Thematic (Sector/Industry)

• Stocks slipped as trade tensions resurfaced; Nasdaq -0.9% as Texas Instruments’ weak outlook hit chipmakers
• China trade tensions, as President Trump considers restrictions on critical software exports.
• Automakers including Honda and VW face potential production disruptions after semiconductor supplier Nexperia suspended shipments

• Lam Research beat, but with 43% of revs still coming from China the market reaction is muted.
• Japan’s newly minted PM calls for defence spending 2-years ahead of schedule.
• Samsung and S&S Tech filing patents for EUV mask blanks the end for Hoya?

• Over the past five years, Southeast Asia’s e -commerce industry has changed from chasing market share to improving profitability.
• Singapore’s advantage in e -commerce lies in its dense logistics network and limited industrial land.
• Every online order ends with a digital payment, and this layer generates steady revenue for service providers.

• Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
• Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
• If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

• OCBC upgrades Nanofilm to ‘buy’ due to valuation factors.
• DBS raises Sheng Siong’s target price after visiting its new CBD store.
• RHB maintains ‘buy’ rating for ST Engineering after winning power plant contract.

• Fed quarterly data on net charge-off rates (NCO) and delinquency rates, does not suggest any major concerns
• The data is partly backwards looking, and does not include Tricolor, First Brands, but still, data appears benign
• Growth in NCO and delinquencies since FY20-FY22 is skewed due to coming off of forbearance, lower rates, can help total figures in coming quarters

• Singapore recycled only ~5% of its plastic waste in 2023, about 48k tonnes out of ~918k tonnes generated (NEA 2024). 
• Most plastics are incinerated or exported because virgin resin remains cheaper than recycled material and contamination rates are high. 
• The sector’s economics are supported by regulation, not market forces. 

• Passenger traffic has rebounded beyond 2019 levels, led by Asia -Pacific’s long -haul reopening and tourism demand.
• By 2034, global trips could reach 12bn. 
• Yet aircraft delivery backlogs, slot congestion, and labor shortages limit supply growth. 

• U.S. stocks were mixed as the Dow hit a record high on strong GM and Coca-Cola earnings, while a Trump–Putin meeting delay signalled uncertainty over the Budapest summit.
• Gold -5%, Silver -6.3%: Gold saw its biggest one-day drop in over a decade. Precious metals stocks fell sharply: Wheaton -9%, Newmont -9%.
• Japan’s first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, pledges to tackle rising living costs, prioritizing economic policies over an early election, while planning to abolish the gasoline tax.

• Numbers from PulteGroup pointing to a nascent bottoming sends builders higher.
• Texas Instruments down afterhours will weigh on Rohm, Fuji Elec, Renesas etc, but this may be short lived.
• Can Davinci success in the US be a positive read for Sysmex’s Hinotori with the stock on its knees?

• The comment by JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM US) about its two bad loans suggesting there will be more, something like ‘cockroaches’ coming out from nowhere. 
• The weekly data from H8 filings at the Fed have been showing lower LLR for many weeks, suggesting a better credit environment not worsening – whatever the animal.
• The reality is that most banks that have announced in the US are showing lower credit costs, lower NPLs or benign growth in bad loans. 

• Apple to ATH’s with its China iPhone17 sales tracking 14% better than the same period for the iPhone16.
• With an LDP – Ishin pact signed, Takaichi is set to reign as PM. Space names and JSW look to have more upside as do Heavies.
• Will a China trade deal include a big Boeing order after a 5-year hiatus? Comments from the US Ambassador and Trumps play book point to YES.

• US stocks: SPX +1.1%, Nasdaq +1.4%; Apple’s 3.9% surge to ATH on strong iPhone demand
• US government shutdown into 3rd week; President Trump optimistic ahead of meeting with President Xi Jinping; U.S. signed rare earth pact with Australia.
• LDP+JIP coalition signed. Continued mkt focus on Takaichi-thematics: security and technology stocks.

• Japan’s LDP and Nippon Ishin agreed to form a coalition, paving the way for Sanae Takaichi to become Japan’s first female prime minister.
• ASKUL (2678 JP) suffered a major ransomware attack disrupting operations at both corporate and consumer platforms, with investigations ongoing and no recovery timeline announced.
• Nintendo (7974 JP) requested suppliers produce up to 25 million Switch 2 units by March 2026, signalling confidence ahead of the next console cycle.

• Reports that Apple is set to release a touchscreen MacBook should help Nitto Denko.
• China AI play Cambricon sees revs and OP surge, pointing to more upside for JP FA plays with Sino-semi exposure.
• Luxury back in the spotlight may help Shiseido and Kose rebound off multi-month lows.

• We remain BULLISH on gold for the long term; however, price corrections will depend on shorter-term trends in geopolitical factors, central bank buying, and buyer exhaustion. 
• The strong support for the price of gold comes from rapidly declining real rates and global currency debasement.  These underlying trends coupled with safe haven demand drive the recent surge.
• ETFs have become the largest source of demand for gold in 2025 at over 50%.  Gold held by central banks is increasing as dollar FX reserves have declined since 2020.

• Hansoh Pharmaceutical entered outlicense agreement with Roche for upfront and milestone payments of $2B+. Leads Biolabs and Dianthus Therapeutics entered into exclusive global license agreement for pre-clinical asset.
• Chugai Pharmaceutical’s partner Eli Lilly announced positive results from Phase 3 trials of orforglipron. SanBio Co announced that their partial change application for AKUUGO is one step ahead for approval.
• Celltrion launched Actemra biosimilar, Aptozma in the U.S. at ~35% discount to original drug. Samsung Biologics shareholders approved biologics business spin-off plan to transform the company into a pure-play CDMO.

• SEBI issued an interim order barring eight individuals and impounding INR173.14 crore in alleged illegal gains from insider trading in IEX shares, involving a high-ranking CERC official leaking confidential information.
• This unprecedented case highlights a critical vulnerability: the leakage of UPSI from a regulatory body, undermining market integrity and posing a new, significant risk for companies dependent on government policy.
• The decisive action by SEBI sends a powerful deterrence signal, but investors must now factor in regulatory governance risk as a core valuation parameter, especially for monopolistic or policy-sensitive entities.

• Samsung plans to acquire advanced lithography tools from ASML to strengthen its market position against TSMC.
• Telecom companies in Taiwan reported record revenues in September, largely due to increased iPhone 17 sales.
• China’s tightening control over critical minerals raises concerns for the electronics supply chain and manufacturing.

• For the week: Nikkei: -1.1%, TPX -0.8%, JPY 149.70 (-1.48¥), Gold +8.8%, Oil: -3.4%, BTC: -7.2%
• A week remains a lifetime in financial markets. The exuberance that lifted Japanese equities to record highs only last week has given way to a more cautious tone
• Sector wise, Retail outperformed, suggesting defensive positioning, but also reflecting strong underlying business performance. Aeon, Ryohin and Fast all saw major gains. 

• Exports up 6.7%, imports up 16.6% in September 20 25
• Cotton output likely to be around 31.2-33.5 million bales in 2025-26
• New project announcements in castings & forgings industry rise to Rs.27.9 bln in Sep 2025 qtr

• US stocks declined with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling 0.6% and 0.5% respectively, on US-China trade tensions and regional bank loan losses.
• Shares of Zions Bancorporation (-13%) and Western Alliance (-11%) plunged after both banks disclosed loan problems
• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged Japan to halt Russian LNG imports

• TSMC numbers not enough to appease markets, while Oracle quells AI profitability concerns.
• HP enterprise margins shrink on growing costs for its servers to house turbo-charged AI chips.
• Essilorluxottica’s Meta AI glasses a hit, but how does Nikon fit into the frame?

• Rob Mullen writes gripping resource investor letters, discussing topics like private credit, private equity, and market impact
• He takes a disciplined approach to investing, focusing on cash flow dynamics and management transparency
• Mullen’s background in quantitative analysis and psychology influences his value-driven investment strategy in the natural resources sector

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Lithium has re-emerged as a focus due to export controls and its designation as a critical material in the US and Europe.
• Lithium equities have begun to price in higher values but remain well below full recovery levels.
• Given their underperformance, lithium equities offer a lower-risk way to play the critical minerals theme.

• DBS and CGS International keep ‘hold’ rating on Aztech Global.
• DBS reports public transport fare hikes are lower than anticipated.
• JP Morgan notes Keppel’s continued asset monetisation in their update.

• Demand outside gold remains soft; co‑funding costs show early easing; asset quality stress is shifting, with vehicle finance and micro‑LAP emerging as pain points.
• The divergence across NBFC subsegments (gold, affordable housing, vehicle finance, micro-LAP) is widening, making sector-level staging less helpful – selective bets will matter more.
• We remain biased toward affordable HFCs, gold financiers (to ride momentum), and select diversified NBFCs. Vigilance is needed to combat NIM pressure and rising unsecured stress.

• India bans import of roasted arecanut priced below Rs.351 per kg
• Eli Lilly’s Orforglipron shows strong results in late-stage diabetes trials
• CEA drafts plan for investments of Rs.19.3 trillion in nuclear capacity

• Methodology. We reviewed 50 under-covered, AI-involved public companies (~$2.7 billion average market cap; about five analysts each) and their respective one-year market-cap changes.
• We then mapped them to one or more of 11 AI application areas.
• We also assigned each company a subjective “AI Centricity” score (1 to 10 scale) based on each company’s level of focus on AI. 

• US Markets higher on back of strong bank earnings and ASML numbers spur rally in SPE names
• LVMH +12% on surprise Q3 result as Chinese buyers return. EU lux names higher but muted follow through in US due to trade spat.
• LDP and Japan Innovation Party to begin talks on trying to form coalition. Increases likely hood of Takaichi as PM.

• ASML guiding for growth despite a big cut in China sales a positive roadmap for JP SPE also.
• Memory prices continue to soar as makers stop issuing spot prices due to lack of inventory.
• A LDP-JIP alliance makes a Takaichi PM-ship more likely. Watch as the satellites continue to fly.

• Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.
• While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.
• Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.

• Wells Fargo & Co (WFC US) reported strong loan growth and much lower credit costs 3Q25
• The credit costs from WFC are stepped down, and fully reflected of weekly B/S from Fed data
• C&I loans are up a lot, indicative of economic strength, NPL ratio for all loans, are falling more

• Plastic products industry commissions projects worth Rs.4.1 billion in September 2025 quarter
• Gems & jewellery exports to US down 40.3% during April-September 2025
• New project announcements in construction materials industry rise to Rs.197.5 bln in Sep 2025 qtr

• SC Capital has successfully sold an education building located in Seoul for a total of $38 million.
• Australian executives have initiated wrongful termination claims against JLL after their recent dismissals.
• In Shanghai, office rents have experienced a decline for the 14th consecutive quarter due to new buildings entering the market.

Key points (machine generated)

• Regional casino stocks have been downgraded to historical lows despite recent growth in gross gaming revenue (GGR).
• The report suggests that GGR growth is supported by a loyal customer base and is likely to continue, outpacing GDP growth.
• If growth trends persist, stock prices could appreciate by 30-40% as valuations return to historical ranges of 8-10x EBITDA.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Markets mixed on US-China trade tensions and Powell employment warnings; SPX -0.2%, NDX -0.8%, DJIA +0.4% outperformed.
• AI sector sold off on Oracle/AMD GPU deal; NVDA -4.4%, AVGO -3.5%, TSM -2.3% while AMD +0.8%.
• Japan’s LDP plans extraordinary Diet session Oct 21 for PM election; outcome hinges on DPP/Komeito support as parties negotiate majority coalition.

• Markets buoyant elsewhere but tech, although Trump threat to Chinese cooking oil dented  sentiment somewhat.
• Japan had a big tech puke yesterday afternoon which may have been catch up to Monday holiday, may see less downside than tape suggests to start.
• Japan’s fledgling opposition coalition looks unlikely to get too far given wide policy differences, likely Takaichi still PM.

• Weekly data from Fed shows continued strength for banks and the underlying US economy, for data 1 October
• Loan loss reserves (LLR) just hit a new low growth rate at 0.72% YoY which should be definitive: credit metrics in US are exceptional, and improving 
• New loan growth data hit a new high, up 4.86 YoY, sensible given we now have a bit more time passage after rate cut

• Shanghai office rents have been declining for 14 consecutive quarters due to new buildings.
• China Vanke has appointed a new chairman amid reports of a previous executive’s detention.
• Hong Kong has started a tender process for a residential site in Kowloon, indicating market activity.

• CGSI flags lower earnings for Riverstone due to currency shifts, maintains ‘add’ rating.
• 17Live’s challenges might be easing, according to Lim & Tan’s report.
• DBS suggests parent company could increase dividends from Genting Singapore.

• Steel demand likely to grow by 9%: World Steel Association
• Gross sugar output likely to be around 34 mt in 2025-26
• CMFRI aims to achieve mariculture production of 0.25 mt by 2047

• Opposition coalition forming against Takaichi, but unlikely to succeed given vast policy differences
• Samsung big beat this morning shows the memory super cycle may be a real thing
• Softbank to surge with ARM architecture used in latest Broadcom/NVDA multi-year deal for ASIC

• A day of celebration with the Israel–Gaza peace deal, but markets took greater comfort from President Trump’s softer tone on China – dialling back tariff threats and easing geopolitical tension.
• Japan returns from holiday having largely sidestepped last week’s global sell-off. A modest reset is likely, but domestic investors can count themselves fortunate to have missed the worst of it.
• Broadcom–OpenAI supply deal lifted US tech sentiment, though its impact on Japan’s semiconductor food chain should be limited. Local focus remains firmly on domestic politics.

• Sun Corp (6736 JP): A deep-value holding company trading below the value of its 44% stake in NASDAQ-listed Cellebrite; positioned as a discounted proxy on the growth of digital forensics. 
• MegaChips (6875 JP): A fabless semiconductor firm with a legacy ASIC business but a hidden asset in its ¥160 billion SiTime stake; City Index Eleven to pressure value unlock
• KeePer (6036 JP): A high-margin car detailing business with embedded optionality through its SOFT99 stake; activist entry by Misaki Capital ensures governance pressure.