Category

Technical Analysis

Nov 08
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Just Another Counter-Trend Rally and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More? DXY and Treasury Yields Breaking Key Supports

Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More? DXY and Treasury Yields Breaking Key Supports

By Joe Jasper

  • We believe there is significant evidence that the broad equity market has bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. This report elaborates on this main point
  • Last week (10/31/23) we discussed how the $SPX and $QQQ did not display decisive breakdowns, and that a break above 4165-4200 and $350-$355, respectively, would be bullish, that’s what happened
  • Additionally, we discussed how risk/reward favored buyers with the $IWM testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, a logical spot for small-caps to bounce, especially when we considering persistent bullish breadth divergences.

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Nov 04
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

By Joe Jasper

  • The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a “decisive” breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
  • On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
  • MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.

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Nov 01
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bullish Breadth Divergences Persist; Russell 2000 Testing 1.5-Year Support; Buys in Education Svcs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Breadth Divergences Persist; Russell 2000 Testing 1.5-Year Support; Buys in Education Svcs

Bullish Breadth Divergences Persist; Russell 2000 Testing 1.5-Year Support; Buys in Education Svcs

By Joe Jasper

  • The SPX is at 4165-4200 support, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is at $350-$355 support. No “decisive” breakdowns quite yet as supports show signs of holding.
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, making this a logical spot for small-caps to bounce and an attractive risk/reward for buyers
  • Continue to see signs of breadth possibly bottoming-out. Both the SPX and Russell 2000 and the % of stocks above their 50-day and 20-day MAs display bullish breadth divergences.

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Oct 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

By Joe Jasper

  • The MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) continues to test major support at $90.50-$91.50, though no decisive break yet; as long as this support area holds, we remain constructive on global equities.
  • MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to test $37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively
  • Remain overweight and add exposure to Japan; the TOPIX remains in a 1.5-year RS uptrend (vs. MSCI ACWI), and continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215

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Oct 25
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: S&P 500 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

By Joe Jasper

  • Equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish SPX trend.
  • Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is testing support at $350-$355 (the 4-month bull flag/falling wedge pattern). The Russell 2000 is also approaching 1+ year support at 1640.
  • Breakdowns would be our cue to get defensive, as it would likely lead to precipitous declines. However, if supports hold, this is where risk/reward is skewed in favor of buyers.

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Oct 18
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Russell 2000 With Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buys in Insurance and Health Care Distributors and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Russell 2000 With Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buys in Insurance and Health Care Distributors

Russell 2000 With Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buys in Insurance and Health Care Distributors

By Joe Jasper

  • Expectations since late-September remain unchanged; if $SPX is above 4165-4200/200-day MA, we’re bullish, as most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish trend in SPX.
  • As discussed last week (10/11/23), we have growing confidence that lows are likely in on the SPX, which made a low at 4216 (with 4200 hit exactly overnight 10/4/23).
  • We also discussed Russell 2000 breadth bottoming last week, and this has continued with bullish breadth divergences on Russell 2000 % of stocks above their 50- and 200-day MAs

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Oct 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

By Joe Jasper

  • We’ve discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it’s a normal pullback
  • Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).
  • The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.

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Oct 04
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; “Magnificent Seven” Supports to Watch and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; “Magnificent Seven” Supports to Watch

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; “Magnificent Seven” Supports to Watch

By Joe Jasper

  • As discussed in last week’s Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased 
  • Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.
  • We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers

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Sep 30
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
  • This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
  • We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare

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Sep 27
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

By Joe Jasper

  • We’ve expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.
  • Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields 
  • Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI

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