India

In today’s briefing:

India’s Summer Stock: Voltas Ltd- Navigating Supply Headwinds
Manappuram Finance: Bain Capital’s Entry Signals a New Chapter, But Challenges Remain
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

India’s Summer Stock: Voltas Ltd- Navigating Supply Headwinds

Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) is shifting to a volume-led strategy while investing INR 260 crore to build in-house compressor manufacturing under PLI 3.0.
This approach de-risks supply chains, maintains mass-market pricing, and supports growth amid rising raw material and currency pressures.
Voltas is evolving from a margin-led to scale-focused player, making it a resilient long-term bet on India’s low AC penetration and summer-driven demand.

Manappuram Finance: Bain Capital’s Entry Signals a New Chapter, But Challenges Remain

Bain Capital is acquiring a 41.7–46% stake in Manappuram Finance (MGFL IN), marking a shift from a promoter-led to a professionally managed NBFC.
This deal injects INR 4,385 crore in fresh capital, strengthens governance, and positions Manappuram for growth beyond gold loans into microfinance, vehicle loans, and housing finance.
While execution risks remain, Bain’s track record in financial services suggests a long-term transformation, potentially closing Manappuram’s valuation gap with Muthoot Finance.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greenko Energy
In the US, the Conference Board Leading Index declined 0.3% (-0.2% e / -0.2% revised p) in February to 101.1. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, noted that “consumers’ expectations of future business conditions turned more pessimistic. Manufacturing new orders, which improved in January, retreated and were the second largest negative contributor to the Index’s monthly decline”.
Separately, existing home sales unexpectedly rebounded 4.2% m-o-m (-3.2% e / -4.7% p) to 4.26 mn units in February. Sales climbed the most in the west and south regions, which were afflicted at the start of the year by wildfires in Los Angeles and severe winter storms, respectively.

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Mar 21

Daily Brief India: Ambuja Cements, Bajaj Finance Ltd, NIFTY Index, Nmdc Ltd, EAAA India Alternatives Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

The Beat Ideas: Adani Cements: Massive 140 MTPA Capacity Expansion, A Roadmap to FY28
Bajaj Finance (BAF): Robust Growth in Place
Central Banks Hold Steady Amid Global Economic Uncertainty
NMDC: Proxy to Rising Steel Demand with a High Dividend Yield.
EAAA India Pre-IPO – Quality Management Fee Stream but Future AUM Raising Could Be Difficult

The Beat Ideas: Adani Cements: Massive 140 MTPA Capacity Expansion, A Roadmap to FY28

Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN), established in 1983 by traders Narotam Sekhsaria and Suresh Neotia, leveraged strategic foresight to become a premier Indian cement giant within the diversified Adani Group.
In 2022, Adani acquired Ambuja Cement at INR 385/share, valuing it at INR 49,620 crore ($6.4 billion), at EBITDA/ton levels (INR900-INR1,000) similar to the company’s current performance.
Ambuja Cement is strategically positioned to achieve a substantial 44% increase in its cement production capacity by FY28, reaching a total of 140 MTPA from the current 97 MTPA.

Bajaj Finance (BAF): Robust Growth in Place

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Bajaj Finance Ltd (“BAF”) reported a strong Q3FY25 led by good volume growth and AUM growth. It saw highest ever new loans at 12.06mm. AUM growth was INR 24119cr.
Despite elevated credit costs for peers, BAF has been relatively insulated and reported steady asset quality. ROA and Opex were also steady at around 4.5% and 33%, respectively.
In line with BAF’s long-range strategy, BAF is increasingly adopting AI to improve productivity. As part of this, BAF unveiled a BFL 3.0 FINAI company.

Central Banks Hold Steady Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

By Gaudenz Schneider

Central banks globally are making rate decisions, with the Fed holding steady while Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, and the UK announce their decisions today.
Mexico and Canada are central banks to watch, with Fitch forecasting both economies to enter recession in 2025 due to their high US trade exposure.
The US’s global reciprocal tariffs, set to be revealed on April 2, have significant implications for the global economy, with the potential to influence central bank policies worldwide.

NMDC: Proxy to Rising Steel Demand with a High Dividend Yield.

By Rahul Jain

NMDC has aggressive growth plans to double its output over the next 5-6 years. Near-term guidance is also strong with plans to grow at >10% in FY26.
New levies, delays in execution and lacklustre pricing outlook remain a key concern. However, well-aligned to surging demand from steadily growing domestic steel industry.
Valuations: Trades at 9x TTM PE which is a slight premium to 5 yr average. Stock offers about 4-5% dividend yield and has payout ratio of >30% provides downside support.

EAAA India Pre-IPO – Quality Management Fee Stream but Future AUM Raising Could Be Difficult

By Nicholas Tan

EAAA India Alternatives Ltd (1619210D IN) is planning to raise about US$177m through its upcoming India IPO.
It is one of the leading alternatives platforms in India, with AUM of INR 572.62bn (US$6.63bn), as of 9M24, amassing 15 years of experience.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Mar 20

Daily Brief India: Quess Corp Ltd, NIFTY Index, Anthem Biosciences and more

In today’s briefing:

Quess Corp Demerger: Value Unlocking & Strategic Shift to Drive Growth
NIFTY Tactical Outlook: Profit Target Is About To Be Reached, What’s Next?
Anthem Biosciences Pre-IPO – The Negatives- Margins Aren’t There Yet

Quess Corp Demerger: Value Unlocking & Strategic Shift to Drive Growth

Quess Corp Ltd (QUESS IN) is strategically demerging into 3 distinct segments, enabling focused strategies and boosting growth potential for each, paving the way for greater success and innovation.
Previously, the high-margin Global Technology Solutions segment contributed 12% of revenue, but its potential was overlooked within the larger company. Now, with demerging, it gains specialized focus and proper valuation.
The demerger gives investors the flexibility to choose between cash-generating, high-margin, or moderate-margin businesses, with the added option of a platform for job hunting, all backed by focused, specialized management.

NIFTY Tactical Outlook: Profit Target Is About To Be Reached, What’s Next?

By Nico Rosti

The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) has reached 22939 on Wednesday, our model indicates that if the index reaches the 23320 target, there would be a 75% probability of pullback.
From the perspective of our time model, the index could continue to rise for at least 1 more week.
We conclude that it’s possible that the index keeps rallying 1 more week towards 23320, then a pullback could start – for now the index seems stuck in its downtrend.

Anthem Biosciences Pre-IPO – The Negatives- Margins Aren’t There Yet

By Akshat Shah

Anthem Biosciences (1234D IN) is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming India IPO.
Anthem Biosciences (ABS) is a contract research, development and manufacturing organisation (CRDMO) with fully integrated operations spanning drug discovery, development, and manufacturing.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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Mar 19

Daily Brief India: Kolte Patil Developers, Coromandel International, Fujiyama Power Systems Ltd, Bajaj Finserv , Anthem Biosciences and more

In today’s briefing:

Blackstone’s ₹1,800 Crore Residential Bet on Kolte-Patil
Coromandel’s Strategic Play for NACL Industries: Bottom of the Agrochem Cycle Bargain?
Fujiyama Power Systems Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Bajaj Finserv Acquires Full Control of Bajaj Allianz Life & General Insurance
Anthem Biosciences Pre-IPO – The Positives – Portfolio Expansion, Increasing Capacity to Fuel Growth

Blackstone’s ₹1,800 Crore Residential Bet on Kolte-Patil

Blackstone (BX US) is investing INR 1,800 crore to acquire a 66% stake in Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN), marking its first big move into India’s residential real estate market.
This deal signals rising institutional interest in India’s housing sector and sets the stage for a potential residential REIT, similar to Blackstone’s office REIT playbook.
The residential segment, long seen as fragmented and informal, may now see valuation re-ratings, increased M&A activity, and formalization driven by global capital.

Coromandel’s Strategic Play for NACL Industries: Bottom of the Agrochem Cycle Bargain?

Coromandel International (CRIN IN),a key Murugappa Group company, acquired a 53% controlling stake in NACL Industries for INR 820Crs on March 12, 2025 at INR 76.70 per share.
NACL Industries is a Hyderabad-based agrochemical firm with manufacturing units, a diverse product portfolio, and technical export capabilities, including a presence in contract manufacturing.
With this merger at decent valuation, Murugappa group(which is known for efficient capital allocation) certainly make it more efficient and value accretive for their business.

Fujiyama Power Systems Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Fujiyama Power Systems Ltd (1742651D IN) (FPSL) is planning to raise about US$138m through its upcoming India IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Motilal, SBI.
FPSL was established in 1996. The company specializes in solar panel and inverter manufacturing, covering on-grid, hybrid, and off-grid solutions, along with lead acid and lithium-ion battery production.
As per CARE Report, it was the 1st Indian company to develop an SMT-based inverter with a single card in 2000.

Bajaj Finserv Acquires Full Control of Bajaj Allianz Life & General Insurance

Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) has acquired Allianz’s 26% stake in both insurance JVs for INR 24,180 crore, gaining full control of Bajaj Allianz Life and General Insurance.
This unlocks platform-wide integration across lending, wealth, and insurance, setting Bajaj up as a full-stack financial services powerhouse with total strategic control.
With valuations set and consolidation likely, India’s insurance sector enters a new era- where scale, tech, and single ownership will drive future leadership.

Anthem Biosciences Pre-IPO – The Positives – Portfolio Expansion, Increasing Capacity to Fuel Growth

By Akshat Shah

Anthem Biosciences (1234D IN) is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming India IPO.
Anthem Biosciences (ABS) is a contract research, development and manufacturing organisation (CRDMO) with fully integrated operations spanning drug discovery, development, and manufacturing.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

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Mar 18

Daily Brief India: Hyundai Motor India , NIFTY Index and more

In today’s briefing:

Hyundai India’s ₹31,500 Cr Related-Party Deal Sparks Governance Debate
Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 10–13): Outperforming SPX in Low-Volatility Trade

Hyundai India’s ₹31,500 Cr Related-Party Deal Sparks Governance Debate

Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN) has proposed seven related-party transactions worth over INR 31,500 crore, just months after its record-breaking IPO.
Proxy advisors are sharply divided, with concerns around valuation, transparency, and fairness, raising governance red flags for a newly listed company.
Despite likely approval due to promoter holding, investor trust hinges on how Hyundai communicates and ensures accountability post-IPO.

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 10–13): Outperforming SPX in Low-Volatility Trade

By John Ley

Nifty traded in an exceptionally narrow range during a holiday-shortened week, a stark contrast to volatility in other markets.
We highlight Nifty’s relative performance against SPX across both long- and short-term time frames.
Implied volatility softened as the quiet range and muted trading activity put pressure on options pricing.

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Mar 17

Daily Brief India: Hindustan Zinc, NIFTY Index and more

In today’s briefing:

Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) Silver Rally Is a Sweetener
NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / IVs Subdued as Options Markets See Low Risk of U.S. Trade Tension Blowup.

Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) Silver Rally Is a Sweetener

By Rahul Jain

Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) is set to see significant earnings upgrades driven surge in silver prices (40% EBITDA share), local currency weakness and benign costs.
Planning for major US$2-2.5b growth expenditure to double output over next 3=5 years.
Valuations: Entering a strong earnings upgrades cycle. Stock can re-rate despite trading at slight premium to historic averages. Stake sales by key holders is a risk.

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / IVs Subdued as Options Markets See Low Risk of U.S. Trade Tension Blowup.

By Sankalp Singh

IVs remain subdued, trading sub-12% levels, as Option Markets expect low impact from U.S.-trade tensions. Risk premia compresses in spite of upcoming FOMC event risk.
Vol term-structure has moved further into Contango. Realized Vol continues to underperform.
Vol-Surface is exhibiting interesting behaviour as Skew has compressed while Smile has extended.

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Mar 15

Daily Brief India: Eicher Motors, Hindustan Copper, Salzer Electronics, Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle Ltd Ltd (BJL) and more

In today’s briefing:

Eicher Motors (EIM IN) | Why Exports Are on Fire
Copper Up 26% YoY, Now at All-Time Highs – Key Drivers
The Beat Ideas: Salzer Electronics: Smart Meter Play, A Proxy to India’s Electrification Story
Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle Pre-IPO – Strong Growth but with Cash Flow Struggles

Eicher Motors (EIM IN) | Why Exports Are on Fire

By Pranav Bhavsar

Eicher Motors (EIM IN), through its brand Royal Enfield, is experiencing strong export performance driven by strategic global expansion in the middleweight motorcycle segment.
The unit in Thailand, serves as a key manufacturing hub, with a CKD assembly facility supporting both local and Asia-Pacific markets.
Royal Enfield’s focus on retro design and competitive pricing attracts customers in Europe and Brazil, filling a niche left by premium brands.

Copper Up 26% YoY, Now at All-Time Highs – Key Drivers

By Rahul Jain

Hindustan Copper (HCP IN) India’s only pure-play copper miner – could see earnings surge >60% if current price buoyancy sustains.
Copper rally appears drive by fundamentals with several large miners such as Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) and Anglo American (AAL LN) guiding declines.
Mining costs are largely location-specific and track inflation trends, supporting significant topline buoyancy.

The Beat Ideas: Salzer Electronics: Smart Meter Play, A Proxy to India’s Electrification Story

Salzer Electronics (SZE IN) is aggressively scaling its smart meter business with INR 600–700 crore revenue targeted in FY26, aiming to sell up to 8 lakh units annually.
This diversification into B2B smart metering could double revenues, boost margins, and improve ROCE, transforming Salzer from a niche switchgear player to a full-stack energy solutions provider.
Salzer is no longer a slow-growing industrial supplier: it’s evolving into a high-growth, government-aligned, tech-driven player with strong export and R&D-led optionality.

Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle Pre-IPO – Strong Growth but with Cash Flow Struggles

By Rosita Fernandes

Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle Ltd Ltd (BJL) (0124165D IN)(BJL) is planning to raise about US$118m in its upcoming India IPO.
BJL offers contemporary lifestyle diamond, gold, platinum, and studded jewellery under its flagship brand.
It is a digital-first direct-to-consumer (DTC) brand and is the second largest digital-first omni-channel jewellery brand in India in terms of revenue for FY24, as per RedSeer Report.

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Mar 14

Daily Brief India: Satyam Computer Services, Gujarat Fluorochemicals, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries and more

In today’s briefing:

The Satyam Scandal: Inside India’s Enron
The Beat Ideas: Gujarat Flurochemicals 2.0: From Fluoropolymer Powerhouse to Battery Technology
How Acquiring Checkpoint Therapeutics Inc Adds Value to Sun Pharma?

The Satyam Scandal: Inside India’s Enron

By Mark Jolley

Satyam’s chairman and founder confessed in January 2009 to misappropriating about $1.5 billion of company funds
Scandal shook confidence in Indian corporate governance and the country’s IT services industry
Transparently.ai’s AI tools detected accounting red flags in Satyam as early as 1998

The Beat Ideas: Gujarat Flurochemicals 2.0: From Fluoropolymer Powerhouse to Battery Technology

GFL is executing a INR 6,000 crore capex plan through FY28 to expand into battery materials, fluorospecialties etc. with commercial production of Battery Chemicals expected to start in Q4 FY25.
This marks a strategic shift from a cyclical chemicals business to a high-margin, clean energy materials play positioning GFL at the core of the EV value chain as China+1 sourcing.
Company is becoming a structural clean-tech growth story. The business could double its revenue base and become global EV materials supplier over the next 3-4 years.

How Acquiring Checkpoint Therapeutics Inc Adds Value to Sun Pharma?

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (SUNP IN) is set to acquire Checkpoint Therapeutics for $355 million, enhancing its onco-dermatology portfolio with UNLOXCYT™, an FDA-approved treatment.
This strategic move provides Sun Pharma with immediate access to the U.S. market and the potential for global expansion, especially in the PD-1 inhibitor space.
The acquisition promises revenue growth and synergistic opportunities, although regulatory approvals and successful integration are crucial for realizing its full potential.

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Mar 13

Daily Brief India: Knowledge Realty Trust and more

In today’s briefing:

Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Knowledge Realty Trust (258259D IN) looks to raise about US$712m through its upcoming India IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Kotak, Axis, BoFA, ICICI, IIFL, JMFin, MS, SBI.
Knowledge Realty Trust (KRT) owns and manages a high-quality office portfolio in India. KRT covered 87% of India’s office supply and gross absorption between FY16-9M24, as per CBRE report.
The portfolio includes 6 city-center offices and 24 business parks/centers. These assets are spread across 6 cities — Hyderabad, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, Gurugram, and GIFT City.

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Mar 12

Daily Brief India: Indusind Bank, Bank Of Baroda, Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd, Shilpa Medicare and more

In today’s briefing:

IndusInd Bank (IIB IN): Stock Crashes on Derivatives Losses; Index Selling Next
IndusInd Bank: Derivative Discrepancy Surfaces, Raising Governance Concerns
Bank of Baroda QIP Early Look – Well Flagged but Last Deal Did Not Do Well
The Beat Ideas: Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd (NHL) ~ Driving Growth from India to Cayman Islands
The Beat Ideas: Shilpa Medicare

IndusInd Bank (IIB IN): Stock Crashes on Derivatives Losses; Index Selling Next

By Brian Freitas

The Indusind Bank (IIB IN) stock was down 27% yesterday following the announcement of Derivatives Portfolio losses that have wiped out 2.35% of equity.
Foreign investors were big sellers in the last 3 months of 2024. That led to increased foreign room, leading to an index upweight in February and index inclusion in March.
The drop in market cap and free float market cap will see Indusind Bank (IIB IN) deleted from the S&P BSE SENSEX Index in June and the NIFTY Index in September.

IndusInd Bank: Derivative Discrepancy Surfaces, Raising Governance Concerns

IndusInd Bank recently disclosed a significant accounting discrepancy in its derivatives portfolio, estimated to impact its net worth by INR 1,580 crore (~2.35%).
The issue pertains to internal trades executed over the past 7–8 years, now identified through a detailed internal review initiated following regulatory changes.
This development, when viewed alongside the abrupt CFO exit, regulatory pushback on CEO tenure, and existing operational challenges, raises concerns around internal controls, risk governance, and management credibility.

Bank of Baroda QIP Early Look – Well Flagged but Last Deal Did Not Do Well

By Akshat Shah

Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN) is looking to raise about INR 85bn (US$980m) in its upcoming qualified institutional placement (QIP).
In an announcement released on Feb 13, 2025, BOB mentioned its board’s approval to raise upto INR85bn via various modes including a QIP. Since then, the shares have corrected 1.2%.
The deal would be a relatively large one to digest at 39 days of three month ADV. The company’s last fundraise did not do well.

The Beat Ideas: Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd (NHL) ~ Driving Growth from India to Cayman Islands

Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd (NARH IN) is a prominent player in the Indian healthcare sector, distinguished by its commitment to providing affordable, high-quality medical services.
The company established its first international hospital in the Cayman Islands in 2014, targeting patients from the Americas and Caribbean regions by offering competitively priced medical services
Management has outlined a capex guidance of around INR 4,000 crores over the next 3 to 4 years, funded by healthy cash flows and stable operating margins.

The Beat Ideas: Shilpa Medicare