Macro

In today’s briefing:

BoE Still Seeking Evidence
Copper Crunch Deepens: China’s Inventory Collapse Reshapes Global Market
CX Daily: How Labubu Became a Monster of a Business
Cancellation of Existing Treasury Shares in Korea – Government Likely to Provide a GRACE PERIOD
We’re Off to See the Wizard of Fed
Norway: 25bp Rate Cut To 4.25% (Consensus 4.5%) in Jun-25
Philippines: 25bp Rate Cut to 5.25% (Consensus 5.25%) in Jun-25
SNB: 25bp Rate Cut To 0.0% (Consensus 0.0%) in Jun-25
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 20 June 2025
[ETP 2025/25] WTI Wavers on Israel-Iran Tensions, While Henry Hub Rebounds on Demand Revival

BoE Still Seeking Evidence

Guidance around an unsurprisingly unchanged BoE rate preserved the necessary uncertainty about when it might ease again, albeit with a broad bias to do more later.
Dave Ramsden joined the dovish dissent, taking it to three for a 25bp cut, but none of them are in the MPC majority revealed in May as leaning towards a slower pace of cuts.
We believe the August decision remains finely balanced for the majority. Ongoing data resilience, discouraging the Fed and ECB from easing, should also keep the BoE on hold.

Copper Crunch Deepens: China’s Inventory Collapse Reshapes Global Market

By Rahul Jain

Chinese copper inventories have dropped to 15-year seasonal lows, with SHFE stockpiles plunging 60% in April — the sharpest decline on record.
This signals intense physical market tightness, driven by strong demand and smelter cutbacks.
The trend is reinforcing bullish sentiment, tightening global balances, and spurring strategic moves across the copper supply chain.

CX Daily: How Labubu Became a Monster of a Business

Labubu / In Depth: How Labubu became a monster of a business
Rare earth /: Japan’s business leaders call on China to streamline rare earth export rules as delays hit supply chains
British Columbia /: British Columbia moves to diversify trade to rebalance economy

Cancellation of Existing Treasury Shares in Korea – Government Likely to Provide a GRACE PERIOD

By Douglas Kim

The Korean government may not force the listed companies to suddenly cancel all their treasury shares all at once.
Rather, a GRACE PERIOD is likely to be given for companies with existing treasury shares by which they need to cancel them.
Going forward, the Korean government is likely to decide to allow acquisition new of treasury stocks only when the purpose is to cancel them, excluding bonus payments or stock compensation.

We’re Off to See the Wizard of Fed

By David Mudd

The Fed will remain tethered to the movements in the treasury market regardless of its inflation and employment mandates; otherwise, it risks larger economic problems.
U.S. Treasury yields are expected to rise due to declining demand and surging supply, regardless of the Fed’s policies.
Rising US debt levels are now self-fulfilling as new debt is issued to pay rising interest costs.

Norway: 25bp Rate Cut To 4.25% (Consensus 4.5%) in Jun-25

The Norges Bank unexpectedly reduced its policy rate to 4.25%, defying consensus expectations for a hold, citing a faster-than-anticipated decline in underlying inflation and increased economic slack.
The Committee signalled that, if the economy develops as projected, further gradual rate cuts are likely in 2025, but emphasised that policy will remain restrictive until inflation is sustainably on target.
Future rate decisions will be highly data-dependent, with the Committee closely monitoring domestic wage and price dynamics, labour market conditions, and external risks such as geopolitical tensions and global trade policy uncertainty.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Philippines: 25bp Rate Cut to 5.25% (Consensus 5.25%) in Jun-25

The Bangko Sentral Ng Pilipinas (BSP) reduced its Target RRP Rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, a move that aligned with consensus forecasts and was prompted by a sharply lower inflation outlook for 2025.
The decision reflects growing concerns over a global economic slowdown, persistent US trade policy uncertainty, and a widening domestic output gap, all of which argue for a more accommodative monetary stance.
Future rate decisions will hinge on inflation dynamics, external policy shifts—especially from the US Federal Reserve—and the effectiveness of monetary easing in supporting domestic growth without compromising price stability

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

SNB: 25bp Rate Cut To 0.0% (Consensus 0.0%) in Jun-25

The SNB lowered its policy rate to 0% as expected, responding to declining inflation and subdued price pressures, with the latest forecasts indicating inflation will remain well within the price stability range through 2027.
The SNB’s guidance remains cautious, highlighting global trade tensions, external risks, and persistent uncertainties as key factors shaping the interest rate outlook.
Future policy decisions will be data-driven, with the SNB prepared to adjust rates further or intervene in currency markets if inflation deviates from target or if external shocks intensify.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 20 June 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

US interest rate cuts expected soon as economic data deteriorates across sectors.
Indonesia delays rate cuts; Philippines eases but risks peso weakness.
China retail sales rise, but property sector continues to underperform.

[ETP 2025/25] WTI Wavers on Israel-Iran Tensions, While Henry Hub Rebounds on Demand Revival

For the week ending 13/Jun, U.S. crude inventories fell by 11.5m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2.3m barrel decline). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose.
The EIA reported a 95 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted a 96 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 6.1% above the five-year average but 7.7% below year-ago levels.
Bernstein downgrades Shell and upgrades Aramco. Meanwhile, Chevron makes a pivot into U.S. lithium production.

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Jun 19

Daily Brief Macro: UK Course-Corrected CPI Stays High and more

In today’s briefing:

UK Course-Corrected CPI Stays High
EA Inflation Predictably Near The Target
[IO Fundamentals 2025/24] Retail Revival Vs. Real Estate Rut: Uneven China Recovery Tempers Outlook
Tire Trade At Tipping Point After US Q1 Import Shifts
Sweden: 25bp Rate Cut To 2% (Consensus 2%) in Jun-25
Luxembourg Economy – June 4, 2025
Indonesia: Policy Rate Held At 5.5% (Consensus 5.5%) in Jun-25
CX Daily: As China Pursues Carbon Goals, Coal Heartland Faces Uphill Struggle
Sideways Trend for BDI

UK Course-Corrected CPI Stays High

UK inflation unsurprisingly slowed in May as a correction to vehicle excise duty knocked 0.1pp from the rate, reversing all the upside to our above-consensus April forecast.
Services inflation aligns with the BoE’s forecast from its May forecast, where MPC members were biased towards slowing their easing. Underlying rates remain too high.
Inflation keeps trending above the consensus, cumulating a 1pp error since rate cuts began, but aligning with our forecast from 1yr and 2yrs ago. We remain hawkish.

EA Inflation Predictably Near The Target

Disinflationary news from May’s flash inflation release was confirmed in the final print, although a rebound in some underlying inflation measures damped the initial signal.
Resurgent oil prices could rapidly reverse the dovish space expanded by past falls. Our forecast bumps around the target through 2026 and 2027, settling at 2%.
Other forecasts are a little lower and only suffer a slight bias to be exceeded. The ECB can remain reassured by an outlook close to 2% without cuts, and not deliver any more.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/24] Retail Revival Vs. Real Estate Rut: Uneven China Recovery Tempers Outlook

By Umang Agrawal

China’s May retail sales surged 6.4% YoY, driven by holiday spending and trade-in programs, though fading property prices may dampen future consumer sentiment.
China’s new home prices fell 3.5% YoY in May, marking a 23-month decline streak, though policy support shows signs of easing the prolonged property downturn.
Iron ore port inventories rose in mid-June as weaker steel margins cut pig iron output, reducing pick-up volumes and softening near-term demand despite steady arrivals.

Tire Trade At Tipping Point After US Q1 Import Shifts

Truck tire imports from Thailand fell 41% YoY in Jan-Feb 2025
Q1 2025 tire imports rise 3–4% year-on-year
Vietnam, Japan, Cambodia gain as China, Thailand falter

Sweden: 25bp Rate Cut To 2% (Consensus 2%) in Jun-25

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2%, in line with consensus expectations, citing weaker economic growth and a subdued inflation outlook.
The decision reflects persistent uncertainty in both domestic demand and the global environment, with the central bank signalling a non-trivial probability of further easing should inflation remain below target and recovery falter.
Future policy decisions will be highly data-dependent, with particular attention to inflation dynamics, labour market conditions, and the impact of ongoing geopolitical and trade-related risks.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Luxembourg Economy – June 4, 2025

IMF’s projections regarding Luxembourg’s Economy suggest growth rates for the Real GDP of 1.03%, 1.58% and 2.21% in the years 2024-2026, rebounding from the slight contraction of 0.69% in 2023.
In contrast, the Real GDP per Capita is expected to decline and reach approximately 94 thousand Euros in the next years, a noticeable decline from the 100 thousand GDP per Capita recorded in 2021.
Investments are expected to stay relatively stable as a percentage of the GDP, around 14-15%.

Indonesia: Policy Rate Held At 5.5% (Consensus 5.5%) in Jun-25

Bank Indonesia maintained the BI-Rate at 5.50% in June 2025, in line with consensus expectations, citing stable inflation and a resilient rupiah as key factors.
The decision reflects a cautious approach amid persistent global uncertainties, with BI emphasising the need to preserve macroeconomic stability while supporting growth through accommodative macroprudential and payment system policies.
The interest rate outlook remains data-dependent, with the central bank signalling potential for further easing if inflation and currency stability persist, but maintaining a prudent stance given external risks and the need to attract foreign capital.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

CX Daily: As China Pursues Carbon Goals, Coal Heartland Faces Uphill Struggle

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Coal / In Depth: As China pursues carbon goals, coal heartland faces uphill struggle
Data /Analysis: Why China faces growth slowdown despite strong consumption
Ant /: Ant International’s first sustainability report reveals extent of global expansion and fuels IPO speculation

Sideways Trend for BDI

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI)* settled at around ~1,340.00 points (USD) on May 23rd – 26th, 2025 versus ~1,424.00 points (USD) on March 11th, 2025, which was the release date of our previous blog and vis-à-vis ~1,354.00 points (USD) in the beginning of December 2024.
During the year 2024, BDI traded within the broader range of 1,000 – 2,500 with continuous notable swings along a relatively downward trend line.
Our previous blog, in March 2025 with the Index standing at ~1,424.00, was reading as follows: “… In the past 3 months, the BDI traded mostly along the lower half, i.e. 1,000-1,500, of the historic average trading range of 1,000-2,000 amid increasing volatility.

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Jun 18

Daily Brief Macro: US/China: Sprint vs Stamina and more

In today’s briefing:

US/China: Sprint vs Stamina
Steno Signals #201 – The Mullahs Are Toast – Re-Inflation Is Back!
China – Where To Invest?
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 16 June
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/24] Henry Hub Slips on Tepid Demand and Subdued Export Flows
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/24] WTI Surged on Mideast Tensions and U.S.-China Trade Optimism
CX Daily: Chinese Biotech Is Having a ‘DeepSeek Moment’
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 16 June
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 16 June
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 16 June

US/China: Sprint vs Stamina

By Alastair Newton

The recent US/China trade talks highlighted Beijing’s superior leverage and determination.
Beijing is in a stronger position in terms of both leverage and willingness to persist.
Avoiding a re-escalation after the current 90-day truce relies on Washington making more concessions.

Steno Signals #201 – The Mullahs Are Toast – Re-Inflation Is Back!

By Andreas Steno

Happy Monday from Copenhagen.
What a comeback by JJ Spaun at Oakmont yesterday (sorry to the non-golfers), and what a comeback risk is about to make this week.
Iran’s mullah-tocracy is on the brink, and it could be a catalyst for a big bounce in risk appetite.

China – Where To Invest?

Overweight AI, high tech, robotics, renewables and bio-tech. Underweight on consumer discretionary, property and export cyclicals.
China has become even more vital to its green transition. At the same time the shift in government mindset means that domestic innovation is advancing at a breathtaking pace.
That said the economy is yet bottom. The profit cycle downturn is worsening; As of April 30% of manufacturing companies were loss making, up from 25% in November

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 16 June

Global base oils margins fall as feedstock/competing fuel prices surge.
Sharp fall in base oils margins reflect impact of higher crude/diesel prices rather than any sudden change in base oils supply-demand fundamentals.
Fall in base oils margins comes at a time of year when supply-demand fundamentals are already starting to face downward pressure.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/24] Henry Hub Slips on Tepid Demand and Subdued Export Flows

For the week ending 13/Jun, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 5.4% on the back of mild near-term demand, softening LNG exports, and rising storage levels.
For the week ending 06/Jun, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 109 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 108 Bcf build.
Henry Hub OI PCR inched up by 0.86 on 13/Jun compared to 0.85 on 06/Jun. Call OI increased by 4.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 5.5%.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/24] WTI Surged on Mideast Tensions and U.S.-China Trade Optimism

WTI futures surged by 13% for the week ending 13/Jun on the back of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
The U.S. rig count fell by four to 555. The oil rig count fell by three to 439, while gas rigs inched down by one to 113.
WTI OI PCR grew to 0.89 on 13/Jun compared to 0.83 on 06/Jun. Call OI rose by 5.9% WoW, while put OI grew by 14.5%.

CX Daily: Chinese Biotech Is Having a ‘DeepSeek Moment’

Drugs / Cover Story: Chinese biotech is having a ‘deepseek moment’
Hong Kong /: Hong Kong bets on stablecoins and AI to future-proof its financial edge
Home appliances /Analysis: New U.S. tariffs mean tough times ahead for appliance-makers

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 16 June

US Group III 4cSt base oils price rises in June to highest level in almost nine months.
US Group III 4cSt price rises relative to Group II base oils, relative to feedstock prices and relative to other regions.
US Group III price-strength coincides with tighter global Group III supply-demand fundamentals and growing number of signals reflecting those tighter fundamentals.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 16 June

US base oils margins fall as crude and heating oil prices surge.
Margins had previously been trending lower slowly.
Steady-to-lower margins coincided with muted domestic demand and improving supply fundamentals following completion of most plant maintenance work.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 16 June

US base oils demand could get support from expectations of steady-to-higher prices following surge in crude oil prices.
Weakening supply-demand fundamentals previously put pressure on adjustment in base oils prices to reflect that dynamic.
Concern about exposure to lower prices incentivized buyers to limit their procurement plans.

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Jun 17

Daily Brief Macro: Euro Area Wage Costs Closer To Target and more

In today’s briefing:

Euro Area Wage Costs Closer To Target
Helixtap China Report: China Rubber Market Faces Continued Headwinds
China Trip: Selective Buying
The Drill Extra – Israel strikes Iran
Asian Equities: Below the Headline Numbers, the Earnings Environment Is Improving
Oil Prices Rise as Israel Attacks Iran’s Nuclear Facilities – What We Do
Real Asset Chartbook Week #11: Digging Deeper into the Charts
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 16 June

Euro Area Wage Costs Closer To Target

Non-wage labour costs rebounded in Q1, damping the overall slowdown to a surprisingly modest extent after the crash in negotiated wage growth revealed in May.
Unit labour cost growth has encouragingly slowed below 3%, with the latest impulse only 0.6% q-o-q. Any further easing here could encourage monetary easing to resume.
Stability at a low unemployment rate still suggests the policy setting is close to neutral, so we doubt disinflationary pressures will mount further and forecast no more rate cuts.

Helixtap China Report: China Rubber Market Faces Continued Headwinds

By Arusha Das

Physical-to-INE spreads indicate sluggish near-term demand
Rising availability and tepid downstream suggests prices may remain under pressure
April’s import and export data highlights the caution in the market

China Trip: Selective Buying

Overall neutral but overweight AI, high tech, robotics, renewables and bio-tech.
Trading Post is just back from China – two intensive weeks on the ground, meeting with companies and government across provinces.
Three takeaways. First, China is back in business. Second, geopolitics and Trump’s trade war are re-shaping alliances. Third, innovation knows no boundaries.

The Drill Extra – Israel strikes Iran

By Mikkel Rosenvold

We have another round of Israeli strikes on Iran just as we have seen repeatedly since October 7^th and the beginning of the Gaza war.
This time, Israel targeted nuclear and missile installations as well as the very top of the Iranian military and intelligence leadership. The attacks were hugely successful, likely severely limiting Iranian response capabilities.
So far, Iran has ‘only’ responded with smaller waves of drones, which the US and UK are helping Israel to shoot down.

Asian Equities: Below the Headline Numbers, the Earnings Environment Is Improving

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

Headline Asia-ex-Japan EPS estimates have declined over the past 3 and 6 months, dragged down by China, India and Thailand and supported by Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Philippines.
Looking at earnings estimate trajectories of 100 Asian market-sector combinations, we identify 16 market-sectors with upward revisions over past 3 and 6 months. A month ago, we could spot eight.
Korean and Taiwanese Technology and industrials, Hong Kong Technology Services and ASEAN Financials figure prominently among the sectors with robust and sustainable EPS estimate recovery.

Oil Prices Rise as Israel Attacks Iran’s Nuclear Facilities – What We Do

By The Commodity Report

YTD our absolute return strategy is up 12,0% Oil Prices Rise as Israel Attacks Iran’s Nuclear Facilities – What We Do Friday was marked by panic buying safe haven assets.
Gold and Crude went up, risk assets went down. We’re now in a time of mass geopolitical uncertainty and related volatility.
Therefore we think it is important to keep a cool head in such situations and don’t let headlines and breaking news change investment behavior.

Real Asset Chartbook Week #11: Digging Deeper into the Charts

By Massif Capital Research

We will be very interested in what happens to the number of traders on the short side. With futures, small moves are magnified by leverage; as such, a significant move, like we are seeing today, is likely to have blown through various stop-out levels for traders.
In volatile markets, stops become self-fulfilling prophecies – tight clustering near technical levels turns minor rallies into cascading short squeezes. We expect that number of shorts to continue to fall.
If geopolitics is causing moves in the markets, we have to take a look at gold:

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 16 June

Asia’s base oils demand could get support from surge in crude oil prices and concerns about disruptions to supply in Middle East.
A sustained rise in crude oil prices would squeeze base oils margins.
Lower margins could curb downward pressure on prices.

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Jun 16

Daily Brief Macro: US Corporate Profits Expectations Remain Resolute Despite Tariff Uncertainties and more

In today’s briefing:

US Corporate Profits Expectations Remain Resolute Despite Tariff Uncertainties
A Preview of the Trump Fed
How to Capitalize on Narrative Volatility

US Corporate Profits Expectations Remain Resolute Despite Tariff Uncertainties

By Said Desaque

US equities have displayed remarkable resilience since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, notably without any promise of immediate help from the Fed via policy easing.
Although expected S&P500 EPS growth has been lowered for 2025, estimates for 2026 remain resolute, despite ongoing uncertainty about final tariff outcomes. Maintaining respectable productivity growth will be crucial.
The arrival of tariffs complicates the future business strategies of firms due to varying degrees of market competition and the unknown response of consumers to price increases.

A Preview of the Trump Fed

By Cam Hui

The Fed remains on hold and in wait-and-see mode as it assesses the inflationary tariffs against the backdrop of a weakening labour market.
The market is discounting two quarter-point rate cuts in 2025 and a rapid pace of cuts in 2026.
Future Fed policy will depend on how the market perceives the new Fed Chair’s affects the Fed’s inflation fighting credibility.

How to Capitalize on Narrative Volatility

By Cam Hui

The current market environment is characterized by high market volatility, which has manifested itself as narrative volatility.
We offer four ways to capitalize on the short-term volatility for traders.
The suggested trades are the combination of identifiable underlying trends and technical breaks as signals for short-term profit.

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Jun 14

Daily Brief Macro: HEW: Geopolitics Blow Hot And Warm and more

In today’s briefing:

HEW: Geopolitics Blow Hot And Warm
[IO Technicals 2025/24] Downward Momentum Lingers
Korea Politics: Presidential Election Closes Chapter of Chaos
EU Opens Tire Duty Probe Against China, Straining Trade Environs
Flash – Middle East FX, June 13th 2025 ,

HEW: Geopolitics Blow Hot And Warm

Israel’s attack on Iran squeezes supply in an unwelcome shock that is harder for central bankers to look through post-pandemic. Warming US-China relations had less impact.
Avoidance measures have helped mitigate the tariff shock so far, with US CPI holding steady. The importance of recent disappointing UK demand data is easy to overstate.
The BoE is set to hold rates, probably with two dovish dissents and no commitment to August. UK inflation should slow with airfares normalising and a vehicle tax correction.

[IO Technicals 2025/24] Downward Momentum Lingers

By Umang Agrawal

The U.S. will impose a 55% tariff on Chinese goods; China responds with 10%, as part of a deal addressing trade and fentanyl concerns.
China’s steelmakers face pressure as EV price wars cut margins. Platts to lower iron ore spec to 61% in 2026, prompting SGX contract adjustments.
Prices hold below key moving averages, reflecting downside momentum, while the MACD staying under its signal line supports the ongoing bearish outlook.

Korea Politics: Presidential Election Closes Chapter of Chaos

By Manu Bhaskaran

Democratic Party nominee Lee Jae-myung won the snap presidential elections triggered by the impeachment of his predecessor, closing a period of governmental instability.
With unified control of the executive and legislature, Lee will have leeway to pursue looser fiscal policy and some structural reform. But bandwidth is limited by external events.
Even if policy shifts are constrained, some political calm will do the country much good as it navigates its structural economic challenges and geopolitical quandary.

EU Opens Tire Duty Probe Against China, Straining Trade Environs

Investigation covers HS codes 40111000 and 40112010
China criticizes EU protectionism, warns of market impact
EU tire makers to benefit but consumers may feel the pinch

Flash – Middle East FX, June 13th 2025 ,

By Denis Collot

A short word ! Get your priority right ! or go to the easiest ! European large cities, London, Paris are all getting a pretty bad rap in term of security.
London is a place I know well and much better than Paris.
I commented at length on personal safety, phone theft, bicycle theft, car theft etc.

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Jun 13

Daily Brief Macro: UK: Retreating To Trend Again and more

In today’s briefing:

UK: Retreating To Trend Again
US Treasuries: YOU BREAK IT YOU BOUGHT IT!
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Industrial Activity
[ETP 2025/24] WTI Rises on Trade Hopes, Geopolitics; Henry Hub Slips on Weak Near-Term Outlook
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 13 June 2025
Middle East FX, June 12th 2025

UK: Retreating To Trend Again

Residual seasonality shocked the consensus again, this time on the downside, as the spurious surge is replaced with stagnation for the rest of the year in our view.
The 0.3% m-o-m decline dragged GDP back toward its trend, wiping out the highly supportive statistical carryover effect for Q2, which we now forecast at 0.1% q-o-q.
BoE forecasts are on track, allowing the MPC’s bias to slow easing to materialise with a pause. We expect cuts to keep being rolled later, with no more delivered in this cycle.

US Treasuries: YOU BREAK IT YOU BOUGHT IT!

By David Mudd

The US Administration is undermining foreign demand for dollar assets at the same time, supply for US treasury debt is rapidly expanding.
The Fed is constrained from lowering the Fed Funds rate due to rising yields in the long end of the treasury market.
The long end of the US Treasury market is feeling the effects of Trump’s tariff policies. The US equity market will follow as risk premiums rise.

Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Industrial Activity

By Actinver

Industrial activity advanced 0.1% MoM in a mixed report.
Notably, manufacturing showed resilience, with growth recorded in nearly all industries.
The observed figure came in below our estimate of 0.4% MoM and was in line with market consensus.

[ETP 2025/24] WTI Rises on Trade Hopes, Geopolitics; Henry Hub Slips on Weak Near-Term Outlook

For the week ending 06/Jun, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.6m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2.4m barrel decline). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
The EIA reported a 109 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted a 108 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 5.4% above the five-year average but 8.6% below year-ago levels.
Shell targets 12 MMT of new LNG capacity by 2030, while TotalEnergies partners with Mistral AI to enhance its low-carbon, multi-energy strategy using artificial intelligence.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 13 June 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

India cuts interest rates as currency pressure eases, aiming to boost private investment without triggering inflation concerns.
China’s exports rise overall despite a sharp drop to the US, showing strength through trade diversification.
Regional trade flows shift sharply, with Taiwan and Vietnam surging ahead of potential tariffs, while uncertainty clouds second-half investment outlook.

Middle East FX, June 12th 2025

By Denis Collot

Since retaking the White House , President Trump and his former chum have been busy gutting any kind of independent agencies in charge of oversight.
Not a good time to be a whistle blower, you are on your own. One we mentioned before, the PCAOB : Public Company Accounting Oversight Board.
It was created in 2002 to oversee accounting professionals and auditing companies in the wake of the Enron and WorldCom’s scandals.

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Jun 12

Daily Brief Macro: US Consumer Pricing Still Ignores Tariffs and more

In today’s briefing:

US Consumer Pricing Still Ignores Tariffs
[IO Fundamentals 2025/23] Deflation Concerns and Declining Portside Inventories
Cambodian Tire Sector Propels Domestic Rubber Amid Price Rally
CX Daily: Chinese Exporters Pivot to Domestic Consumers in Trade War Hedge

US Consumer Pricing Still Ignores Tariffs

Another downside surprise in headline US inflation reflected the lack of pass-through from tariff increases, with headline and core rates of only 0.1% m-o-m in May.
Commodities, less food, energy and car prices stalled as airfares and apparel fell again. But services (ex-shelter) inflation stayed too high to be consistent with the target.
Low headline rates raise dovish political pressure and the risk of a cut, but the tight labour market should encourage the Fed to keep rolling potential cuts later.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/23] Deflation Concerns and Declining Portside Inventories

By Umang Agrawal

China’s CPI plunged 0.1% YoY in May-25, while producer prices declined by 3.3% driven by softening domestic demand and US tariff tensions.
China’s iron ore imports declined due to seasonal factors and early clearances, while strong steel exports may pressure prices amid front-loaded global supply.
Iron ore portside inventories fell further in early June, but weakening demand and slower pick-up volumes may soon reverse the trend and pressure prices.

Cambodian Tire Sector Propels Domestic Rubber Amid Price Rally

Rubber exports fetch US$148 million despite volume decline
Two big tire factories bring $335 million investment
Local tire demand is reshaping rubber supply priorities

CX Daily: Chinese Exporters Pivot to Domestic Consumers in Trade War Hedge

TOP STORIES Tariff / In Depth: Chinese exporters pivot to domestic consumers in trade war hedge
The recent 90-day truce in the U.S.-China tariff war has prompted a flurry of activity among Chinese exporters, with traders rushing to ship goods overseas before tensions escalate again.
But at the same time a major shift is underway among exporters — many are now trying to sell those same goods at home, as they scramble to hedge their bets against future global instability.

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Jun 11

Daily Brief Macro: UK: Some Workshy Start Looking and more

In today’s briefing:

UK: Some Workshy Start Looking
Assessing Potential US Inflation Risks
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation (2h-May)
CX Daily: Degrees of Uncertainty Make Chinese Students Rethink the Benefits of a U.S. Education
Egypt – Higher Inflation, Net Foreign Assets Fall Back, PMI Higher but Still Below 50!

UK: Some Workshy Start Looking

A broadly softer labour market report could easily be used to overstate the fundamental significance. Unemployment’s rise was expected and only 0.2pp on the year.
Employment is growing and redundancies are low, but when the inactive look for work, long-term unemployment rises. Yet the workshy will struggle to compete for jobs.
Wage growth slowed despite a 0.5% m-o-m impulse. Costs are rising excessively fast, so the BoE still doesn’t have space to keep easing, and we expect no more rate cuts.

Assessing Potential US Inflation Risks

Trading Post is not forecasting a resurgence in inflation. Any tariff induced pick will be transitory.
If there is an upside risk – its the weakness of the US dollar.
Global food prices are elevated but not worryingly so while commodity prices led by energy are soft.

Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation (2h-May)

By Actinver

Inflation for the second half of May stood at 0.19% biweekly (4.62% YoY).
Agricultural products showed widespread price pressures, and the Hot Sale discounts did not materialize to the anticipated extent.
The observed figure came in above market consensus of 0.11% biweekly and above our estimate of 0.15% biweekly.

CX Daily: Degrees of Uncertainty Make Chinese Students Rethink the Benefits of a U.S. Education

Cover Story: Degrees of uncertainty make Chinese students rethink the benefits of a U.S. education
In Depth: How guardians can support China’s swelling ranks of solo seniors
Vietnam attracts global manufacturers despite U.S. tariff increases

Egypt – Higher Inflation, Net Foreign Assets Fall Back, PMI Higher but Still Below 50!

By Denis Collot

Media, investigative journalists, bloggers .. We hear a lot those days about the death of traditional media, networks, newspapers.
Mainstream in the eyes of many has lost all credibility. Like experts of all kinds. Now info channel is X!
There are still a few though who make it a mission to dig deep and report.

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Jun 10

Daily Brief Macro: Trade Avoidance Easing Shocks and more

In today’s briefing:

Trade Avoidance Easing Shocks
Risk-On Mood Continues Setting an Upbeat Tone for Japan SPE (Again)
India Steel Monitor – May 2025: Prices Fall, Demand Weak, Outlook Diverges
FY 2025 Marks Shrinking Margins For Indian Tire Majors
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/23] WTI Rebounded on Supply Risks and Trade Optimism
Inflation Concerns Overdone
Drought & Planting Update
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/23] Henry Hub Surged on Bullish Summer Demand Outlook
Bearishness Persist in Soybeans Despite Rebound Hopes
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation Forecast (2h-May)

Trade Avoidance Easing Shocks

China’s crashing exports to the US partly reflect avoidance measures, including rerouting through other countries and marking down import prices to subsidiaries.
Exports to the EU and UK are only trending slightly higher, making little difference to disinflation. ASEAN countries, and especially Vietnam, are seeing trade surge again.
The US may clamp down on avoidance measures that have eased the shock so far. It could make a painful example of one to encourage concessions from all trade partners.

Risk-On Mood Continues Setting an Upbeat Tone for Japan SPE (Again)

By Andrew Jackson

Apple WWDC failing to excite, but suppliers trade better on iPad software revamp news
Bullish broker comments focused on Sandisk’s cheap valuation should help the even cheaper Kioxia
Less known Nomura Micro Science running +7.2% yesterday as a play on the burgeoning Indian semi-industry

India Steel Monitor – May 2025: Prices Fall, Demand Weak, Outlook Diverges

By Rahul Jain

Steel prices declined for 5 straight weeks; long products like rebar and wire rod saw the steepest fall amid weak spot market sentiment.
Companies expect higher Q1 FY26 realizations, but spot trends remain weak, highlighting a lag between optimism and transactional reality.
Auto and housing demand is softening; only two-wheelers, EVs, and commercial real estate offer near-term support to steel consumption.

FY 2025 Marks Shrinking Margins For Indian Tire Majors

MRF stages recovery in margin in Q4, others suffer
CEAT breaches US$1.51 billion for the first time in revenue in FY25
High raw material costs eat into profits of majors

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/23] WTI Rebounded on Supply Risks and Trade Optimism

WTI futures rose 6.2% for the week ending 06/Jun, as supply disruption fears and U.S.-China trade optimism outweighed concerns over the OPEC+ output hike.
The U.S. rig count fell by four to 559. The oil rig count fell by nine to 442, while gas rigs grew by five to 114.
WTI OI PCR remained at 0.83 on 06/Jun compared to 30/May. Call OI rose by 4.1% WoW, while put OI grew by 3.9%.

Inflation Concerns Overdone

For Trading Post a global recession has never been on the cards, nor a resurgence in inflation.
If mainstream economists continue to raise alarms about a tariff induced inflation surge, it reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of how inflation works and what drives it.
Current trends in broad money growth, credit cycles and monetary policy settings simply don’t support the prevailing inflation narrative.

Drought & Planting Update

By The Commodity Report

Corn crop looks good but slightly worse than 2024
Spring Wheat is looking okayish, but conditions are worse than during the three previous years
Soybean conditions aren’t that visible yet, but analysts expect solid to good conditions at the moment

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/23] Henry Hub Surged on Bullish Summer Demand Outlook