United States

• April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   
• Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   
• FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.

• Circle will be offering 24 million shares at a $24-$26 range equating to a 5.2b-5.65b valuation.
• The company is a stable coin powerhouse with more than $25 trillion in transacted volume since founding. 
• The deal has a potential “floor” with companies reportedly interested in acquiring Circle Internet. 

• In a turbulent 2025, Netflix has emerged as one of the most closely watched tech stocks, not just for its market performance but also for its evolving business strategy.
• The streamer’s share price is up over 30% year-to-date, nearing a $500 billion market cap, outpacing the broader S&P 500 by a wide margin.
• Amid global macro uncertainty and shifting consumer behavior, Netflix is experimenting aggressively — hosting live NFL games, expanding into gaming, leveraging artificial intelligence in content production, and responding to a proposed 100% tariff on foreign-produced films.

• Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) has entered a defining phase in its AI journey, unveiling a host of advanced technologies and product integrations that mark its most aggressive push yet into artificial intelligence.
• At the heart of this transformation is Gemini 2.5 Pro, the company’s most advanced AI model, now powering everything from Search and mobile assistants to developer platforms and multimodal queries.
• The rollout of AI Overviews, which now serves over 1.5 billion monthly users, and the launch of AI Mode, capable of handling more complex search tasks, underscore Alphabet’s commitment to redefining user experience through AI.

• Their company was purpose-built to address issues at the forefront of defense, national security and space industries and they have organized their business to reflect this goal. 
• Since 2019, they have grown their revenue to $144.2 million in 2024 and $34.5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025.
• The company officially filed for its IPO on May 16th and is highly likely to debut in the month of June. 

• Informatica is back in the headlines following renewed acquisition talks with Salesforce, reviving a potential deal that had collapsed in 2024 due to valuation disagreements.
• This time, the context has shifted considerably.
• Informatica’s stock soared 17% on the revived news, while Salesforce’s dipped ahead of its earnings report.

• AT&T’s $5.75 billion acquisition of Lumen Technologies’ Mass Markets fiber business is poised to be one of the most significant telecom deals in recent years.
• Expected to close in the first half of 2026, the transaction will transfer approximately 1 million subscribers and 4 million fiber-enabled locations across 11 key states—including markets such as Denver, Seattle, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, and Minneapolis—into AT&T’s growing fiber footprint.
• The move is part of a broader strategy by AT&T to double its fiber coverage to 60 million locations by 2030.

• The Kraft Heinz Company has ignited speculation across the investment world with its recent confirmation that it is exploring “potential strategic transactions” aimed at unlocking shareholder value.
• This announcement comes at a time of mounting pressure for the food giant, which owns legacy brands such as Heinz, Oscar Mayer, and Kraft.
• Notably, the news coincided with another significant development: Berkshire Hathaway, a long-time stakeholder holding 27.5% of the company, has relinquished its board seats, with Timothy Kenesey and Alicia Knapp stepping down.

• Global base oils prices mostly hold firm vs feedstock/gasoil prices.
• Firm margins in Asia and Europe point to still-tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing refiners to maintain high output levels.
• Weaker margins in US point to diverging fundamentals compared with other regions.

• US base oils demand likely to remain more muted as concern about strength of end-user consumption and expectations of improving supply incentivize buyers to maintain low stocks.
• Demand could get support from procurement of additional stocks as buffer against any weather-related supply disruptions during Atlantic hurricane season.
• Any such stock-building would be despite expectations of more readily-available supply over coming months.

• Trump’s endorsement removes the political overhang, reigniting momentum for Nippon Steel’s $55/share all-cash offer.
• Implied EV/EBITDA of 8.94x reflects ~$2–3B in strategic synergies over standalone valuation.
• 11.59% annualized return offers attractive arbitrage upside with manageable regulatory and execution risk.

• TransDigm Group Inc.’s recent earnings discussion sheds light on both its strengths and challenges, providing insights into the company’s ongoing strategies and performance outlook.
• During the second quarter of fiscal 2025, TransDigm reported strong operational performance with significant contributions from its commercial aftermarket and defense market channels.
• Revenue from these divisions displayed healthy growth, while commercial OEM revenues remained largely flat compared to the previous year, indicating an area of potential improvement as production recovers from past disruptions.

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) delivered a robust start to 2025, reporting stronger-than-expected earnings that reinforced the company’s growth trajectory in high-demand areas like AI and data centers.
• The semiconductor firm posted first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.96, slightly above Wall Street’s estimate of $0.94, with total revenue hitting $7.4 billion, surpassing the projected $7.1 billion.
• This performance was fueled by the impressive 57% year-over-year growth in AMD’s Data Center segment, which reached $3.7 billion.

• Regarding Datadog’s Q1 2025 financial results, the company reported a solid performance with a revenue of $762 million, representing a 25% year-over-year increase.
• This figure surpassed the high end of their guidance.
• Datadog revealed a customer base of approximately 30,500, with about 3,770 customers having an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $100,000 or more, accounting for 88% of ARR.

• The first quarter of 2025 results for Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (FIS) demonstrated both operational progress and strategic initiatives that position the company robustly for future growth.
• The revenue growth for the quarter was 4%, with a significant acceleration in recurring revenues, indicative of a resilient business model that thrives across different economic conditions.
• The quarter was marked by strategic structural changes, notably the announced acquisition of Global Payments’ issuer business and the sale of a minority stake in Worldpay.

• Super Micro Computer shares experienced their steepest decline in months after the company released preliminary third-quarter fiscal 2025 results that came in well below Wall Street expectations.
• SMCI stock fell 14% to $30.96, marking its largest one-day drop since late February.
• The artificial intelligence server maker reported revenue between $4.5 billion and $4.6 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $0.29 to $0.31, significantly below analysts’ forecasts of $5.4 billion in revenue and $0.53 EPS.

• DoorDash’s latest earnings revealed a nuanced overview of its financial performance and strategic direction, highlighting a mix of strengths and challenges.
• The first quarter of 2025 demonstrated significant growth and ongoing investment in expanding its global footprint through strategic acquisitions.
• In terms of financial performance, DoorDash saw a continuation of growth trends, with consistent gains in gross order volume (GOV) and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), underscoring operational efficiency.

• Electronic Arts Inc. recently reported strong financial performance in the last quarter of its fiscal year 2025, showcasing strengths and addressing some challenges faced throughout the year.
• The company recorded notable achievements with its popular gaming franchises, highlighting its robust position in the gaming industry.
• One of the significant positives for Electronic Arts was the turnaround in its EA SPORTS FC franchise.

• Marriott International delivered a solid performance in the first quarter of 2025, despite a challenging macroeconomic environment.
• The company reported strong development activity with record first-quarter global signings and a 4.6% net rooms growth over the trailing 12 months.
• RevPAR (revenue per available room), a key performance indicator for the industry, increased by 4.1% globally, supported by a 3% rise in average daily rate (ADR) and a one percentage point increase in occupancy.

• Elevation Oncology (ELEV) is undergoing a strategic review after discontinuing its lead program, with potential 14–42% upside.
• Mayne Pharma (MYX:AX) faces merger arbitrage challenges due to Cosette Pharmaceuticals’ Material Adverse Change claims, trading at a 35% discount.
• Air Canada (AC:TO) offers a tender with odd-lot provision, repurchasing shares at C$18.50 – C$21.00, with potential upside.

• The narrative surrounding China’s front-loaded stimulus faced some headwinds as April’s total social financing (TSF) figures undershot expectations, registering 1.16 trillion yuan compared to expected 1.3-1.4 trillion yuan.
• Nonetheless, TSF remains up 28% ytd, reaching 15.2 trillion yuan, indicating a robust overall increase relative to the prior year. We expect it to pick up steam in future months. 
• We believe this will be bullish for copper pricing, coupled with the supply side sluggishness. (Read: Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies ).

• Shake Shack’s recent quarter results indicate a dynamic period for the company, showcasing both substantial progress and areas with potential challenges.
• The company has positioned 2025 as a transformative year, beginning with an ambitious expansion strategy to increase the number of company-operated Shacks to at least 1,500.
• This expansion will demand strong leadership and innovative strategies, with a focus on enhancing the guest experience, operational efficiency, and margin improvements.

• Itron’s first quarter of 2025 financial results demonstrated a robust performance characterized by strong margin expansion and earnings growth that surpassed expectations.
• The company delivered a revenue of $607 million with an adjusted EBITDA of $88 million, indicating a solid operational quarter.
• Non-GAAP earnings per share reached $1.52, representing a substantial year-over-year increase, while free cash flow doubled from the previous year to $67 million.

• Leonardo DRS demonstrated a strong performance in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, with financial metrics surpassing initial expectations.
• The company registered organic growth of 16% in revenues, with a significant book-to-bill ratio of 1.2 and a record backlog of $8.6 billion.
• This quarter marks the 13th consecutive quarter with a book-to-bill ratio over 1, underpinning strong demand across a diversified portfolio of products, including advanced infrared sensing, electric power and propulsion, and tactical radars.

• Palantir Technologies entered 2025 with first-quarter results that underscore both the power of its artificial intelligence portfolio and the hurdles that still shadow its global ambitions.
• Revenue climbed 39% year over year to roughly $1.02 billion, led by a 55% jump in the United States, where commercial sales surged 71% and government revenue rose 45%.
• Management highlighted that U.S. commercial activities have crossed a $1 billion annualized run rate and that uptake of its new Artificial Intelligence Platform is “racing ahead” across healthcare, financial-services, and industrial clients.

• Mohawk Industries’ fourth-quarter results showed a mixed performance amid ongoing industry challenges.
• The company reported net sales of approximately $2.6 billion, consistent with the previous year, although this included the benefit from two additional shipping days.
• Positively impacting the results were sales initiatives, restructuring efforts, and productivity improvements.

• BioMarin Pharmaceutical reported strong first-quarter financial results for 2025, marked by a 15% increase in total revenue to $745 million compared to the prior year.
• This growth was significantly driven by VOXZOGO, which generated $214 million, a 40% year-over-year increase, demonstrating continued demand for the achondroplasia treatment.
• Additionally, the enzyme therapies business unit grew by 8%, bolstered by a 22% increase in PALYNZIQ revenues.

• Floor & Decor Holdings reported its fiscal 2025 first quarter results, offering an insightful view into its strategic positioning and operational efficiencies amid a challenging economic landscape characterized by high volatility and uncertainty.
• The company delivered diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45, slightly down from $0.46 in the same period last year, but still surpassing the lower end of its expectations despite a decline in comparable store sales.
• Total sales showed a 5.8% increase, reaching $1.161 billion compared to $1.097 billion in the previous year.

• Arrow Electronics has presented several key financial outcomes and operational insights in its first quarter of 2025 results.
• The company reported consolidated sales of $6.8 billion, which exceeded the upper range of its guidance.
• Results showed that while global components sales were slightly down by 1% year-over-year at $4.8 billion, the Enterprise Computing Solutions (ECS) segment saw a notable 18% year-over-year increase in sales to $2 billion, indicating strong performance particularly in cloud and hybrid cloud technologies, and infrastructure software.

• Amazon.com, Inc. delivered a strong performance in the first quarter of 2025, reporting $155.7 billion in revenue—a 9% year-over-year rise—and a net profit of $17.1 billion that exceeded Wall Street estimates.
• Operating income also grew 20% to $18.4 billion, with trailing 12-month free cash flow hitting $25.9 billion.
• The North American and international segments each posted approximately 8% revenue growth, even amid foreign exchange headwinds.

• Chevron Corporation reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results, showcasing strong operational and strategic performance amidst ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
• Chevron’s commitment to shareholder returns remained robust, with $6.9 billion returned through dividends and buybacks in the quarter, continuing a streak of $5 billion or more per quarter for 12 consecutive quarters.
• The company made progress in strategic acquisitions, notably acquiring nearly 5% of Hess’s common shares, anticipating completing the merger soon.

• Markets are still active, with major moves in rates and currency
• There are conflicting signals in the bond market, with concerns over inflation and the economy slowing down
• Steven Englander from Standard Chartered discusses the dynamics of JGB and UST yields

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• SLR reform is a high priority for US banking regulators, with potential changes to how Treasuries are calculated
• The timeline for SLR reform is still in the early stages, with regulatory processes and personnel confirmations needing to be completed first
• Potential scenarios for SLR reform include carving out reserves and dealer holdings of Treasuries from the SLR denominator to address liquidity and market functioning concerns

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• MNTN, Inc., a high-growth provider of CTV performance marketing platform, priced its IPO at $16.00 per share, high end of range.
• The offering was ~14x times oversubscribed, according to Mark Douglas, Founder & CEO of MNTN. The IPO opened at $21.00 and closed at $26.36 per share, up ~65%.
• I think the stock was attractively priced vs. peers, given 30%+ growth rates, FCF positive business and top-tier backers.

• After adding ~2,300 Boe/d of shallow-decline production in the Lime Rock acquisition, management altered its FY25 capital program to favor allocating free cash flow to debt reduction.
• 2Q25 capital spending guidance was lowered by more than 50% from prior expectations, yet production guidance was maintained at 20,500-22,500 Boe/d (13,700-14,700 Bo/d).
• Updated full-year guidance reflects a 36% capital spending reduction from management’s initial outlook and a 5% production reduction. 

• IDEX Corporation recently reported its first-quarter results for 2025, outlining both positive performances and areas of challenge.
• The company exceeded expectations across revenue, profitability, and adjusted earnings per share, thanks to incremental cost savings and strategic price adjustments.
• This highlights IDEX’s effective operational management, despite an environment marked by policy-driven uncertainties, such as newly introduced tariffs.

• Avnet, Inc. reported its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, demonstrating a performance that exceeded some expectations despite challenging market conditions.
• The company achieved sales of $5.3 billion, reaching near the high end of its guidance, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.84 surpassed expectations.
• Cash flow from operations amounted to $141 million for the quarter, driven largely by a better-than expected performance in Asia and positive developments from Farnell, although the company faced ongoing weaknesses in the Western markets, with Europe providing the most difficult environment.

• Parker Hannifin Corporation’s Q3 earnings report for fiscal year 2025 highlights a robust performance characterized by record-setting profitability metrics amid challenging macroeconomic conditions.
• The company reported a solid adjusted segment operating margin of 26.3% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 27%, marking notable achievements as both figures reached record highs.
• Total cash flow from operations hit $2.3 billion year to-date, underscoring the strong cash generation capabilities of the business.

• KKR & Co. Inc. reported its first quarter 2025 results, showcasing a robust performance and strategic initiatives.
• The fee-related earnings per share increased to $0.92, marking a 22% rise year-over-year, while total operating earnings per share climbed 16% to $1.24.
• Adjusted net income per share noted a 19% uptick to $1.15.

• Cardinal Health, Incorporated reported robust third-quarter fiscal year 2025 results, demonstrating resilience and growth across its business segments.
• The company’s performance was particularly driven by strong utilization trends and execution in its Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions segment, as well as growth from three other businesses grouped under “Other.” The positive financial outcomes led Cardinal Health to raise its fiscal year 2025 EPS guidance.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc. reported strong third-quarter results for fiscal year 2025, reflecting robust performance across its various business segments, with total revenue increasing by 5% to $1.8 billion.
• The company achieved 8% growth in recurring revenues, constant currency, and a 9% increase in adjusted EPS, supported by solid execution of its growth strategy and a high level of visibility into its revenue streams driven by a 98% revenue retention rate and a significant recurring revenue backlog of $450 million.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Vulcan Materials is a major player in the construction aggregates market, providing the foundation for buildings, roads, and infrastructure in the United States.
• The company owns and operates quarries across the country, with a market cap close to $30 billion.
• Aggregates are essential for asphalt and concrete production, with Vulcan playing a crucial role in supplying this key material for construction projects.

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• VEON returned to billion-dollar quarterly revenue in 1Q25; EBITDA grew 13.7% YoY on strong digital execution.
• Digital revenues rose 50% YoY, now 14.3% of group total.
• Kyivstar IPO on track for 3Q25 at US$2.3bn valuation; fintech optionality in Bangladesh and Ukraine emerging.

• F1 is evolving to be more than just a sport, focusing on entertainment and business development
• The fan base is becoming younger and more diverse, with 40% women and 60% men, average age 35
• F1 is balancing historic venues with new races, aiming for 24 races per season and considering new markets in Asia and Africa

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• For the week ending 16/May, U.S. crude inventories grew by 1.3m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.9m barrel fall). Similarly, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly rose.
• The EIA reported a 120 Bcf storage build, exceeding analyst forecasts of an 118 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 3.9% above the five-year average.
• Barclays initiated coverage on Saudi Aramco with an ‘Overweight’ rating. Jefferies downgraded BP to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’, and Citigroup lifted its price target on Occidental Petroleum.

• Greetings from Copenhagen.
• We’ve previously advocated a long tilt toward commodities, as both the U.S. and global growth outlooks are being repriced amid the reopening of trade and the sudden realization that the U.S., China, and even Europe have collectively slammed the deficit accelerator—rather than the brakes.
• Everywhere you look, countries are ramping up fiscal spending to cushion the blow of tariffs.

• Tuya delivered a strong 1Q25, outperforming seasonal trends, with a record GAAP net profit of $11.0 million and a net margin of 14.8% (more than 20 percentage points higher Y/Y).
• Non-GAAP net profit also surged to $19.3 million, with margins reaching an impressive 25.8%.
• The company’s success reflects disciplined expense control, strong revenue momentum across all segments, and a growing emphasis on AI-driven solutions. 

• The Marqeta house of cards may come tumbling down: an FBI investigation could prompt MQ to lose up to 70% of its business.
• Future revenue looks​ weak for this “dinosaur” of a payments-processing company.
• Marqeta (MQ) is (mostly) a payment processor. MQ helps fintechs host their own payments tools by contracting with a Banking as a Service (BaaS) partner bank to manage client deposits. 

• Carrier Global Corporation reported a robust performance for the first quarter of 2025, showcasing strong results across various segments despite facing some challenges in certain areas.
• The company, which specializes in HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning), refrigeration, and fire and security solutions, provided a comprehensive view of its financial performance, including significant areas of growth and concern, setting the stage for the remainder of the year.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• MNTN priced a full-size deal of 11.7mm shares at the high-end of the range, $16.00, and opened at $21.00 for a gain of 31.3% at first trade. 
• The fireworks continued as the stock traded to a high of $26.88 before closing its opening session at $26.36 for a first day return of 65%.
• The deal was considered multiple-times oversubscribed and our sources stated that the final deal finished north of 12-times oversubscribed.

• Newton Golf (NASDAQ: NWTG) is an innovative, technology driven golf company with a growing portfolio of golf products, including putters, golf shafts, golf grips, and other golf-related accessories.
• The company went public in August 2023 raising $11.6 million in net proceeds.
• The company announced its entry into the golf shaft market in November 2023.

• EPA regulation targeted previously unregulated emissions  
•  USTMA calls it regulatory overreach that shoots up costs  
• Move can bolster domestic manufacturing, competitiveness

• The combined Zeekr (ZK)/Lynk reported C1Q25 top line 11% below our estimates, due to sharper than expected price erosions, 
• Despite ASP missing our estimates by 6.3% for ZK and 16% for Lynk, ZK managed to beat our gross margin estimate by 3.7ppt and consensus by 4.0ppt, 
• With Geely and related persons controlling 78% of ZK and Geely’s H-share stock rising in value, we see the chance for the go-private deal to succeed as high. 

• It wouldn’t shock me if the word “SPAC” itself has a negative connotation in your mind, but of course, it doesn’t inherently imply anything nefarious.
• A SPAC or “Special Purpose Acquisition Company” is just a publicly traded shell corporation that raises capital through an IPO to merge with or acquire a private business, enabling that target to become publicly listed without undergoing its own traditional IPO.
• EverArc Holdings, an acquisition company listed in London in December 2019, raised ~$340 million and staffed its board with some heavy hitters: TransDigm co-founder Nick Howley, “Outsiders” author-investor Will Thorndike, and Berkshire alumna Tracy Britt Cool, among others . 

• Greenidge announced a solid 1Q25, with revenue of $19.2 million, roughly flat Y/Y, and debt reduction of $12 million from the original $72 million to $60 million.
• The company had $13.3 million in cash and Bitcoin at the end of the quarter.
• CEO Jordan Kovler said, “This past quarter, our team’s disciplined execution and prudent financial management have significantly advanced the turnaround of our business and operations. 

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $23 price target for Guess?
• after visiting stores in Metropolitan New York City and Long Island.
• As we have seen in the previous two months, we believe Guess?

• DNOW is well-positioned to execute its strategy of strategically investing in the margin accretive areas of its business and returning cash to shareholders through its repurchase authorization.
• Two 2024 acquisitions, Whitco Supply and Trojan Rentals, expanded the company’s exposure in the midstream and water management sectors.
• In April 2025, DNOW acquired Singapore-based Natron International Pte. Ltd., expanding its electrical supply capabilities under the existing MacLean International brand to serve traditional and renewable energy, infrastructure, and other commercial and industrial end markets in the Asia-Pacific region.

• Azitra is developing genetically engineered bacteria for therapeutic use in dermatology.
• The company possesses a microbial library of 1,500 unique bacterial strains that are candidates for a variety of indications.
• Azitra’s lead candidate is ATR-12 for the rare disease Netherton syndrome (NS).

• Soluna recently announced its 1Q25 earnings an business update, with revenue of $5.9 million, 220 MW of new project development (698 MW total), and a solid cash position.
• The company has also simplified its capital structure by fully converting its notes last year, restructuring its Preferred B equity, paying off it Navitas loan, and securing $5 million in non-dilutive financing from Galaxy Digital.
• CEO John Belizaire said, “Our outlook shines brighter with expanding project development at Projects Rosa, Ellen, and Hedy.

• US treasuries ended mixed yesterday, with the curve steepening materially amid concerns over the US budget deficit and President Donald Trump’s impending tax-cut bill.
• The yield on the 2Y UST fell 1 bp to 3.97%, while the yield on the 10Y UST rose 4 bps to 4.49%.
• US equities retreated after a six-day rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both declining 0.4% to 5,940 and 19,143, respectively. 

• During the capital markets day last week, Vaalco outlined a production growth profile reaching >45 mboe/d in 2029 and 50 mboe/d in 2030 – surpassing the peak production of ~40 mboe/d that we had anticipated.
• Production is expected to reach ~30 mboe/d by mid-2026 , driven by the 2025/2026 drilling program in Gabon and the restart of production at Baobab in Côte d’Ivoire (CI).
• The next major increase is forecasted for 3Q28, with the start-up of Venus in EG, adding +20 mbbl/d gross production.

• Following its AGM on May 13 last, AMD announced a new $6 billion share repurchase program, despite still having $4 billion remaining on the previous buyback program
• The AGM also approved a proposal to authorize a 78% increase in the company’s share count, from 2.25 billion to 4 billion shares
• It’s a bold move on AMD’s part and it reawakens memories of the company’s acquisition of Xilinx back in 2022 in a $35 billion all stock deal. Deja vu ?

• The latest BofA survey showed that the consensus trade continues to be “long gold” with 58% of participants surveyed, followed by only 22% “long mag 7”.
• According to the analysis, gold is now more overvalued than ever before (since data was recorded in 2008). At the same time, positioning in the US dollar fell to a 19-year low.
• The positioning in gold is even that extreme that it pulled the entire commodity basket up with it – relative to equities.

• Global base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices even as they edge lower.
• Firm base oils values point to tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivize refiners to maintain high output.
• Base oils values hold firm ahead of typical seasonal slowdown in demand in coming weeks in Asia, and from start of Q3 in Europe/US.

• US Group II base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil trends higher in recent weeks compared with Q1 2025, even with dip in premium in mid-May.
• Group II domestic/export price premium trends higher after holding in relatively narrow range from mid-Nov 2024 to end-Q1 2025.
• Narrow range contrasts with steeper fall in Group II export price-premium to VGO in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, followed by sharper recovery from end-Q1 2024.

• The market remains relentlessly strong, shrugging off the latest “bearish” headline regarding Moody’s U.S. debt downgrade on Friday.
• This is exactly what we would expect to happen in a bull market, particularly during this “lockout rally,” and helps confirm our bullish outlook.
• Our outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500, while short-term gap support is at 5700-5785. We expect a test of all-time highs soon.

• Key 1Q25 takeaways include: 1) rising trade-in activity continues to drive growth, powerful lead indicators around ongoing government subsidies on new mobile phones, accelerating momentum with JD.com, and continued growth in AHS offline stores 2) more recent initiatives to enhance AHS Recycle’s brand, with a focus on the company’s comprehensive suite of services and competitive pricing, likely further stimulates growth in 1P business volumes and related contributions and 3) while management remains focused on reinvesting in the business to further accelerate top line growth, we look for senior officials to increasingly return excess capital to shareholders as profitability continues to scale via ongoing share repurchases and the potential for introducing a regular quarterly dividend in the not-too-distant future.

• GTG Financial was acquired in late February 2025 and so did not make a full quarter impact on AIRE’s consolidated results.
• Even so, since closing the acquisition during the quarter, GTG contributed to originating 36 mortgages in 1Q25, representing total loan volume of about $22.4m.
• 2Q25 – with peak homebuying activity underway – will mark the first quarter with full GTG contribution.

• SolarBank has positioned itself as a vertically integrated energy firm offering solar, battery energy storage systems (BESS), and other forms of power development services, EPC services, Operations & Maintenance services, and operates as an independent power producer (IPP).
• Despite the apparent shift in US Energy policy at the Federal level, demand for renewable energy remains robust at the state, provincial, and local levels.
• Increased energy demand from data centers, renewed domestic manufacturing, and EV penetration should all increase solar demand.

• U-Haul Holding Company is the parent company of U-Haul International, the world’s largest consumer truck and trailer rental company.
• U-Haul is also the third largest self-storage operator in North America.
• U-Haul benefited from a step up in top-line demand for self-moving services during the pandemic, namely in FY2021 and FY2022.

• NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) CEO Jensen Huang visited Taiwan to attend the COMPUTEX Taipei International Computer Exhibition.  
• Meanwhile, NVIDIA continues expanding its workforce, recently opening over a thousand job vacancies globally.  
• Throughout his speech, Huang repeatedly mentioned Taiwan. He opened with “Hello Taiwan,” noting that both of his parents were present in the audience, highlighting his personal connection to Taiwan.  

• Nvidia will provide IP blocks to other semiconductor designers (hyperscalers Amazon, Google, their design partners Alchip, Mediatek) so that they can integrate their own CPU or ASIC into Nvidia’s systems.    
• A small size RTX-Pro-Server for Enterprise to run their own AI models, AI agents. That’s “on-premise” AI. AI Data Platform, a tool to structure and train AI data and models.  
• Mediatek is promoted to the title of “great partner”. Lots of mentions of Hon Hai / Foxconn, TSMC. No mention of Broadcom.

• Steve Lowe, former managing director at Scotiabank, discusses his experience leading the iconic Scotia metals business
• Scotiabank’s success in the gold market was attributed to its broad scope and involvement in the physical business
• Focus on client service and cooperation among regions contributed to Scotiabank’s success in the gold market

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• The venture-capital backed company set terms for its IPO and will be seeking a valuation cut of more than 50% from its 2021 peak.
• Their revenue was $123.8 million and $82.7 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 50%.
• This IPO has gained a substantial amount of orders as the underwriters are classifying the books as multiple-times oversubscribed. 

• Their self-serve software platform enables marketers to precisely target audiences through their MNTN Matched technology and then directly attribute each view to a purchase or other action.
• Detractors of this IPO may point to the lack of profitability of a company founded in 2009 as well as the immense competition in the space.
• The company does have a grand vision and a solid core of backers with a manageable deal size.  Furthermore, 19 of the last 25 quarters have produced positive adjusted EBITDA. 

• Elevation Oncology’s market cap is $16.5m, trading at a 50% discount to its mid-year cash guidance of $30m-$35m.
• The company has no debt, $0.5m in payables, $3.7m in accrued expenses, and guided mid-year cash of $30m+.
• Potential upside of 30%-60% is based on liquidation or buyout scenarios, considering working capital liabilities and cash burn.

• Asia’s base oils demand could see earlier-than-usual seasonal slowdown in face of weak lube consumption and improving supply.
• Asia’s lube demand falls at end-Q1 2025 from year-earlier levels.
• Demand weakness shows signs of extending into Q2 2025 as uncertainty about US tariffs compounds signs of slowing economic growth.

• Before I dig into my regular update, I want to share one chart that caught my eye this week.

• Colin King did a nice job modeling out Lionsgate RemainCo Stub / Starz valuation from last May to now.

• Interesting to see that at one point it was trading at a negative $1 price.

• Asia’s heavy-grade base oils prices hold firm versus feedstock/gasoil prices.
• Asia’s Group II light-grade prices slip vs feedstock/gasoil prices faster than heavy grades and faster than Group I light grades.
• Supply-demand fundamentals likely to improve for light and heavy grades in coming weeks as plant maintenance draws to a close and demand slows.

• On May 14, 2025, Edesa Biotech, Inc. (EDSA) announced financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 that ended March 31, 2025 and provided a business update.
• The company has initiated outreach to potential investigators along with manufacturing-related activities to support U.S. regulatory approval for a Phase 2 study of EB06 in the treatment of vitiligo.
• Manufacturing of EB06 is likely to be finished in the second half of 2025 such that the company can submit the manufacturing data to the FDA as part of the Investigational New Drug (IND) application.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) delivered strong quarterly results, with higher commodity prices boosting revenues and lowering costs. Q125 EBITDA was US$330m, just 5% shy of the seasonally strongest Q4 number, as costs were markedly below and production was in line with quarterly guidance for both segments. The company maintained its FY25 operating outlook, which points to seasonally strong quarters ahead. PAAS also announced a proposed acquisition of MAG Silver (MAG), valuing the company at US$2.1bn. MAG owns 44% in a top-tier Juanicipio silver operation in Mexico. In this note, we provide an initial take on the transaction, while keeping our revised estimates and valuation of PAAS on a standalone basis.

• New Horizon Aircraft is a Canada-based aviation company specializing in the development of hybrid electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft
• HOVR’s flagship aircraft, the Cavorite X7 is likely to be commercially available in the next 24 to 36 months. HOVR has already completed the development of a 50%-scale prototype.
• The timeline looks achievable, and the Company has already committed to supplying five Cavorite X7 to Air Chile Ltd by the end of 2028.

• OPEC held its 2025 and 2026 demand growth forecasts steady. The IEA’s upward revision reflects a catch-up adjustment for 2024, not a fundamental shift in its forward outlook.
• The EIA raised its demand growth forecast by 7.8% for 2025 but cut estimates by 13.5% for 2026. Meanwhile, it raised supply forecasts and projected inventory builds for both years.
• The EIA expects Henry Hub prices to rise in 2025 and 2026 from current levels, though it revised its 2025 forecast 3.5% lower and lifted 2026 estimates by 4.3%.

• After falling to a 2025 low, Bean prices have rallied strongly to clock a nine-month high. Macro conditions augur well for the rally to be sustained. 
• Implied vols on bean options have dropped even as prices rise. Spike in skew points to reduced demand for downside risk hinting at upward price buoyancy.  
• Technical charts paint a broadly bullish picture with potential for rally ahead remaining intact. However, the bullish momentum might take a breather in the near term.   

• CXW is reactivating three facilities that it had idled, including two under letter agreements.
• CXW is optimistic that it will reach long-term agreements with ICE and others to warrant bringing additional capacity online.
• The 3rd facility, Dilley, is being reactivated under a new long-term agreement that is expected to generate annual revenue of ~ $180m when it has ramped fully and to be accretive beginning in 2Q25.

• POET Technologies is a startup disrupting the photonics industry with a new technology that eliminates parts of an optical transceiver and replaces them with a single integrated device which is smaller, cheaper, faster, more scalable and with much lower power consumption than the current solutions.
• Its solution can be produced at wafer scale, eliminating costly manual steps, and allowing it to be easily produced in large quantities and at low cost.
• In 2024 it raised $81 million to ramp production and restructure the company by buying out its JV partner.

• Mastech Digital, based outside Pittsburgh, PA is an IT staffing business with a data and analytics, consulting, and project management service serving blue-chip customers in the US.
• The company trades below its peers and we expect stock price appreciation now that the company has returned to growth.
• New management has implemented a new focus on AI and hopes to profit by aiding clients in its implementation.

• Dyadic has developed C1, its proprietary fungal expression system that can produce a variety of recombinant proteins.
• C1 has been commercialized in industrial applications and is in development for production of pharmaceutical grade proteins.
• C1 exhibits potential to economically produce recombinant proteins, biologic vaccines, virus like particles, antibodies, Fc-fusion, enzymes, AAVs and other biopharmaceuticals.

• IPW reported revenue of $16.6 million in 3QFY25 (quarter ended March 31, 2025), down from $23.3 million in the year- ago period, with the decline primarily due to (1) a cautious consumer demand environment,
• (2) market uncertainty leading to slower order flow from retail partners such as Amazon, and
• (3) elevated purchasing volumes from IPW’s largest channel partner, Amazon, in the year-ago period, which presented a tough comp.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $20 price target for Lands’ End after reviewing the May catalog.
• As we start to enter the “buy now wear now” swim season, Lands’ End has materially ramped overall newness, with new technical advances for the core Tugless line, multiple additions to the Slendersuit offerings and new seamless looks, all of which serve to emphasize the company’s technological leadership and ability to offer multiple choices for different body sizes in the core swimwear offerings.
• Further, there remains continued expansion/emphasis on pre and post swim looks, with swim dresses, wraps and cover-ups.