Thematic (Sector/Industry)

• U.S. stocks surged Monday as easing trade tensions with China fuelled a broad market rally; Dow up 1,160 points
• Denso will sell 73.9 million shares of Renesas Electronics, reducing its stake from 4.2% to 0.1%
• Nissan Motor plans to cut 20,000 jobs globally, increasing from a prior 9,000, reducing its 130,000-strong workforce by 15%

• Recent positive Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) inflows into the Indian equity markets may prove short-lived, as a confluence of emerging risks and unattractive relative returns could dampen foreign investor appetite.
• While April-May 2025 saw a modest US$0.5 billion in FII inflows, this followed a significant US$13.5 billion outflow during January-March 2025. 
• Nifty’s recent 12% rally since March 2025 leaves only a 2% upside to its year-end target of 25,000. This limited potential return is a key deterrent for FIIs.

• Kaiser Kuo hosts the Seneca Podcast, focusing on US-China relations, Chinese macroeconomy, technology, and culture
• Discussion on tech innovation in China and the process of directing talent towards more serious tech projects
• Cultural differences in approach to technology between Americans and Chinese discussed

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• Positive US-China talks and the de-escalation of tariffs signal a major softening by both sides.
• Expect momentum favourites to continue climbing as risk-on greenlights CTA factor buying.
• US Pharma rebounded with Trump executive order seen as toothless and vague.

• Pvr Inox (PVRINOX IN) reports wider Q4 loss due to weak film releases, urban spending slowdown, and decline in audience turnout.
• Indusind Bank (IIB IN) faces scrutiny over derivative accounting discrepancy, with auditors questioning if it should be classified as fraud.
• Shares of China+1 stocks, including Dixon Technologies India Ltd (DIXON IN) , Welspun, and SRF Ltd (SRF IN) , dip after US-China trade deal reduces tariff uncertainty.

• In the last week of April, US banks saw USD22bn higher ‘loans to non-depository financial institutions. Much of this will be C&I through private credit.
• Total cash holdings moved down in the same week from USD3,240bn to USD3,072bn, marking a significant delta in risk aversion – toward risk, not away.
• Deposits are still high at USD18,058bn which can move back into markets, where non-large time deposits appear to be doing this, over month of April

• Stocks were generally flat and rangebound as investors awaited key U.S.-China trade talks in Switzerland
• Fuji Oil has cancelled its planned production of recycled aviation fuel (SAF) due to soaring construction costs for production facilities and rising prices of waste cooking oil
• Nissan Motor  has scrapped plans for its first electric vehicle battery plant in Japan due to poor financial performance, deeming the significant investment unfeasible

• Power/Analog semi names were buoyed by Microchip Tech comments for a downcycle inflection.
• JP Heavies MHI and KHI both failed to impress on Friday, but MHI may see interest on news for possible jet export.
• Trump looking to cut pharma costs by 30-80% will add to the uncertainty for JP pharma with high medicare and medicaid exposure.

• Auto & Industrial Semi long boom / bust cycle started during Covid (peak demand) and is ending soon. Revenues declined by -20%. Operating Profits are depressed, down -50% from peak.   
• Industry structure, high fragmentation, low transparency led to a protracted and steep bottom. But inventories remain high. The recovery will take time, probably no YoY revenue growth till 2026.   
• Two big restructuring are underway, the sector is rationalizing. Lofty expectations of “structural growth” (EV, ADAS, green energy growth) hit the wall of a disappointing reality amplified by trade wars.

• SGX Iron Ore Futures rose $2.45/ton WoW to $98.30/ton, supported by stimulus hopes and US-China trade talks, before facing resistance near the upper Bollinger Band.
• Prices remain below major moving averages despite a bullish MACD crossover, with a recent death cross and RSI at 46.83 indicating mixed momentum and limited upside.
• Managed Money increased net short positions, while Physicals turned net long; total futures and options open interest dropped 11.14% WoW, signaling reduced overall market participation.

• Grant Thornton’s forensic review finds IndusInd Bank executives traded shares before public disclosure of accounting lapses, raising insider trading concerns.
• Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN) plans to streamline its portfolio, focus on e-commerce and quick-commerce, and explore M&A in health and wellness.
• Vijay Shekhar Sharma, Paytm (PAYTM IN) founder, banned for three years from receiving Esops; settles Sebi case with penalties.

• Shionogi is acquiring Torii Pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical business of Japan Tobacco. Daiichi Sankyo’s Enhertu meets main goal in the neoadjuvant setting (before surgery) in early-stage breast cancer trial.
• HK inno.N received approval for the domestic phase 3 clinical trial of obesity drug candidate. Neuren Pharmaceuticals’ Daybue recorded $84.6M revenue in the U.S. in 1Q25, up 11% YoY.
• Biocon secured multiple market access agreements for Yesintek, its biosimilar to Stelara. Lupin received FDA approval for antiretroviral agent raltegravir tablets for the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1) infection.

• The India-UK FTA, signed on May 6, 2025, provides Indian textile exports with zero-duty access to 99% of their products, removing tariffs as high as 12%.
• This landmark deal offers a substantial opportunity to increase India’s market share in the $19.7 billion UK apparel market and boosts competitiveness against Bangladesh and China.
• With enhanced pricing power, Indian textile companies like KPR Mill (KPR IN), Welspun India (WLSI IN), and S.P. Apparels (SPAL IN) are well-positioned to scale, increasing their export share.

• Japanese equities advanced in a holiday-shortened week, buoyed by global risk-on sentiment and a weaker yen
• Strangely, Services PMI rose to 52.4 in April, showing continued expansion with stronger new orders despite falling business confidence and other lead indicators
• NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)  stock surged +41% this week following the announcement that parent company NTT will launch a tender offer to acquire all remaining shares

• AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: ~12 mbbl/d in 1Q25.
• Re-iterating FY25 guidance – 1Q25 production was ~12 mbbl/d, including 6,841 bbl/d in Gabon, 3,661 bbl/d in Equatorial Guinea and 1,492 bbl/d in Tunisia.
• Production in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea was previously reported by BW Energy and Kosmos Energy.

• BIDU US: Baidu Apollo Partners with CAR Inc to Pioneer Autonomous Ride-Hailing in Tourism Hubs (+)
• JD US: JD.com Launches Unlimited-Salary Tech Talent Program to Rival Google DeepMind (-)
• PDD US : Slight Increase in Technology Service Fees (+)

• Economic uncertainty, weak industrial demand, and tariffs have triggered a downturn for European IT services firms in Q1, marking their first recessive quarter since 2020 and causing them to underperform.   
• Discretionary IT spending is declining again in manufacturing, while structural challenges in Europe around competitiveness and regulation, limit recovery prospects, prompting firms to shift focus toward defence and sovereignty.   
• Generative and agentic AI are expected to drive a new growth cycle, with potential for significant productivity gains and reduced dependence on human labour, though current AI-driven revenues remain modest.

• Having digested yesterday’s published 1Q25 solid set of results and information that was shared during the company’s earnings call, we decided to stick to our neutral stance on the stock.
• Although the company has proven to be rather resilient and performed better than expected in the current uncertain environment, we fear that the real test still lies ahead: the potential impact of the trade tariffs still has to kick in.
• After all, a lot of the tariffs that were announced on ‘Liberation Day’ have been postponed for 90 days.

• India’s Electric Two-Wheeler (E2W) market is expected to surge from 5.1% penetration in FY2024 to 35-40% by FY2031, growing at a CAGR of 41-44%.
• The E2W sector’s growth is driven by government support, rising fuel costs, air pollution concerns, and a young, tech-savvy population, making it a key player in India’s sustainable mobility transition.
• E2Ws are set to dominate India’s two-wheeler market, offering consumers cost-effective, eco-friendly alternatives, reshaping mobility and providing new investment opportunities in the automotive and energy sectors.

• US stocks rose after President Trump announced a US-UK trade deal and expressed optimism for upcoming China trade talks, fuelling hopes of easing global trade tensions
• NTT will acquire the remaining 42% of NTT DATA’s shares through a tender offer worth approximately 2,370 billion yen, taking the company private
• Nintendo forecasts selling 15 million units of its new Switch 2 console in the fiscal year ending March 2026.

• UK deal and anticipation of a positive outcome to China talks lifting positioning into risk assets.
• Quantum computing names flying after D-wave numbers may lift Socionext.
• Nintendo numbers obviously conservative, while Ibiden points to a bigger NVDA product mix + index upside.

• Starlink receives DoT approval for satellite internet in India, partnering with Jio and Airtel, targeting rural and remote areas.
• NSE receives Sebi’s in-principle approval to launch electricity derivatives. Discussions on contract structure and tenure are ongoing.
• Grant Thornton identifies 25 Indusind Bank (IIB IN) staff involved in accounting lapses. Some may be retained, others face termination.

• India-UK FTA negotiations officially concluded May 6, 2025, securing tariff-free UK market access for many Indian goods.
• Eliminating UK duties boosts Indian textile competitiveness significantly and improves mobility for service professionals, driving trade growth.
• Increases optimism for Indian textile, IT, and export-focused stocks as the FTA unlocks substantial new opportunities.

• The Indian cement industry saw strong demand in Q4 FY25, with industry volume growth of 4% YoY and leading players reporting double-digit sales growth.
• Demand in April 2025 was weak across most regions due to severe heatwaves and labor shortages, slowing construction activity significantly.
• Cement demand is expected to grow at 7–8% in FY26, driven by infrastructure projects and housing, with major players expanding capacity.

• On Monday (5th May), Singapore’s Securities Industry Council (SIC) issued a consultation paper on amendments to Singapore’s Code on Take-overs and Mergers.
• The aim of the proposed changes is to improve deal clarity and fairness. Standout proposals include a 28-day PUSU deadline, and making it less difficult for a competing offer.
• Public feedback on the proposed amendments is open until 5 June 2025.

• The S&P 500 rose 0.43% to 5,631 as the Federal Reserve held rates at 4.25%-4.5%, warning of rising risks to inflation and unemployment due to ongoing trade war concerns
• Nippon Telegraph and Telephone is reportedly planning a tender offer of up to 3 trillion yen to acquire the remaining shares of NTT Data
• Shionogi Pharmaceutical announced plans to acquire Torii Pharmaceutical, a JT subsidiary, for approximately ¥160 billion 

• Late session rally for chips and semi-cap names with the US signalling a softening of export curbs.
• ARM numbers after the bell sending stock -10% point to Softbank missing todays upside.
• Is Japanese shipbuilding expertise the new bargaining chip against tariffs? 

• India-UK FTA removes a 12% import tariff, giving Indian textile exporters a strong price advantage in the UK market.
• Cotton-Rich Indian apparel aligns with UK demand; exports of women’s cotton trousers to the UK rose 30% in 2023.
• The FTA is set to boost India’s annual apparel exports to the UK from $4 billion to nearly $6 billion by 2025.

• The most recent Fed Financial Stability Report released on 25 April shows that Other Lending to FI’s for banks includes Private Credit
• This means that the C&I loan category of banks is partly diluted, where banks are providing this lending via private lenders
• The implications are highly positive to the understanding of underlying credit demand, economic strength, and bank health

• Japanese consumers have had a rough ride in recent years, not dissimilar to their peers in many other markets. 
• But here consumers are less used to persistent inflation and adapting has resulted in important changes in behaviour, notably cutting back to pay for the spiralling cost of food.
• On the other hand, persistent wage growth is also new and, while too much of these increases have been stuffed under the mattress, spending on treats continues.

• BABA US: Ele.me’s Daily Food Delivery Orders via Taobao Deals Surpass 10 Million on May 5 (-)
• TCOM US/3690 HK/ATAT US: Summary of May Day Holiday Consumption Trends.(+/+/+)
• Entertainment Sector Update: Weak Box Office Performance During May Day Holiday Hits 8-Year Low(-)

• 1211 HK/9863 HK: Summary of April 2025 Sales for Major Chinese Automakers(+/+)
• 1211 HK:The foundation laying ceremony for BYD’s passenger vehicle factory in Cambodia has taken place, with an expected official production launch in the fourth quarter of this year (/)
• 1211 HK: BYD Launches Fourth Vehicle Carrier Ship and Prepares Fifth for Export Expansion.(+)

• Mixed bag for tech earnings over the Japan long w/e with Lattice, Palantir and On Semi down, Lumentum and Coreweave up.
• SMCI cutting guidance a mere 1-week after releasing prem numbers threatens to erode confidence in management.
• Pharma will be under pressure after the FDA’s picks a perceived vaccine hawk for its Center for Biologics and Research and Trump hints at price pressures.

• The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as the Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting
• Ford Motor beat expectations but suspended 2025 guidance, anticipating a $2.5 billion tariff hit
• Mitsubishi Corp forecasts a 26% drop in net profit to 700 billion yen for the year ending March, due to the lack of significant capital gains

• Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
• Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
• If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

• Indonesia’s online market category is highly dynamic and constantly evolving, with new brands, manufacturers, and sales platforms competing for dominance.
• For brands, online growth heavily depends on online market data.
• However, this reliance comes with risks, as brands often lack visibility into the true drivers of category sales numbers.

• India is rapidly expanding its network of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), with 16 FTAs in effect and 23 under negotiation, which is the highest in ASEAN countries
• India’s trade flows are projected to grow at twice the pace of global trade, positioning the country as a major economic hub by 2033.
• The India-UK FTA and the broader expansion of FTAs across key global markets are strategically driving India’s growth in manufacturing, reducing trade deficits, and fostering innovation. 

• Chinese exporters use fake labels and rerouting to dodge Trump tariffs, straining Asian trade hubs and triggering global customs crackdowns.
• Brookfield-Backed Avaada plans INR 4,000–5,000 crore IPO for its solar module arm, expanding India’s green energy manufacturing ambitions.
• Indraprastha Gas (IGL IN) hikes CNG prices for the second time in a month, targeting 33% higher realisations and stronger margins by FY26.

• Markets rebound on optimism regarding tariff negotiations as furniture and furnishings stocks outperform.
• The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture index was up +3.1%, the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers index increased +4.1%, and the Home Goods Retailers index improved +5.4% for the week, beating both large caps +2.9% and the R2K +2.8%

• Long suffering housing markets aren’t getting better anytime soon as increasing economic uncertainty bites (1). 

• Biotech fared better than pharma, as macro trends mostly favored growth stocks and LLY weakness pressured the large cap group.
• M&A activity also helped biotech, with NVS acquiring RLGS at a 108% premium and MKKGY buying SWTX after months of speculation.
• Sentiment remained cautious among industry leaders, with another potential sign of regulatory disruption as the FDA missed Stealth’s (private) PDUFA date.

• Crude oil prices have dropped sharply, with WTI and Brent falling 3-4% due to OPEC+’s decision to increase oil output to 960,000 bpd, representing a 44% unwinding .  
• This decline in oil prices could benefit India’s Oil Marketing Companies, paint, tyre, and aviation sectors, while negatively impacting upstream oil explorers and refineries.
• Despite OPEC+’s move to ramp up production, global demand remains uncertain due to trade tensions, and oil prices are forecasted to stay low, affecting various sectors.

• Global companies are shifting supply chains, adopting the “China+1” strategy, with India emerging as a significant winner, attracting manufacturing and investment across sectors like electronics, EVs, and textiles.
• India offers a strategic alternative to China, with favorable policies, a growing domestic market, and trade advantages, positioning itself as a manufacturing hub amid global trade shifts.
• India is no longer just a backup for China; it’s becoming the primary destination for global supply chains, reshaping the manufacturing ecosystem with deepening local integration and technological advancements.

• This domestic sector has been  outperforming the Topix and should continue
• Fits the current investment zeitgeist for Japan amidst the market turbulence
• The Japanese Yen will continue to strengthen against the USD 

• Tim Cook said in a recent call, starting June 25, all iPhones entering US will be sourced from India, creating a billion-dollar opportunity for India.
• Apple’s growing investment in India represents a strategic shift away from China due to rising geopolitical tensions and high production costs in China.
• As India continues to scale up, the country has the potential to close the gap with China and become a critical player in high-tech manufacturing.

• The SA All Property Index experienced a sharp initial decline precipitated by the US tariff announcements, but staged a strong recovery following a partial pause in tariff implementation. 
• Global REITs were up +1.25% for the month, but US REITs ended the month down -2.23%.
• Despite global turbulence South African property companies demonstrated resilience. Ultimately ending the month firmly in positive territory up +6.54%, pulling the Index back into positivity for the year (YTD +2.15%). 

• Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)’s April Slump: Operational, Not Structural Temporary plant shutdowns dragged volumes; normalization expected. Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) : Domestic Drag, Exports Hold Up.
• TVS Motor (TVSL IN) : Momentum + Execution = Strong across domestic, exports, and EVs. Growth outperformance could justify its valuation premium — but how long can it hold?
• Demand Tailwinds Strengthen into May : Favorable marriage seasonality, recovering rural sentiment, and lean channel inventory suggest a stronger May — key for stocks at current levels.

• Prescription drug sales in Japan in FY25 increased 0.6% YoY to ¥10.8T on an NHI price basis. Takeda Pharmaceutical and Daiichi Sankyo remained the top 2 pharmaceutical companies.
• Samsung Biologics signed $514M CDMO deal with an undisclosed U.S.-based pharmaceutical company. Celltrion has received approval in Korea to conduct phase 3 clinical trial for its Keytruda biosimilar candidate CT-P51.
• Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories expands its strategic partnership with Sanofi to introduce RSV drug, Beyfortus in India. Medanta is entering North-East India by building a 400-bed super specialty hospital in Guwahati.