Category

Technical Analysis

Jun 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

By Joe Jasper

  • We discussed in last week’s June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel’s TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
  • Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
  • As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).

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Jun 25
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: 20-Day MA Supports Holding on SPX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • 20-Day MA Supports Holding on SPX, QQQ, IWM; Bullish Outlook Intact

20-Day MA Supports Holding on SPX, QQQ, IWM; Bullish Outlook Intact

By Joe Jasper

  • The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) continue to hold above short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs (currently 5966 on SPX, $526.50 on QQQ, $208.75 on IWM)
  • As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact.
  • We will need to see breakdowns below 20-day MA supports in order to expect any meaningful near-term downside.

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Jun 18
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish

By Joe Jasper

  • We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
  • We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&P 500 (SPX) is above 5700-5785 (up from 5500).
  • We continue to be buyers in the 5700-5785 range, and we would also be buyers at 5804-5854 gap support. We are expecting all-time highs soon on SPX.

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Jun 04
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Gap Supports Holding; Expecting Test of All-Time Highs; Long-Term Treasury Yields Rolling Over? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Gap Supports Holding; Expecting Test of All-Time Highs; Long-Term Treasury Yields Rolling Over?

Gap Supports Holding; Expecting Test of All-Time Highs; Long-Term Treasury Yields Rolling Over?

By Joe Jasper

  • We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
  • We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&P 500 (SPX) is above 5500.
  • Our base case expectation is that SPX holds above short-term gap support at 5700-5785 (which is also where the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs all converge).

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May 29
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

By Joe Jasper

  • A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.
  • We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).
  • Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week’s Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.

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May 21
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR, HOOD, BTDR) And Quantum (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) Leading

Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR, HOOD, BTDR) And Quantum (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) Leading

By Joe Jasper

  • The market remains relentlessly strong, shrugging off the latest “bearish” headline regarding Moody’s U.S. debt downgrade on Friday.
  • This is exactly what we would expect to happen in a bull market, particularly during this “lockout rally,” and helps confirm our bullish outlook.
  • Our outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500, while short-term gap support is at 5700-5785. We expect a test of all-time highs soon.

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May 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

By Joe Jasper

  • As discussed for two weeks, we see more and more signs leading us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which was expected support from our 4/8/25 Compass.
  • We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass — when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support — but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well.
  • Our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500

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May 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Lockout Rally in Full Swing; Watching Resistance Levels But Stay Short-Term Bullish Above 20-DMA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Lockout Rally in Full Swing; Watching Resistance Levels But Stay Short-Term Bullish Above 20-DMA

Lockout Rally in Full Swing; Watching Resistance Levels But Stay Short-Term Bullish Above 20-DMA

By Joe Jasper

  • Continuing the trend from last week’s report (4/29/25), we are seeing more and more signs that lead us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, initially discussed 4/8/25.
  • As a result, we have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 report, when we noted SPX was testing 5100-5120 support, potential bounce spot and a level to trade long against.
  • While SPX is approaching short-term resistance levels and reducing risk is prudent, we remain short-term bullish if SPX is above its 20-day MA and 21-day EMA.

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May 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

By Joe Jasper

  • We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
  • Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int’l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish
  • 200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won’t.

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Apr 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

By Joe Jasper

  • Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term…
  • SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.
  • 5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.

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