Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The cooperation between China and Russia will be extensive and far-reaching.After the historic reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, there’s expected to be a series of major international changes ahead.
The highlight of Xi-Putin meeting could be to promote the BRICS currency. This means that global de-dollarization has officially begun, which will be a fatal blow to the US dollar.
The future game rule in this world is no longer be decided by the US alone. We suggest that investors change their way of thinking, because the world has changed.

SPAC Talk: The SVB Collapse and SPACs

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

In the ordinary course of SPAC business. In what has become the norm in SPAC land these days, we can report another flurry of liquidation announcements.
As we begin the second half of the month, the liquidation count for March, including those that have been completed or are scheduled to be completed for the remainder of month, has already passed 34, involving the return of $10.9 billion to their Class A shareholders.
The prospects of more liquidations being added to the March list remain high.

Commodity Analysis – Copper Futures

According to Graph 2, during the period October 7, 2022 – January 6, 2023, an overall bullish trend was reflected in the prices of Copper.
During the examined period there were broadly three secondary movements.
From October 7th, until November 11th, an upward trend was observed.

China TMT Update(Mar.21): BILI/BIDU/BABA/3635.JP/BGNE – Douyin Launches “Qingtao”, Similar to BILI

BILI: Douyin launches a new APP “Qingtao”, similar to BILI (-)
Baidu’s ERNIE Bot exceeds expectations from user feedbacks (+); BABA/3635JP: <Three Kingdoms: War Chess Version> performance slightly above average (+/+)
BeiGene’s termination of DKK1 collaboration with Leap is likely because its PD-L1 already got positive Phase III result on the same indication（/）

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended March 17, 2023

WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended March 17, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, rising 1.2% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.6%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (up 4.4%).
Advanced Transportation Solutions (69.3% of the index) drove the index performance, rising 3.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (22.8% of the index) was down 2.0% and Energy Technology was down 5.8%.
Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 23.6x versus 17.6x for the S&P 500.

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Mar 20

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |UBScs – Wedding Vows Sealed; NUGGET: MOL-Diversification Can’t Come Fast Enough and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Good Morning Japan |UBScs – Wedding Vows Sealed; NUGGET: MOL-Diversification Can’t Come Fast Enough
Globalwafers Q4 2022 Earnings Key Takeaways
[Consumer Brands Deep Dive]:Structural and Substitution Drive Chinese Consumer
TRACKING TRAFFIC: Chinese Express / No Signs of a Sharp Recovery in Jan-Feb Data
Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 3/20

Good Morning Japan |UBScs – Wedding Vows Sealed; NUGGET: MOL-Diversification Can’t Come Fast Enough

OVERSEAS. Equities Sell-off on Pending Demise of Credit Suisse; Flight to Safety Trade resumes; SNB engineer Shotgun Wedding – deal closed with UBS $3.25 billion. The end of an era.
JAPAN. On Friday, NKY Futs -2.3% vs Cash as Contagion Fears around Credit Suisse prompted Flight to Safety; With CS Rescue, expect strong open; JP Shippers Container Profits looks shaky
NUGGET. As Mitsui OSK approaches ex-div, we think the share price will see headwinds given the expected earnings decline on ONE’s earning collapse = (MUCH) lower dividends next year.

Globalwafers Q4 2022 Earnings Key Takeaways

Globalwafers is bucking the trend with a sequentially flat CY2023 revenue forecast
Q4 2022 delivered the company’s twelfth successive quarter of sequential revenue growth
Details of the funding available under the US CHIPS Act for Globalwafers Sherman, Texas greenfield expansion still remain unclear

[Consumer Brands Deep Dive]:Structural and Substitution Drive Chinese Consumer

Even though we are long-term optimistic on the rise of Chinese consumer brands, we believe short-term optimism is misplaced.
Two themes: (1) structural changes led by China’s transition to an older and more affluent society, (2) substitution and globalization that can break the ceiling for valuation;
Our TOP PICKS are Li Auto, Atour, Luckin, FUTU, BEKE and Miniso

TRACKING TRAFFIC: Chinese Express / No Signs of a Sharp Recovery in Jan-Feb Data

By Daniel Hellberg

Combined January-February express industry parcel volume was up just 4.6% Y/Y, and ASPs were down -1.8% Y/Y
Listed express companies’ parcel volume and government-reported online tangible goods sales in the first two months of 2023 also both up a modest ~5% Y/Y
In a year when one express player hopes to list its shares, it’s unclear who will be willing to concede market share. We expect price competition to intensify in 2023.

Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 3/20

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Volatility continues to show up with the recent banking sector stress which has given market participants fresh concerns over secondary credit exposures and the Treasury/central bankers response to address the issues.
With the Fed meeting this upcoming week, never before in this interest rate hiking cycle to date has there been more diverse viewpoints coming out over whether a Fed pause, Fed hike, or even a Fed cut should be done in the next meeting.
Up until this point, the conversations have focused on how much (25bps,50bps, 75bps) the Fed should do at each of its meetings in order to get inflation back down based upon the incoming inflation data.

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Mar 19

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): AMD. Latest Market Share Growth & Outlook and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

AMD. Latest Market Share Growth & Outlook
GEM Weekly (17 Mar 2023): Chinese Macro Data; CATL, ByteDance, Samsung Electronics, Baidu
China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.17) – VBP on ICL/Sports Medicine, New Payment System, Time to Long CXO?
Short Note: LONG China on Monetary Easing Cycle

AMD. Latest Market Share Growth & Outlook

AMD’s overall x86 market share has doubled in the last three years
AMD’s desktop market share rebounded from 13.9% in Q3 2022 to 18.6% in Q4 2022
AMD will likely prioritise server versus client market share in 2023 & 2024, pressing home their clear leadership advantage over Intel in this segment during this timeframe

GEM Weekly (17 Mar 2023): Chinese Macro Data; CATL, ByteDance, Samsung Electronics, Baidu

By Wium Malan, CFA

The Global Emerging Markets weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
Macro data points: Chinese industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment.
Companies mentioned: CATL (A) (300750 CH), ByteDance (1439927D CH), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Baidu (9888 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.17) – VBP on ICL/Sports Medicine, New Payment System, Time to Long CXO?

National centralized procurement on ophthalmology and orthopedics would be carried out soon, including ICL and sports medicine. Products in neuro-intervention/neurosurgery/peripheral intervention/IVD reagents would be included in 2023 VBP as well.
After NRDL negotiation/VBP/DRGs policies are fully mature, it is expected to see the emergence of some high-price-oriented payment system for innovative products. Only then will the industry beta really emerge.
If long-term money doesn’t have enough understanding of the trend of long-term interest rates, the expected return and valuation model of healthcare companies can’t be adjusted in time (e.g. CXO).

Short Note: LONG China on Monetary Easing Cycle

By Jacob Cheng

PBoC just announced a RRR cut of 25bps, which is a surprise to market
The cut will lower average RRR from 7.8% to 7.6%, and is expected to release c. 500bn of liquidity. China’s low inflation allows more room for further RRR cuts
Government’s press release addresses key market concerns. We need to monitor recovery in property market. LONG China on easing cycle. China property names are trading at distressed valuation

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Mar 18

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | The Deflationary Macro Read; SONY; What’s up with Auto Stocks and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Japan Weekly | The Deflationary Macro Read; SONY; What’s up with Auto Stocks
US Bank Sector Stress – Old Fashioned Risks and a Regulatory Loophole Meet the Digital Age
Commercial/Contract Furniture/Consumer Hardlines Industry News

Japan Weekly | The Deflationary Macro Read; SONY; What’s up with Auto Stocks

US stocks up, bonds down, commodities down, Japanese stocks down = deflation
The UK CMA is getting closer to a decision on the Microsoft acquisition of Activision. The provisional findings are in, the responses are in….now we wait
Auto stocks were clear underperformers. You can chalk that up to yen strength or a growing realization of the cost of electrification.

US Bank Sector Stress – Old Fashioned Risks and a Regulatory Loophole Meet the Digital Age

By Victor Galliano

Interest rate risk in the system increased with the Fed’s steep interest rate hikes and due to the opt-out for many US banks on the AFS securities market-to-market capital hit
Uninsured and concentrated deposits, at the first hint of bank trouble, can take flight very quickly especially in the case of concentrated, key elements of the Silicon Vally Bank collapse
We believe that it is premature to look for buy opportunities in US banks, although we believe that the largest US banks are sound in terms of their balance sheets

Commercial/Contract Furniture/Consumer Hardlines Industry News

This note addresses the Business Institutional Furniture Manufacturers Association’s (BIFMA) Monthly Market Pulse (MMP) of incoming orders and sales for January 2023.
About 50+ BIFMA member companies voluntarily submit monthly sales and orders to a national accounting firm that aggregates and reports composite data.
Neither BIFMA nor any individual member has access to the raw data.

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Mar 17

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |VICTORY Declared as Bailouts Rule; NUGGET: ORIX-Riding the Zero-Carbon MegaTrend and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Good Morning Japan |VICTORY Declared as Bailouts Rule; NUGGET: ORIX-Riding the Zero-Carbon MegaTrend
Automakers in China Are Racing to Slash Prices
ZTO Express Q4/2022 Results & Guidance: Moderate Growth in ’23, but Also Obstacles
Housing Market Slide Slows Amid Signs of Recovery
China TMT Update (Mar.17): 1024.HK/BIDU/700.HK/NTES：Baidu ERNIE Bot Press Conference Is Held

Good Morning Japan |VICTORY Declared as Bailouts Rule; NUGGET: ORIX-Riding the Zero-Carbon MegaTrend

OVERSEAS. Crisis Over !Bailouts from US to Europe, Stocks rally as Contagion fears wane; Major Banks rescue First Republic Bank; Swiss Central Bank protects Credit Suisse; ECB raises by 50bps
JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 133.8; Expect Japan Equities to start the road to recovery with macro fears subsiding; Japan-Korea move fwd on trade/security.
NUGGET. Orix – one of the Biggest Renewables Plays in Japan. Riding the Decarbonization MegaTrend

Automakers in China Are Racing to Slash Prices

By Caixin Global

Several major automakers in China are racing to slash prices on both new-energy (NEV) or conventionally powered vehicles, hoping to survive an escalating price war as consumer demand weakens amid policy changes.
The price war intensified at the start of March, when state-owned Dongfeng Motor Group Co. Ltd. launched a promotion in its home province of Hubei by offering steep discounts on some of its models
The promotion, which came two months after U.S. electric-vehicle (EV) giant Tesla Inc.’s eye-catching price cuts, set off a chain reaction across the industry

ZTO Express Q4/2022 Results & Guidance: Moderate Growth in ’23, but Also Obstacles

By Daniel Hellberg

ZTO Express (ZTO US) met consensus Q422 EPS estimate despite a miss on Revenue
Management expects to exceed industry volume growth (around +10%) in 2023
Likely obstacles to a sharp earnings recovery are: ASP momentum, “new-old” competition, and a lack of demonstrated cost control

Housing Market Slide Slows Amid Signs of Recovery

By Caixin Global

China’s struggling property market is showing glimmers of improvement as the protracted decline in housing investment and sales slowed during the first two months this year
Property investment by developers dropped 5.7% in the first two months of 2023, narrower than the 12% decline in December and the 10% slump for all of 2022.
Housing sales also showed signs of recovery in the first two months. Total property sales by floor area fell just 3.6% from a year earlier, compared with a 24% decline for the whole of 2022

China TMT Update (Mar.17): 1024.HK/BIDU/700.HK/NTES：Baidu ERNIE Bot Press Conference Is Held

1024HK：China’s consumer rights gala exposes problems of livestreaming industry, Kuaishou receives a warning（-）
BIDU：Baidu ERNIE bot press conference is held， there result is not promising（-）
Gaming Industry: Game-related proposals during Two Sessions indicate positive attitude for gaming industry (+)

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Mar 16

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Semiconductor Memory Segment Q4 2022 Review and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Semiconductor Memory Segment Q4 2022 Review, 2023 Outlook
Good Morning Japan |Now Its Credit Suisse-Markets Rattled; NUGGET: Fuel for Japan’s Defense Stocks
IVF: Secular Growth for Decades to Come.
Investors’ Capital Allocation Shift Among Korean Banks Post Collapse of SVB Financial
Semiconductor Silicon Wafers Segment Q4 2022 Roundup & 2023 Outlook
The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 40
China TMT Update(Mar.16): BABA/JD/PDD/VIPS/TikTok – PDD Reveals Ambitious Goal in Temu Conference
Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended March 10, 2023
January Mattress Imports Bump Higher Versus December; Sourcing from Vietnam Rebounds

Semiconductor Memory Segment Q4 2022 Review, 2023 Outlook

H2 2022 was a brutal half year for memory. H1 2023 doesn’t look any better.
We anticipate a trough in Q1 2023, sequentially flat Q2 followed by modestly increasing revenues through H2.
Micron’s upcoming earnings on March 28 will be the next significant data point regarding the state of the memory segment.

Good Morning Japan |Now Its Credit Suisse-Markets Rattled; NUGGET: Fuel for Japan’s Defense Stocks

OVERSEAS. Credit Suisse Rattles Markets; Spurs Equity sell off in flight to Safety trade; UST 2Yr Yld back below 4%; Crude Extend losses amid Banks sector worries;
JAPAN. NKY Futs -2.6% vs Cash; USDJPY 133.4. NKY Futs surprisingly weak given JP untouched by turmoil; Govt considers Cash transfers to poor households; Inbound recovery Continues
NUGGET. As Japan Hosts “Defense and Security Equipment International (DSEI) JAPAN” trade show this week, it will highlight opportunities for local defense contractors overseas.

IVF: Secular Growth for Decades to Come.

By Michael Fritzell

The IVF industry is booming, driven by couples having children later in life as well as infertility problems.
There should be plenty of opportunities for IVF clinic operators, including for Jinxin Fertility which may benefit if the Chinese government introduces subsidies for IVF procedures. But the acquisitive nature of many IVF-related companies has caused their returns on equity and earnings per share growth to be weak.
One stock that trades at a low multiple with fat profit margins is Organon, though be aware of its ongoing patent cliffs, which may be the reason it was spun off in the first place.

Investors’ Capital Allocation Shift Among Korean Banks Post Collapse of SVB Financial

By Douglas Kim

Svb Financial has collapsed and Credit Suisse is on the verge of collapse. We discuss a trading strategy on Korean banks amid the ongoing turbulence on the global banking system.
Our trading strategy is to go long on a basket of three largest banks in Korea (KB, Shinhan, Hana) and go short on a basket of five smaller banks.
Post collapse of SVB Financial, one clear signal appears to be increasing global capital allocation to the “too big to fail banks” and reduced capital allocation to regional banks.

Semiconductor Silicon Wafers Segment Q4 2022 Roundup & 2023 Outlook

Worldwide silicon wafer shipments declined ~4% sequentially in Q4 2022. We anticipate a further 10% sequential decline in area shipments in Q1 2023
For 2023, we expect wafer shipments to decline by around 5% YoY with weakness in H1 offset by strength in demand in H2.
Despite the decline in area shipments, we expect the sector to remain strongly profitable, bolstered by the impact of Long Term Agreements and customer prepayments.

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 40

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 96% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 29%

China TMT Update(Mar.16): BABA/JD/PDD/VIPS/TikTok – PDD Reveals Ambitious Goal in Temu Conference

PDD: PDD reveals ambitious goal in Temu offline conference (+)
BABA/JD/VIPS/3690.HK: 5% YoY rebound in January/February retail data, but slower than expected (-/-/-/+)
TikTok：TikTok is ready to launch search ads, minior impact to Google

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended March 10, 2023

The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 10.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 4.5%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 8.1%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (down 4.7%).
Advanced Transportation Solutions (67.9% of the index) drove the index underperformance, falling 12.4%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (23.6% of the index) was down 3.4% and Energy Technology was down 10.3%.
Top 10 Performers: WWR, ABML, EFOI, LPEN, AMYZF, FCSMD, REE, PPSI, JEV.V, TPIC

January Mattress Imports Bump Higher Versus December; Sourcing from Vietnam Rebounds

This note addresses the January 2023 mattress import data posted on the Department of Commerce, US International Trade Commission DataWeb at https://dataweb.usitc.gov.
We track imports for three specific Harmonized Tariff System 10-digit codes (HTS-10) that define adult mattresses.
HTS import unit and customs value data are normally posted ~70 days after the month-end of the month being reported.

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Mar 15

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Equities Recoup (Some) Losses; NUGGET: ISpace to Rescue Japan’s Space Dreams and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Good Morning Japan | Equities Recoup (Some) Losses; NUGGET: ISpace to Rescue Japan’s Space Dreams
Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

Good Morning Japan | Equities Recoup (Some) Losses; NUGGET: ISpace to Rescue Japan’s Space Dreams

OVERSEAS. SPX +1.7% as Regional Bank rebounded as Calmer heads prevailed; CPI Print at 6% provides a dose of reality; Meta Culls again; Another Big Boeing Order.
JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 134.2; Surprising JP Bank Sell -off yesterday to reverse; BOJ buys ETFs for 2nd Day; Companies hiking Wages better than expected.
NUGGET. iSpace – Japan’s key hope to conquer space. IPO slated for early April, and a moon landing just after. Could be big.

Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

By Jim Handy

Semiconductor revenues through January are behaving as Objective Analysis predicted in October
There has been a slight delay in the collapse, but overall, the collapse is very nearly following its predicted course.
Large memory makers will be the hardest hit, followed by processor vendors

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Mar 14

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |US Bank Turmoil Spur Safe Haven Bid; NUGGET:Japan Wage Hikes – Something Special and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Good Morning Japan |US Bank Turmoil Spur Safe Haven Bid; NUGGET:Japan Wage Hikes – Something Special
Intel’s Dividend Cut Debacle
Semiconductors: 2022 Review & 2023 Outlook
Shroom Shmooz: Thoughts on Pathways to More Robust Payor Coverage for PAT
SPAC Talk: The Deal or Bust Cycle Set to Continue
China/Asia TMT Update(Mar.14): PDD/CPNG/BILI/ZTO – Logistics Companies Increased Prices;

Good Morning Japan |US Bank Turmoil Spur Safe Haven Bid; NUGGET:Japan Wage Hikes – Something Special

OVERSEAS. Shares of US regional banks crash; Flight to safe haven assets as US2Yr yield crash; Also, strong Yen bid; Nomura expects Fed to CUT next (now that’s original).
JAPAN. NKY Futs -2.2% vs Cash; USDJPY strengthens to 133.21; Masatoshi Ito – founder of Ito-Yokado dies at 98; Nidec -Leadership Transition take shape; Japan Post Bank priced; Komatsu upgrade
NUGGET. JAL EXCEEDS union demands with wage settlement. Inflation may act as the slayer of inefficient companies as weaker companies will just not be able to keep up.

Intel’s Dividend Cut Debacle

Intel’s CFO had reiterated his support for maintaining the dividend on multiple occasions since December 2022, most recently at the latest earnings call on January 26 last.
On February 22, Intel issued a press release announcing a 66% dividend cut.
What caused Intel to change their position on the dividend over the course of three weeks last month?

Semiconductors: 2022 Review & 2023 Outlook

2022 was characterised by a historically strong H1 followed by a far weaker H2
The current downturn is impacting memory, PC and smartphone shipments the hardest
2023 is shaping up to be the reverse of 2022, i.e. historically weak H1 with recovery in H2

Shroom Shmooz: Thoughts on Pathways to More Robust Payor Coverage for PAT

Affordability is an important condition for broad-based accessibility to psychedelic-assisted therapy (PAT), both now (ketamine) and in the future (MDMA, psilocybin, et al.).
This makes the evolution of payor coverage as critical a part of the development of PAT as the clinical trial outcomes and the progression toward a more accommodative regulatory environment.
Current payor coverage for ketamine-assisted therapy (KAT) is inconsistent at best.

SPAC Talk: The Deal or Bust Cycle Set to Continue

The liquidations count continues to rise. While the SPAC IPO market appears to have gone back into its slumber with no pricings to report yet in March, the main theme of the SPAC market continues to be liquidations, as it has been particularly since October 2022.
So far in March, 26 SPACs are slated to liquidate their trusts (of which half have already been liquidated), which makes it the second-highest monthly total ever, only behind the excise tax panic-stricken December 2022 rush of 89 liquidations.
Based on the current count for March, which we suspect will not be the final number, $8.5 billion will be returned to Class A shareholders.

China/Asia TMT Update(Mar.14): PDD/CPNG/BILI/ZTO – Logistics Companies Increased Prices;

PDD: Temu launches in Australia and New Zealand (+); CPNG: Coupang withdraws from delivery service in Japan (+)
ZTO/PDD: Logistics companies increased parcel prices in Yiwu City (+/-)
BILI:BILI hold content creator seminar to discuss video metrics (+)

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Mar 13

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Asia Financials: The Fallout from SVB and Silvergate | Where’s the Biggest Asset/Liability Mismatch? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Asia Financials: The Fallout from SVB and Silvergate | Where’s the Biggest Asset/Liability Mismatch?
Good Morning Japan |Contagion Fears Dominate; NUGGET: Effective Activism – TARGET, TIMING, TACTICS
“Sudden Death” of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) – The Impact on China Healthcare
China Oil Sector: A Look from SOE Valuation Enhancement Angle
Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 3/13
Pdd/3690.hk/700.hk/1877HK/BGNE：PDD Enters Local Life Services Business

Asia Financials: The Fallout from SVB and Silvergate | Where’s the Biggest Asset/Liability Mismatch?

By Stanley Tsai, CFA

The unfolding crisis is unlikely to have far-reaching impacts on Asia financial names, given their more robust deposit franchises and sector diversification.
That said, the Taiwanese financial holdcos do seem to be substantially more exposed than their peers in other markets owing to the USD fixed-income exposures at their life insurance units.
In a flight-to-quality scenario, we expect Fubon FHC to outperform the more geared Shin Kong FHC.

Good Morning Japan |Contagion Fears Dominate; NUGGET: Effective Activism – TARGET, TIMING, TACTICS

OVERSEAS. US stocks hit again on contagion fears as Fed takes control of Silicon Valley Bank; Lots of activity over the weekend to shore up confidence.
JAPAN. NKY Futs -2.2% vs Cash. USDJPY strengthened to 135. With all activity in the US to shore up confidence, Japan likely bottoms early; Ueda confiremed as BOJ Governor.
NUGGET. Dainippon Print(7912) – Confluence of Target, Timing and Tactics. A spectacular win for Elliot, Activism in Japan and for Japan

“Sudden Death” of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) – The Impact on China Healthcare

SVB has special institutions in China and its business mode is Venture Lending. The closure of SVB could make it harder for Chinese startups to raise money from US investors/banks.
The scale of SVB is small, but it cannot be said that it has no impact on the fundamentals of China healthcare companies. Investors need to reassess the potential risks.
SVB’s woes would not be a serious blow to the US if government takes timely action. However, if BRICS currency is established, it would be real fatal for the dollar.

China Oil Sector: A Look from SOE Valuation Enhancement Angle

By Osbert Tang, CFA

The oil majors – CNOOC Ltd (883 HK), China Petroleum & Chemical (386 HK) and PetroChina (857 HK) – are interesting plays on government’s plan to boost capital market valuations.
Higher dividend payout, privatisation of undervalued subsidiaries, return to A-shares, share buyback and upping stake by major shareholders are just some example of supporting tactics.
The government may possibly mobilise more offshore funds of SOEs to add stakes. We think ROE expansion and capital market valuations to gain importance in senior management KPIs.

Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 3/13

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

After breaking above the bear market trend line resistance area, last week’s banking sector contagion fears, spotlighted by Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) collapse, pushed the S&P 500 back below its 200 day moving average on high volume.
Startup-focused lender SVB Financial Group is the largest US bank failure since 2008 and was the 16th biggest in the U.S. at the end of last year with about $209 billion in assets.
Silicon Valley Bank’s failure is the largest since Washington Mutual went bust in 2008.

Pdd/3690.hk/700.hk/1877HK/BGNE：PDD Enters Local Life Services Business

1877HK/BGNE： Coherus announce FDA inspection of Toripalimab manufacturing facility in China in C2Q23（+）
700HK：Honour of Kings (HOK) International Version first launches in Brazil (+);
PDD/3690HK: PDD begins recruiting merchants for its local life services business (+/-)

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Mar 12

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) – Impact on Korean Banks and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) – Impact on Korean Banks
China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.10)- Three Conditions to Be Biopharma, Anticipate the Collapse, DS-8201
GEM Weekly (10 Mar 2023): China GDP, South Korea Inflation, Malaysia Interest Rates; Kakao Corp
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Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) – Impact on Korean Banks

By Douglas Kim

On Friday 10 March, Svb Financial (SIVB US) suddenly collapsed, becoming the largest bank to fail in the United States since the 2008 financial crisis.
In our view, the collapse of SVB Financial will likely have a negative near-term impact on the Korean banks.
Three ways that this will negatively impact Korean banks include risk-off investment sentiment, greater excuse to hold on to cash by Korean banks, and lower interest rate spreads.

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.10)- Three Conditions to Be Biopharma, Anticipate the Collapse, DS-8201