Daily Brief Australia: Lynas Corp Ltd, Freelancer Ltd, Global Traffic Network and more

• China recently escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths. Not just to the US as the two global players go toe-to-toe on tariffs; but to all countries.
• China’s latest round of restrictions target critical materials used in defense, electronics, and EVs.
• Apart from China, the world’s largest refining – not just the largest miner – who else refines rare earth elements, specifically heavy rare earths?

After reporting positive momentum in Q424, Freelancer saw year-on-year growth in gross marketplace volume (GMV) and revenue in Q125 across both divisions. The company also generated positive operating profit and cash flow in the quarter. We view the adoption of AI (by Freelancer, by freelancers and by customers) and new integrations and partnerships within Escrow as key drivers of growth and profitability during our forecast period.

• GTN Limited (ASX:GTN) provides traffic information reports and cash compensation to radio and television stations, and in return gets a guaranteed number of commercial advertising spots adjacent to traffic, news and information reports.
• With material capital management flagged for later this calendar year, we think a capital return is the most likely option given a lack of franking credits for a special dividend.
• We look at a range of capital return amounts, including our base case for a $0.25/share capital return (or $49m in total) as this would result in a debt/EBITDA ratio around the peer average of 1.0x FY25f and fit within the current $35m banking facility.