Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Nov 29
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Coordinated Fed “Attack” Tanks Markets; Compounds China Woes and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Coordinated Fed “Attack” Tanks Markets; Compounds China Woes
  • 2023 High Conviction: Semiconductor Down Market
  • EM Digital Banks Review – Inter and Bank Jago in the Negative Spotlight

Good Morning Japan | Coordinated Fed “Attack” Tanks Markets; Compounds China Woes

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast.
  • OVERSEAS:  Coordinated Fed attack on sentiment tanks market; China locks continues to weigh in; MSFT-Activision-still in play; Aggressive EU taxes on big tobacco
  • JAPAN: BOJ takes hit on Bonds; Sony good news – MSFT+Apple; Notable broker downgrades across Autos (Nissan; Subaru) and Softbank; Regulators collusion clamp down on  Japan Advertising firms; Eisai/Biogen -ve

2023 High Conviction: Semiconductor Down Market

By Jim Handy

  • The current semiconductor market meltdown can be expected to continue through the end of 2024
  • This will reduce 2022 market growth to 5%, and will drive a decline of 19% in 2023
  • Stocks will be unevenly influenced by this, with the most dramatic declines hitting makers of volume commodities, smaller declines in differentiated products, and a weak impact on older technology products.

EM Digital Banks Review – Inter and Bank Jago in the Negative Spotlight

By Victor Galliano

  • Among the EM digital banks covered, we remain negative on Inter and continue to see Bank Jago as an over-valued growth play; we are neutral on Nubank and Kakaobank
  • Client penetration is improving, yet digital banks, with the exception of Nubank, need to achieve better product penetration to enhance digital efficiency and better leverage off their lower cost bases
  • Neobanks’ other key hurdles to enhanced profitability are delinquency and cost of risk charges along with increased regulatory risk; high capital absorption from fast loan growth is another investor concern

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Nov 28
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Samurai Blues and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Samurai Blues
  • SSG- The Most Important Metric in Retailing
  • How the Portfolios Did for the First Week

Good Morning Japan | Samurai Blues

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast
  • OVERSEAS: Holidays last week – low liquidity, stocks+bonds higher, USD lower; This week: deluge of data with Employment key; MSFT-Activision deal in doubt; Apple production headwinds; China COVID unrest spreads
  • JAPAN: SHOCK !  Samurai Blues lost 0-1 to Costa Rica – A nation in pain;   Kishida support continues to wane; EPCO collusion fines;  Earnings pressure ahead for Shippers.

SSG- The Most Important Metric in Retailing

By Private Investor

  • Retailing is a straight forward business model wherein growth is primarily driven by continuous addition of new stores.
  • And the ability to add new stores is dependent on two key aspects- 1. Retailer’s Right To Win Proposition to add new stores makes sense only when the retailer can generate revenues from the new store.
  • And this revenue generation from new stores is dependent on the demand of end products and what value one is providing to its customers to capture a part of that demand.

How the Portfolios Did for the First Week

By Pyari Menon

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Nov 27
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Quick and Simple Charts and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Quick and Simple Charts
  • China Personal Pension System: About Time
  • GEM Weekly (25 Nov 2022): South Korea Rates, Thailand GDP; Samsung Electronics, Ant, Foxconn, Kakao

Japan Weekly | Quick and Simple Charts

By Mark Chadwick

  • With a national holiday in Japan on Wednesday, followed by Thanksgiving in the US, the markets have been relatively quiet this week
  • Maybe traders are too busy watching the World Cup – good news for the stock price of HUB (3030), the English pub-chain
  • We highlight those stocks on our radar that are overbought/sold, cheap and expensive

China Personal Pension System: About Time

By David Blennerhassett

  • China’s banking and insurance regulator announced this week the first batch of insurance products available for consumers to purchase under the country’s newly launched personal pension system.
  • The first seven insurance products are to be provided by four life insurers and two pension insurance companies.
  • Separately, the CBIRC issued final regulations to insurance companies that wish to sell retirement savings products.

GEM Weekly (25 Nov 2022): South Korea Rates, Thailand GDP; Samsung Electronics, Ant, Foxconn, Kakao

By Wium Malan, CFA

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Nov 25
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): APAC Healthcare Series (Part 4)- Japan Continues to Be in a Sweet Spot; Top Picks Quarterly Update and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • APAC Healthcare Series (Part 4)- Japan Continues to Be in a Sweet Spot; Top Picks Quarterly Update
  • Good Morning Japan | US Thanksgiving but Rally Continues in Europe
  • Airlines Complete Only 70% of Planned International China Flights
  • China Proposes Tougher Restrictions on Unfair Digital Competition

APAC Healthcare Series (Part 4)- Japan Continues to Be in a Sweet Spot; Top Picks Quarterly Update

By Tina Banerjee

  • In terms of geography, Japan is still our top pick, primarily due to attractive multiple, favorable Fx, and low leverage. Despite macroeconomic headwinds, Australia biotech is another area of interest.
  • Among our four top picks, Gland Pharma reported year-over-year decline across all parameters during Q2FY23 due to supply woes. Near-term outlook is uncertain.
  • Apollo Hospitals reported strong quarterly performance, with all operating parameters improving year-over-year. Olympus remained a prime beneficiary of weak yen, while Samsung Biologics’ robust order book entail visibility.

Good Morning Japan | US Thanksgiving but Rally Continues in Europe

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan.  FOLLOW US to keep abreast!
  • OVERSEAS: US Thanksgiving holidays;  US out but rally continues: STOXX Europe 600  +0.46%;  US Equity Futs +0.26%;  China Covid #s hit record high ; Rare China covid protest; Twitter Amnesty
  • JAPAN: NISA 2x expansion to ¥56trn targeted;  START UPS: Govt tgts 100k start-ups/ ¥10trn investments; EV: Aisin Seiki expanding E-Axle production; NINTENDO: Pokemon hits 10m sales

Airlines Complete Only 70% of Planned International China Flights

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese and global airlines completed only 70% of their planned international flights to China in the three weeks through Monday, signaling that recent easing of some inbound travel restrictions didn’t boost travel demand.
  • From Oct. 30 to Nov. 21, 3,595 international flights reached Chinese cities, including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.
  • Although that was up from the same period last year, the total was still just 6% of the pre-pandemic level in 2019.

China Proposes Tougher Restrictions on Unfair Digital Competition

By Caixin Global

  • China is revising a law to make illegal certain notorious practices by large internet platforms such as Alibaba, Tencent and JD.com.

  • The move is another regulatory response to big tech companies’ use of market dominance and advanced technology to undermine competition.

  • Notable changes in the latest revision are mostly related to the digital economy, adding violations and toughening penalties.

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Nov 24
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Dovish Fed+ Strong US Earnings = Catch up Time Japan and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Dovish Fed+ Strong US Earnings = Catch up Time Japan
  • China Personal Pension Scheme – Standing at the Starting Point of A-Share Bull Market
  • Asia Gaming: Macau Sector Post Covid Valuations Will Rise Despite Demanding New Govenment Mandates

Good Morning Japan | Dovish Fed+ Strong US Earnings = Catch up Time Japan

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast.
  • OVERSEAS: SPX rallies on signs of FED hike pace slowing; Strong US retail earnings lift sentiment; China locks downs  AGAIN- Long road ahead; HP cuts 10% of workforce-PC weakness
  • WCup: Japan 2-Germany 1 ! BANZAI!  NKY Catch time.. +2% day?; Mazda splashes out ¥1.5b EVs; Toyota Dec prod plans weak; -ve Chugai’s Hemlilbra on imminent approval of competing product

China Personal Pension Scheme – Standing at the Starting Point of A-Share Bull Market

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China recently rolled out a detailed implementation plan for personal pension, mainly due to an increasingly pressure of supporting old people caused by the more serious aging problem in China.
  • The entry of personal pensions is expected to greatly promote the prosperity and development of China’s capital market and improve the stability of A-share.
  • We analyzed potential investment opportunities as a result of this evolving development. Investors can consider preemptive layout before the end of Fed’s rate hike.

Asia Gaming: Macau Sector Post Covid Valuations Will Rise Despite Demanding New Govenment Mandates

By Howard J Klein

  • Officials have set long term goals for casinos to get 60% of revenue from non-gaming and 40% from gaming. It is unrealistic, but concessionaires are investing to move toward it.
  • New ten-year licenses terms will meet forward capex goals. Increased competition from ASEAN nation casinos may impair revenue growth if Beijing/Macau attitudes remain adamant.
  • We are weeks away from final awarding of re-concession licensing and regulations that will form the shape of the new Macau. 

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Nov 23
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): UK Energy: Investors Split as Tentative Rotation Begins and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • UK Energy: Investors Split as Tentative Rotation Begins

UK Energy: Investors Split as Tentative Rotation Begins

By Steven Holden

  • UK Energy is still under-owned.  22.1% of UK managers have zero exposure and 67.4% are positioned underweight.
  • Signs of a rotation are under way, driven by Value and Yield funds and mainly in Shell PLC and BP PLC.  
  • Missing from the picture is the return of Growth and Aggressive Growth managers, who remain lightly positioned and clearly unconvinced by the investment case at present. 

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Nov 22
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Holiday Blues – More of the Same and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Holiday Blues – More of the Same
  • Portfolios Built Based on Innovation Score by Datamining Technical Publications

Good Morning Japan | Holiday Blues – More of the Same

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast
  • OVERSEAS.  Equity markets consoldiate – with strong Technical support ahead of holidays; Mometum over Beta/Growth; Defensives lead;  Oil market confusion; Disney mgmt coup
  • JAPAN. Quiet Start; Yen weaker at ¥142/USD;  Ahead of holiday’s tomorrow(and US Thanksgiving), expect low volumes and little px movement;  Buffet bullish Japanese Traders; Broker initiations on Kajima(BUY); Shimizu(SELL)

Portfolios Built Based on Innovation Score by Datamining Technical Publications

By Pyari Menon

  • We built a large cap, a mid cap and a small cap portfolio of twenty stocks each. The constituents are based on how technical publications score and rank their innovations 
  • Only algo driven scores were considered to pick the stocks. Metrics like sales and profit growth, cashflow, leverage, returns, margins, valuations, estimates, news flow, price momentum were NOT considered
  • The portfolios are market cap weighted. We avoided including the mega caps Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Google, due to the significant skew their weights will have on the portfolio

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Nov 21
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Shifting Sentiments but Bullish Price Action and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Shifting Sentiments but Bullish Price Action
  • China Private Education: A Massive Comeback?
  • Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 11/21

Good Morning Japan | Shifting Sentiments but Bullish Price Action

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast!
  • OVERNIGHT.  Trump is back on Twitter ! Sentiment mixed on Fed Pivot -bulls still in charge – market underweight equities; Things not as bad in TECH; Thanksgiving =consumer stock volatility
  • JAPAN. NKY to open flat; Yen stable;  PM Kishida in danger of the sack ? Not yet; Inflation approaching BOJ’s 2% tgt – still need wages to rise

China Private Education: A Massive Comeback?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The sharp rally of China’s higher education stocks on 18 Nov reflects positive sentiment from announcement of “Implementation Plan for the Project of Reaching the Standards for Running Vocational Schools”.
  • For China Education Group (839 HK), potential resumption of dividend will be a driver. The 48% increase in 2022/23 registered students and 10pp utilisation growth have secured FY23 outlook.  
  • CEG’s premium valuations are justified by execution capability, asset quality and earnings outlook. FY23 consensus forecasts are just too low and upgrades will be positive catalysts.

Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 11/21

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

  • One useful way of finding emerging trends and potential market leadership is by spotting divergences in sectors, companies, and indexes.
  • Alternatively, spotting negative divergences can be useful to identify when existing trends are reversing or about to reverse judged solely by the observed price action.
  • Divergences can often give helpful clues of new market leadership which then can be confirmed by technical charts and especially volume or accumulation signs.

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Nov 20
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEM Weekly (18 Nov 2022): Chinese Macro and House Prices; Alibaba and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • GEM Weekly (18 Nov 2022): Chinese Macro and House Prices; Alibaba, TSMC, Tencent, Meituan, NetEase
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.18) – Central Investment Budget, Anesthetic Drugs, Insomniacs Demand

GEM Weekly (18 Nov 2022): Chinese Macro and House Prices; Alibaba, TSMC, Tencent, Meituan, NetEase

By Wium Malan, CFA

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.18) – Central Investment Budget, Anesthetic Drugs, Insomniacs Demand

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The government issued a central infrastructure investment budget of RMB26.52 billion in healthcare sector for 2022. Related leading domestic manufacturers would maintain relatively stable growth in the next 2-3 years.
  • Behind the wave of import substitution of endoscopes, the demand for anesthetic drugs would also increase, which are not affected by VBP. We think this market deserves investors’ attention.
  • Considering the large number of insomniacs, the resulting demand for treatment makes the insomniacs market show a good growth prospect.

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Nov 19
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Asics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Asics, Matsukiyo, Nexon
  • There Has Never Been a Better Time to Open an ISA for UK Residents

Japan Weekly | Asics, Matsukiyo, Nexon

By Mark Chadwick

  • After a bullish week for Japanese equities last week, this week was a bit blah. The average return for our watchlist was -0.3%, with 57 of 120 registering a gain
  • Over the past one month, the yen has gained 10-big figures against the dollar and the NKY has gained 3%
  • Japanese inflation at 40-year high; Kishida meets Xi; Visitors to Japan tops 500k in October; & corporate tax may be hiked to fund defense spending

There Has Never Been a Better Time to Open an ISA for UK Residents

By Investment Talk

  • As I sit at my desk this morning, which is situated behind a window that looks out onto Edinburgh’s cobbled streets, I can see the pattering of rain as it falls into puddles which were formed earlier in the day.
  • I look up at the sky and it is grey. In fact, the entire city, as it usually does this time of year, has an unremarkable grey hue.
  • The landscape that I view before me in the early hours of this Friday invokes a remarkably similar feeling to that which I get when thinking about the UK’s economy.

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