Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Dec 08
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Directionless Equities; As China Normalizes; Carvana Bankruptcy Imminent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Directionless Equities; As China Normalizes; Carvana Bankruptcy Imminent
  • Mining Monthly: November Edition

Good Morning Japan | Directionless Equities; As China Normalizes; Carvana Bankruptcy Imminent

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW TO KEEP ABREAST.
  • OVERSEAS:  SPX holding 100D; Trading in tight range at support; Focus on now recession risks; China continues to normalize around COVID; Microsoft tries to appease regulators; Carvana facing bankruptcy 
  • JAPAN: NKY futs -0.4% vs cash;  USDJPY ¥136.5;  Quiet ahead of major SQ; ANA  hiring again;  KEPCO set to restart Genkai; Hitachi canxl treasury shares; Nintendo strikes deal  with MSFT

Mining Monthly: November Edition

By Atrium Research

  • Producers, developers, and explorers continue to trade at low multiples.
  • These low multiples make for great buying opportunities; there are plenty of standout winners despite the weak performance
  • We anticipate the number of bankruptcies to rise as companies struggle to raise funds and treasuries dwindle

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Dec 07
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Recession Fears (Again) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Recession Fears (Again)
  • Market Strategy – A New Base Case as China Is Finally Rescuing Itself

Good Morning Japan | Recession Fears (Again)

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW TO KEEP ABREAST.
  • OVERSEAS:  Recession fears reassert,  10/11 SPX sectors in red; Wall street to cut staff; Pepsi cutting staff; Oil making lows; TSMC to lift Arizona Spend to $40bn
  • JAPAN: Futs indicate -0.8% for NKY cash; Amazing NKY recovery yesterday – we have no clue; Japan consumers spending; Decarbonization spend accelerating; DX too; Kyowa Kirin product failure

Market Strategy – A New Base Case as China Is Finally Rescuing Itself

By China Tonghai Securities Research

  • As we highlighted in a separate note published today, there are moves in easing of Covid-policy in cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai over the weekend scrapping the requirement for commuters to present PCR test results to travel on public transport, following similar moves by Tianjin, Chengdu, and Chongqing.
  • People in Beijing, Guzhou, Zhejiang province, and other cities could buy drugs to ease coronavirus symptoms without real-name registration.
  • We believe these are precursors to further relaxation and opening of China.

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Dec 06
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Smoking Hot Services PMI Sinks Equities; WCup: Japan Out on Penalties and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Smoking Hot Services PMI Sinks Equities; WCup: Japan Out on Penalties
  • Uranium: Asymmetry at its Finest

Good Morning Japan | Smoking Hot Services PMI Sinks Equities; WCup: Japan Out on Penalties

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW/LIKE TO KEEP ABREAST.
  • OVERSEAS: Service PMI print sinks equities;  China: Green shoots continue to emerge with COVID policy; SPAC market unravelling; TESLA refutes China production cut news
  • JAPAN: Out on Penalities- Samurai Blues exit the WCup; Markets: NKY Futs -0.5% vs Cash, USDJPY down to ¥136;  Rating Changes: U/G to Kuraray, NTN;  D/G to Softbank, Takeuchi

Uranium: Asymmetry at its Finest

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: We are expecting demand for uranium to scale upward over the next 5+ years due to decarbonization and energy security trends
  • Limited brownfield projects and the lack of incentive for greenfield projects at $50/lb U3O8 will create a supply/demand imbalance
  • The new utility contracting cycle and Sprott Trust will continue to create price momentum for spot uranium While demand for uranium continues to progress higher due to shifting government policies to meet decarbonization goals and the newfound focus on energy independence, spot prices remain too low to incentivize new production.

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Dec 05
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Fed Raised Hopes-Dashed by Jobs but PMI Supportive and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Fed Raised Hopes-Dashed by Jobs but PMI Supportive
  • Japan Weekly | 3 Growth Stocks to Buy on the Dip
  • The Innovation Portfolios – Week 2
  • China to End Zero COVID Policy? – Reexamine the Reopening Timeline and Potential Impact

Good Morning Japan | Fed Raised Hopes-Dashed by Jobs but PMI Supportive

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW TO KEEP ABREAST.
  • OVERSEAS: STRONG Jobs numbers- dent in Fed pivot narrative; BUT Nov Manuf PMI supportive w/Contraction; SPX -0.1%, intraday-Lower left upper right day; Big airplane UAL order for BA.
  • JAPAN: Focus: WCup. JP vs Croatia tonight;  USDJPY 134 handle; Energy security: Govt wants LNG reserves+New plants; Weak Nov retail numbers; Retailer Nojima blazing the trail with +6% wage hike

Japan Weekly | 3 Growth Stocks to Buy on the Dip

By Mark Chadwick

  • After leading the market higher in 2021, growth stocks have significantly underperformed over the past 12 months. 
  • Valuations may not yet have reached rock bottom levels and all these 3 stocks still trade at a premium to our universe of 14x PE
  • These 3 stocks all have strong long-terms structural drivers that make buying on the dip attractive for patient investors

The Innovation Portfolios – Week 2

By Pyari Menon

China to End Zero COVID Policy? – Reexamine the Reopening Timeline and Potential Impact

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The latest press conference has many statements that appeared publicly for the first time or were rarely used before,which reflected the intention to pave the way for the tone change.
  • We don’t expect there would be an official announcement stating clearly “ending the Zero COVID policy”, but policy adjustments would be made accordingly. The reopening timeline could be brought forward.
  • The economic problem is not simply caused by the pandemic, which is just the last straw to topple the dominoes. We analyzed the impact of reopening and investment opportunities. 

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Dec 04
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEM Weekly (2 Dec 2022): China RRR and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • GEM Weekly (2 Dec 2022): China RRR, Asian PMI Data, India GDP; Baidu, TSMC

GEM Weekly (2 Dec 2022): China RRR, Asian PMI Data, India GDP; Baidu, TSMC

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The Global Emerging Markets weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
  • Macro data points: Chinese RRR and PMI data, Indian GDP growth, Asian PMI data
  • Companies mentioned:Baidu (9888 HK), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

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Dec 03
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Is Bank Loan Growth to Industry Really Robust? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Is Bank Loan Growth to Industry Really Robust?

Is Bank Loan Growth to Industry Really Robust?

By Hemindra Hazari

  • After years of stagnation Indian banks reporting a revival in loan growth to companies
  • Although there is a spurt in loan growth as compared with the past 3 years, the issue is whether such a growth rate will be sustained.
  • Loan growth to companies must be viewed in the context of Wholesale Price Index inflation (especially in input prices) and what activities banks are financing

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Stocks Holds Gains Head of Jobs; Samurai Blues – Giant Killers (Again !) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Stocks Holds Gains Head of Jobs; Samurai Blues – Giant Killers (Again !)
  • Covid Lockdowns Set to Snap China’s Car Sales Winning Streak
  • China’s Property Support Seen as Helping State-Owned, Quality Private Developers

Good Morning Japan | Stocks Holds Gains Head of Jobs; Samurai Blues – Giant Killers (Again !)

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US TO KEEP ABREAST.
  • OVERSEAS: Stocks consolidated ahead of Jobs; UST yeild down, USD weaker; Fed’s favorite inflation indicator slows; China showing COVID-19 flexibility; TESLA delivers 1st Semi Truck
  • JAPAN: World Cup: Samurai Blues slay another European giant defeating Spain.  This is the news in Japan today; Foreigners are now buyers in Japan; KDDI hooks up with Starlink

Covid Lockdowns Set to Snap China’s Car Sales Winning Streak

By Caixin Global

  • Factory sales to distributors of passenger cars in China, the world’s largest automobile market, are on track to decline in November
  • Retail sales of passenger cars also fell during the first twenty days of November, dropping 4% year-on-year to 859,000 units, according to the association
  • Last month, factory sales of passenger cars rose 11% year-on-year, extending a deceleration from June when growth hit 42.3% due to easing of Covid outbreaks and government tax benefits

China’s Property Support Seen as Helping State-Owned, Quality Private Developers

By Caixin Global

  • China’s latest helping hand to the property market is expected to benefit state-owned and quality private developers.
  • Allowing developers to raise money on the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong stock markets could help firms get their hands on fresh cash and acquire assets from their peers that have defaulted
  • The new measures, announced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) in a Monday Q&A, allow such share sales for purposes including debt repayments and acquisitions

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Dec 01
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Powell: “Pace of Hikes to Moderate in Dec; Landing Plausible”; Equities Rip and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Powell: “Pace of Hikes to Moderate in Dec; Landing Plausible”; Equities Rip
  • The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 41
  • The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 39

Good Morning Japan | Powell: “Pace of Hikes to Moderate in Dec; Landing Plausible”; Equities Rip

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US TO KEEP ABREAST.
  • OVERSEAS: To Dog Powell confirms 50bps at the next Fed meeting;  Equities rip as it as a “no stock left behind day”; China COVID sentiment continues to improve. 
  • JAPAN: NKY to add 1-2% today; Yen at 130/USD; Eisai says the 2 deaths not due to their drug-positive; Shippers continue to diversify-MOL goes into Real Estate.

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 41

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
  • Six stocks remain, and eight stocks added to our portfolio
  • Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 177% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 25%

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 39

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
  • Eight stock remains, and six stocks added to our portfolio
  • Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 96% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 48%

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Nov 30
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Full Circulation 2022 Update: China Huarong and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Full Circulation 2022 Update: China Huarong, YiChang HEC ChangJiang
  • Good Morning Japan | Powell in Focus: Big Bets off the Table
  • China NEV Outlook: Life After Subsidies Is Still Beautiful
  • Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 3Q2022
  • Asia Gaming: Macau Renews 6 Concessionaires Licenses Building a Bull Catalyst into Sector Stocks

Full Circulation 2022 Update: China Huarong, YiChang HEC ChangJiang

By David Blennerhassett

  • To date, 52 companies listed in Hong Kong have sought the conversion of their PRC domestic (and unlisted foreign shares) into H-shares.
  • This mechanism, ostensibly, enables founders or major shareholders holding unlisted domestic shares to float (and sell) shares, improving a company’s corporate governance and stock liquidity, ultimately increasing a company’s valuation.
  • Or in the case of China Huarong Asset Management (2799 HK), the conversion restored its minimum public float.

Good Morning Japan | Powell in Focus: Big Bets off the Table

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW/LIKE TO KEEP ABREAST.
  • OVERSEAS: Powell in focus – little risk appetite; Semi 2023 forecast; China to vaccinate seniors – drives China-listed rally; iPhone Production hit up to ~$8bn;
  • JAPAN: USDJPY ¥138.69; NKY Fut -0.2% ahead of Powell speech; JGB 10Y hit 0.25%-BOJ shift soon ?; Sony =>the Metaverse; JP Bank invests ¥100bn in start-ups; Nomura cuts costs

China NEV Outlook: Life After Subsidies Is Still Beautiful

By Victoria Li

  • Despite the remaining EV subsidies finishing next year, we expect demand to be relatively unimpacted
  • Battery supply issues should be eased with Covid lockdowns easing and new capacity expansions
  • >100 new models due for launch in 2023E vs ~70 in 2022 and will keep potential customers and market excited in the sector

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 3Q2022

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +12.8%y/y for 3Q22-to-date, a significant slowdown from what was reported for 2Q22.
  • 60% of companies delivered positive sales surprise, same as in 2Q22, whilst 65% delivered positive EPS surprise, up from 56% in 2Q22.
  • Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.

Asia Gaming: Macau Renews 6 Concessionaires Licenses Building a Bull Catalyst into Sector Stocks

By Howard J Klein

  • Lingering bearish speculation about Beijing pressures for Macau to oust US based gaming operators proved wrong. All were renewed.
  • Genting’s last minute wild card application was rejected indicating Macau has opted for long term stability with existing operators.
  • One major headwind remains: China’s travel bans with no duration predictable despite growing public unrest due to growing damage to macro economy and public income streams.

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Nov 29
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Coordinated Fed “Attack” Tanks Markets; Compounds China Woes and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Coordinated Fed “Attack” Tanks Markets; Compounds China Woes
  • 2023 High Conviction: Semiconductor Down Market
  • EM Digital Banks Review – Inter and Bank Jago in the Negative Spotlight

Good Morning Japan | Coordinated Fed “Attack” Tanks Markets; Compounds China Woes

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast.
  • OVERSEAS:  Coordinated Fed attack on sentiment tanks market; China locks continues to weigh in; MSFT-Activision-still in play; Aggressive EU taxes on big tobacco
  • JAPAN: BOJ takes hit on Bonds; Sony good news – MSFT+Apple; Notable broker downgrades across Autos (Nissan; Subaru) and Softbank; Regulators collusion clamp down on  Japan Advertising firms; Eisai/Biogen -ve

2023 High Conviction: Semiconductor Down Market

By Jim Handy

  • The current semiconductor market meltdown can be expected to continue through the end of 2024
  • This will reduce 2022 market growth to 5%, and will drive a decline of 19% in 2023
  • Stocks will be unevenly influenced by this, with the most dramatic declines hitting makers of volume commodities, smaller declines in differentiated products, and a weak impact on older technology products.

EM Digital Banks Review – Inter and Bank Jago in the Negative Spotlight

By Victor Galliano

  • Among the EM digital banks covered, we remain negative on Inter and continue to see Bank Jago as an over-valued growth play; we are neutral on Nubank and Kakaobank
  • Client penetration is improving, yet digital banks, with the exception of Nubank, need to achieve better product penetration to enhance digital efficiency and better leverage off their lower cost bases
  • Neobanks’ other key hurdles to enhanced profitability are delinquency and cost of risk charges along with increased regulatory risk; high capital absorption from fast loan growth is another investor concern

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