strategic market positioning, alongside noted challenges in certain geographies and market segments.
• As a residential home builder operating across diverse U.S. markets, Tri Pointe achieved notable gains in home deliveries, revenue growth, and profitability, yet remains vigilant of macroeconomic and regional headwinds impacting future outlook.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Stevanato Group’s third-quarter 2024 financial results present a complex picture that warrants a balanced examination of both its organizational strategies and market dynamics.
• The company reported a modest 2% revenue growth year-over-year, slightly tempered by persistent challenges in its Engineering segment and vial destocking effects.
• These factors influenced management’s decision to lower the full-year 2024 guidance for adjusted EBITDA and adjusted diluted EPS.