Energy & Materials Sector

• Shell–BP deal offers strong industrial logic, with $70B in synergies justifying a 40–50% premium while delivering robust EPS accretion and strategic energy transition alignment.
• Regulatory hurdles are real but manageable, with anticipated divestitures in UK/EU fuel retail and limited structural issues in the U.S.
• Multiple financing structures are viable; a 60/40 cash-stock mix preserves leverage discipline, limits dilution, and enhances deal feasibility from a risk-arb perspective.

• Cemex 1Q25: Credit Strength Persists, but No Catalyst for Spread Compression
• Pemex 1Q25: Upgraded to Market Perform, but Structural Risks Persist
• YPF and Globant Sign Agreement to Modernize Supply Chain with AI

• Balchem Corporation reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, marked by record consolidated revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted net income.
• The company recorded $251 million in revenue, representing a 4.5% increase over the prior year, driven by growth in all three of its reporting segments: Human Nutrition & Health, Animal Nutrition & Health, and Specialty Products.
• Gross margin improved by 120 basis points to 35.2%, driven by a favorable product mix, while operating expenses declined by $3 million year-over-year due to lower amortization and compensation-related costs.

• The Dow Chemical Company has reported its first-quarter financial results for 2025, presenting a mixed picture of operational achievements and ongoing challenges.
• The company generated $10.4 billion in net sales, down 3% from the prior year due to persistent margin pressures across all operating segments.
• While sequential sales remained flat, highlighting pricing challenges in Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure and Performance Materials & Coatings, these were somewhat counterbalanced by improvements in downstream silicone markets tied to home, personal care, and electronics.

• In the recently conducted conference call, Eastman Chemical Company (Eastman) provided insights into their first quarter financial results for 2025 and outlined expectations and challenges for the remainder of the year.
• The discussion indicated both positive operational performance and challenges stemming mainly from international trade dynamics, notably with China.
• Positively, Eastman’s methanolysis program at Kingsport is progressing well.

• Teck Resources Limited, a major Canadian mining and minerals company, presented its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, highlighting both achievements and ongoing challenges.
• The past few months have seen a challenging macroeconomic environment marked by geopolitical tensions, inflation, and supply chain disruptions.
• Despite this, Teck remains focused on copper and zinc production, crucial for long-term industrial demand driven by global electrification, manufacturing, and infrastructure needs.

• JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)‘s resolution plan for Bhushan Power & Steel was rejected by the Supreme Court, ordering its liquidation.
• The rejection undermines JSW Steel’s capacity expansion and investment plans, leading to significant financial and strategic setbacks.
• The ruling highlights the importance of strict adherence to IBC provisions and raises concerns over the predictability of large asset resolutions.

• Source Rock is an oil and gas royalty company with interests in lands across Saskatchewan and Alberta.
• SRR has grown average daily production at a 16% CAGR since 2021, resulting in adjusted EBITDA growing at a 22% CAGR.
• Source Rock offers a >9% dividend yield which has grown at 2.5% annually since initiating the dividend in 2014.

• Over the past three weeks, the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has staged one of the strongest rebounds since the early April Trump-tariff shock, rallying approximately +15% from its 16-month low.
• Several factors are driving the rally: recent passive flow activity, as highlighted by Brian Freitas but also broad-based sector strength, with notable gains in energy, healthcare, and consumer staples.
• Despite a positive outlook, our models indicate the index is currently OVERBOUGHT. This insight breaks down the key details.

• SGX Iron Ore Futures fell 4.3% WoW to $95.85/ton, closing just above S2 support as bearish momentum strengthened
• Prices are trading below all key moving averages, with a recent death cross and RSI at 38.17, indicating continued downside risk
• Managed Money and Physicals turned net short, while total futures and options open interest rose 4.2% WoW, reflecting rising bearish positioning

• US markets were in risk-on mode overnight, amid strong earnings from tech companies.
• The S&P 500 was up 0.6% for the eighth consecutive day, while the Nasdaq gained 1.5%.
• US Treasuries steepened, with the 2Y yield shrinking by 5 bps but the 30Y gaining 3 bps as investors slightly curbed their bets on US interest-rate cuts this year given factory activity data, while keeping the inflation expectation further out.

• NewMarket Corporation’s first quarter of 2025 results present a complex financial landscape characterized by both strengths and challenges.
• The company reported a net income of $126 million, translating to $13.26 per share, a notable increase from $108 million, or $11.23 per share, in the same quarter the previous year.
• This positive growth in net income suggests strong profitability management, despite facing a decline in sales figures in some segments.

Canyon Resources has received an approval that grants it land access at the established port of Douala. With rail access already secured through the investment in Camrail, this is the final infrastructure agreement required for the development of the Minim Martap project. It also paves the way for the company’s majority shareholder, Eagle Eye Asset Holdings (EEA), to exercise its 500m options that will bring in A$35m. Access to rail and port significantly de-risks the project, supporting Canyon’s target of first shipment in H126. We maintain our project level NPV at US$566m (A$889m).

• Reliance Inc.’s first-quarter performance in 2025 highlighted both robust financial metrics and some challenges emerging from the broader economic landscape.
• The company reported a non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.77, surpassing internal projections, signifying strength despite prevailing market uncertainty.
• This outperformance was driven by a 12.8% increase in tons sold compared to the previous quarter, attributed both to organic growth and the incorporation of four acquisitions made in 2024.

• Vale is guiding for stable iron ore production of 325–335 Mt in 2025 and steady copper and nickel growth, supported by disciplined capex and portfolio optimization.
• While dam reparation exposures are fully provisioned, execution risks around ongoing environmental obligations and community projects remain a critical overhang.
• The stock appears cheap at ~3.1x EV/EBITDA but looks relatively expensive on a reserve-based valuation, reflecting the market’s cautious view on long-term growth visibility and external risks.

• Vale S.A.’s first-quarter 2025 earnings report offers a nuanced view of its performance amid dynamic market conditions and strategic initiatives.
• Starting with an increase in iron ore sales by 4% year-on-year to 66 million tons, the company effectively managed its integrated supply chain despite a 4% decrease in production caused by higher rainfall in critical mining regions.
• Vale continues to focus on operational excellence, as evidenced by the S11D project achieving its highest production for the first quarter, driven by asset reliability improvements.

• Vedanta reported 10% revenue growth and 37% EBITDA growth in FY25, supported by volume expansion across aluminium and zinc businesses.
• Major capex projects, including Gamsberg Phase 2 and captive bauxite and coal mines, are expected to drive volume growth through FY27, with steady operational guidance.
• Vedanta Resources standalone net debt reduced from $8.9 billion to $4.9 billion over three years, easing refinancing risks and improving financial flexibility.

• • 1Q25 net production was 246 boe/d.
• This is in line with our expectations.
• ADX held A$6.7 mm in cash at the end of March.

• FY25 steel production grew 2% YoY to 8.12 MT; adjusted EBITDA stood at Rs9,570 crore with EBITDA/t of Rs12,008; net debt/EBITDA improved to 1.26x.
• Major projects including BF2, BOS2, CRM complex, slurry pipeline, and SBPP are targeted for commissioning by FY26-end, expanding steel capacity to 14.45 MTPA.
• Near-Term priorities are volume ramp-up, improving cost efficiency through captive resources and logistics, and maintaining strict capital discipline with net debt/EBITDA below 1.5x.

• Sales increased 13.6% YoY to JPY119.0bn, with Electronics segment sales rising 14.4% YoY to JPY81.7bn.
• Operating profit grew 21.2% YoY to JPY22.1bn, driven by high-value-added products and yen depreciation benefits.
• Medical and Pharmaceuticals segment profit declined 36.9% YoY due to increased costs and impairment loss.

• CSI All Share Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Index represents the largest and most-liquid stocks in the Semiconductor Industry Group from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Exchanges.
• In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
• We expect up to four ADDs and six DELs for the CSI All Share Semiconductors index during this index review based on the latest available data.

• Indian regulator barred Gensol Engineering’s founders for alleged fund diversion, causing a 90% stock plunge
• Unusual growth and poor governance were flagged in Gensol’s accounts by Transparently’s AI system
• Transparently’s “F” risk rating would have likely steered investors away from Gensol.

• In FY03/25, Itochu Enex reported JPY924.5bn sales revenue (-4.0% YoY), JPY26.9bn operating profit (+14.0% YoY), JPY17.1bn net profit (+23.2% YoY).
• For FY03/26, Itochu Enex forecasts JPY24.5bn operating profit (-2.0% YoY), JPY26.3bn pre-tax profit (+1.2% YoY), JPY16.0bn net profit (+3.2% YoY).
• Itochu Enex’s ENEX2030 plan targets JPY16.0bn net income annually, JPY38.0bn net operating cash flow, 9.0% ROE, JPY50.0bn investments.

• • Southern achieved production of 2,259 boe/d in 4Q24, close to with our forecasts of 2,192 boe/d.
• The YE24 working capital deficit of US$24.9 mm also met our expectations.
• • YE24 1P and 2P reserves were estimated at 12.7 mmboe and 27.9 mmboe, respectively.

• Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has been in an a prolonged uptrend for several weeks, 1-week pullbacks have been buy-the-dips opportunities so far.
• Last week Gold closed down, a modest 1-week pullback, it may be an opportunity to buy but we want to show you where is the ideal support zone to buy.
• In this insight we will also identify also profit targets, in case gold keeps rallying from here, so that you know how far the rally can go.

• Sidara’s proposal, Board support, and advanced due diligence underpin a credible path to deal completion, despite market volatility and suspension risks temporarily depressing Wood Group’s trading price.
• Investors entering at distressed levels around 17.89p enjoy a highly favorable risk-reward skew, with potential upside of 95% against manageable downside risks if the transaction ultimately collapses.
• Existing holders at 26.1p face a more binary outcome, but strategic intent, historical precedents, and Sidara’s prior investment case suggest maintaining exposure through the critical May 15 decision point.

• This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched – which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always become more stretched.
• Note: We’re long the June contract of Gold since mid of March
• Another interesting thought regarding gold demand going forward: if AI models really become more efficient and less data center usage is needed, demand for gold in tech could be affected as well.

• US domestic Group I brightstock price outperforms lighter grades and Group II prices.
• US export brightstock prices significantly lag brightstock prices in Europe and Asia.
• Widening price-discount reflects signs of increasingly diverging supply-demand fundamentals between US and Europe and Asia.

• Global base oils price premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices stays higher at end-April 2025 than a month earlier.
• Higher margins coincide with seasonal rise in demand and plant maintenance work.
• Higher margins follow sharp fall in crude oil prices.

• PBoC holds the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%; both historic lows as trade tensions persist. 
• China’s Politburo vows faster bond issuance, lose monetary policy, and job protection measures to counter persistent economic challenges.
• Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports increased in late April, ending a three-week decline, signaling softening near-term demand.

• FY25 EBITDA growth was primarily volume-driven, with EBITDA/ton declining to Rs988 due to flat realizations and initial dilution from acquisitions.
•  UltraTech is investing Rs1,800 crore to enter the cables and wires segment, targeting December 2026 commissioning and leveraging its existing retail and B2B networks.
• At Rs12,000 per share, the stock trades at 51–53x FY26E EPS, supported by expectations of sustained volume growth and operational efficiency gains.

• For the week ending 25/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 9.5% on the back of warmer weather forecasts and rising production.
• For the week ending 18/Apr, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.
• Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.96 on 28/Apr compared to 0.93 on 17/Apr. Call OI decreased by 18.5%, while put OI dropped by 16.1%.

• BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are projected to decline by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively, due to lower hydrocarbon output, weaker gas marketing, and subdued trading results.
• BP expects oil production earnings to remain flat sequentially, with refining margins adding USD 100-300 million to Q1 earnings, while oil trading performance is anticipated to remain unchanged.
• The company expects net debt to increase by USD 4 billion from the previous quarter’s USD 23 billion, citing seasonal inventory builds and timing of payments.

• 4Q24 net production was 4,738 boe/d.
• The YE24 cash position had been reported previously and there are no surprises in the remainder of the YE24 balance sheet.
• The existing rig is being mobilized to Alberta Llanos to drill two new horizontal development wells in 2Q25.

• On April 26, 2025, Ramkrishna Forgings (RMKF IN) (RKFL) disclosed that during the annual physical verification of inventory for the financial year ending March 31, 2025, there were discrepancies observed.
• The company has appointed independent external agencies to dig-out the findings, but the fact that management expects a 4-5% erosion of net-worth has caught the attention of many.
• While this exposes the accounting and governance, the bigger picture is that it also exposes a big audit blind spot relating to inventory discrepancy threshold of 10%.

• Rubber products exports to the US falls 4.99% MoM in Feb  
•  Product exports to China surge by 143.22% MoM in Feb  
•  Rubber exports value in Feb soar to US$225.71 million  

• Reliance plans to invest Rs40,000–45,000 crore (30% of total capex) into its New Energy business over FY25–FY28.
• Solar PV manufacturing (10 GW), Green Hydrogen (electrolyzers + hydrogen production), Energy Storage (30 GWh batteries), Biogas (CBG plants), and Carbon Capture initiatives.
• New Energy could contribute 8–10% of Reliance’s total EBITDA over the next 10 years as projects mature and commercial operations ramp up.

• Asia’s base oils demand could wane as expectations of improving supply and more muted end-user consumption incentivize blenders to keep low stocks.
• High base oils margins could add to buyers’ preference to hold back amid concern about disconnect between high margins and prospect of weaker supply-demand fundamentals.
• More muted regional demand would speed up recovery in supply as more plant maintenance draws to a close in coming weeks.

• Newmont Corporation’s recent quarterly results reveal a solid start to 2025, driven by strong operational performance and favorable market conditions, particularly the high gold prices.
• The company produced 1.5 million ounces of gold and 35,000 tonnes of copper in the first quarter, aligning with annual guidance.
• These figures have supported record first-quarter cash flows, with operating cash flows at $2 billion and free cash flow at $1.2 billion.

• CleanTech Lithium 9.75p £9.7m (CTL.L) The lithium developer in Chile announced it is collaborating with DuPont Water Solutions, a business unit of DuPont, to test lithium processing technology.
• DuPont has developed a new nanofiltration membrane technology for high lithium recovery.
• This will be tested in CleanTech Lithium’s direct lithium extraction downstream process.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Medco Energi, Greenko Energy, Vedanta Resources, Reliance Industries
• Last Friday, US Treasuries tightened by 5-8 bps across the curve. US equities continued to recover, albeit at a slow pace, with the S&P 500 up by 0.7% and Nasdaq rising 1.3%.
• The US economy is projected to register a weak 0.4% annualised growth rate in Q1/25, according to the US government’s initial estimate, with a large trade deficit and consumer fatigue contributing to the slowdown, even before the tariff-related upheaval.

• Weatherford International’s first-quarter 2025 performance reflected a complex market environment with both challenges and opportunities.
• The company’s results came in line with earlier expectations, though the trajectory was altered by softer-than-anticipated activity in key regions.
• Mexico witnessed a sharper decline in activity, approximately 60% year-over-year, which was steeper than initially forecasted.

• Argentina’s Economy Grows Above Expectations in February / Vista 1Q25: Strategic Petronas Acquisition Strengthens Credit and Growth Outlook
• Fitch Affirms Cemex at ‘BBB-‘; Stable Outlook Reflects Resilient Credit Profile
• Pemex Rig Suspensions Highlight Ongoing Operational and Financial Risks / MercadoLibre CEO Sees U.S.-China Trade War as Major Opportunity

• IEX reported 18.7% volume growth to 121 BU in FY25, with revenue up 19.3% and PAT up 22.3%, driven by higher RTM and Green Market volumes.
• Strong growth in Green Market and REC trading; new initiatives like Green RTM, Carbon Credit Trading, and Coal Exchange are progressing toward regulatory approvals.
• Management expects volume growth from rising demand and policy support, but regulatory changes and market coupling remain key execution and competitive risks.

• GPIL operates integrated iron ore mining, pellet, and steel facilities with captive power assets in Chhattisgarh.
• Acquired 51% stake in Jammu Pigments to enter non-ferrous recycling.
• Focused on mining and pellet capacity expansion, with selective growth in recycling and smaller steel projects.

• China’s Total Social Financing (TSF) saw a 22% YoY rise, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.
• COMEX spreads rose above 1200 USD/ton, while Yangshan premiums climbed to 90 USD/ton, reinforcing our positive outlook on copper prices.
• Positive Q1 FY25 results from Southern Copper (SCCO US), First Quantum Minerals (FM CN), and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)‘s positive production update have set the tone for a bullish copper outlook.

• Iron ore prices experienced a modest WoW increase of 0.2%, reflecting easing trade tensions as the US considers reducing some of the stringent tariffs previously imposed.
• China’s Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 22% YoY, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.
• China’s March steel production rose 5% YoY to 92.8 million tons, underscoring its vital role in the market, contributing 56% to total global production.

• Revenue in FY03/25 grew 10.4% YoY, with operating profit increasing 41.8% YoY, driven by generative AI demand.
• Net income surged 188.1% YoY due to gains on the sale of shares, despite slowing automotive sales.
• JPC anticipates steady demand for AI-related applications and expects revenue growth in FY03/26 despite higher expenses.

• Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) reported FY earnings to beat January guidance for all four major measures, just slightly. They only guide 1 quarter out, and Q1 is up year-on-year… 
• …in revenues, but down in OP and NP. Note: OP and NP guidance is nearly identical to what they guided for Q1 last year on ¥585bn revenues (vs ¥610bn now)
• The BIG news here is a Very Large Buyback. The company has long has huge piles of cash. This buyback (~90% of annual profit) starts to make use of it.

• Ramkrishna Forgings (RK Forgings) recently reported discrepancies in its inventory during the annual physical verification for FY 2024. 
• The company has engaged independent external agencies to conduct a joint fact-finding study, aiming to maintain transparency and accountability. 
• Estimates suggest an adverse impact of 4-5% on the company’s net worth. While the impact on overall inventory is almost 10% of the total inventory, amounting to INR 120 crore

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and one change for ASX 200. One month left in the reference period.
• Our long basket is up 14% vs shorts in a month. Index Rebal is coming back. ASX Index final index changes will be announced publicly on 6th June 2025.

• Steel Dynamics, Inc. delivered a solid performance in the first quarter of 2025, demonstrating the company’s operational and financial stability amidst a challenging market environment.
• The company reported a net income of $217 million or $1.44 per diluted share, supported by adjusted EBITDA of $448 million.
• Total revenue rose to $4.4 billion, showing a 13% increase from the previous quarter, largely due to record steel shipments.

• Alcoa Corporation reported a strong first quarter for 2025, highlighted by improved safety performance and stable production across most operations.
• The company maintained a commitment to operational excellence, focusing on safety, stability, and continuous improvement amid positive market conditions.
• A key development was the improvement at the Alumar smelter in Brazil, which is now operating at 91% capacity.

• Hindustan Zinc’s Q4 FY25 PAT rose 47% YoY to Rs3,003 crore; EBITDA grew 32% YoY; zinc cost of production hit a 16-quarter low at $994/t.
• FY26 guidance targets 1.12 Mt mined metal, 700–710 MT silver, and zinc cost of production between $1,025–1,050/t, slightly higher due to ore grade normalization.
• HZL trades at ~21.5x P/E and ~12x EV/EBITDA, at a premium to some global peers, with valuations sensitive to commodity prices, cost trends, and execution on expansion plans.

• Range Resources Corporation reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, emphasizing its disciplined operational approach and efficiency gains.
• The company achieved robust free cash flow while maintaining a low level of capital intensity, which it leveraged to increase shareholder returns and reduce debt.
• This aligns with Range Resources’ longstanding strategic focus on maintaining a stable base of production and expanding its drilled uncompleted (DUC) inventory, ensuring flexibility for future growth.

• Halliburton Company’s first-quarter 2025 financial performance presented a picture of mixed results, amid dynamic and shifting market conditions, impacting its regional operations, revenues, and strategic outlook.
• The company reported total revenue of $5.4 billion and an adjusted operating margin of 14.5%.
• A significant highlight from this quarter emanated from international markets, where revenue dipped to $3.2 billion, largely impacted by a 19% decline in Mexico.

• Baker Hughes Company delivered strong results in the first quarter of 2025, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $1.04 billion, marking a 10% year-over-year increase.
• The performance was driven primarily by the Industrial & Energy Technology (IET) segment, which experienced significant growth and contributed to the company’s overall margin expansion.
• Revenues for the quarter hit a record, supported by effective operational execution and strategic transformations, despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop marked by geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainties, and fluctuating oil prices.

• EQT Corporation delivered strong results in the first quarter of 2025, emphasizing its strategic approach to maximizing value amid price volatility.
• The company reported robust production at the high end of its guidance, aided by effective well performance and minimal winter disruptions.
• Tactics like increasing production during highdemand winter periods allowed EQT to benefit from favorable Appalachian pricing, significantly boosting its core differential.

• SGX IO Futures gained $2.69/ton this week, closing at $100.24/ton on April 23, breaking above the R1 level of $99.00/ton.
• Managed Money flipped to net short while Physicals turned net long, signaling a major positioning shift
• MACD divergence and RSI at 51.09 reflect building bullish momentum despite prices trading below long-term moving averages.

• Waaree Energies posted exceptional Q4 and FY25 results, reporting a 72.6% YoY increase in EBITDA and a robust order book of INR 47,000 crores.
• The company continues to ramp up its manufacturing capacities, with a focus on solar cells, modules, and energy storage, positioning itself as a leader in India’s solar transition.
• Strong operational performance, strategic investments in green energy, and a solid order book enhance confidence in Waaree’s growth prospects for FY26 and beyond.

• U.S. oil producers need prices between USD 61-70 per barrel to maintain profitability. With prices around USD 60 per barrel, drilling activity is likely to decrease.
• Rising tariffs and trade uncertainty are increasing oilfield equipment costs and threatening production growth in the United States.
• While Saudi Arabia faces fiscal pressures and OPEC supply constraints, Petrobras benefits from low breakeven costs, no OPEC restrictions, and strong investment.

• Waaree Energies is rapidly expanding, targeting 21 GW solar modules, 11.4 GW cells, and 6 GW ingots by FY27
• The company boasts a robust Rs 47,000 crore order book, with 57% international and 43% domestic market share
• Waaree diversifies into batteries, green hydrogen, and inverters, while mitigating risks via local production

• Verallia, a global leader in glass packaging, recently reported its financial results for the fiscal year 2024.
• The company’s extensive footprint includes operations in 12 countries with 35 plants and 64 furnaces, supported by a customer base of over 10,000.
• In 2024, Verallia’s sales were distributed across several segments, including still wine (32%), spirits (16%), and food (17%).

• RSS-4 prices near stable around INR 198/kg for past ten days  
• Kerala farmers engaged in rainguarding in right earnest  
• RRII devises process for extracting top-quality rubber from skim latex  

• Crude prices plunged to multi-year lows amid rising global supply and trade tensions, stoking demand fears and slowing U.S. shale activity.
• Oilfield services firms are underperforming peers as falling rig counts and steel tariffs drive up costs and erode margins.
• With fixed-cost-heavy models and fewer upstream clients, the sector faces amplified downside risks and limited pricing power in the near term.

• The Capricornus 1-X exploration well on PEL 85 (bp/Eni/Rhino) found 38 m of net pay, with the reservoir showing good petrophysical properties and no observed water contact.
• The well achieved a surface-constrained flow rate in excess of 11,000 bbl/d.
• The light 37° API oil exhibited limited associated gas with less than 2% CO2 and no hydrogen sulphide.

Pan African’s headline EPS (HEPS) for H125 appeared to show a decline of 43.7% y-o-y relative to its (restated) prior year number. However, if the loss attributable to its Mintails contract liability and its 5.6% (4,779oz) under-sale of gold relative to production are stripped out, we calculate that its normalised HEPS number was c 2.78c and almost exactly in line with our prior expectations (see Exhibit 2). We have reduced our production expectation for the full year by 2.7%. Nevertheless, production in H225 is anticipated to rise 43.0% compared to H125 and is the perfect springboard for PAF to attain our (upgraded) normalised HEPS forecast of 11.19c in FY26 (which is slightly conservative within the consensus range; see Exhibit 6). Our FY25e normalised HEPS forecast remains unchanged.

• Sailfish Royalty reported Q4 and 2024 financial results that missed our estimates due to weak silver production from Mako Mining.
• The Spring Valley Project is advancing ahead of schedule, and thus, we have pulled our first production start date forward by three quarters.
• Please refer to our Spring Valley Updates section.