Macro

• The Hong Kong market is consolidating with rotational buying into value and high dividend factor investments.  Mainland buying has slowed and diversified away from tech into low volatility names.
• After leading the market for nine months, growth and momentum factors turned down sharply in October.  The energy sector is showing increased strength and momentum, while tech and healthcare lag.
• Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK) had a technical breakout after forming a Golden Cross with a rebound off its 50 day-moving-average. The share price is benefiting from anti-involution policies.

• Most analysis of Opec+’s 2 November decision is as overly simplistic as the cartel’s public justifications. Calling an unwinding ‘time out’ in 2026Q1 is by no means unwise.
• Most notably — and despite continuing economic and political uncertainty — it is very likely that the market will be awash with oil in any case for some months to come.
• In other words, the cartel may already have done enough to achieve its primary objective, i.e. clawing back market share at the expense of US shale producers.

• Global copper demand is stabilising after months of weakness, even as inventories thin out. The ICSG now expects a 150,000-ton deficit in 2026, reversing its earlier forecast of a surplus.
• A softer dollar and expectations of continued Fed easing are improving the backdrop for commodities. The copper–gold ratio sits near 30-year lows, signalling room for mean reversion.
• The bullish setup hinges on growth holding up and exceeding the rate of growth of China. Electrification to be the biggest driver.

• In the second half of October, inflation stood at 0.14% bw, reflecting lower pressures on agricultural products.
• As a result, headline inflation declined to 3.50% YoY, leaving room for Banco de México to deliver another rate cut at its December meeting.
• Typically, inflation for this period averages 0.14% bw. 

• ADD Probe into Rubber Glove Imports from Malaysia, Thailand  
• Finance Ministry imposes new duty on insoluble sulphur  
• DGTR Recommends Continuation of Duties on NBR Imports  

• Crude oil futures were sliding lower Wednesday with benchmarks failing to hold the early-week gains as traders eyed the impact of Russian sanctions against the supply glut.
• Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $62.63/b (2151 GMT) versus Tuesday’s settle of $65.15/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $58.40/b against a previous close of $61.04/b.
• Sentiment had improved at the start of the week with the US government shutdown set to end, while tighter sanctions on Russia have started to disrupt supplies.

• Another disappointing rise in the unemployment rate should embolden Bailey’s bias to cut rates in December. Falling net underemployment contradicts, but is easily ignored.
• Another step down in payrolls, matched by employment this time, could be blamed on fears for the Budget. Redundancies also spiked, although vacancies are stable.
• Headline pay growth is slowing as expected, while the monthly impulse remains excessively strong, so the hawks are unlikely to see inflation persistence as broken.

• Private markets are investments into non-listed companies or assets, providing diversification and potentially higher returns for portfolios
• There is a significant trend of companies staying private for longer, leading to increased opportunities for private market investors
• Individual investors are increasingly looking to allocate to private markets, with the total alternative assets under management expected to reach $32 trillion by 2030.

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• The US dollar remains strong despite ongoing government shutdown and uncertain economic data
• Eurodollar shows resilience and potential for growth due to positive PMI data in Europe
• Range-bound trading expected for Eurodollar with potential for upside breakout depending on US data and market conditions

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• Crude oil futures opened the week slightly higher on growing optimism that the US government shutdown was close to ending, while Iraqi output could be under after Lukoil declared force majeure at the West Qurna-2 oilfield.
• Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.07/b (2130 GMT) versus Friday’s settle of $63.63/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.14/b against a previous close of $59.75/b.
• Prices ticked higher Monday after the US Senate on Sunday passed the first stage of a deal that would end the government shutdown, underpinning the broader financial risk-on sentiment.

• US base oils demand could be more muted amid expectations of rise in domestic supply over coming weeks following completion of plant-maintenance work.
• Sufficient availability of supply in recent weeks, even during plant-shutdown, points to signs of already-slower demand during that period.
• Expected rise in supply would coincide with time of year when domestic consumption typically slows anyway.

• Riksbank expected to stay on hold due to inflation moving along expected lines
• Norges Bank has implicit easing bias but unlikely to deliver rate cuts based on incoming data
• Bank of England keeps rates on hold with closer vote split, markets pricing in gradual rate cuts through early next year

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• In Depth: Thaw in China Relations Brings Good Vibes to Canada’s Energy, Agri-Food Businesses
• U.S. Exporters Laud China Tariff Reprieve, but Scars Remain
• Country Garden Wins Creditor Backing for $17.7 Billion Debt Restructuring

• Iron ore rebounded as supply tightened, and trade sentiment improved, though weak demand and margin pressure capped gains.
• Managed money participants increased their net long positions across all futures and options expiries, signalling renewed confidence in the bullish trend.
• The DCE-SGX spread’s climb above key MAs signals firm bullish momentum, though sustained strength remains crucial.

• Net international reserves continue to grow reaching 50.07 bn $ at the end of October.

• This comes after the increase recorded last week for the NFA’s of the banking sector.

• The increase is quite significant and almost double the pace we witnessed this year so far.

• Crude oil futures were climbing higher Tuesday, as tighter sanctions on Russia helped to offset concerns over a growing supply glut.
• Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $65.05/b (2052 GMT) versus Monday’s settle of $64.06/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.93/b against a previous close of $60.13/b.
• Prices strengthened after Kpler reported that volumes of Russian crude into India have slumped by almost half during the early part of November, suggesting Washington’s latest sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil have started to bite.

• Chinese AI model downloads have surpassed those of the U.S. putting at risk the valuations of the large hyperscalers in the U.S.
• Chinese open-source AI models offer a more secure, efficient, and lower cost alternative to Chat GPT -5 , Claude 4.5 Sonnet, and other U.S. LLMs.  
• We believe that there will be a turning point when investors will realize that the Chinese open-source AI models have undercut the premise of U.S. global dominance of AI.

• One of the biggest stories in the Korean stock market in the past several weeks has been the discussions about NPS potentially increasing the allocation of Korean stocks.
• If NPS announces a meaningful increase in the allocation of Korean stocks for its AUM, then there could certainly be an acceleration to KOSPI reaching 5,000. 
• Based on what we have gathered so far, there is a higher probability (70-80%) that NPS meaningfully increases the allocation of Korean stocks in the next several months. 

• Crude oil futures nudged higher Friday but were heading for a second week of losses, albeit modest, with the market unable to shake off the gloom surrounding predictions of a massive oversupply in Q1.
• Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.72/b (2005 GMT) versus Thursday’s settle of $63.38/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $59.84/b against a previous close of $59.53/b.
• The oversupply narrative amid soaring supplies and tepid demand growth has taken hold of markets this week, overshadowing geopolitical concerns.

• Falling mortgage rates during 2025 have imparted a limited impact on housing activity.  Rates are higher than recent historic lows,  blunting channels through which lower mortgage rates benefit economic activity.
• Poor affordability has been a headwind for housing in recent years., particularly since 2022. Rising home prices have made renting more affordable, notwithstanding supply shortages of desired housing stock.
• Rising numbers of smaller households have boosted demand for smaller properties, but developers have been slow to respond to the shift by retaining a trading-up strategy in core urban areas.

• In the midst of the soft top-line performance, management remains cautious, expecting more cost and Capex efficiencies, and a tough consumer environment with consumers remaining more selective as in previous quarters.
• Still, most companies reiterated their FY25 guidance, with Bimbo an exception amid different FX conditions vs previously forecasted, and with Chedraui expecting downside risks at the top-line level.
• Within Food & Bev, we continue to prefer AC, KOF, FEMSA and Becle (all Outperform). With no major PT changes, we continue to expect these players to outperform peers despite volume pressure and the excise taxes planned for next year. 

• The once-tiny  Bhumjaithai Party has leveraged off shifting political dynamics such as the Pheu Thai Party’s decline to emerge as the most powerful power broker in the country. 
• Hence, the coming election could break the 21-year old political deadlock by enabling a new political alignment that is better able to devise a fundamental political resolution. 
• Such a resolution will allow a less distracted political class to tackle Thailand’s deep challenges, revive a moribund economy, and so escape the middle-income trap.

• We continue to observe mixed performance across our Real Estate coverage.
• Industrial Real Estate companies once again delivered solid operational results —a trend we expect to persist— supported by ongoing development activity, and stable, inflation-linked revenues from their stabilized portfolios.
• Despite continued uncertainty surrounding trade relations and tariffs, renewal rate growth remains robust across our covered names, while vacancy rates remain below 6%, underscoring the sector’s resilience.

• Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay muted.
• Expectations of healthy availability of supply and seasonal slowdown in demand curb urgency to lock in additional volumes.
• Seasonal slowdown could limit immediate impact of any adjustment in base oils output because of lower margins.

• Asia’s base oils prices extend steep fall vs gasoil prices.
• Weaker outright prices compound the drop.
• Sliding price-differentials, combined with increasingly firm diesel premium to crude oil, increase pressure on refiners to adjust output in response.

• Glove demand rebounds as inventories normalize  
• US tariffs boost Malaysian manufacturers’ market share  
• Automation drives efficiency, supporting margin recovery

• Midway through the 3Q25 result season, eighteen Asian market-sectors have reported consensus EPS estimate upgrades over past one, three and six months. A quarter ago, we identified 11 such sectors.
• Eleven of these sectors are from HK/China, Korea and Taiwan. Seven are from ASEAN markets, dominated by Thailand. India and Singapore are conspicuous by their absence.
• Among the notable sectors with EPS upgrades, Chinese base metals, HK/Chinese and Korean financials, Chinese pharmaceuticals, Korean and Taiwanese technology, Thai utilities and communication and Philippines transportation stand out.

• We are bullish on the S&P 500 into year-end and into the early part of 2026.
• A combination of easy monetary policy and fiscal policy represents reflationary macro tailwinds.
• The stock market is also enjoying support from positive price and fundamental momentum.

• We have heard many concerns from chartists in the past few months about the narrow nature of breadth in the U.S. equity market.
• Investors need to distinguish between narrow relative leadership and weak breadth. While leadership is narrow, absolute breadth remains positive.
• We reiterate our view that equity investors should adopt a barbell strategy of overweight U.S. large-cap growth and non-U.S. developed market value stocks.

• The BoE resisted cavalier calls for a rate cut this week, but it is much less cautious than we expected. A December rate cut is now likely, absent significant upside surprises.
• All other central bank announcements this week fit the trend, with cautious holds in Australia, Sweden, Norway, Malaysia and Brazil, and a more careful cut in Mexico.
• Next week’s UK labour market (and GDP) data are one of the few things that could clear the evidential hurdle to block a cut, although we doubt good news will extend that far.

• Hong Kong has entered a consolidation stage of its long-term Secular Bull Market.  Southbound buying declined in October from an all time high in the previous month.
• Dividend yield and low volatility factors outperformed in October as growth and momentum factors declined.  
• The technology and healthcare sectors declined in October, while the energy and utility sectors gained during the month.

• Major Western oil giants posted strong Q3 2025 profits as surging refining margins and trading gains offset volatility and sustained production strength.
• Ukrainian strikes and escalating Western sanctions on Russia tightened global product supply, pushing refining margins higher and supporting downstream earnings.
• Refining margins are likely to stay elevated as prolonged sanctions, supply disruptions, and seasonal maintenance sustain tightness despite potential demand headwinds.

• Crude oil futures drifting amid choppy trade Thursday before regaining some ground after benchmarks broke out of the recent trading range to test two-week lows, although surging gasoil cracks were lending some support.
• Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.45/b (2100 BST) versus Wednesday’s settle of $63.52/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $59.54/b against a previous close of $59.60/b.
• Crude retreated midweek as concerns over a supply glut in Q1 continued to weigh on sentiment, with demand growth seen falling well short of fresh supply this year and next.

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• Another 5:4 vote split broke the BoE’s run of quarterly rate cuts. Governor Bailey is revealed to be the pivotal member, with the others worried about inflation persistence.
• Bailey endorsed market pricing and a forward-looking Taylor Rule path that includes a cut this quarter. His verbal comments imply a presumption in favour of cutting then.
• Upside news over the next two monthly release cycles would be needed to block that December cut. Resistance to cutting should only grow stronger as time passes.

• The WTI Crude futures market currently trades with persistent and significant opposing market forces actively holding the price within a defined trading range.
• Long-Term supply/demand bearishness and a strong geopolitical risk premium create a price floor, which could be further supported by recent decisions by OPEC+
• This structural back-and-forth in price action creates a window to execute a strategic options trade monetizing implied volatility levels.

• In Depth: How the U.S.’ Foreign Student Loss Could Be Hong Kong’s Gain
• Goldman CEO Expects Foreign Investors to Further Return to China in 2026
• Hong Kong Freezes Over $350 Million Linked to Cambodian Crime Syndicate

• Bank Negara maintained the OPR at 2.75% in November 2025, aligned with forecasts, reflecting confidence in steady 5.2% Q3 growth and contained inflation.​
• The decision contrasts with regional easing trends; the central bank views the current stance as appropriate amid resilient domestic demand and easing tariff uncertainties.​
• Forward guidance indicates rates are likely to be stable through mid-2026, contingent on global trade developments, inflation trends, and US rate shifts.

• The Norges Bank held rates at 4% as expected. Core inflation at 3% constrains further cuts despite emerging economic slack in the coming year.
• Governor Bache stressed the bank is “not in a hurry” to cut rates, projecting one reduction annually through 2028. Cuts depend on disinflation progressing as forecast.
• December’s new forecasts will be critical—faster disinflation or sharper labour market weakness could accelerate cuts, while persistent inflation could keep rates higher for longer.

• Rubber product export slip accentuates by August  
• Industry warns SVAT removal may choke liquidity  
• CEAT’s US$171 million move gives manufacturing impetus  

• The diverging services PMI and ISM resolved bullishly in October, with activity broadly back to 2024 averages. The ISM headline still looks lower because it is a composite.
• Price balances remain extremely elevated while employment’s weakness has become less acute, skewing the trade-off more hawkishly for any policymaker’s preferences.
• The broader global deterioration in PMIs and unemployment last month also recovered in the latest round of releases. These data are not screaming for any more easing.

• In the third quarter of the year, GDP contracted -0.3% QoQ, ending two consecutive periods of growth.
• This result reflects the loss of momentum in the industrial sector, affected by weakness in construction and stagnation in manufacturing.
• In the third quarter, the economy contracted -0.3% quarter-over-quarter, in line with our estimate and the market consensus of -0.4%. 

• We expect inflation for the second half of October to stand at 0.09% biweekly, amid lower pressures on agricultural product prices.
• On an annual basis, headline inflation for October would stand at 3.54%. Typically, inflation for this period averages 0.19% bw.
• Our lower estimate reflects reduced pressure from the non-core component (0.00% bw vs. 0.39% historical). 

• In September, manufacturing exports maintained their strength, growing 15.2% y/y, accompanied by a 19.6% y/y rebound in intermediate goods imports, suggesting greater demand for inputs from the manufacturing sector amid the continued expansion of external demand.
• In the ninth month of the year, the trade balance recorded a deficit of USD 2,400 million, higher than our estimate of USD 1,270 million and the deficit anticipated by the consensus of USD 500 million.
• Typically, in this month the trade balance shows a deficit of around USD 1,440 million.

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• Crude oil futures were lower Wednesday but benchmarks continued to trade in the narrow range in place since last week.
• Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.54/b (2135 BST) versus Tuesday’s settle of $64.44/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $59.62/b against a previous close of $60.66/b.
• The market has been looking for direction since Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting when the eight members taking part in voluntary cuts added another 137,0000 bpd to quotas in December, although countered this with a pause on any further increases in Q1.

• In September, the labor market continued to show signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate reaching 2.98%, reflecting a lower capacity to absorb individuals entering the labor force.
• The figure exceeded both our estimate of 2.80% and the 2.86% anticipated by consensus, marking its highest level since August 2024 and accumulating three consecutive months of increases.
• Meanwhile, the Economically Active Population stood at 62.1 million people, up from 61.3 million in the previous month. 

• The Riksbank left rates unchanged at 1.75%, matching consensus. Inflation is easing but is still above target, signalling little chance of cuts or hikes in the near term.​
• A weak labour market offset stronger-than-expected Q3 growth. Policymakers are watching household demand closely to assess the durability of the recovery before shifting rates.​
• Ongoing risks from geopolitics, trade, and fiscal policy keep the future rate path uncertain, with market pricing in steady rates through 2026 barring major shocks.

• The meeting in Busan between Presidents Trump and Xi reduced the tension between the two countries, but the detente may only be temporary and confusion on details persist.
• Tariffs were immediately reduced and potential future increases delayed by a year.  President Trump offered to reduce the fentanyl tariff further to 0% after the meeting.
• The most critical issues of export restrictions on chips and Rare Earth Elements were dialed back with recent threatened restrictions delayed by a year.

• CEO of Quantly discusses market updates, geopolitical landscape, and trends in safe havens
• Focus on innovation and tech, AI, and bitcoin in the digital market
• Analysis of one year trends in safe havens, bitcoin, gold, and the impact of tariffs on the market.

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• Iron ore futures slipped as China’s steel output fell for the fifth consecutive week, with weak demand and rising inventories weighing on sentiment.
• Managed money participants trimmed their net long positions across all futures and options expiries, signalling profit-taking and a more cautious market stance.
• The DCE-SGX spread is gaining momentum, with technical indicators hinting at a sustained near-term widening trend.

• Asia’s base oils prices extend fall vs gasoil prices, with Group II heavy-grade differentials slipping to lowest since start of Q3 2024.
• Ongoing squeeze on base oils margins increases importance for refiners to maintain balanced-to-tight supplies to boost their leverage to adjust prices accordingly.
• Weaker margins and importance of balanced supplies boost incentive for refiners to adjust output accordingly.

• Production slips 12.8% amid lacklustre smallholder involvement  
• Imports rebound MoM, exports edge up on steady China demand  
• Glove exports slip in value to RM 1.2 billion, down 7.7% from July  

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• China to Scrap Tariffs on U.S. Farm Goods, Buy More Soybeans
• China’s 2035 GDP Goal Requires 4.17% Annual Growth

• Crude oil futures were drifting lower Tuesday with benchmarks unable to find conviction on any upwards move for a second session, following what had been viewed as a relatively neutral OPEC+ decision on Sunday.
• Front-month Janc25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.50/b (2107 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $64.89/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.57/b against a previous close of $61.05/b.
• While the group of eight members added another 137,000 bpd to quotas in December, the members taking part in voluntary cuts agreed to pause the unwinding program in the first quarter.

• Crude oil futures opened the week steady after OPEC+ said it would hold off on further production increases following a small uplift in December.
• Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.86/b (2205 BST) versus Friday’s settle of $64.77/b , while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $61.05/b against a previous close of $60.98/b.
• The OPEC+ announcement to pause production levels in Q1 came after the group rubberstamped another 137,000 bpd increase in December , a move that had been widely flagged and priced-in ahead of Sunday’s meeting.

• The RBA held its cash rate at 3.6% as anticipated, but its decision marks a shift from easing after September’s inflation surprise, signalling an extended pause in rate cuts through at least mid-2026.​
• Central forecasts now project trimmed mean inflation above 3% for the coming quarters before settling at 2.6% in 2027, requiring mildly restrictive policy rates of 3.4% by mid-2026—materially slower easing than many forecasters anticipated.​
• Labour market softening provides limited comfort as elevated vacancies and wage pressures persist. Two-sided uncertainty around demand strength and the global outlook creates risks justifying a cautious approach to future cuts.

• US Group II base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil (VGO) holds firm.
• Firm price-premium vs VGO contrasts with falling price-premium this time a year ago.
• Firm price-premium incentivizes refiners to maintain or raise output.

• Pushback by Powell and peers trimmed some excessively dovish pricing, but the BoE converged down on poor data.
• The BoE should also resist pressure as underlying issues are unbroken by relatively marginal recent payback.
• We now see markets overpricing easing most in the UK. More weakness is needed to signal a threatening trend.

• We offer a plausible scenario that explains the recent surge and correction in gold. 
• The market misinterpreted the “Liberation Day” USD decline as a “Sell America” trade instead of a “Hedge America” trade and panicked out of USD and rushed into gold.
• We expect a bottom in gold in Q4 or Q1 as the new Fed Chair pivots monetary policy in a more expansionary manner.

• A review of our Trend Asset Allocation Model reveals a broadly based momentum-driven global bull.  
• The S&P 500 is also entering a period of positive year-end seasonality.
• In light of the bullish support provided by the intermediate trend, investors should be positioning for a rally into year-end.

• In October FIIs bought US$2.36bn of Asian equities, sharply lower than US$8.42bn in September. They sold Taiwan (-US$3.2bn), bought Korea (US$4.2bn) and India (US$1.66bn). ASEAN continued to be sold.
• FIIs’ dampened sentiment was triggered by Asia’s toppish valuations and a decline in probability of a Fed rate cut in December, which in turn led to a stronger US Dollar.
• Going forward we expect flows to recover in Taiwan and stay healthy in Korea, as sentiment on AI capex recovers, driven by strong growth and robust capex targets of hyperscalers.

• Although the Fed reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points last week, as expected, Chairman Powell disappointed markets with a hawkish pivot about further declines in 2025.
• The cessation of quantitative tightening , effective 1 December, was also announced due to the elimination of excess liquidity in the financial system and strains in repo funding markets.
• The elevated demand for repo funding due to high Treasury debt issuance means the Fed has effectively lost control of its balance sheet due to profligate fiscal policy conduct.

• Luxembourg’s Economy is projected to continue the positive growing trends in the next three years.
• According to IMF, the economy is expected to present growth rates of 1.03%, 1.58% and 2.21% in the years 2024-2026, rebounding from the slight contraction of 0.69% in 2023.
• Investments as percentage of GDP, are to stay between the 14-15% level, i.e. well below the 18% average of the last years. 

• During the third quarter of 2025, the Massif Capital Real Assets Strategy returned 36.1% net of fees, bringing our YTD returns to 41.5% net of fees.
• Gross-of-fees gains from the long book were 35.9% and short book gains were 0.73%.
• The Real Assets strategy has now been running for 27 quarters, and this was our best quarter to date, bringing our since-inception annualized net-of-fees returns to 14.6%.

• The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio’s performance was -2.01% in October versus returns of -0.81 for the benchmark and -3.53 to  -8.62 for Hong Kong indexes.
• The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has captured most of the market gains and minimized drawdowns since inception. The portfolio’s outperformance is more than 40% since inception in October 2024.
• At month-end, we reduced materials and healthcare exposure.  We had already reduced the tech exposure earlier in the month.  We established positions in the utility, textile, and battery sectors.

• Bean prices have rallied strong in Oct pushing past the 12-month trading range. Hope or Fundamentals?
• China has not purchased any US beans for MY 2025/26. In 2024/25, Chinese buying stalled after May.
• Puzzle is that prices climb despite worsening fundamentals. Are traders pricing in an eventual resolution? What if their hopes are misplaced?

• In 2024, China’s economy expanded by 5.0%. Final consumption expenditure contributed 2.2 percentage points to the overall GDP increase, underscoring its central role in economic momentum.
• Capital formation also supported the expansion, adding 1.3 percentage points. From a sectoral perspective, the tertiary industry was the leading contributor, accounting for 2.8 percentage points of the total GDP growth.
• IMF projections call for growth rates of around 3.9% in both years 2025 and 2026.

• A shipyard is an industrial facility where vessels are designed, built, maintained, repaired, and upgraded.
• Additionally, the shipbuilding industry has close relationships with sectors such as transport, security, energy, research, and the environment.
• The global shipbuilding market size in 2025 was around c.€132.7 billion and was expected to grow to c.€170.8 billion by 2030 at a 5-year CAGR of c.4.1%.

• In 2025, projections regarding Greek GDP growth remain very high, 2.09% and 2.11% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, according to IMF, OECD and European Commission.
• The increase in prices was under the 2% target, at 1.9% in September 2025, a lot lower than July and August (3.1% and 2.9% respectively).
• The Debt to GDP ratio is expected to decrease in the next years, continuing the past years’ trend and will eventually reach 141.2% in 2026. 

• Crude futures moved higher in late-Friday trading after this week’s US-China talks were met with a muted response from oil markets, while investors continued to monitor Russian sanctions and the likely outcome of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting.
• Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $65.07/b (2020 BST) versus Thursday’s settle of $64.37/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.87/b against a previous close of $60.57/b.
• The ‘truce’ between Beijing and Washington was seen as enough to keep global trade ticking over, but in the absence of a long-term solution, analysts said markets are likely to be kept on edge.