Macro

• The net short selling balance in KOSPI reached 12.6 trillion won as of 20 October. This is the largest amount ever.
• The top 5 companies in KOSPI with highest short selling balance/market cap ratio include Kakaopay, L&F, Hanmi Semiconductor, Cosmax, and LG H&H. 
• Net short position In KOSDAQ as a percentage of total KOSDAQ market cap more than doubled from 0.5% as of 31 March to 1.1% as of 21 October 2025.

• Crude oil futures were trending higher Wednesday after markets finally found some support, coming after the heavy losses so far in October that had seen benchmarks challenge post-Covid lows.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.12/b (2034 BST) versus Tuesday’s settle of $61.32/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $59.21/b against a previous close of $57.24/b.
• Prices rebounded on reports that talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin had been put on hold, increasing the threat of sanctions on Russia and broader supply disruptions from attacks on infrastructure.

• Law / In Depth: Dumping Case Shows How Chemical-Makers Shield Themselves From Liability 
• Autos /: China’s Carmakers Shift Price War Tactics With Low Launch Prices
• Insurance /: JD.com Obtains Hong Kong Insurance Brokerage License, Sources Say

• UK inflation’s march higher ended early as expectations tripped over a drop in airfares to slow slightly in September, ahead of slightly falling back through the Fall seasonal.
• Weakness elsewhere cut the annualised median rate below 2% for the first time since March. That is likely to be a small soft spot relative to the worrying cumulative upside.
• Our forecasts remain close to or below the consensus until June, after other forecasts rose in last month’s survey. We still see wages stoking an excessive underlying trend.

• China will roll out its 2026 – 2030 five-year plan this month, which outline the economic and social roadmap until the end of the decade.  
• Historically the five-year plans have been a roadmap for investors to look for tailwinds for economic sector performance.  We believe the high-tech industries will remain the main focus for investment.
• Exporters of high-end equipment and machinery will continue to benefit with the consumption sector being a focus for international investors.

• Crude oil futures initially struggled Tuesday as global trade tensions and supply glut fears continued to drag on prices before a late-day rebound lifted benchmarks into positive territory on the day.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $61.37/b (2010 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $61.01/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $57.32/b against a previous close of $57.02/b.
• Oil markets continued to face growing headwinds, including the latest round of anti-trade measures between Washington and Beijing, putting global economic growth at risk.

• China’s aggressive crude stockpiling through 2025 has quietly reduced global supply, cushioning oil prices against a surplus-driven downturn amid OPEC+ supply hikes.
• By absorbing excess barrels when prices fall and easing purchases when they rise, China’s flexible buying strategy has emerged as a stabilising force in global oil markets.
• With inventories estimated between 1.4 and 2 billion barrels, China’s future buying pace will hinge on price trends, geopolitical pressures, and internal reserve targets.

• Vietnam exports 1.12 million tons of rubber in Jan–Aug  
• Exports to China up 5.9% in volume; value surges 22%  
• Typhoon Kajiki causes brief disruptions, but exports stay firm  

• BI held rates at 4.75%, surprising consensus expectations of a 25bp cut. The pause addresses rupiah stability concerns amid USD5.26bn capital outflows.
• Inflation is benign at 2.65% (core 2.19%) within the target range. Enhanced macroprudential policy is complementing easing with credit growth incentives.
• Further cuts are likely as the Fed eases, depending on rupiah stability, credit transmission effectiveness, and fiscal-monetary policy coordination.

• Release sparks sell-off: Vietnam’s government inspectorate released findings October 17th. Despite widespread anticipation of the findings, Vietnamese equities were down sharply following the release.
• Fault lines and risk nodes: 5 listed banks, Masan entities, T&T Group, project vehicles, and Novaland affiliates. Issues include disclosure failures, off-plan proceeds use, arrears, and single-buyer concentrations.
• Signal and policy path: Expect a stricter rulebook and more active supervision. The core system remains intact, but governance discounts rise, and issuance windows narrow as controls are rebuilt.

• Autos / In Depth: Desperate for Smart Driving Tech, State Carmakers Turn to Huawei
• HKMA /Interview: HKMA’s Fintech Chief on Forging Hong Kong’s Digital Asset Future
• Policy /Beijing Fast-Tracks $42 Billion Through Policy Banks to Revive Growth

• US base oils prices rise versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, especially for Group II light-grade export prices.
• Firmer margins point to steady-to-tight supply-demand fundamentals at a time of year when they typically start to weaken.
• Firmer margins incentivize refiners to maintain or raise output.

• The materials sector continues its outperformance in Hong Kong, however the recent sharp pullback showed a weakening in strength and momentum.
• Mainland investors continued to buy Hong Kong listed stocks heavily during the market pullback earlier this month.
• Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK) quashed market rumors about a large robotic order from Tesla (TSLA US); however, it continues discussions on cooperation opportunities.

• The longer the US government shutdown continues, the more headwinds accumulate against the dollar and investor conviction remains low.
• Despite near term uncertainty, a dollar bearish outlook is maintained, with a focus on outside the US pro-cyclical growth metrics.
• Developments in US regional banks and escalating US-China trade tensions are key factors affecting global markets, with potential impacts on FX, risk events, and Eurodollar performance.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Crude oil futures were again under pressure Friday after the latest selloff in the previous sessions sent prices tumbling to fresh five-month lows, coming amid proposed ceasefire talks in the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $61.32/b (2055 BST) versus Thursday’s settle of $61.06/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI  was at  $57.22/b  against a previous close of $57.46/b.
• Prices had found some support in the previous session after US President Donald Trump said he had received a pledge from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to halt imports of Russian crude oil.

• Malaysia attempts to stick to its fiscal consolidation path, although this comes amid a backdrop of weaker global growth and stickier public spending obligations.   
• The stagnation in development spending, lower revenue-to-GDP ratio, and higher debt service charge burden underline the incomplete nature of fiscal consolidation. 
• While the fiscal targets remain nominally intact, the quality of its consolidation risks slippage in the coming years. Challenges to medium-term sustainability remain unaddressed.

• Global base oils margins rise in response to increasingly lower crude oil prices.
• Mostly-steady outright prices magnify impact of lower crude oil prices.
• Firmer margins and steady outright prices point to stronger-than-usual fundamentals for the time of year.

• US base oils demand could stay cautious amid signs of sufficient availability of supply even with current plant-maintenance work and as regular export cargoes remove surplus volumes.
• Sufficient availability of supply suggests demand is sufficiently weak to balance out current drop in volumes.
• US domestic Group II base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil (VGO) holds in narrow range so far in Q4 2025, reflecting that dynamic.

• US Group II base oils prices stay in unusually narrow range versus vacuum gasoil feedstock prices throughout most of this year.
• US Group II base oils domestic price-premium to export prices similarly stays in relatively narrow range so far this year.
• US Group II heavy-grade price-discount to prices in markets like India similarly holds in relatively narrow range throughout most of this year.

• Crude oil futures opened the week softer as benchmarks continued to struggle in the face of global trade tensions and a looming supply glut.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $60.84/b (2012 BST) versus Thursday’s settle of $61.29/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $56.86/b against a previous close of $57.54/b.
• Prices continued to bump around five-month lows amid concerns over a recent escalation in the trade conflict between the US and China.

• Asia’s base oils demand could stay more cautious as lower crude oil prices coincide with improving supply of most base oils grades.
• Lower crude prices and rising supply increase concern about exposure to further downward pressure on base oils prices.
• Signs of healthy stocks in all key regional markets give buyers flexibility to hold back until they are comfortable that any price-adjustments have been completed.

• Asia’s Group II base oils prices rise versus gasoil prices to highest in more than a month for heavy grades, highest since Q2 2025 for light grades.
• Rising base oils margins point to firm supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing refiners to maintain or raise output.
• Incentive to raise output follows rise in base oils exports from Asia’s largest suppliers to thirteen-month high in Sept 2025.

• Hong Kong has pulled back this month as the U.S. trade war intensifies, however it remains in a Secular Bull Market.
• Materials and Healthcare sectors continue to outperform YTD, with Technology coming in a distant 3rd place.
• Hengan International Group (1044 HK)  had multiple breakouts relative to MSCI Asian indexes and on an absolute basis.  Analysts’ recommendations are split as the shares trade at their target price.

• Write-downs at two regional banks follow the cockroaches of First Brands and Tricolor bankruptcies, and should not be dismissed as isolated idiosyncratic events.
• Overly accommodative monetary conditions are stimulating markets to incubate cockroach eggs that may spawn as private credit malinvestment in the next recession.
• It is too early for these eggs to hatch, aided by the warm support of further Fed rate cuts. So, risk assets will probably keep on rising in the void of economic data releases.

• Live and feeder cattle futures gapped lower on the open Friday, with some feeder cattle contracts touching even limit down – as panic selling hit the complex.
• The reason for the panic selling: president Trump.
• In an announcement on Thursday evening, Trump hinted that there could be a near-term deal reached to lower beef prices. How exactly such a deal would look like isn’t clear, though.

• US-China trade tensions have spiked again following new Chinese curbs on rare earth exports. President Trump wants a trade deal with China this year, but China will not capitulate.
• Rising US-China trade tensions come before the fourth plenum for the Chinese Communist Party that lays the foundations of the next five-year plan. Eradicating supply chain vulnerabilities will feature prominently
• Private capital will play a crucial role in fulfilling the next five-year plan, but the government needs to ensure there is a level playing field in competing with state-owned enterprises.

• Despite underlying bearish fundamentals, crude oil prices are currently finding a floor due to persistent geopolitical risks, creating a unique, range-bound market environment.
• We suggest a strategic approach to navigate this market, focusing on capitalizing on premium capture rather than new strong directional risks amidst conflicting market forces.
• While diplomatic efforts offer potential for de-escalation, the immediate outlook points to stabilized volatility, making specific non-directional strategies particularly attractive.

• The narrow U.S. market leadership presents fragility challenges for investors. 
• The economy is becoming increasingly dependent on the top 20% of consumers, and the market is dependent on Magnificent Seven and AI stocks to lead the market.
• While there are no signs that these trends are about to break, the market is overextended in the short run and can correct at any time.

• Active EM funds average +26.0% YTD, their strongest year since 2017, though still underperforming the benchmark by -1.8%. Fewer than 40% have outpaced the iShares MSCI EM ETF.
• Style and regional positioning drove dispersion. Value managers and South Korea exposure supported gains, while Aggressive Growth styles and India-heavy allocations weighed on returns. High Active Share strategies also trailed.
• Active EM outperformance remains consistent long-term. Active funds have beaten the benchmark in 14 of the past 22 years, with the ETF often ranking near the peer group median.

• The financial markets are not discounting the possibility of continued tensions in the Sino-American trade war.
• Both sides believe they have the upper hand, and each is growing more hawkish in its negotiation tactics.
• In addition, the election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s Prime Minister (Japan’s Iron Lady) opens the door to a renegotiation of the recently concluded U.S.-Japan trade deal.

• China: Monetary & Trade Indicators Strengthen: September data show broad-based monetary growth
• Korea: Early Signs of Trade Softness: The first 10 days of October show exports down 15% YoY, imports down 22.8%.
• India: Inflation Trends Favor Rate Cuts: Wholesale prices up just 0.1% YoY in September — a stark contrast to >10% in 2022 and flat in 2023.

• Losses on bad and fraudulent US loans raise the risk that more cockroaches will emerge, nourished by monetary policy stimulating asset prices outside of recessionary regimes.
• Market rates fell on this, while macro data didn’t offer direction as UK Q3 GDP kept tracking 0.2%, EA inflation was confirmed, and UK labour market data were mixed.
• Next week’s UK inflation data should reveal a rise, with the CPI reaching 4%. Delayed US CPI data will provide a rare signal more relevant to the Fed’s likely decision to cut.

• Inflation’s rise to a high 2.3% in September was confirmed in the final print, although some payback remains likely in October. We doubt it goes fully back to the target then.
• Underlying inflation metrics were broadly stable again at about 2.5%, with little progress in most statistical measures for over a year.
• There is little cause for alarm at this stage, so the ECB can keep waiting in a good place, but we still see a greater risk of hikes than cuts in 2026.

• Lawsuit /In Depth: Why Singapore Sovereign Fund Sues Chinese EV-Maker Nio
• Food safety /In Depth: Stinky Shrimp Sets Off Storm About School Lunches
• PPI /Analysis: China Tries to Lift Factory Prices, but Demand Is Still Missing

• Global oil demand growth remains Asia-led. However, surging non-OPEC supply and swelling inventories threaten price stability, even as China’s stockpiling and resilient consumption cushion downside pressure.
• EIA, OPEC, and IEA see diverging oil market paths, with non-OECD demand strong but excess supply, high inventories, and soft gas prices signalling a market leaning toward surplus.
• While Asia powers demand growth, mounting supply from the U.S. and OPEC+, and elevated inventories weigh on prices, keeping crude markets stable yet tilted bearish into 2026.

• Crude oil futures were lower Thursday as a sharp retreat in US crude runs unwound earlier gains stemming from US President Donald Trump’s claims he had persuaded India’s Prime Minister to halt purchases of Russian crude.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $61.18/b (2013 BST) versus Wednesday’s settle of $61.91/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $57.60/b against a previous close of $58.27/b.
• Trump said late Wednesday that Indian PM Narendra Modi had pledged to stop buying oil from Russia, while the President said he would seek a similar commitment from China.

• The EU plans to impose 25–50% duties on Chinese steel to protect domestic producers from cheap imports and high decarbonisation costs.
• Analysts expect China’s steel exports to reach 120 million tons, intensifying global overcapacity, pressuring margins, and prompting protectionist responses worldwide.
• EU tariffs on Chinese steel are unlikely to materially impact overall exports but function as strategic leverage, potentially reshaping flows and future negotiations.

• Iron ore futures recorded a weekly loss as renewed trade tensions and weak mill margins overshadowed a brief post-holiday demand recovery.
• Managed money participants increased their net long positions, reflecting continued confidence in the bullish outlook.
• Demand for higher-grade ore remains subdued as weak mill margins persist, keeping the 65%-62% spread under sustained downward pressure in the near term.

• Slight growth in August sustains an above trend level of activity and is tracking to a 0.2% q-o-q pace for Q3, matching our forecast and the consensus, but disappointing the BoE.
• The ongoing slowdown in service sector activity repeats residual seasonality that would leave a trough in two months, but there is slightly more resilience this year.
• Policymakers shouldn’t react to statistical noise, and are unlikely to amid ongoing excesses in underlying inflation that a stabilising labour market wouldn’t break.

• Ayako Takashi advocates for responsible expansionary fiscal policy, focusing on income distribution rather than aggressive fiscal expansion.
• Takashi’s comments on the relationship between the government and the Bank of Japan do not necessarily indicate clear intervention, but may put pressure on the central bank.
• The BOJ may need to deliver rate hikes every six months to combat elevated inflation, with market expectations of a terminal rate around 1%. Timing of rate hikes may be tricky, especially with fluctuating exchange rates.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Arrears / In Depth: Clearing Arrears to Businesses Tests Chinese Localities’ Resolve
• China-U.S. /: China Starts Levying Special Port Fee on U.S.-Linked Vessels
• Age /: China Relaxes Age Rule in Civil Service Exam to Address Aging Workforce

• India’s rubber output in April–July up 4.4% year-on-year.  
• Imports fall 7.4% as stocks deplete by 79,000 tons in 4 months  
• Domestic auto sector weakness tempers consumption

• Crude oil futures were slightly lower in late-day Wednesday trading after benchmarks settled at fresh five-month lows in the previous session, amid pressures from a growing oil surplus and global trade jitters.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $62.21/b (2012 BST) versus Tuesday’s settle of $62.39/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $58.55/b against a previous close of $58.70/b.
• Prices plummeted on Tuesday, wiping out early week gains, after the IEA trimmed its global oil demand growth forecast while upping its supply projection, in turn pushing markets into a deeper surplus this year and next.

• TOP STORIES Cobalt / In Depth: Congo’s Cobalt Controls Deepen Uncertainty for Chinese Miner It has been a rough year for the world’s largest cobalt producer.
• Shanghai-listed CMOC Group Ltd.
• ’s sales fell over 17% year-on-year in the second quarter, according to the miner’s earnings results.

• Global central banks are diverging in their monetary policies, with some easing rates while others, like Japan, maintain ultra-loose stances, creating unique market dynamics and potential for strategic plays.
• Anticipated convergence of short-term U.S. and Japanese interest rates through 2026 is expected to influence currency strength with expected cross asset implications in equities.
• Analysis of SOFR and US T-Note futures indicates potential for strategic positioning based on anticipated rate cycle acceleration and yield curve movements.

• Crude oil futures were under pressure again Tuesday despite an easing of tensions between the US and China, with benchmarks unable to hold early-week gains.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $62.53/b (2005 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $63.32/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $58.84/b against a previous close of $59.49/b.
• Prices were again testing multi-month lows, as short-term volatility persisted amid tariffs, sanctions and OPEC+ policy.

• During the second half of September, inflation stood at 0.02% biweekly, reflecting lower pressures in goods and agricultural products.
• As a result, annual inflation rose to 3.76%, signaling the fading of the favorable base effect observed in July.
• Typically, inflation for this period averages around 0.07% bw. 

• The Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) triennial survey highlights the continued expansion of global foreign exchange activity.
• The Mexican peso reaffirmed its relevance, ranking among the most actively traded currencies worldwide and consolidating its position as one of the leading currencies within emerging markets.
• According to the BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey on foreign exchange markets (April 2025), global FX trading volumes increased by 28% compared with the 2022 survey, reaching an average daily turnover of USD 9.6 trillion.

• In August, the unemployment rate rose to 2.93%, its highest level in a year, confirming that labor market conditions continue to weaken.
• The increase reflected both a decline in labor force participation and the loss of 1.3 million jobs.
• Typically, the unemployment rate for August stands around 2.75%. 

• Unemployment rate inched up to 5.2% in Sep 2025: PLFS
• US seeks changes in FDI policy for online market places
• Digital NBFCs dominate 80% of personal loan volumes in June 2025 quarter

• A meaningful recovery is still pending; soft conditions across most industries remain, with weather headwinds and FX impacting some companies.
• For yet another quarter, we forecast average margin contraction for our covered companies, a trend that seems to be lingering for the rest of the year.
• In Consumer, we are mostly lowering our PTs, -2% on a median basis, as we expect continued consumer softness in both Mexico and the U.S.; FX is expected to be less of a factor YoY. 

• Gross fixed investment rebounded by 1.6% MoM in July, supported by a strong increase in imported transportation equipment (+23.5% MoM), which suggests stronger external demand and the need to expand productive capacity amid the solid momentum of exports.
• In July, fixed investment grew 1.6% MoM, compared to our forecast of 0.9% MoM and the consensus estimate of 1.0% MoM.
• The machinery and equipment component expanded 4.9% MoM, with gains in both the national segment (+2.4% MoM) and the imported segment (+5.9% MoM). 

• Industrial activity continued to show signs of weakness, contracting -0.3% MoM in August and marking three consecutive months of decline.
• The slowdown was mainly driven by reduced momentum in construction due to lower civil engineering activity.
• The result was below our estimate of 0.5% MoM and the market consensus of 0.4% MoM. 

• Most narratives can find some support in the latest labour market report, preserving uncertainty that should keep the BoE on hold at least until some clarity emerges.
• Unemployment has increased (LFS) or stabilised (payrolls), while pay is shockingly resurgent (inc-bonuses), slowing as expected (ex-bonus) or stagnating (private pay).
• Weakness isn’t as clear as the consensus and press sometimes make out, but concerns aren’t invalidated. We still expect resilience to preserve excess inflation hawkishly.

• US base oils demand could be steadier amid rangebound prices and signs of more muted pressure from any surplus supply.
• US base oils demand typically rises in month of October from September, before falling in month of November.
• Demand could be lower than usual as buyers and distributors work down stocks built up as buffer against weather-related supply disruptions during Atlantic hurricane season.

• Crude oil futures opened the week slightly firmer as benchmarks recovered some of Friday’s steep losses, but markets are set to remain volatile amid renewed tariff threats between the US and China.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.32/b (1415 BST) versus Friday’s settle of $62.73/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $59.67/b against a previous close of $58.90/b.
• Crude prices plunged on Friday as part of a broad-based financial selloff following renewed trade tensions between Washington and Beijing after US President Trump threatened a “massive increase” in tariffs on Chinese goods, citing “hostile” export controls on critical minerals.

• Asia’s Group II base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil holds in narrow range.
• Firm gasoil premium to crude oil puts more pressure on refiners to trim light-grade supply rather than heavy grades, despite persistent surplus availability of heavy grades.
• Asia’s base oils supply-surplus could face more upward pressure over coming months, even with firmer gasoil premium to crude, amid lighter round of plant-maintenance and start-up of new base oils units.

• Asia Group I heavy-neutrals price falls vs ex-tank UAE price since early-August to widest discount in more than two years.
• Wider price-discount facilitates arbitrage to move surplus supplies from Asia to Middle East.
• Asia’s surplus Group I supplies rise amid pick-up in imports from other regions like Europe, as well as recovery in output in markets like Thailand after plant-maintenance work.

• Global base oils prices mostly hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices amid further drop in crude oil prices.
• Mostly-steady outright base oils prices and lower crude prices cushion impact of strong gasoil premium to crude oil.
• Strong gasoil crack-spread incentivizes any refinery moves to trim output levels to focus more on light grades than heavy grades.

• Production jumps 36.7% month-on-month  
• Exports surge, led by China demand  
• Smallholders face ageing and skills gap  

• MAS holds policy steady as Q3 GDP beats 2% consensus with 2.9% growth, core inflation at 0.5% for 2025.
• The central bank is less dovish on 2026 easing as the output gap stays positive through 2025, near zero in 2026.
• Tariff risks are contained as pharma exemptions are negotiated, and AI investments support manufacturing resilience.

• Asia’s base oils demand could stay more cautious as signs of healthy stocks and rising supplies curb urgency to buy.
• Any need to move surplus supplies to markets beyond Asia could put pressure on adjustment in prices to make those shipments more feasible.
• Any such moves, and the subsequent prospect of additional price-pressure, could add to attraction of procuring smaller volumes more frequently.

• US base oils prices remain in narrow range vs feedstock prices.
• Steady margins sustain incentive for refiners to maintain or raise output at time of year when demand typically starts to slow.
• Persistently-steady margins and increasingly squeezed stocks in first seven months of 2025 suggest fundamentals remain balanced even with incentive to maintain higher output.

• Tether has bought significant amounts of gold, acquiring 19 tonnes in the first half of the year
• Gold prices have surged, surpassing $4000 an ounce and hitting $6000 Australian dollars per ounce
• The market is seeing a shift towards gold as a safe haven asset amidst ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Gold and bitcoin are both scarce assets that are gaining renewed attention as investors seek resilience in their portfolios
• Gold has a long history as a store of value and tends to come into focus during uncertain times, while bitcoin is a newer digital asset with evolving investor access
• Factors such as economic growth, geopolitical risks, and interest rates can impact the attractiveness of gold and other non-yielding assets in a portfolio

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Tensions between China and the U.S. have increased. Last week’s tit-for-tat exchanges culminated with President Trump threatening China with higher tariff rates and a cancellation of his meeting with Xi.
• Trump’s Friday post on social media immediately caused U.S. markets to swoon with the S&P breaking support levels.  In a TACO trade moment, Trump reversed his harsh rhetoric on Sunday.
• Anyone can speculate on what the next few weeks will look like for markets, but we believe the market may start pricing in more long-term risk.

• Hype surrounding the benefits of artificial intelligence (AI) has increased in 2025, despite a slowing economy. While new economy sectors have contributed to growth,  not all is AI-related.
• There are valid comparisons between the current environment and the late 1990s surrounding hype about the beneficial impact of technological innovation on corporate performance. S&P500 leadership is priced to perfection.
• Current US equity leadership valuations are exposed to threats over the next 9 months, including stress in credit markets due to high bond issuance by companies in AI-related activity.

• Crude oil futures were sharply lower Friday, extending the previous session’s losses as oversupply fears and tariffs returned, while the Gaza ceasefire was seen eroding the risk premium.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $62.71/b (2003 BST) versus Thursday’s settle of $65.02/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $58.81/b against a previous close of $61.51/b.
• Thursday’s selloff had already wiped out most of the week’s steady gains amid a growing chorus flagging concerns over a significant oil surplus for this quarter and beyond, while additional losses Friday dragged benchmarks down to fresh four-month lows.

• Cocoa Update: Analysts say the retreat reflects a drop-off in consumer demand as a result of the higher prices, as well as expectations of a better crop given improved weather and higher state-guaranteed prices in West Africa.
• In addition, speculators who had previously been riding the rally have more recently dumped their positions, with many now betting on falling prices.
• Those supply fears have now started to ease.