Tech Hardware and Semiconductor

1. TSMC Q325. Today, The Numbers Are Insane

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Q3 2025 revenues of $33.1 billion, slightly exceeding the upper end of the guided range, up 10.1% QoQ and up 40.8% YoY.
• On track for 35% YoY revenue growth in 2025, with revenue likely to exceed $120 billion
• No QoQ revenue growth this quarter suggests either AI demand growth has stalled or TMSC is maxed out at the leading edge. Methinks it’s the latter..

2. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Sinks Sharply; ASE Near Parity Again

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +22.1% Premium; Continue to View 24% or Higher as Level to Short From
• UMC: +0.4% Premium; Results Coming… Wait for More Extreme Spread Levels
• ASE: +0.4% Premium; Near Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread

3. Intel Q325. Solid Quarter But Still No Coherent AI Strategy & 18A Yields Won’t Mature Until 2027

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Intel announced Q325 revenues of $13.7 billion, above the high end of the guided range, up 6% QoQ and up 2.8% YoY
• Intel forecasted current quarter revenues of $13.3 billion at the midpoint, down $1 billion YoY and down $400 million QoQ
• 18A yields are not where we need them to be, by the end 2026 they probably will be, and they should be “industry acceptable” by 2027 

4. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek & Nvidia Announce GB10 Partnership; TSMC’s Prices Spur Samsung Interest

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• MediaTek Joins Forces with NVIDIA on the GB10 Superchip — Locally-Run AI Models Are Coming to Your Desktop
• TSMC’s 2nm Price Hike Spurs Interest in Samsung, But Underscores Its Strength
• Latest for Smartphone Demand 3Q25: A Little Bit Better, Just a Little 

5. Intel (INTC.US): 3Q25 Results Slightly Beat; Emphasized AI Importance; Seeking New Foundry Clients.

By Patrick Liao

• Intel Corp (INTC US) 3Q25 slightly exceeded consensus estimates in both revenue and EPS.  
• CEO Lip-Bu Tan emphasized the growing importance of AI, while CFO David Zinsner highlighted the accelerated funding from the U.S. government and strategic investments from NVIDIA and SoftBank
• Intel’s foundry business still relies primarily on internal orders and continues to seek external customers.

6. LRCX Q325. Solid Results, Outlook But China Exposure Is A Glaring Red Flag

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• LRCX reported September 2025 quarter revenues of $5.32 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint, up 3% QoQ and up 27.7% YoY.
• LRCX is forecasting current quarter revenues of $5.2 billion at the midpoint, slightly down sequentially, but up 18% YoY. In other words, the AI boost is coming, just not yet.
• The elephant in the room was once again revenue mix from China which accounted for a whopping 43% of sales, up from 35% in the prior quarter. Oh my!

7. IHI (7013 JP): SAR Satellite Deal Adds to Takaichi Trade

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

• New Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi aims to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP this fiscal year, two years ahead of the original schedule.
• Takaichi also wants to accelerate investment in advanced defense technologies. IHI, which recently signed an agreement with ICEYE to build earth observations satellites, should be among the beneficiaries.
• IHI’s sales and profit comparisons should turn positive during FY Mar-26. A 7-for-1 stock split effective October 1, 2025, makes the shares more attractive to retail investors. 

1. OpenAI, AMD Enter Into Strategic Partnership. Guys, This Is Getting Ridiculous!

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• OpenAI agrees to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs based on a multi-year, multi-generation agreement. The deal could be worth upwards of $100 billion to AMD through 2030
• AMD issued OpenAI a warrant for up to 160 million shares of AMD common stock, structured to vest as specific milestones are achieved, including AMD share price appreciation to $600
• Could a strategic partnership with Intel now also be on the cards? After all, OpenAI needs CPUs as well as GPUs, especially as they ramp into enterprise. Just saying…

2. Hitachi Ltd. (6501 JP): Tie-Up with OpenAI Opens the Flood Gates

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

• An agreement to supply OpenAI with energy-saving electric power equipment should be accretive to Hitachi’s sales and profits as long as the AI boom continues.
• Hitachi is also building an “AI Factory” based on Nvidia technology. This should accelerate the growth of Hitachi’s Lumada digital services platform, also boosting sales and profits.
• Hitachi’s share price jumped 10.3% on the OpenAI news. Data center news flow and AI sentiment now drive the share price. 

3. Intel (INTC.US): AMD to Submit Foundry Orders to Intel? We Think It’s Highly Unlikely.

By Patrick Liao

• What is happening with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) and Intel Corp (INTC US)?
• Intel’s stock price has risen about 50% from its April 8 low. However, we have yet to see any tangible progress in its manufacturing technology.  
• Intel’s stock price has risen about 50% from its April 8 low. However, we have yet to see any tangible progress in its manufacturing technology.  

4. Astroscale (186A.T-JP/ASTRO): The Small-Cap Takaichi Defense Trade

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

• After months of going nowhere, Astroscale shot up more than 20% in the two trading days following the election of defense hawk Sanae Takaichi as president of the LDP.
• Astroscale made a small gross profit last quarter, but needs a rising flow of contracts and subsidies in order to turn profitable at the operating and net levels.
• At ¥825, the stock price is 38% below the ¥1,326 high reached just over a year ago. If Takaichi becomes prime minister, the chances of regaining that high would improve.

5. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Why Many Tech Companies Could Soon See Their Chip Costs Rise Substantially

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• As Chips Move to 3nm and 2nm Designs, Tech Companies Could See a Sharp Increase in Their Chip Manufacturing Cost
• Intel (INTC.US): AMD to Submit Foundry Orders to Intel? We Think It’s Highly Unlikely. 
• HBM Stocks Will Keep Running (Micron, SK Hynix), It’s Just the Beginning 

6. PC Monitor: Dell Doubles Multi-Year Forecasts; AI PC Up-Cycle, Art Thou Finally Here?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Dell doubles long-term growth outlook to 7–9% revenue and 15%+ EPS CAGR through FY30, led by AI infrastructure.
• AI PCs emerge as Dell’s next growth engine; global refresh cycle could finally kickstart long-awaited PC upturn.
• Taiwan makers Asus, Acer, Quanta, and Wistron positioned to benefit as AI PC and server demand scales together.

7. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Weak US Friday Session Opens Up Wide Opportunities Across the Board

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +19% Premium; Good Level to Close Out for Those Short the ADR Spread
• UMC: -3.9% Discount; Rare Deep Discount Good Level to Long the ADR Spread
• ASE: -5.5% Discount; Any Spread Below Parity a Good Level to Long the ADR Spread

8. Sovereign AI. National Strategic Imperative, FOMO Or Both?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• If all of the publicly announced sovereign AI initiatives come to pass, they could account for upwards of $1 trillion in AI infrastructure spending through 2030
• For now, “sovereign” AI means mostly means made in the USA. However, there a growing demand for “sovereign” AI from China, particularly among countries disillusioned by the US trade wars
• In general AI infrastructure, the US is outspending China six to one in 2025. Could one be spending too much and the other spending too little? Let’s see… 

1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & UMC Spreads Higher After Taiwan Market Holiday

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +28.3 Premium; Historically Extreme Level, Can Short the ADR Premium
• UMC: +3.3% Premium; Historically Extreme Level, Short the ADR Premium 
• CHT: -0.7% Discount; Near Lower Bound, Consider Going Long the Spread

2. TSMC: New Signals Underscore N2’s Rise as a Blockbuster Node

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Latest Signals Continue to Indicate N2 Is Emerging as TSMC’s Blockbuster Node
• N2 Commercialization Timing Aligns With Major AI HPC Platform Roadmaps
• TSMC Market Share Over 70%… Could N2 Drive This Number Even Higher? Maintain Our Structural Long Rating for TSMC

3. PC Monitor: Nvidia GB10 PCs Poised to Redefine the AI PC Category

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• GB10 Brings Nvidia AI Performance From Data Center to the Desktop
• GB10 PCs Will Be “True” AI PCs, Their Capabilities Will Be More Evident
• From Niche to Market Driver; Maintain Structural Long for Mediatek, Asustek, Acer

4. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is It Possible TSMC’ Output Reach a 50:50 Ratio Between the U.S. And Taiwan?

By Patrick Liao

• The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, has requested that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)’s production output reach a 50:50 ratio between the U.S. and Taiwan.
• By contrast, TSMC’s fab construction also requires strong supplier coordination, and in the case of its U.S. fabs, there are numerous regulatory hurdles to overcome.
• Meanwhile, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)’s share price in Hong Kong has surged this year (+209.14%), significantly outperforming TSMC’s share price increase (+28.15%).

5. It’s Official, OpenAI Is Becoming A Multi-Trillion Dollar Hyperscaler

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Inference compute is going increase by a factor of one billion. It’s already gone up at least 2x in the past twelve months
• OpenAI will become the next multi-trillion dollar hyperscaler. NVIDIA is going to make sure this happens
• AI-Related revenues have already reached $1 trillion since all hypercaler revenues are now AI related according to Jensen. Problem solved!

6. Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI to Consume Nearly Half of Global DRAM; Why TSMC 2nm Will Be A Blockbuster

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• OpenAI, Samsung & SK Hynix Lock In Memory Pact — Taiwan Next Stop
• MediaTek’s Major ASIC Ambitions Face Delays from Some Key Clients
• TSMC: New Signals Underscore N2’s Rise as a Blockbuster Node 

7. Intel (INTC.US): Seeking Investment from TSMC?

By Patrick Liao

• NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)’s investment is focused on joint AI development.   
• Intel Corp (INTC US) may seek to invite Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) to join its investment initiative.
• Meanwhile, Intel Corp (INTC US)’s stock price has risen about 50.2% from its recent low. 

8. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains High Ahead of 3Q Results; CHT Rare ADR Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +26.8% Premium; Remains at Historical Extreme; Earnings Release Ahead
• ChipMOS: +1.3% Premium; Wait for Higher Level Before Shorting the Spread
• CHT: -1.0% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread

1. NVIDIA’S Genius Partnership With OpenAI May Be About More Than You Think

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• OpenAI and NVIDIA announced an audacious alliance under which the latter will invest $100 billion in the former
• That investment will be staged to coincide with each completed gigawatt of compute capacity, up to ten gigawatts in total, which the two companies are planning to jointly install
• Is this NVIDIA cutting out the middleman and setting up their very own private hyperscale enterprise to lease their GPUs directly to OpenAI? Uh oh!

2. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Eyes US Manufacturing, 40% Global Mkt Share; Micron Earnings Take-Aways

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Micron Earnings Call Analysis: AI Memory Tailwinds Getting Stronger as Servers, Smartphone, PC Demand Converge
• MediaTek Sharpens Flagship Push, Aiming for 40% Global Market Share… Also, Exploring U.S. Production Set Up
• KYEC (2449.TT): The Recent Upward Momentum in the Share Price Has Been Driven by Strong Fundamentals 

3. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q25/2025 Outlook Could Outperform; 2nm Is Likely to Largest Adopted in 2026

By Patrick Liao

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) 2Q25 growth likely reaches ~39% YoY with upside risk if 4Q25 outperforms.  
• Apple (AAPL US) remains the anchor customer driving N2 ramp in 2026.
• Since 2nm technology will be widely adopted starting in 2026, revenue growth is projected to be around 25% YoY.  

4. KYEC (2449.TT): The Recent Upward Momentum in the Share Price Has Been Driven by Strong Fundamentals

By Patrick Liao

• NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)’s GPUs and AI chips have been tested at King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT) facilities for the past three years.  
• The recent upward momentum in the share price has been driven by strong fundamentals.
• ASE Technology Holding (ASX US)/SPIL is trying to enter the burn-in testing space, but its equipment still lacks full certification from NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US).  

5. MHI (7011 JP): Laser Power Transmission Positive, Political Support Unclear

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

• Laser wireless power transmission technology opens new defense, dual-use and civilian market opportunities. 
• Japanese politicians inclined to spend more on defense, but worried about the national budget. Likely to split the difference between 2% of GDP and Trump’s demands. 
• Aircraft, Defense & Space to drive sales and profit growth through 2030. Buy on dips for the long term.

1. Intel CFO @ Citi’s 2025 Global TMT Conference: “We Will Use TSMC Forever”

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• We will be putting products on TSMC you know, forever, really. TSMC is a great partner for us. Obviously everyone understands that their support and technology are great. 
• 18A is actually a good node for us. We want to milk that node  We won’t get peak volume on 18A until the 2030 timeframe.
• Kevork Kechichian joined Intel as head of the Data Center Group. He will lead Intel’s data center business across cloud and enterprise, including the Intel Xeon processor family

2. Synopsys Crashes On “Major Foundry Challenges”. Intel, What Have You Done?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Last week, Synopsys reported Q325 results and guidance both well below expectations causing the share price to collapse over 34% in the immediate aftermath.
• The company revised down full year revenue targets, noting that “challenges at a major foundry customer are also having a sizeable impact on the year”
• That “major foundry customer” is likely Intel. Who’s next in line to face similar revenue impact from Intel’s challenges? 

3. MediaTek: Satellite Connectivity the Next Strategic Battleground for Mobile SoCs (Structural Long)

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Starlink’s Direct-to-Phone Semiconductor Integration Push Signals a Major Shift Coming for Telecom
• Direct-To-Satellite Connectivity Could Become Critical for a Market-Competitive Smartphone SoC Design
• Leadership in Satellite Connectivity Will Soon Mean Leadership in Smartphone SoCs

4. NVIDIA Becomes The Latest To Back Intel’s GoFundMe Appeal

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• NVIDIA will invest $5 billion in Intel’s common stock at a purchase price of $23.28 per share
• Intel will supply custom x86 server CPUs to NVIDIA, who in turn will sell RTX graphics cores to Intel to combine into an new type SOC for the PC market 
• Under sustained questioning during the Q&A, Jensen did a remarkable marketing pitch for TSMC, drowning any hopes of a looming Intel Foundry deal for the foreseeable future

5. TSMC’s COUPE Signals Silicon Photonics Go-Time — Early Winners in Taiwan’s Listed Supply Chain

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Last week at SEMICON, TSMC unveiled COUPE, moving silicon photonics from lab demos into industrial-scale advanced packaging.
• Himax, ASE, Zhen Ding, GlobalWafers, ACON, and Accton form Taiwan’s listed ecosystem for silicon photonics adoption.
• As NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)-driven AI clusters proliferate, the power and cost of moving data between chips have become as constraining as compute itself.

6. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Starlink Engaging Chipmakers in Direct-To-Phone Push; Intel’s TSMC Dependency

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Starlink Engaged with Chipmakers to Bring  Satellite Connectivity Direct to Smartphones — Mediatek Well Placed to Benefit
• Intel CFO @ Citi’s 2025 Global TMT Conference: “We Will Use TSMC Forever”
• TSMC’s COUPE Signals Silicon Photonics Go-Time — Early Winners in Taiwan’s Listed Supply Chain 

7. Intel (INTC.US): NVIDIA’s $5B Intel Stake — A Shift in Tech’s Competitive Landscape?

By Patrick Liao

• NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) surprised the market with its announcement of a $5 billion investment in Intel Corp (INTC US).
• The market seems to read this as the beginning of a deeper Intel–NVIDIA partnership in AI chips.
• We also note that Japan’s push to establish its own foundry industry through Rapidus deserves continued attention, as it could reshape the competitive map in the years ahead.

8. Memory Monitor: The Sticky Era — Memory’s Transition from Spot Pricing to Long-Cycle Commitments

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• The Industry Is Moving From Cyclical Volatility Into a Sticky Pricing Era.
• Why Memory Pricing is Becoming Sticky. — HBM Memory is Hard to Swap Out Once Designed Into a GPU Product.
• Investment View: Entering Memory’s Sticky Pricing Era — Structurally Long Micron & SK Hynix; Underperform for Nanya Tech.

9. UK Sovereign AI Proudly Paid For & Made In The USA

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella announced his intention to spend $30 billion on AI infrastructure in the UK. NVIDIA, Coreweave, Alphabet and OpenAI are also ponying up further billions
• Jensen Huang declared the UK and AI powerhouse, third in line globally behind the US and China
• Is it really UK sovereign AI when it’s mostly paid for and made in the USA?

1. @Sama Says There’s An AI Bubble. What’s Going On?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman caused quite a stir with his recent comments about an AI bubble, people getting burned and someone on track to lose a phenomenal amount of money
• However, his message would appear to be directed at other AI startups, not OpenAI, which he says plans to spend trillions on data centers in the not very distant future
• Meta’s no-cost-spared talent grab & Palantir’s valuation are bubbly red flags but the AI infrastructure build out currently underway is real & rational, assuming the ROI can follow expeditiously

2. MIT Report Claims 95% of GenAI Projects Fail. How Is This Possible?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Despite $30–40 billion in enterprise investment into GenAI, this report uncovers a surprising result in that 95% of organizations are getting zero return
• While employees are likely using LLMs in a personal capacity, this mostly isn’t feeding into the KPI’s that are being used to monitor the success of GenAI projects
• The harsh reality is that integrating GenAI tools into existing workflows is time consuming, needs careful planning and likely best done with help from the professionals. 

3. Texas Instruments & KLA Signal Continued AI Strength, Foreshadow TSMC’s 2nm Breakout

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TI is experiencing 50%+ YoY growth in data center, showing no signs of AI server demand slowdown.
• KLA calls 2nm a “compelling” node, projecting it could be the industry’s largest over first three years.
• Taiwan Tech positioned to benefit via TSMC N2 ramp, CoWoS packaging, and ABF substrate expansion.

4. UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q25 Revenue Is Projected to Decline 5–10% QoQ.

By Patrick Liao

• United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) – 2025 Full-Year and 4Q Outlook.   
• The impact of U.S. recent restrictions on United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) appears negligible.
• Customer demand trends are diverging in 2H25, and overall demand is expected to soften in 4Q25.

5. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Has Raised Wafer Prices; Rapidus Provides 2nm Milestone.

By Patrick Liao

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) has raised wafer prices, with 2nm wafers expected to cost at least 50% more—exceeding USD 30,000 per wafer.   
• Rapidus plans to begin 2nm engineering production in 1Q26 and target mass production by 2027, likely one node behind TSMC.
• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) is expected to be ready for iPhone 17 production.

6. Taiwan Tech Weekly: SEMICON Taiwan Just Started; TSMC August Sales Soar; 2026 to Be Year of Edge AI?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC August Revenue +34% YoY: AI Demand Remains the Key Driver
• ARM Pushes Edge AI Forward with New “Lumex” Chip Designs — 2026 Could Be a Major Growth Year for Edge AI
• From AI Packaging to AI Edge: Listed Names to Watch at SEMICON Taiwan 2025 Starting Today

7. From AI Packaging to AI Edge: Listed Names to Watch at SEMICON Taiwan 2025 Starting Today

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Defining themes: Packaging, edge AI, and silicon photonics dominate SEMICON Taiwan 2025
• Global heavyweights Applied Materials, Lam, and TEL anchor this year’s industry sponsorship
• Taiwan’s next tier — Zhen Ding, ASE, Advantech, ASPEED, Egis — showcase critical AI enablers beyond TSMC

8. Hitachi Ltd. (6501 JP): Short and Long Term Benefit from New U.S. Investments

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

• More than $1 billion to be invested in electric power equipment and railway car production, plus a new automation center, to counter tariffs and support long-term expansion in the U.S.
• The rising share of sales accounted for by smart factory and other digital technologies should lead to higher profit margins and ROIC over the next several years. 
• The share price has dropped 13% from its recent high to 26x EPS guidance for FY Mar-26. Buy on weakness for long-term growth. The main risk is a slowing economy.

9. Intel (INTC.US): Who Will Adopt Intel’s 14A Technology?

By Patrick Liao

• Why does Intel Corp (INTC US)’s current CFO state “Intel will use TSMC basically forever”? 
• From Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)’s perspective, they have always maintained a “no competition with customers” principle.  
• Another question remains: who will adopt Intel’s 14A technology in 2027-28?  

10. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Extreme Level; ASE Spread Hits Parity; ChipMOS Near Long Level

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +24.4% Premium: Remains at Level to Short the ADR Spread
• ASE: 0.0% (Parity); Open Fresh Longs Here or at a Discount
• ChipMOS: -1.9% Discount; Near Level to Go Long the Spread

1. Samsung’s Intel Gambit: A Signal of TSMC’s Widening Lead

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Samsung’s potential Intel stake highlights need for packaging know-how, not customers, and provides a hedge if its 2nm yields or production slip.
• TSMC extends lead with stable N3, on-track N2, AI packaging dominance, and customer migrations, while Samsung’s foundry share declines below 8%.
• Implications: Positive for TSMC (2330 TT), negative signal for Samsung (005930 KS), validating for Intel (INTC US) though regulatory and governance constraints remain important.

2. Nidec (6594 JP): Wait for Hard Numbers

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

• Nidec dropped 22% on Thursday following management’s decision to establish an independent committee to investigate accounting irregularities. It bounced back nearly 5% on Friday, but finished the week down 20%.
• In June, the Company received approval to postpone submitting its FY Mar-25 securities report until September 26. In July, it released incomplete 1Q results while postponing full disclosure.
• Without correct numbers, we can only guess at the full impact of the accounting irregularities and their effect on management. 

3. Intel (INTC.US): Qualcomm CEO Has Publicly Stated that Intel’s Technology Is Still Not Competitive.

By Patrick Liao

• Intel Corp (INTC US) has not given up on Intel Foundry Service (IFS), even though it currently lacks any sizable clients.
• We are puzzled as to why Intel former CEO Pat Gelsinger insisted on entering the foundry market, which has so far weakened Intel’s financials without generating meaningful returns.
• Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) CEO has publicly stated that Intel’s manufacturing technology is still not competitive.

4. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at Historically Extreme Level; ASE Bounces Off Parity

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: 26.2% Premium; Historically Extreme Level to Open Fresh Short of the Spread
• UMC: +1.0% Premium: Wait for More Extreme Level Before Going Long or Short
• ASE: +2.7% Premium; Open Fresh Longs of ADR Spread Closer to Parity

1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Spike Opportunity; ASE Hard Bounce to Prem from Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +25.6% Premium: Latest Spike is Opportunity to Short the ADR Spread
• UMC: +2.0% Premium; Near Level to Go Short the ADR Spread
• ASE: +5.1% Premium; Good Level to Take Profits on Previous Long Since Parity

2. Intel (INTC.US): Intel–U.S. Government Equity Deal: Implications and Industry Perspective

By Patrick Liao

• Intel has reached an agreement with the U.S. government, under which Washington will invest $8.9bn for a 9.9% equity stake in the company.  
• Intel benefits from the optics of government backing, which could help sentiment and prevent downside pressure on the stock in the short term, i.e. near-term optics positive, fundamentals unchanged. 
• TSMC’s Japan and Germany fabs were structured through co-investments and partnerships, with equity involvement only when tied to technology access (e.g., Sony CMOS JV). 

3. Taiwan Teck Weekly: Apple Snags Over Half of TSMC’s Best Chips; Long-Reasoning AI Will Surge Compute

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Apple Secures Over Half of TSMC’s Cutting-Edge 2nm Capacity; How TSMC Anchors Apple’s Product Leadership Strategy
• NVIDIA Results Key Take-Away: Long-Reasoning AI Models Driving Massive Compute Demand
• Intel (INTC.US): Intel–U.S. Government Equity Deal: Implications and Industry Perspective 

4. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains Elevated; ASE Drops Down to Near Parity

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +21.8% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Fresh Short of the Spread
• UMC: -0.6% Discount; Wait for More Extreme ADR Spread Level
• ASE: +0.4% Premium; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread

5. Silergy (6415.TT): 3Q25 Revenue Flat to Slightly Up QoQ; Annual Growth May Fall Short of 20%+.

By Patrick Liao

• 3Q25: Revenue flat to slightly up QoQ; GM stable at 52–54%. FY25: Prior 20%+ growth target unlikely to be achieved; weaker demand due to trade war & customer conservatism.
• No evidence of significant market share loss; instead, delayed demand.  
• Automotive Ssegment continues to trend upward with new EV-related products. Competition in China is intense, especially EVs, but pricing remains rational.

1. Intel Snags $2 Billion From SoftBank. What Now?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Intel just announced that SoftBank has agreed to buy $2 billion worth of Intel stock, details here. 
• The shares are likely newly issued, meaning dilution of existing shareholders. Markets didn’t care and shares rose >5% in after hours trading. 
• $2 billion is a far cry from the $40 billion former CEO Craig Barrett thinks Intel needs. Could this be the first of similar deals with US semiconductor/technology companies?

2. CHIPS Act Money For Equity Stake, Pay For China Play? For Goodness Sake!

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that the US Administration is pursuing a strategy of converting CHIPS Act funding into equity stakes with Intel acting as its guinea pig
• It seems clear that Mr. Lutnick is bent on applying the same formula with other beneficiaries of US CHIPs Act funding
• CHIPs Act Dollars for Equity, Pay For China Play may seem like innovative ideas but in reality they are a slippery slope to confusion & chaos. Who or what’s next?

3. Intel (INTC.US): SoftBank Buys $2bn of Intel Stock at $23; U.S. Government Considers Investment.

By Patrick Liao

• Monetary support may temporarily ease Intel’s current financial difficulties, but the ultimate solution lies in securing technical support from manufacturing.  
• We remain curious how the U.S. government will devise a solution for Intel if the company ultimately cannot provide the necessary support for U.S. Fabless players.
• We are bearish on Intel Corp (INTC US)’s current position and do not believe financial support alone can help the company overcome its challenges.

4. SUMCO Q225. Operating Profit Tanks As Depreciation Soars

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• SUMCO reported Q225 revenues of ¥102.9 billion, flat sequentially and roughly 3% higher than guidance.
• Operating profit of ¥1.5 billion was also slightly better than the forecasted breakeven, but dramatically down from its peak of ¥30.2 billion in Q322.
• A projected further increase in depreciation charges for the current quarter is forecasted to drive operating profit to negative ¥3.5 billion. Yikes!

5. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2nm Production Schedule in US Could Be One Year Ahead of Previous Schedule.

By Patrick Liao

• TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei previously emphasized that customer demand for 2nm technology surpasses that for 3nm, and the company is actively working to expand production capacity. 
• For 2nm technology, we expect production to take place at the Tainan fab, ahead of the U.S. Arizona fab and earlier than the previously anticipated 2028 timeline.
• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)’s next generation 2nm development is actively progressing.

6. Intel’s Historic Agreement Or Moment Of Surrender?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Intel has agreed to convert US CHIPs Act funding (past & future) & Secure Enclave contracts into a 10% equity stake for the US Administration.
• The equity stake will comprise 433.3 million primary shares of Intel common stock at a price of $20.47 per share, a roughly 16% discount to their market value yesterday
• In his commentary on the deal, President Trump referred to Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan as a victim, stating he came to the White House to save his job. Wow!

7. A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan’s UMC

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• A major Intel balance sheet boost, backed by SoftBank, the U.S. government, and leading institutions, would enhance the company’s capacity to make bold bets on regaining global chip manufacturing leadership.
• UMC’s market valuation is less than the capex for just one advanced fab. Intel would likely make a gain on its investment since it would cause UMC shares to rally.
• For less than the cost of a single advanced fab, a large company could acquire UMC and gain chipmaking expertise approaching TSMC’s level; boosting returns across an entire fab network.

8. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s US Fabs On a Roll; Why Intel Should Invest in UMC; The Big SPE Reset

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC’s Tale of Two Fabs: Arizona’s Surprise Upside vs. Kumamoto’s Challenges
• A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan’s UMC
• SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem