Technical Analysis

• Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. 
• $116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.
• DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials

• Nvidia set a new record for the largest single one day loss of market cap, losing 700 billion on a 17% down move
• Market risk is about being wrongly sized and underestimating volatility, diversifying assets such as gold, Bitcoin, and broad market put spreads is recommended
• Financial market insurance is not like hurricane insurance, as exposures within markets are interconnected and risk can be amplified when positions are crowded

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• As discussed throughout January, we believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump’s prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared.
• We reiterated this in yesterday’s pre-market ETF Pathfinder (Feb.3), also noting “we anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved quickly, and we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity.”
• Sure enough, both Mexico and, later, Canada, came to an agreement with Trump to delay tariffs for 30 days. Short-term support remains at the prior 1-month downtrend on the SPX.

• DeepSeek appears to have turned the chatbot market upside-down, putting pressure on AI-linked stocks. The dust has yet to settle, but the selloff has been largely contained to AI-linked stocks.
• The rest of the market did not seem to care; the equal-weighted S&P 500 was roughly flat yesterday.
• Additionally, market dynamics remain healthy. Bottom line: as long as the S&P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our long-term outlook remains bullish.

• Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.
• Most recent/highest conviction “buy-the-dip” call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.
• Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength

• Rising DXY, Treasury yields, and now energy commodities breaking out (Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP and WTI crude oil) suggests upside is likely to be capped, but…
• …we still continue to see many other risk-on signals. As a result, we view this pullback as a buying opportunity, with all the major indexes testing/holding at support
• Looking for support on the S&P 500 at 5850, the 100-day MA (currently 5820), 5765-5770, and 5600-5670. As long as the S&P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our outlook remains bullish

• Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact. Actionable Themes today include Financials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary (European Luxury Retailers)
• We view this pullback as a buying opportunity and we are watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US; this is an important resistance-turned-support level dating back to July 2024.
• Europe and Japan are on the cusp of major breakouts above critical resistance levels of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX

• The Fed injected some volatility into the market after their December meeting, as they noted an uncertain inflation outlook and the SEP less expected rate cuts for 2025.
• We discussed in our latest report (12/23/24 ETF Pathfinder), and continue to believe, that this is a buying opportunity.
• Market dynamics remain risk-on, the SPX remains above 5850 (a key support level we have discussed since late-November), mid-caps (IJH) and small-caps (IWM) are above supports at $61.50 and $218

• Our outlook remains bullish and we see the market in the midst of a significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October.
• We continue to expect support at 20-day MAs on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), while support at current levels or the 50-day MA is likely on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
• Market dynamics continue to improve, giving us confidence that this bull run is likely to go at least another month into mid-January, and quite likely beyond.

• Mike Green explains how leveraged products on MSTR resemble a short straddle in their rebalancing requirements
• The two times leveraged long products, MSTU and MSTX, are unique due to their large size and underlying asset volatility, creating potential volume amplifying feedback loops
• The leveraged complex has contributed to the large premium of MSTR to the value of its bitcoin holdings, impacting ETFs forced to use options market due to limited leverage from swap providers

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.