Macro

• Strong US and UK PMIs boosted the US economy, however, low CPI hindered the bullish effect on the BoE. The UK government manipulated its Spring Statement to adhere to its rules, resulting in increased issuance due to slippage.
• Next week’s flash EA inflation is expected to be low, with impending US tariff announcements causing concern.
• The most significant monetary policy announcement is expected from the RBA, with numerous other speeches and US payrolls data set to influence expectations.

• For the week ending 21/Mar, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.3m barrels (vs. expectations of 1.5m build), gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell less than expected.
• US natural gas inventories rose by 37 Bcf for the week ending 21/Mar, in line with analyst expectations. Inventories are 6.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.
• Shell to boost shareholder distributions to 40-50% of CFFO and cut costs by USD 5-7 billion by 2028. Exxon plans 250 layoffs in the UK by 2026.

• Social workers / In Depth: The social workers helping patients navigate China’s health care system
• Carbon /: Steel, cement and aluminum sectors join China’s carbon trading market
• Robots /: Meet the leading players in China’s humanoid robotic revolution

• The announcement of individual reciprocal tariff rates for US trading patterns on 2 April is a significant event for investors.
• This announcement is part of a drive to re-industrialise America.
• Despite its significance, this could merely represent the initial stages of a prolonged trade war.

• Copper pricing reporter Han Lu, sulfuric acid reporter Ong Jialun, and China content reporter Lucy Tang share insights on copper market trends and trade flows
• China copper concentrates assessments have hit negative levels in 2025 due to tight supply and growing demand from China and India
• Smelters are running at production losses due to low TCRC but continue to buy in the market to meet output targets and maintain production levels

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• Australia: RBA rate decision on 1 April. Expect no change.
• Japan: Nikkei 225 rebalancing effective 31 March at the close.
• US reciprocal tariffs will keep everyone on their toes on 2 April.

• Podcast delayed, markets rebounded last week, led by news of reduced impact of Trump’s tariffs
• Fed slowed pace of quantitative tightening, reducing pressure on treasury market liquidity
• Bitcoin and gold prices fluctuate, Chinese stocks rebound, DAX up 20% year to date, US equities impacted by tariffs and job losses

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• This is a quick note with the results of Real Estate Foresight’s annual ‘Draw the Line’ survey, which focused on China’s new home sales for 2025
• Responses concentrate in the -5% to -10% range but vary from -20% to +20%, vs -14% actual for 2024
• Jan-Feb 2025 actual figure published mid-March by NBS shows an improvement from -14% to -12% (12 months rolling vs prior 12 months)

• Confidence among consumers in China’s large and midsize cities is returning and willingness to spend is increasing, with more people feeling financially better off and expecting higher incomes this year, a new survey shows, suggesting government stimulus measures that started in September are having an impact.
• However, while attitudes on income and spending have improved, more survey respondents said prices have been rising over the past few months and sentiment toward the property market remains weak, according to the latest quarterly survey of consumers by German investment bank Deutsche Bank AG.
• The survey was conducted during the first quarter among individuals aged 18 to 65 in first- and second-tier cities.

• The Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4.5%, consistent with expectations, as inflation accelerated to 3.6% in February, well above prior forecasts, prompting delays in the signalled rate cuts.
• Strong wage growth, broad-based price pressures, and resilient domestic activity led the Committee to judge that a restrictive policy stance remains warranted for longer.
• The policy rate is now projected to fall to 4.0% by year-end, but heightened uncertainty around inflation and global trade developments will shape the timing and extent of future easing.

• Shipping /In Depth: U.S. targets Chinese shipping to ‘resurrect’ domestic industry
• Social workers /In Depth: The social workers helping patients navigate China’s health care system
• Tesla /: Tesla’s Full Self-Driving trial in China delayed by regulatory checks

• Rubber worth US$341 million exported in January 2025
• Companies initiate moves to cash in on higher rubber prices
• Tariff war may come to Vietnam’s advantage

• US recession risks persist despite no immediate red flags, with soft economic data and potential weakness in services if government spending cuts materialize.

• Japan’s economy remains stagnant, with weak consumption, declining business investment, and diminishing benefits from a weaker Yen.

• China shows early signs of recovery, with industrial profits stabilizing after last year’s declines, while India’s rate cuts could provide further market support.

• UK CPI inflation slowed by 15bps to 2.84%, rounding slightly under expectations. The services rate was surprisingly resilient, and January’s upside news broadly persisted.
• Downside news from clothing and core goods prices occurred because January sales extended broadly and unusually. Postponed Spring lines should drive a March rebound.
• Headline inflation outcomes are benign enough not to threaten the BoE’s likely cut in May, but ongoing resilience still makes that the final move in our forecast.

• Attempts to recreate fiscal headroom after slippage rely on implausible and optimistic assumptions. Further tax rises and delayed prudence are likely in the Autumn budget.
• Replacing aid resources with capital defence spending helps loosen fiscal policy inside the budgetary rules. Policy changes are relatively neutral over the next few years.
• Without corrective action, the gross financing requirement path is £18bn a year higher than in the Autumn, and almost £50bn higher than last Spring, burdening gilt issuance.

• US$127 million tire recycling plant coming up in Sunderland
• TRA calls for immediate action to end the T8 exemption
• ATMA’s stress to rein in ELT imports comes as wakeup call for UK

• Greetings from Copenhagen, and welcome back to our weekly editorial on everything macro and markets.
• The tariff headlines are back in a more digestive fashion as the broad tariff scare seen over the past couple of weeks have been more or less cooled down by US officials late last week and over the weekend, which is very benign news for a market who feared that tariffs would hit right around everyone around the globe, which is the reason why businesses, households and consumers have changed behaviour and delivered a US growth scare over the past month – and it will likely continue going into April as trends currently persist rather than turn.
• The tariff campaign will hence be a lot more targeted than previously communicated, which is probably what most people expected initially (until Trump went rogue), with the reciprocal part of the tariffs being a race to the bottom and vice versa – which evidently looks to be the case now.

• We analyze FIIs’ and DIIs’ buying/selling trend across sectors and their sector-wise stances relative to benchmarks to assess which sectors they would buy or sell in the near term.
• FIIs and DIIs have bought consumer discretionary and healthcare secularly. They recently started buying financials and IT, after prolonged selling.  They’ve also secularly bought industrials, barring the last two quarters.
• We conclude that both FIIs and DIIs shall continue to buy financials, industrials and consumer discretionary. They would also buy healthcare and sell materials, energy, IT and consumer staples.

• Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything geopolitics- and commodities! We are approaching the “Liberation Day” on Apr 2 where we will (hopefully) get more clarity around the tariffs plans from Trump.
• We have recently seen a semi-u-turn from the Trump administration on the severity and depth of the reciprocal tariffs announced next week, and the base-case is a softer stance with some negotiated exemptions for big partners.
• This is also exactly what paves the way for a very decent comeback in US risk assets now, something that we expect to continue into April when the softened USD and slightly lower USD bond yields start feeding through via easier financial conditions.

• SCF /In Depth: Taming the Wild West of China’s supply chain finance
• EVs /Chinese EV maker Neta on brink of collapse as $600 million funding round falls through
• BYD tops Tesla: Chinese electric-vehicle (EV) giant BYD Co. Ltd. is on a roll, overtaking U.S. rival Tesla Inc. with revenue of 777 billion yuan ($107 billion) in 2024. 

• We are overweight US equities and forecast one 25bp rate cut in 2025. Bias is towards growth and momentum stocks – industrials, tech hardware, banks and traditional energy.
• US inflation is picking up but won’t spike upwards, even with US import tariffs  rates rising.
• While recent macro data have been weak, the business cycle is intact and talk of a recession overblown. The on-going stock market correct is an opportunity to buy on dip.

• US recession chatter is back. During past recessions, US declined less than Asia. Within Asia, select consumer staples, telecommunication, energy outperformed. Surprisingly, so did Korea and Taiwan tech, HK industrials.
• Asian equity drawdown was driven more by valuation derating than by earnings decline. During every US recession, all Asian currencies depreciated and FIIs sold almost all Asian markets. 
• In the event of a US recession, we think Asia would outperform US. We like attractively valued domestic-focused sectors and stocks, unless a globally linked stock is egregiously undervalued.

• Washington’s apparent disengagement from its European partners is troubling Asian governments who are rethinking their own foreign policy and security strategies.
• So far, the region has not been targeted by the US administration. But their persistent trade surpluses and security arrangements expose them to potentially aggressive measures.
• Domestically, political stability has deteriorated in Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia, distracting governments from providing effective leadership in a riskier world.

• EM sustainable debt universe is now $1.4 trillion, making up 14% of EM hard currency bond stock and 3% of EM local currency debt stock
• Use of proceeds bonds are the largest part of the sustainable debt asset class, with green bonds dominating at 59% of the outstanding notional
• EM corporate sustainable bonds have seen significant growth, with the stock of bonds increasing by over 40 billion to 360 billion in the past year, driven by strong issuance trends and a diversifying issuer base across regions, sectors, and countries

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• Overweight German  value and quality stocks with a sector bias towards consumer staples, tech hardware and defence. Avoid industrials and stay focussed on consumer related stocks.
• New chancellor Mertz is under pressure to revitalise the economy and restore competitiveness to corporates. 
• His Agenda 2030 proposal to cut tax rates, reduce red-tape and deregulating together with a raising of the debt break would turnaround the economy. Expect Mertz to deliver on both.

• US base oils demand likely to get support from seasonal pick-up in requirements that coincides with round of plant maintenance work.
• Mostly-steady outright base oils prices so far this year contrast with higher prices in other markets.
• Steady export base oils values vs VGO so far this year contrast with slump, then surge in base oils values from H2 March 2024.

• Asia’s base oils demand could hold steady even with high heavy-grade prices and seasonal slowdown in consumption at start of Q2 2025.
• Asia’s lube demand likely to peak in month of March, before holding at lower levels over following months.
• Lube demand in Q2 2025 likely to remain well above levels in Q1 2025 even with slowdown at start of Q2 2025.

• US base oils prices hold steady versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.
• Base oils margins hold in narrow range even as wave of plant maintenance work in North America coincides with seasonal rise in demand.
• Any tightening of supply fundamentals would typically first impact spot shipments for export markets.

• Global base oils prices mostly weaken vs higher feedstock/competing fuel prices.
• Lower prices of light-grade base oils relative to heavy-neutrals leave those supplies more exposed to impact of higher feedstock costs at a time when demand faces seasonal rise.
• FOB Asia base oils prices fall vs Singapore gasoil.

• Asia’s heavy-grade base oils prices stay high versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.
• High margins point to tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing refiners to maintain or raise output.
• Light-grade base oils prices stay low vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, cutting incentive for refiners to raise output.

• Robots / Cover Story: Humanoid robots are poised to march into the real world
• Tariffs /Analysis: Who will bear the brunt of Trump’s tariffs?
• Fiscal /China’s finance minister vows to speed up fiscal stimulus

• The Fed, Bank of England, and BOJ all left rates unchanged with their own unique perspectives
• Market volatility continues with equities bouncing and the dollar rebounding
• Fed Chair Powell emphasized keeping options open and uncertainty in the economy, with no immediate rate cuts expected

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• A resurgence in the US and UK services PMIs seems inconsistent with renewed dovish pricing that assumes activity weakness. Vibes may be throwing surveys beyond reality.
• Labour demand growth seems to be trending close to supply, signalling monetary conditions close to neutral. That is broadly the story across a broad basket of countries.
• We still believe rate pricing is too dovish for the Fed and, to a lesser extent, the BoE. Noisy survey vibes and spurious assumptions of tightness are likely to be misleading.

• How should investors react to the increase in policy uncertainty? The latest FOMC statement and subsequent press conference were full of references to “uncertainty”. 
• In the short run, stock prices are rebounding from an oversold condition in response to the sanguine reaction of the credit markets to policy uncertainty.
• Longer term, equity investors have to be prepared for a deterioration in the growth outlook, which is bearish for equities.

• OPEC’s output decision is seen as the most influential factor for the oil market, with prices tumbling and Brent crude trading just above $70
• OPEC shows tolerance to potential economic fallout from tariffs and plans to increase crude oil output starting in April 2025
• Uncertainty remains in the market as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East and President Trump proposes a new Iranian nuclear deal with a two-month deadline, putting pressure on Iran and other countries subject to sanctions

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• Market is seeing an uptick in CNY fixing, potentially halting the DXY bear trend temporarily
• Investors are focused on upcoming tariff event risk on April 2, leading to de-risking behavior
• Various potential scenarios for tariff implementation and FX response, with uncertainty around delivery and impact of tariffs on different sectors and countries

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• For the week ending 21/Mar, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 3% due to milder weather forecasts and larger-than-expected build in the U.S. natural gas inventories.
• Henry Hub dropped by 6.4% on 20/Mar (Thu) after the EIA reported a 9 Bcf build in U.S. inventories. Prices ended the week below the 9-day and 21-day moving averages.
• Henry Hub OI PCR increased to 1.05 on 21/Mar from 1.03 on 14/Mar. Call OI rose by 3.6% WoW, while put OI grew by 5%.

• Recent fall in US inflation breakevens driven by change in growth expectations and trade policy developments
• US breakevens appear somewhat cheap versus fair value framework, with near term inflation risks still skewed to the upside
• European breakevens have outperformed due to seismic shift in German fiscal policy, leading to a backup in intermediate yields on the German curve.

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• Private markets are evolving and becoming a mainstream part of investment portfolios
• Access to private market investments is no longer limited to just institutional investors
• Growth in private market universe is driven by demand for private capital and innovative structures for investor access

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• The Indonesian market has seen a sharp sell-off with a confluence of concerns centred around the execution and implementation of government policy but the fall was mainly driven by retail.
• The sell-off does not reflect an underlying deterioration of growth prospects for the economy or indeed earnings, although 4Q2024 results saw a slower performance for some sectors. 
• The government has already taken note and has determined to take action to reassure investors through policy measures. Valuations have already reached a historically attractive level.

• Prices crosses the magical level of INR 200/kg after five months  
• Supply short but farmers who stock and didn’t rainguard benefit  
•  Rubber Board starts geo-mapping of rubber plantations

• Global equity markets saw a sudden reversal in risk appetite out of the Magnificent Seven.
• While risk appetite has recovered in the U.S. equity market and a relief rally will likely continue, the jury is still out on whether the stampede into non-U.S. will continue.
• Reiterate our view that any relief rally is unlikely to be sustainable. Investors may be better served by diversifying their U.S. exposure into non-U.S. equities for the coming market cycle.

• The initial target range for the S&P in the US bear market is 4800 to 5000. This level also coincides with the technical level of -20% from the top.
• The stock market and economy in the US are highly co-dependent, and the bear market will cause consumption to fall more than in previous market downturns.
• Foreign investors have started to reduce their overweight US allocations quickly.  Retiree “Sequence of Returns Risk” will add to selling pressure in the US market.

• Micon management blaming soft NAND pricing, yet the outlook looks bright with price hikes on the horizon for April.
• Trump announcing the F-47 fighter jet after his status as 47th president sending Boeing up and Lockheed down
• Mega banks and Reginal banks posted sizable gains in Japan last week on expectations for higher yields. Looks priced in, but markets need something to chase with AI fever waning. 

• The Fed modestly revised economic growth expectations downwards for 2025 and next year and chose not to alter forward guidance. Two anticipated policy rate reductions in 2025 remain intact.
• Significant tapering of quantitative tightening was announced in anticipation of a debt ceiling agreement being reached. Higher Treasury borrowing could reduce reserves in the banking system, potentially creating financial instability.   
• Short-Term survey-based measures of consumers’ inflationary expectations have seemingly become more unhinged in 2025, but this should not prevent the Fed from switching to easier policy settings if required.

• Mixed data from China shows property prices down 5-7% YoY and lower land sales YTD, while weaker U.S. consumer sentiment has also negatively impacted overall commodity prices.
• China’s total social financing (TSF) for Jan-Feb reached 9.29 trillion RMB (Vs. consensus 9.75 trillion RMB). However, this figure is +16.6% YoY, signaling that substantial stimulus measures are in effect.
• We expect iron ore prices to remain rangebound between 95-120 USD/ton over the next few months as cost support is strong at the 100 USD/ton level. 

• Copper prices are receiving a favorable lift following the announcement of China’s “Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption” made early last week.
• Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 16% YoY for Jan-Feb to 9.29 trillion RMB. Despite being below the analyst forecasts (which were revised upwards), this is a strong number.
• Coupled with weaker supply (Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies ), copper prices can surpass 10k USD/ton in the medium-term. 

• Fed policy choices could create two distinct market paths: a growth-driven rally if rates fall to 2-2.5% or a defensive rotation if rates stay near 5%.
• Understanding equity as a call option explains why changing interest rates dramatically impacts sector performance and overall market returns.
• Practical strategies exist for navigating both scenarios, focusing on portfolio positioning that can adapt to either Fed outcome.

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
• The investment world has turned upside down where established norms have gone into reverse.
• The new investing environment needs to be paid attention to.

• The latest UK labour market report shows ongoing resilience in hard data compared to soft data, with policymakers focusing more on hard strength to avoid decision-making being influenced by negative factors. Easing cycles are evolving beyond expected outcomes.
• The upcoming UK Budget is not exempt from the prevailing uncertainty, with potential deferrals of some unlikely spending cuts being more about political convenience.
• UK inflation data for February is expected to be relatively stable, with Monday’s Flash PMIs also anticipated to draw attention.

• For the week ending 14/Mar, U.S. crude inventories rose 1.7m barrels (vs. expectations of 0.8m build), gasoline stockpiles fell below expectations, and distillate inventories declined more than anticipated.
• US natural gas inventories rose by 9 Bcf for the week ending 14/Mar, more than analyst expectations of a 3 Bcf build. Inventories are 10% below the 5-year seasonal average.
• Barclays cut Exxon’s price target to USD 135 from USD 137 with an Overweight rating, while Citigroup lowered Occidental’s target to USD 51 from USD 56 with a Neutral rating.

• We discuss an emerging concern in the global financial markets which is that many high-profile PE owned companies around the world are increasingly experiencing bankruptcies or near bankruptcies.
• The excessive leverage that MBK has tried to use on Homeplus has backfired due to higher interest rates, greater competition from Emart/Coupang, COVID-19, and lower buying power from asset sales.
• Although it may be premature to declare these bankruptcies/near-bankruptcies to be a prelude to the next Big Short 2, they indeed raise so many alarming bells.

• Math / In Depth: Tsinghua program shows the challenges of nurturing world-class mathematicians
• Consumption /: Chinese consumers are more confident and willing to spend, survey shows
• EVs /: Tariff turmoil roils Chinese electric-bus maker’s Mexico plans

• The BoE unsurprisingly held its policy rate at 4.5% in March, preserving its gradual easing path after resilient recent data. Only one MPC member dissented for a 25bp cut.
• Catherine Mann did not carry the extra 25bp of easing she supported from February to March. Her hyperactive vote relied on so little spurious evidence it was swiftly falsified.
• Core members emphasise the lack of a predetermined path, raising the hurdle to a May cut, but this remains the most likely outcome, even if it may require a rapid reversal.

• Unemployment remained at 4.4% in January amid rapid employment growth. Recent data suggest that the unemployment rate will likely decline over the next few months.
• Regular wage growth adhered to its 0.4% m-o-m trend. The headline is near 6%, leaving no progress over the past year. Financial sector bonuses weigh temporarily on total pay.
• Doves can temporarily dismiss this inconvenient resilience as unreliable noise, but the obvious risk is that it’s genuine and monetary stimulus has already become excessive.

• Surging demand for gold is leading to unexpected consequences in Ghana
• The gold industry is impacting cocoa production and causing environmental destruction
• Some individuals are turning to illegal gold mining out of necessity due to economic pressures

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• Recent reports that the Indonesian middle class has shrunk should not have come as a surprise, given long-running sluggishness in household consumption and poverty.  
• The problem goes beyond the pandemic dislocations: misguided reliance on extractive commodities sectors and a restrictive stance on foreign investments are primary culprits.
• Further squeezes on the middle class jeopardize Indonesia’s economic and political stability. Unfortunately, the government shows little sign of making the needed pivots.

• The USD is moderating, not just against developed market currencies, but also against Asian currencies. Usually, Asian currency revival is a lead indicator of acceleration of FII flows in Asia. 
• Our analysis of cumulative FII sales as proportion of market cap shows that Korea and Indonesia are oversold. India is almost there, but not quite. HK/China is still under-owned. 
• Taiwan and Thailand, despite large FII selling over an extended period, are still not oversold. Both markets face risks from the tariff war and could face more FII selling pressure.

• China accounts for 43.6% of total Malaysian NR exports in Jan
• Recovery and Rubber Production Enhancement Plan launched
• Risda may become sole purchaser of smallholder rubber

• Railway / In Depth: China’s soaring overland trade accelerates cross-border rail projects
• China-Japan /: Japan’s Ambassador to China sees a lot potential for economic cooperation
• Stocks /: Foreign investor enthusiasm for Chinese stocks is on the up

• Southeast Asia: Indonesia and Thailand face economic instability due to policy missteps, high lending rates, and unsustainable fiscal strategies.
• China: Focused on consumer confidence and liquidity rather than excessive government spending to drive economic stability.
• U.S. Economy: Inflation expectations remain high, delaying potential rate cuts while political uncertainty increases recession risks.

• The SNB lowered its policy rate by 25bps to 0.25%, in line with expectations, citing low inflation and downside risks to price stability. Inflation is projected to remain within the central bank’s target range, reducing the need for aggressive monetary easing.
• Switzerland’s economy remains resilient, with solid Q4 2024 growth, but global uncertainties—including geopolitical tensions and trade risks—could pose challenges. Domestic demand is expected to benefit from rising real wages, while weak foreign trade may dampen overall growth.
• Future policy decisions will be data-dependent, with the SNB closely monitoring inflation and external conditions. While further easing is possible, ongoing global inflationary pressures and fiscal stimulus in Europe could influence the central bank’s stance.

• As expected, the Riksbank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, citing broadly stable inflation and economic conditions despite recent global volatility.
• Inflation has exceeded expectations due to temporary factors, but it is projected to stabilise close to 2% next year as these effects normalise and the krona strengthens.
• Geopolitical tensions, trade policy shifts, and domestic economic factors such as household consumption and investment will be key in determining future monetary policy adjustments.

• Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything Geopolitics and Commodities.
• Industrial metals (and precious metals) have performed very well this year, and we’ve thankfully been part of (parts of) this ride.
• With new signs emerging of a stimulus targeting consumption patterns in the economy, Wall Street’s takeaway has been that China has regained significant momentum.

• Bank Of China Ltd, Celltrion Inc and Li Auto top the list as the largest index constituents held by less that 5% of active Asia Ex-Japan funds.
• Unloved stock numbers increase after China A-share inclusion in 2018/19 and further amplified by post-2020 restrictions on select Chinese military-linked firms.
• Select funds do own sizeable positions in these stocks.  Are they the ultimate contrarian trades?

• Eurostat shrunk the final Euro area inflation print for February by 5bp, rounding it down to 2.3% after German revisions, reversing the upward surprise from the flash release.
• French energy utility prices drove this decline, and petrol prices seem set to drag it down further in March. However, the median impulse is also relatively subdued.
• ECB policy is unlikely to be affected by this revision and the temporary impact of energy prices on inflation. We still expect it to hold rates in April before a final cut in June.

• Trelleborg plant in the US to shut down in April, 2025
•  Israel, Prague plants too stop working in 2025
• Hangzhou to have car tire plant producing 9 million tires a year

• WTI futures rose 0.2% for the week ending 14/Mar, reversing a seven-week losing streak, driven by Middle East tensions and tighter-than-expected U.S. crude inventories.
• U.S. rig count remained unchanged at 592, after falling by one last week. The oil rig count grew by one to 487 and gas rigs fell by one to 100.
• WTI OI PCR rose to 0.93 on 14/Mar from 0.91 on 07/Mar. Call OI increased by 5.6% WoW, while put OI rose by 7.6%.

• For the week ending 14/Mar, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 6.7% due to milder weather forecasts and increased U.S. production.
• Henry Hub hit a two-year high early in the week but quickly retreated due to warmer-than-expected winter forecasts. Prices ended the week below the 9-day and 21-day moving averages.
• Henry Hub OI PCR increased to 1.03 on 14/Mar compared to 1.00 on 07/Mar. Call OI rose by 3.1% WoW, while put OI grew by 7%.

• Discussion of podcast topics on St. Patrick’s Day and credit crisis history
• Analysis of current market trends and performance, including digital assets and tariffs
• Comparison of market patterns from previous years to predict future performance and impact of events like tariffs

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• Fiscal / Analysis: China tables fiscal salvo for flagging domestic demand
• Loans /: Chinese banks relax loan terms to fuel tech sector M&A deals
• Tesla FSD: Tesla Inc. is offering its Chinese customers a one-month free trial of its Full-Self Driving (FSD) feature, which still requires drivers to keep their hands on the wheel…

• Russia is at a turning point. This together with its size, mineral riches, cheap valuations and common sense suggest investors should be looking to enter the market.
• The end of the Ukraine and the re-integration of Russia into world trade and financial markets will be a turning point for the country. 
• At home the war time economic boom is winding down. High interest rates and inflation are dampening demand and growth will slow this year. Even so Russia’s outlook is brightening.

• The Bank of Japan held its uncollateralised overnight call rate at around 0.5%, in line with expectations, reflecting a moderate economic recovery and sustained inflationary pressures.
• Core CPI inflation remains at 3.0-3.5% year-on-year, with underlying inflation expected to gradually rise towards the BoJ’s target by 2025, driven by a tightening labour market and wage-price dynamics.
• The BoJ remains data-dependent, with policy direction contingent on wage growth sustainability, yen depreciation effects, and global economic risks, suggesting a cautious approach to normalisation.