Industrials

• Daehan Shipbuilding (439260 KS)  is looking to raise up to US$370m in its upcoming Korean IPO.
• It specializes in the design and construction of medium-sized (Aframax) and semi-large sized (Suezmax) vessels for crude oil and petroleum product transportation.
• In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

• Asian Terminals (ATI PM) is a steady container port terminal operator, trading at 8.4x PE for FY25e, based on our numbers, and net cash (~10% of the market cap). 
• With the recent approval of a two-phase 16% tariff hike at the Batangas Container Terminal, we see scope for the company to increase its earnings in FY25 and FY26.  
• We also anticipate multiple years of growth (~20% ROCE) as the company embarks on a 4.2 billion peso expansion, and growth from the South Harbor/Manila is expected to be consistent.

• Fortive (FTV) spun off Ralliant (RAL) on Monday June 30, 2025. Shareholders received a share of RAL for 3 shares of FTV owned.

• Ralliant generated $2.2B of revenue in 2024.

• Key segments: 56% of sales in Sensors & Safety (power‑grid monitors, defense, critical-environment sensors) and 44% in Test & Measurement (electronic instrumentation, systems, software).

• Fortive (FTV) spun off 1 share of Ralliant (RAL) for each 3 shares owned.
• As such, Ralliant has 113MM shares outstanding and a market cap of $5.1BN and enterprise value of $6.1BN.
• The rationale for the spin-off is to separate the “BadCo” (Ralliant) from the “GoodCo” (Fortive RemainCo).

• Riverstone’s (RSTON SP — US$779 million) CEO recently bought 1 million shares on the open market.

• That caught my attention. Insider buying after a decline in the share price is usually a positive sign.

• I also knew that Riverstone had been one of the best-performing stocks on the Singapore Stock Exchange, compounding earnings per share at a +15% annual rate since its IPO in 2006.

• Daehan Shipbuilding (439260 KS)  is looking to raise up to US$370m in its upcoming Korean IPO.
• It specializes in the design and construction of medium-sized (Aframax) and semi-large sized (Suezmax) vessels for crude oil and petroleum product transportation.
• In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

• Asian Terminals (ATI PM) is a steady container port terminal operator, trading at 8.4x PE for FY25e, based on our numbers, and net cash (~10% of the market cap). 
• With the recent approval of a two-phase 16% tariff hike at the Batangas Container Terminal, we see scope for the company to increase its earnings in FY25 and FY26.  
• We also anticipate multiple years of growth (~20% ROCE) as the company embarks on a 4.2 billion peso expansion, and growth from the South Harbor/Manila is expected to be consistent.

• Fortive (FTV) spun off Ralliant (RAL) on Monday June 30, 2025. Shareholders received a share of RAL for 3 shares of FTV owned.

• Ralliant generated $2.2B of revenue in 2024.

• Key segments: 56% of sales in Sensors & Safety (power‑grid monitors, defense, critical-environment sensors) and 44% in Test & Measurement (electronic instrumentation, systems, software).

• Fortive (FTV) spun off 1 share of Ralliant (RAL) for each 3 shares owned.
• As such, Ralliant has 113MM shares outstanding and a market cap of $5.1BN and enterprise value of $6.1BN.
• The rationale for the spin-off is to separate the “BadCo” (Ralliant) from the “GoodCo” (Fortive RemainCo).

• Riverstone’s (RSTON SP — US$779 million) CEO recently bought 1 million shares on the open market.

• That caught my attention. Insider buying after a decline in the share price is usually a positive sign.

• I also knew that Riverstone had been one of the best-performing stocks on the Singapore Stock Exchange, compounding earnings per share at a +15% annual rate since its IPO in 2006.

• KHI has retreated 12% from its June 30 high, but is still 69% above its April low, despite guiding for a decline in orders and weak profits in FY Mar-26.
• Orders from Japan’s Ministry of Defense are forecast to drop from ¥772.3 billion to ¥400 billion this fiscal year, while the overall profit of the Aerospace division drops 14%.
• The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on Power Sports & Engines is not factored into guidance, offsetting  what otherwise seem to be conservative assumptions.

• I tally 43 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Two new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Talkmed (TKMED SP)‘s Scheme and Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank (6122 HK)‘s Hobson’s Choice
• Key updates/news took place on New World Resources (NWC AU), Insignia (IFL AU), Silk Logistics (SLH AU), Fengxiang (9977 HK),Domain (DHG AU), Nissin (9066 JP) and VIOL (335890 KS).

• Core & Main reported strong results for its first fiscal quarter of 2025, with net sales reaching a record $1.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA hitting $224 million.
• The company attributed its performance to robust municipal construction activity and funding from government infrastructure initiatives, which continue to create opportunities, particularly in water and wastewater treatment projects.
• However, Core & Main did note a softening in the residential market due to economic uncertainties and affordability pressures, impacting future outlooks slightly.

• KHI has retreated 12% from its June 30 high, but is still 69% above its April low, despite guiding for a decline in orders and weak profits in FY Mar-26.
• Orders from Japan’s Ministry of Defense are forecast to drop from ¥772.3 billion to ¥400 billion this fiscal year, while the overall profit of the Aerospace division drops 14%.
• The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on Power Sports & Engines is not factored into guidance, offsetting  what otherwise seem to be conservative assumptions.

• I tally 43 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Two new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Talkmed (TKMED SP)‘s Scheme and Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank (6122 HK)‘s Hobson’s Choice
• Key updates/news took place on New World Resources (NWC AU), Insignia (IFL AU), Silk Logistics (SLH AU), Fengxiang (9977 HK),Domain (DHG AU), Nissin (9066 JP) and VIOL (335890 KS).

• Core & Main reported strong results for its first fiscal quarter of 2025, with net sales reaching a record $1.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA hitting $224 million.
• The company attributed its performance to robust municipal construction activity and funding from government infrastructure initiatives, which continue to create opportunities, particularly in water and wastewater treatment projects.
• However, Core & Main did note a softening in the residential market due to economic uncertainties and affordability pressures, impacting future outlooks slightly.

• Chinese Autonomous Mobile Robotics player, Geekplus Technology (2590 HK) plans to raise US$300m through its HKEx IPO at a valuation of around US$2.5bn.
• Top line growth has slowed down while there also has been a decline in the no. of newly acquired customers. Exports to US accounts for a significant share of revenues.
• Our valuation analysis suggests that the company’s IPO is significantly overvalued compared to global robotic players.

• SHI has signed an MoU with PetroVietnam Shipyard to build two Suezmax and two LR2 tankers, marking its first move into Vietnam.
• With Geoje running at 117% utilization, SHI has outsourced over 12 Suezmax tankers to PaxOcean Zhoushan and holds ~$3–3.5 billion in tanker backlog.
• While modest in scale, the Vietnam deal could reshape SHI’s outsourcing model—diversifying away from China and laying the groundwork for a longer-term shift in global production strategy.

• Krones AG, a leading provider of filling and packaging technologies, reported its Q1 2025 earnings, showcasing a positive start to the fiscal year.
• The company’s revenue reached €1.410 billion, marking a 13.1% growth compared to the same period in 2024.
• This growth is partially attributed to the inclusion of Netstal, adding approximately €60 million to the revenue.

• Chinese Autonomous Mobile Robotics player, Geekplus Technology (2590 HK) plans to raise US$300m through its HKEx IPO at a valuation of around US$2.5bn.
• Top line growth has slowed down while there also has been a decline in the no. of newly acquired customers. Exports to US accounts for a significant share of revenues.
• Our valuation analysis suggests that the company’s IPO is significantly overvalued compared to global robotic players.

• SHI has signed an MoU with PetroVietnam Shipyard to build two Suezmax and two LR2 tankers, marking its first move into Vietnam.
• With Geoje running at 117% utilization, SHI has outsourced over 12 Suezmax tankers to PaxOcean Zhoushan and holds ~$3–3.5 billion in tanker backlog.
• While modest in scale, the Vietnam deal could reshape SHI’s outsourcing model—diversifying away from China and laying the groundwork for a longer-term shift in global production strategy.

• Krones AG, a leading provider of filling and packaging technologies, reported its Q1 2025 earnings, showcasing a positive start to the fiscal year.
• The company’s revenue reached €1.410 billion, marking a 13.1% growth compared to the same period in 2024.
• This growth is partially attributed to the inclusion of Netstal, adding approximately €60 million to the revenue.

• KCC announced that it is issuing an EB worth $625 million in foreign currency using its stake in HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering as the underlying asset. 
• The asset that is used as the underlying asset for the EB is 2.056 million shares of HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering held by the KCC Corp
• We believe this large EB issue by KCC Corp is likely to have a positive impact on KCC Corp but slightly negative impact on HD KSOE.

• Geekplus Technology (2590 HK) is a leader in the global autonomous mobile robot (AMR) market. It is seeking to raise US$300 million.
• I discussed the investment case in Geekplus Technology IPO (2590 HK): The Investment Case.
• In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price is unattractive.

• Update on changes to and revisions of analysts’ Best Ideas and Conviction Calls, as well as Model Portfolio compositions

• Given the ACCC’s comprehensive list of concerns, as detailed in Silk Logistics (SLH AU): ACCC’s Statement Of Issues, this approval comes as a (pleasant) surprise. 
• DP World’s Offer for Silk Logistics (SLH AU) remains subject to FIRB signing off and a Scheme vote. Neither of which should pose an issue. 
• Timing? The IE and Scheme Booklet are all in place – from December last year. This requires a new schedule from the Courts. A possible revised timetable suggest late-August completion. 

• Eacon Group Co., Ltd (EG) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Haitong.
• EG ranks first among all L4 autonomous driving companies globally by revenue in 2024, as per Frost & Sullivan.
• EG had 11 end-customer groups. Its technology has been deployed across 24 mining sites of leading mining groups like CHN Energy, SPIC, TBEA, Zijin Mining, Shougang Group, and Baowu Group.

• BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, illustrating both robust performance and future growth opportunities.
• The highlights of the quarter included double-digit revenue, EBITDA, and earnings per share growth compared to the previous year.
• This strong performance was attributed to effective execution and an increased pace of work, along with strategic wins in both commercial and government operations.

• KION Group AG, a prominent player in the intralogistics sector, presented a nuanced performance in the first quarter of 2025, showcasing a blend of resilience and challenges that reflect the complex market environment it operates in.
• The company’s financial results illustrate both positive dynamics and areas where uncertainties prevail.
• In terms of order intake, KION displayed robust performance with a notable 11% increase year-over-year, reaching EUR 2.7 billion.

• Terex Corporation’s first-quarter 2025 earnings report presents a mixed outlook, highlighting areas of strong performance while acknowledging ongoing challenges.
• The company’s overall financial performance exceeded its initial expectations, with earnings per share of $0.83 on sales of $1.2 billion.
• The effective tax rate for the quarter was slightly higher at 21%, and the company predicted a return on invested capital of 15%.

• Fraport AG has reported its full fiscal year 2024 results, highlighting both accomplishments and challenges over the period.
• Fraport managed to achieve its financial and operational targets despite encountering a series of external pressures.
• Key financial metrics were noted at all-time highs, with an EBITDA of EUR 1.3 billion and a group net result exceeding EUR 500 million, closely approaching the record levels of 2018.

• RENK Group AG reported its Q1 2025 earnings, showing a mix of positive momentum and some areas to watch.
• The company achieved a record high in order intake, reaching EUR 549 million, up 164% year-over-year, with a robust book-to-bill ratio of 2.0x.
• This is a significant achievement compared to the 0.9x last year, driven by major defense orders and strategic expansions in partnerships with key players in future technologies.

• KCC announced that it is issuing an EB worth $625 million in foreign currency using its stake in HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering as the underlying asset. 
• The asset that is used as the underlying asset for the EB is 2.056 million shares of HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering held by the KCC Corp
• We believe this large EB issue by KCC Corp is likely to have a positive impact on KCC Corp but slightly negative impact on HD KSOE.

• Geekplus Technology (2590 HK) is a leader in the global autonomous mobile robot (AMR) market. It is seeking to raise US$300 million.
• I discussed the investment case in Geekplus Technology IPO (2590 HK): The Investment Case.
• In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price is unattractive.

• Update on changes to and revisions of analysts’ Best Ideas and Conviction Calls, as well as Model Portfolio compositions

• Given the ACCC’s comprehensive list of concerns, as detailed in Silk Logistics (SLH AU): ACCC’s Statement Of Issues, this approval comes as a (pleasant) surprise. 
• DP World’s Offer for Silk Logistics (SLH AU) remains subject to FIRB signing off and a Scheme vote. Neither of which should pose an issue. 
• Timing? The IE and Scheme Booklet are all in place – from December last year. This requires a new schedule from the Courts. A possible revised timetable suggest late-August completion. 

• Eacon Group Co., Ltd (EG) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Haitong.
• EG ranks first among all L4 autonomous driving companies globally by revenue in 2024, as per Frost & Sullivan.
• EG had 11 end-customer groups. Its technology has been deployed across 24 mining sites of leading mining groups like CHN Energy, SPIC, TBEA, Zijin Mining, Shougang Group, and Baowu Group.

• BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, illustrating both robust performance and future growth opportunities.
• The highlights of the quarter included double-digit revenue, EBITDA, and earnings per share growth compared to the previous year.
• This strong performance was attributed to effective execution and an increased pace of work, along with strategic wins in both commercial and government operations.

• KION Group AG, a prominent player in the intralogistics sector, presented a nuanced performance in the first quarter of 2025, showcasing a blend of resilience and challenges that reflect the complex market environment it operates in.
• The company’s financial results illustrate both positive dynamics and areas where uncertainties prevail.
• In terms of order intake, KION displayed robust performance with a notable 11% increase year-over-year, reaching EUR 2.7 billion.

• Terex Corporation’s first-quarter 2025 earnings report presents a mixed outlook, highlighting areas of strong performance while acknowledging ongoing challenges.
• The company’s overall financial performance exceeded its initial expectations, with earnings per share of $0.83 on sales of $1.2 billion.
• The effective tax rate for the quarter was slightly higher at 21%, and the company predicted a return on invested capital of 15%.

• Fraport AG has reported its full fiscal year 2024 results, highlighting both accomplishments and challenges over the period.
• Fraport managed to achieve its financial and operational targets despite encountering a series of external pressures.
• Key financial metrics were noted at all-time highs, with an EBITDA of EUR 1.3 billion and a group net result exceeding EUR 500 million, closely approaching the record levels of 2018.

• RENK Group AG reported its Q1 2025 earnings, showing a mix of positive momentum and some areas to watch.
• The company achieved a record high in order intake, reaching EUR 549 million, up 164% year-over-year, with a robust book-to-bill ratio of 2.0x.
• This is a significant achievement compared to the 0.9x last year, driven by major defense orders and strategic expansions in partnerships with key players in future technologies.

• Geekplus Technology (2590 HK) is a leader in the global autonomous mobile robot (AMR) market. It is seeking to raise US$300 million.     
• Geekplus has been the world’s largest warehouse fulfilment AMR solution provider in terms of revenue for the last six consecutive years.
• The investment case is bearish due to declining growth, lower contract liabilities, hints of window dressing relating to reducing losses and ongoing cash burn.  

• Geek+, global technology company and provider of scalable and flexible highly efficient solutions for warehouses, aims to raise ~$300M in Hong Kong IPO.
• The company is expected to IPO next week and offer price of HK$16.80 implies a market cap of HK$22B (~$2.8B). Geek+ is set to start trading on July 9, 2025.
• I believe that Geek+ has a large runway for growth in the global AMR solution market, but valuation keeps me from being positive on the name.

Singapore Post (SingPost) has experienced significant changes over the last six months, and further change is likely as the company searches for a new CEO. We expect a strategy update following the hiring of the new CEO. The timing of an appointment is unknown, as are the identity of the candidate and the strategy itself. Given the potential upheaval, we withdraw our forecasts pending strategic clarity.

• Daiseki’s Q1 FY02/26 sales rose 7.2% YoY to JPY17.9bn, with operating profit declining 1.9% YoY to JPY3.8bn.
• Daiseki Co.’s FY02/25 sales reached JPY38.5bn, driven by increased recycled fuel shipments, despite flat wastewater intake.
• DES’s FY02/25 sales declined 17.4% YoY to JPY19.9bn, with operating profit down 19.3% YoY to JPY2.3bn.

• In this edition: • InPost | Advent sold a further 3.5% interest via accelerated placement • JDE Peet’s | sets accelerating medium-term financial targets • PostNL | unions express concerns about mail market proposals to Economic Affairs Minister

• Soilbuild Construction’s revenue surged 58.4% in FY2024, driven by a S$647.5 million PSA Supply Chain Hub contract.
• The Construction division contributed 81.5% to total revenue, while Precast and Prefabrication grew by 87.1% in FY2024.
• Soilbuild Construction generated S$35.9 million in operating cash flow in FY2024, improving liquidity for ongoing projects.

• Titan International is a global manufacturer of off-the-road tires, wheels and undercarriages.
• The company serves the agricultural, earthmoving / construction, and consumer markets.
• Long-term secular tailwinds exist in the global agricultural, infrastructure and construction markets.

• Tsubakimoto Kogyo Co., Ltd., (hereafter, the Company) announced its Full-year FY2025/3 results on May 8, 2025.
• The Company achieved record-high orders, sales, and profits across the board, along with a record order backlog.
• Both net sales and all levels of profit exceeded initial forecasts. This is due to conservative assumptions about the pace of reducing its large order backlog.

• Geekplus Technology (2590 HK) is a leader in the global autonomous mobile robot (AMR) market. It is seeking to raise US$300 million.     
• Geekplus has been the world’s largest warehouse fulfilment AMR solution provider in terms of revenue for the last six consecutive years.
• The investment case is bearish due to declining growth, lower contract liabilities, hints of window dressing relating to reducing losses and ongoing cash burn.  

• Geek+, global technology company and provider of scalable and flexible highly efficient solutions for warehouses, aims to raise ~$300M in Hong Kong IPO.
• The company is expected to IPO next week and offer price of HK$16.80 implies a market cap of HK$22B (~$2.8B). Geek+ is set to start trading on July 9, 2025.
• I believe that Geek+ has a large runway for growth in the global AMR solution market, but valuation keeps me from being positive on the name.

Singapore Post (SingPost) has experienced significant changes over the last six months, and further change is likely as the company searches for a new CEO. We expect a strategy update following the hiring of the new CEO. The timing of an appointment is unknown, as are the identity of the candidate and the strategy itself. Given the potential upheaval, we withdraw our forecasts pending strategic clarity.

• Daiseki’s Q1 FY02/26 sales rose 7.2% YoY to JPY17.9bn, with operating profit declining 1.9% YoY to JPY3.8bn.
• Daiseki Co.’s FY02/25 sales reached JPY38.5bn, driven by increased recycled fuel shipments, despite flat wastewater intake.
• DES’s FY02/25 sales declined 17.4% YoY to JPY19.9bn, with operating profit down 19.3% YoY to JPY2.3bn.

• In this edition: • InPost | Advent sold a further 3.5% interest via accelerated placement • JDE Peet’s | sets accelerating medium-term financial targets • PostNL | unions express concerns about mail market proposals to Economic Affairs Minister

• Soilbuild Construction’s revenue surged 58.4% in FY2024, driven by a S$647.5 million PSA Supply Chain Hub contract.
• The Construction division contributed 81.5% to total revenue, while Precast and Prefabrication grew by 87.1% in FY2024.
• Soilbuild Construction generated S$35.9 million in operating cash flow in FY2024, improving liquidity for ongoing projects.

• Titan International is a global manufacturer of off-the-road tires, wheels and undercarriages.
• The company serves the agricultural, earthmoving / construction, and consumer markets.
• Long-term secular tailwinds exist in the global agricultural, infrastructure and construction markets.

• Tsubakimoto Kogyo Co., Ltd., (hereafter, the Company) announced its Full-year FY2025/3 results on May 8, 2025.
• The Company achieved record-high orders, sales, and profits across the board, along with a record order backlog.
• Both net sales and all levels of profit exceeded initial forecasts. This is due to conservative assumptions about the pace of reducing its large order backlog.